Thursday, May 15, 2008

I'm getting antsy...

Seems some of the writers are turned now toward fantasy implications of the off season - not a lot, but more of them. And because I'm stumbling across them, I'm learning little gems here and there. Well, learning gems is subjective. It's mini-camp hype, actually, but it gets my juices flowing.

I want to do something, like start ranking players.

One thing about ranked lists, and I think I've blogged this before, is to remember that players should probably be grouped based on your projections for them. And even then, you have to account for intangibles.

For example, I consider both potential basements and ceilings in stats. If the player is, in my opinion, just as likely to be a bust as a superstar, I tend to rank them a few slots lower, potentially into a lower grouping.

I also tend to place a premium on consistency. I don't regret targeting TJ Houshmandzedah over Chad Johnson last year because of exactly what happened -TJ performed almost every week while Chad was all over the map. Similarly, if I have the top pick in a pick 'em league, I almost have to take LT, but then I am really anxious to get a 'solid' RB as my second back because LT for years has been up and down the fantasy scoreboard week to week.

And of course, I am in the beginnings of considering draft strategy. So far, I'm not thrilled with the top RB prospects. LT I just wrote about. Stephen Jackson was a huge disappointment last year and while it's not his fault, it does highlight the risk of picking him at the second or third spot he's currently ranked. Brian Westbrook exceeded my expectations last year, so I got that wrong, but the odds of him repeating that success is even slimmer next year and if I'm taking a back that high in the draft, I want to KNOW he's going to be a top-5 back. I guess that what it boils down to, I can't look at any of them except LT and convince myself they'll finish the year as a top-5 back.

So what am I looking at for a strategy? It's very early yet, but if I had to draft tomorrow, I'm leaning toward taking a QB in the first round and gambling on second tier RBs.

Well see how I feel when I put my rankings together.

No comments: