Neither Carolina Nor Chicago Take QB

from Foxsports:

Jake Delhomme is coming off serious elbow surgery and backup Matt Moore started three games as a 2007 college free agent. Yet the Panthers appear to have faith in both by not addressing the position.

Plus, embattled coach John Fox and general manager Marty Hurney might be worried whether they will still be around by the time a drafted quarterback is ready to play.

The Bears also stayed out of the quarterback market, content to enter the season Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton atop the depth chart. Good luck.

Top Drafted RBs

Raiders - draft McFadden, aka Run DMC, and cut Dominic Rhodes. They also have Justin Fargas, LaMont Jordan and Michael Bush. Rhodes helped the Colts win the 2006 Superbowl with 113 yds versus the Bears. I hate it for Michael Bush. Keep an eye on Rhodes to see where he lands as he might steal carries from someone.

The Mustard: Yes, I’d draft McFadden. The question is where. Honestly, I hate counting on rookies, but it looks like Oakland last year, despite using multiple runners, pretty much focused on giving one guy 20+ carries in any given game. I’d bet that back is McFadden all year. He’s an RB1, probably low end because we don’t know if Fargas or Bush will get the goal line carries.

Panthers – Jonathan Stewart, pick 13.

The Mustard: No way am I taking Deangelo Williams now. I was thinking 1000-1200 yards and 5-10 TDs despite the cutting of DeShaun Foster and the new O-Line. Now, Jonathan Stewart looks to be at least RBBC if not the bell cow. Gamble on Stewart late maybe.

Cowboys – Felix Jones, pick 22. Dang it, I am forced to like Marion Barber a little less.

The Mustard: Keep your projection for Barber at about last year’s stats though I think Felix Jones may cut a lot into his carries, maybe even more than Julius Jones did.

Steelers – Rashard Mendenhall, pick 23. What the heck?!?! Willie Parker was one of the few non-RBBC RBs left in the NFL but I don’t see that happening with the Steelers having to justify the salary of their #1 pick. Mendenhall is supposed to be pretty good.

The Mustard: I’m afraid I don’t know how to predict this just yet and would avoid both if I had to draft today.

Titans – Chris Johnson, pick 24. Who the heck is Chris Johnson? The analysis I have in front of me says he works best in space and is very fast, a la Reggie Bush except from East Carolina.

The Mustard: As a fantasy drafter, I think this guys is worth a gamble. It’s not like LenDale White is setting the world on fire with just five 100 yard games despite being ‘the man’ most of last year. Between this pick and Alge Crumpler, I expect Tennessee will have more of a spread option look this year. I’d like to gamble on Vince Young, too.

Chicago – Matt Forte, pick 44. Who? 6’2”, 222 lbs, 4.45 40, high marks in the shuffles at the combine. Compared to Edgerrin James and Mewelde Moore.

The Mustard: As with the Titans’ draft pick, Forte is worth gambling on because the incumbent, in this case, Cedrick Benson, isn’t much to write home about. Remind me to examine what the Bears have done for their offense, but Forte might be a late-rounder or a $2 auction player that makes you look genius. The best part is if he doesn’t pan out, it’s not like you drafted him to start.

Baltimore – Ray Rice, pick 55. At least I recognize the name. Rice is a little small at 5’8” and 199, but the Ravens are obviously expecting him to complement McGahee.

The Mustard: I’d think McGahee keeps most of his carries. No major concerns from me.

Lions – Kevin Smith – first pick of the third round. They traded up to get him with the first pick of the second day. The commentators say teams assess the night of the first day and a lot of times scramble at the top of the draft the second day to get the ones that ‘slipped through the cracks’. Translation: The Lions think Smith might be a steal.

The Mustard: Another kid to watch. There’re enough questions about Smith – his measurables at the combine and the competition he faced in C-USA at Central Florida, for examples – that I think Kevin Jones will probably stay the lead rusher in Detroit – not that that has meant much for the last 3 years.

Top Drafted QBs

I 'watched' some of the draft and read some about it, but I'm still a long way from digesting it. That said, here are my notes on QBs:

Atlanta – Matt Ryan. Assuming that Glenn Dorsey ia all that and assuming Brian Brohm, Chad Henne or Joe Flacco are almost as good as Ryan, I would rather have seen the Birds take Dorsey and then take a QB at the top of second. Atlanta obviously thought Ryan was a cut above the other QBs in this year’s or next year’s.

Packers – brought in Culpepper. Drafted Brian Brohm in the 2^nd. Rodgers was a 1^st round pick in 2005. Pack also took Matt Flynn in the 7^th. They also have Jerry Babb and Dalton Bell, neither with an NFL pass to their name. Sound a little nervous to me, but Rodgers has looked good in limited playing time. He was 20 of 28 last year for 218 yards, a TD and no INTs. Small sample size, but nice sample.

Ravens – Drafted Joe Flacco, trading up to get him in the first. I never heard his name until the combine but I assume NFL scouts know how to research players and the Ravens weren’t the only team high on Flacco.

Miami drafted Chad Henne in the 2nd to compete with John Beck – a 2^nd round pick last year – and Josh McCown. Miami also drafted LT Jake Long.

Minnesota drafted John David Booty in the 5^th to compete with Tarvaris Jackson. I think the Vikes are more hoping that Booty is a steal than they are worried about Jackson.

The Mustard: They’re rookie QBs. Don’t count on them this year and probably not next. I might gamble on Rodgers or Jackson to keep their starting jobs and put up respectable numbers. Of the two, I think Rodgers has the better chance to be a top 12 QB because of the players around him.

Pre-Draft Flurries

PacMan Is Now Jerry Jones' Headache

The Titans offloaded CB PacMan Jones to Dallas, leaving me to wonder if Jerry Jones is the new Al Davis. Although I have to admit, he rehabbed Terrell Owens. Just as soon as Bill Parcells was gone, at least.

I doubt Jones has 'got it' and suspect he'll be out of the NFL sooner than later, but surely his handlers will keep him out of trouble for most of this season. I think.

If I read the article correctly, it appears Dallas is giving up a 4th round pick this year and a 4th round pick next year. If Jones is not reinstated this year, then Dallas will get the Titan's 4th round pick next year. So there's little risk and lots of upside for the Cowboys. The Titans are rid of a PR nightmare. Win-Win.

The Mustard: You'll know long before the fantasy draft, but upgrade Dallas' D assuming PacMan is reinstated. Dallas' D was 29th overall last year, but 10th in DVOA - a statistical analysis technique used by FootballOutsiders.com - and was 4th in Yahoo fantasy football last year. They could be special this year and perhaps underrated.

'Hawks Cut Alexander

The Mustard: I once drafted Julius Jones with the fifth spot in the draft and ruined my fantasy football team that year as a result. Maurice Morris is still around and isn't too shabby of a back. Don't jump on either Morris or Jones. I'd probably gamble on Morris right now if I was in a spot that I could afford to roll the dice on an RB.

Vikings Acquire DE Allen

He's 26 and had 15 1/2 sacks last year. The Vikings were the #2 defense in fantasy football last year without him. He'll add sacks and QB pressures, which helps the passing defense, including interceptions. The Vikes will likely give up fewer points as a result.

The Mustard: Duh. Upgrade Minnesota. #1 defense this year? Maybe but take a look at their schedule first. Downgrade KC, but you weren't going to draft their defense anyway, were you?

Chad Johnson Saga

No developments, but the headlines say Marvin Lewis is calling Chad's bluff and inviting him to sit out.

If there is any mustard here, it is that something isn't right in Cincy. Everybody's a head case. Oh, and remember the name Kenny Irons. I'm not saying draft him, but if Rudi gets hurt...

Miami Signs Jake Long

Miami Inks #1 Pick

Michigan tackle Jake Long is going to be a Dolphin. So who does this bode well for?

I wrote last year that Ronnie Brown deserved better than the Dolphins offense and given a new OC, he proved me right. I'd have to look back at my old posts for details, but I seem to recall he was the top RB in fantasy football for a couple of weeks after he was placed in IR. He was doing that well. Enter ACL reconstruction in late October. That's bad news, but you know that if you follow fantasy football. Ronnie Brown will not be the same Ronnie Brown he was last year.

And honestly, I have no idea what the Fins are going to do at QB and WR and with the rest of their line to help get that ship righted. Their FA WRs are Tab Perry, David Kirkus and Ernest Wilford. That groups is not going to scare anyone. Last year's first round pick Ted Ginn Jr. is still widely criticized but maybe he'll improve this year. Their QBs are Josh McCown and John Beck, last year's second round draft pick. Unless Beck is a dream come true for Parcells, the Fins got nothing scary at QB.

The Mustard: Oy. Watch where Brown is going and see if you can get him late in the fourth or after. He'll likley improve as the year goes on, both from regained confidence in his knee and Jake Long's growth, but I would not want to depend on him as my RB2 early in the season. I'd love to have him on my bench for late-season boost.

Avoid everything else in Miami.

Can Michael Vick Go Away, Please?

This has ZERO fantasy football relevance, but as an Atlanta resident, I want to know why people are still wearing jerseys with the name of a convicted felon, liar and dog killer on them. I can almost understand at the game - it's still Falcons colors at least - but just to walk around in on the weekend?

I should try find where all the Vick jerseys went and buy them. I bet I could sell them like hotcakes in this city.

Ogden To Retire

Ah, here's news I missed.

If LT Jonathan Ogden retires, it certainly puts a damper on McGahee's prospects. As my friend the Bombers criticizes, McGahee is always looking for the home run and not the tough yards. The tackle is obviously key to McGahee's prospects of getting outside.

After Midnight...

From Foxnews.com:

"Officers working security tried to clear a crowd from the parking lot of the Cloud 9 club after it closed at 3 a.m. Sunday. The 27-year-old Keith and several others refused to leave and were laughing, dancing and joking, police said.

Police eventually ordered them to put their hands on a vehicle, but Keith refused and took out a cell phone to record the incident, according to an Indianapolis police report.

He kept saying, "I'm a Colts player, I'm a Colts player," the report said."

I've not been doing the players behaving badly bit and I don't mean to pick on Kenton Keith when there are more deserving targets - oh, I dunno, Chris Henry for example - but it's remarkable because the second I saw this headline, I thought, this happened in the early hours of the morning and sure enough, it was 3 a.m.

Very little good and wholesome happens at 3 a.m. unless you're in the special forces, which means it's prime mission time because normal people are asleep soundly at 3 a.m.

Just in case anyone aspiring to be a pro athlete ever reads this - go home at 10 or 11. If you just have to party after midnight - do it at home. On second thought, you're being paid to be a finely tuned athlete. Maybe you don't need to party at all. Just a thought.

Goodbye Steve McNair

McNair Calls It A Career

According to Yahoo, Steve McNair will retire.

He wasn't a real fantasy factor anyway. And neither is Kyle Boller, who started 8 games last year for the Ravens. The Ravens are now definitely hurting at QB, but they need a WR, too. And a TE.

The Mustard: Derrick Mason, no spring chicken at 33, can't possibly be helped by the prospect of a rookie signal caller. Mark Clayton had only half as many catches and half as many yards. McGahee, on the other hand, I think will have a better year - the O-Line is still good I think and McGahee can catch so he'll be the relief valve for whoever lines up under center.

I Can Haz Draft Now? NO!!

Good Bye Bryant

Starting in October, I think it was, things got really hectic for me at work. It's still hectic, but there are days, like today, where I spend long periods of time waiting for someone else to finish something so I can do my thing. In theory, I suppose I could work on a spreadsheet or something, but dang it, I'm pretty much a procrastinator. No excuses, just fact. I work best under pressure. Without pressure, I get bored and make more mistakes anyway, I think.

In case you're still reading, my poorly introduced point is this: I've been bored searching for NFL news and other than an assorted player being bad and speculation about the draft, the big news is that Bryant Gumbel is not going to do play-by-play for the NFL Network.

I'm not hating on the man. He could be a great human being, but the one game I saw last year with Gumbel and Collinsworth (It was Collinsworth, right?) was AWFUL. I turned the sound off they were so bad. They weren't even talking about football for goodness' sake but if memory serves it was Brittney Spears or something just as unrelated to football and just as unimportant in general.

And that, my friends, is all that I think has happened of any real news value in what seems like an eternity. For those of you fortunate enough to have the NFL Network at home - you are officially spared from watching Bryant Gumbel.

Oh yeah, Oakland Has TWO RBs

I didn't think they were going to draft McFadden anyway because Justin Fargas emerged and they don't 'need' a running back. Then I read Adam Schein reminding us of Michael Bush, RB, Oakland Raiders.

At this time last year, Bush was was a draft story because he was once highly touted but suffered an injury and his draft stock declined. Oakland took him at the top of the fourth round. A teammate said recently to Schein, "We want him to be the best-kept secret in the NFL. He's healthy. He's the next Brandon Jacobs with his power and speed."

The Mustard: Even if the Raiders don't take McFadden, Fargas' value looks to take a hit. However, Fargas still has low name recognition so unless the magazines pimp him in their rankings, his value is not going to be too high anyway. Ironically, it's people smart enough to do their own research who might remember Fargas. And if they forgot about Bush... they might think they're getting a steal when they're getting just another RBBC back.


You are now free to return to draft day speculation

Will Miami actually draft Jake Long, or is it a ruse? Will Atlanta take Dorsey or will St. Louis? And why is St. Louis' second overall draft pick mentioned less often than Atlanta's third pick? Will Oakland...

Stolen News

It's not plagiarism if I attribute the the source. So, here are some gems I'm lifting from the offseason newsletter by footballguys.com:

Mare In Seattle, Brown in St. Louis

The Seahawks signed kicker Olindo Mare, a free agent who was released by New Orleans in February. Mare is a 12-year NFL veteran and will be one option in Seattle's search for a replacement for Josh Brown, the kicker who left the Seahawks to sign with St. Louis on the first day of free agency.

Kicker news is not usually worth too much, but we do need to know where they are at least.

I'm not sure Mare, who was a backup last year and released, is an answer for Seattle, but their kicker is worth something as the Seahawks were 10th in points scored, 9th in yards and 7th in FG attempts. I'm not sure yet whether they've improved this offseason, but I doubt they'll fall far.

St. Louis, on the other hand, was 28th in points and 24th in yards. But wait, they were 11th in field goal attempts! I believe their offense will improve. They were 10th in points and 6th in yards two years ago. The question is whether that helps or hurts the kicker and I think it's obvious the number of attempts are out of line for the offensive production so if the Rams score more this year, it will decrease the the FG attempts.

The Mustard: Brown has was 8th in FG made last year. Someone is probably going to draft him but you want to take him late if at all. He's moving to a team that may not allow him as many opportunities to kick. As for Mare, if he wins the starting job and if you think Seattle is going to stay the same or improve on offense, he may be a draft day steal.

Isaac Bruce To Niners

In a move that reunites him with former head coach Mike Martz, free-agent wide receiver Isaac Bruce, released by St. Louis this week after 14 seasons with the Rams, has signed a two-year contract with the San Francisco 49ers.

Okay, I guess you have to part ways with expensive 14 year veteran WRs sooner or later, but after Bruce, who had 55 receptions to Holt's 93, the next WR on the list (Bennett) had 33.

The Mustard: This team got hit hard by injuries last year and though a few weeks ago I was really down on their 08 prospects, I'm starting to think rebound. Still, this is a question mark for Bulger and the passing game. Keep a ceiling on your expectations for Bulger and to a lesser extent Holt. I think Drew Bennett is good enough to keep defenses honest, so Holt's production shouldn't drop much, but overall Bulger's probably will not match 2006, making him a middle of the road QB and not elite like some may be tempted to draft him.

Tons o' Stuff

Cadillac To Warm Bench?

An article here states that Cadillac Williams may not be ready until this time next year.

The Mustard: Williams, obviously, should not be on your draft board at RB. If you take him, you're really gambling. So Earnest Graham is a steal right? He did get 900 and 10 plus 324 receiving in 10 starts last year. Wohoo! But wait. That was without Warrick Dunn on the roster. This situation has RBBC all over it. I think Dunn, at his age, but with his blocking and receiving skills will be the 3rd down back with plenty of extra snaps thrown in. This limits Graham, though Graham is probably still the back on the roster most likely to produce.

Pacman To Dallas?

Not yet, but the Titans are insane for not taking any deal to get Pacman off their roster. Dallas' offer is thought to be a 4th or 5th round draft pick.

The Mustard: As much as I want to see people like Pacman either straighten up or ship out (and he's apparently not ready to admit he has a problem), I have to admit he would bolster the Dallas D provided Goodell ever lets him see the field again.

Orlando Pace To Return

An article here predicts Pace will return to the Rams this year. Pace missed most or all of last year. The same article also makes a wish that the Vikings will trade their disgruntled center and discusses the Rams O-line personnel and signings in general. Good read.

The Mustard: That would be good news. If the Rams get the center from Minnesota, that would be better news. If the Rams take Jake Long in the draft, then we can argue Steven Jackson will be a potential top 5 fantasy back.

McNabb To Be Traded?

Not according to McNabb. See here.

Football Outsiders Covers The Offseason

Footballoutsiders.com has some good articles breaking down free agency moves and upcoming draft needs division by division and team by team. See here. I've read some and will definitely go back closer to the season to being nailing down my fantasy rankings.

Look, Y'all! A Mock Fantasy Draft!

It is way too early for this stuff.

It's also way too easy to pick on his choices. But it occurs to me that I have no idea who my top 10 are let alone my top few rounds. Like I said, it's way too early for mock fantasy drafts.

You probably know I'm starting to go back and forth on when it's a good idea to take a QB, but I have to say I am surprised to see Tom Brady at third overall.

Adrian Peterson second seems like a good choice, but isn't Minnesota losing a LT? All his yards came to the left, I believe. Bad juju.

Steven Jackson at 5th? The man has skills, but that team... and last year...

Willie Parker not even in the first round, but 16th? So he only got two TDs, that has to improve, right?

Jamal Lewis at 24th would be a steal.