From the saved files... I was apparently working in this in week three and never posted it. So here it is, unedited, as a snapshop of what I was thinking at that point.
(Hey, it backdated to September, although it's nearly Christmas.)
There are some things that stand out to me after week three.
Man, do I feel like a genius for not having any Saints on my fantasy teams. I also feel good about taking chances on Minnesota and Green Bay. But on all three of these, I don't recall blogging my POV.
I did blog about some others though...
I was right on Leinart. I hope you avoided drafting him.
I was right on the Bills players. I got Lynch at a value for one team but anyone expecting #1 play from Lynch, Lee Evans or JP Losman are as disappointed as I thought they'd be.
My Kitna rankings look right on. He's leading the league in yardage and is 5th or 6th overall on Yahoo right now.
I was wrong on Reggie Brown. He's not ready to be a #1 WR and maybe that's McNabb's fault.
I was wrong on McNabb too. Despite the fact he was on my do not draft unless he falls way too far list, I still had him ranked too high. This weekend's stats are a fluke due to some incredibly poor coverage on the part of Detroit.
I was wrong on Steven Jackson, too. I think he'll bounce back some after returning from his groin injury, but the loss of the OT and the injuries to and depletion of the St. Louis WR corps are too much for the Rams to overcome.
I was wrong on Grossman. He shows flashes of brilliance, but I think something's just wrong between his ears.
The jury is out but signs are good for Ronnie Brown and Carnell Williams. Both should be values at their average draft position when all is said and done.
The jury is out but signs are good for Thomas Jones. His first couple games were against stout defenses. He run for more than 100 last week. That should be more the norm.
The jury is out on Cutler. He isn't as good as some were saying, but he's not as inconsistent as I was thinking he would be either.
The jury is out on Brandon Jacobs. "That didn't take long," the Bombers told me after Jacobs got hit in the knee. I'm still thinking it was a fluke that could have happened to anyone. When he comes back, if he gets 5o yards and a TD a game, I'll consider this a good mid-round pick. Unfortunately, the Giants are about to implode. That can't be good for any of them.
The jury is out on the New England D. I got nervous about my previously number 1 ranked defense a couple weeks before the season. There were some injuries and I didn't like the 'vibes' I was getting from the media. But they have played very well at times and they're the #7 Yahoo defense, good for about 3 points per game difference from the #2 defense, Pittsburgh.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Week 1 Fantasy Team Recap
I copied all my starting rosters into a spreadsheet, looked up the Yahoo default scoring system points for each player and formatted everything all nice and pretty to show you. I just can't figure out how to get an Excel worksheet into an image file of some sort to be able to insert it here.
The executive summary is this:
1) the Redskins team, consisting primarily of Redskins players, stunk in week one;
2) two teams that drafted QB first had mixed results and the difference is that the better team focused on studs at other positions, taking the 'dregs' left to it at RB (DOWN WITH THE STUD RB LAW!!!);
3) the autodraft teams, where I signed up and walked away, actually performed well, though I think due to some unusual fortunes;
4) my two RB/best available teams were average and poor. I blame the poorer of the two performances on the fact that I doggedly used the nfl.com default rankings to draft my starting lineup, and finally;
5) the two teams I care about performed very well - this includes an auction drafted team and a pick 'em drafted team.
Some interesting details:
I drafted all Redskins because I was in a league once that was won by guy who drafted all Packers. This exercise is largely academic - you have to hit the right team on the right year to have a chance. I should have tried this with the Steelers, but never got around to it.
My highest scoring team, 116 points, was an autodraft on Foxsports. I don't expect that to continue. I mean, do you really think Burress will score 32 every week? This team also had Romo, who scored 35, and Mcgahee, who scored 10. Everyone else scored less than 10 points.
In order to test the Geezur's point about not sticking to drafting a stud RB in the first round, I drafted two teams just prior to kickoff last week, taking QB and WR first and second on both of them. The team with Peyton Manning scored just 79 points. HOWEVER the team with Tom Brady scored 111. The reason the Brady team is better, I believe, is because I went after studs at other positions and selected the consolation RBs, Lynch and Brandon Jackon, both of whom actually performed pretty well. On the Peyton led team, I tried harder to get running backs and the studs at other slots were taken before I could get them. For week one, at least, the lesson is if you aren't sure the best available RB is a stud, take a stud at another slot.
Observations on my players:
With Brandon Jacobs injured, four of my rosters are impacted. I have decent backups available, such as Tatum Bell or Ronnie Brown, but they don't have the ceiling that I envisioned for Jacobs. The next four or five weeks I'll be limping at RB on a few teams.
I am very pleased that TO, Chad Johnson and Reggie Wayne, who are on a lot of my teams, lived up to my expectations.
I am very disappointed in Deion Branch and Reggie Brown, both of whom I frequently counted on to be steals at the WR3 and WR4 draft slots.
Chris Cooley also let me down - he's the TE on the two teams I most care about. I was looking for value at the TE and letting people take the bigger named TEs, hoping that after Gates, there were a pile of TEs, including Cooley, who are all pretty much interchangeable. If Cooley continues this trend, there will be some butt cheek clenching going on. If does pick it up to the Shockey/Heap/Winslow level, I'll be ahead of the game. The good news is that I have Witten on my auction team. If Witeen keeps it up, that team will be way ahead of the curve at TE.
Vernon Davis, ditto what I said about Cooley. My expectations weren't as high, but he's on a couple of my teams as the top TE.
Kitna, so far, is a steal.
Romo, who I had to take after losing Kitna on my main Yahoo team to a coworker, is also so far a pleasant choice. We all know he CAN make throws, but we all saw him melt down late last year, so Romo wasn't on anyone's short list for a QB1.
New England, about like I started to fear just before the season started, didn't perform well. Thankfully I played the matchups for my auction team and started Pittsburgh, who netted me 20 points compared with the 6 New England would have scored for me.
The executive summary is this:
1) the Redskins team, consisting primarily of Redskins players, stunk in week one;
2) two teams that drafted QB first had mixed results and the difference is that the better team focused on studs at other positions, taking the 'dregs' left to it at RB (DOWN WITH THE STUD RB LAW!!!);
3) the autodraft teams, where I signed up and walked away, actually performed well, though I think due to some unusual fortunes;
4) my two RB/best available teams were average and poor. I blame the poorer of the two performances on the fact that I doggedly used the nfl.com default rankings to draft my starting lineup, and finally;
5) the two teams I care about performed very well - this includes an auction drafted team and a pick 'em drafted team.
Some interesting details:
I drafted all Redskins because I was in a league once that was won by guy who drafted all Packers. This exercise is largely academic - you have to hit the right team on the right year to have a chance. I should have tried this with the Steelers, but never got around to it.
My highest scoring team, 116 points, was an autodraft on Foxsports. I don't expect that to continue. I mean, do you really think Burress will score 32 every week? This team also had Romo, who scored 35, and Mcgahee, who scored 10. Everyone else scored less than 10 points.
In order to test the Geezur's point about not sticking to drafting a stud RB in the first round, I drafted two teams just prior to kickoff last week, taking QB and WR first and second on both of them. The team with Peyton Manning scored just 79 points. HOWEVER the team with Tom Brady scored 111. The reason the Brady team is better, I believe, is because I went after studs at other positions and selected the consolation RBs, Lynch and Brandon Jackon, both of whom actually performed pretty well. On the Peyton led team, I tried harder to get running backs and the studs at other slots were taken before I could get them. For week one, at least, the lesson is if you aren't sure the best available RB is a stud, take a stud at another slot.
Observations on my players:
With Brandon Jacobs injured, four of my rosters are impacted. I have decent backups available, such as Tatum Bell or Ronnie Brown, but they don't have the ceiling that I envisioned for Jacobs. The next four or five weeks I'll be limping at RB on a few teams.
I am very pleased that TO, Chad Johnson and Reggie Wayne, who are on a lot of my teams, lived up to my expectations.
I am very disappointed in Deion Branch and Reggie Brown, both of whom I frequently counted on to be steals at the WR3 and WR4 draft slots.
Chris Cooley also let me down - he's the TE on the two teams I most care about. I was looking for value at the TE and letting people take the bigger named TEs, hoping that after Gates, there were a pile of TEs, including Cooley, who are all pretty much interchangeable. If Cooley continues this trend, there will be some butt cheek clenching going on. If does pick it up to the Shockey/Heap/Winslow level, I'll be ahead of the game. The good news is that I have Witten on my auction team. If Witeen keeps it up, that team will be way ahead of the curve at TE.
Vernon Davis, ditto what I said about Cooley. My expectations weren't as high, but he's on a couple of my teams as the top TE.
Kitna, so far, is a steal.
Romo, who I had to take after losing Kitna on my main Yahoo team to a coworker, is also so far a pleasant choice. We all know he CAN make throws, but we all saw him melt down late last year, so Romo wasn't on anyone's short list for a QB1.
New England, about like I started to fear just before the season started, didn't perform well. Thankfully I played the matchups for my auction team and started Pittsburgh, who netted me 20 points compared with the 6 New England would have scored for me.
Monday, September 10, 2007
Hold The Phone
Don't panic!
Yeah, someone in one of my leagues made SIX roster moves during the games Sunday too. Yeah, he got all the hot waiver wire picks. On the flip side, he dropped Jerious Norwood - a relatively popular RB4 choice. Norwood didn't get a chance this weekend while Petrino kept feeding the ball to an ineffective Dunn. How long do you think that will happen? Not all season. Norwood will still get his chance. My point is, if someone is picking up all the one week wonders, they have to drop someone to do it with. Be the guy picking up the good players, not the guy dropping good players to pick up the one week wonder.
I have been pondering content during the season, now that our drafts are complete and the winning and losing has commenced.
Obviously, I planned on periodic updates on how my variously drafted fantasy teams are doing, but there are WAY too many sources of sit and start prognostication to attempt to compete with all of them. I will probably just try to bring out the gems worth commenting on.
Speaking of which - Derrick Ward, RB Giants, is probably already gone in most leagues. You can live without him, probably. Several of his next four or five games are going to be against stout defenses. On the other hand, he is going to be a starting RB for the next 3-5 weeks. Pick him up if you have room but be careful who drop. Remember that Jacobs is AT THE LEAST going to get the goal line carries when he comes back so Ward's upside is very limited.
As a Jacobs pimp, I have him on almost all of my rosters. Fortunately for me, my RB 4 in most leagues is Tatum Bell, who had a decent weekend for Detroit.
Yeah, someone in one of my leagues made SIX roster moves during the games Sunday too. Yeah, he got all the hot waiver wire picks. On the flip side, he dropped Jerious Norwood - a relatively popular RB4 choice. Norwood didn't get a chance this weekend while Petrino kept feeding the ball to an ineffective Dunn. How long do you think that will happen? Not all season. Norwood will still get his chance. My point is, if someone is picking up all the one week wonders, they have to drop someone to do it with. Be the guy picking up the good players, not the guy dropping good players to pick up the one week wonder.
I have been pondering content during the season, now that our drafts are complete and the winning and losing has commenced.
Obviously, I planned on periodic updates on how my variously drafted fantasy teams are doing, but there are WAY too many sources of sit and start prognostication to attempt to compete with all of them. I will probably just try to bring out the gems worth commenting on.
Speaking of which - Derrick Ward, RB Giants, is probably already gone in most leagues. You can live without him, probably. Several of his next four or five games are going to be against stout defenses. On the other hand, he is going to be a starting RB for the next 3-5 weeks. Pick him up if you have room but be careful who drop. Remember that Jacobs is AT THE LEAST going to get the goal line carries when he comes back so Ward's upside is very limited.
As a Jacobs pimp, I have him on almost all of my rosters. Fortunately for me, my RB 4 in most leagues is Tatum Bell, who had a decent weekend for Detroit.
The College Football Season Is Over
Sure, I know there are games left on the schedule, but the reality of college football is that the entire season is a playoff. Auburn lost one and barring some cosmic turn of events is not in the playing for the mythical national championship this year. The goal is now reduced to the SEC Championship - a task that at this time looks like a tough row to hoe.
I know the OL is young, but I do not believe that is the biggest problem on the team. Fifth year senior Brandon Cox, who I was really rooting for this year, has gotten in the habit of locking on to his primary receiver. It's amazing he hasn't thrown 12 interceptions by now. And I'm not yet willing to let Al Borges off the hook, although the play calling was better this weekend. It's his job to game plan to score points.
Wins over Florida and LSU would more than soothe my emotions but right now, I just don't have the confidence that that is going to happen. On the other hand - hey, Auburn has a long history of losing games it shouldn't and winning against ranked SEC opponents. Who knows.
One more thing - if Auburn does jettison Borges (long way from that decision, I know) I hope they bring in a more innovative OC that likes to score points. I know the SEC is a 'power' conference dominated by 'fast defenses', but until SEC schools start dropping 40 or more points on people week in and week out, we'll always seem less impressive in some pollsters' minds.
I know the OL is young, but I do not believe that is the biggest problem on the team. Fifth year senior Brandon Cox, who I was really rooting for this year, has gotten in the habit of locking on to his primary receiver. It's amazing he hasn't thrown 12 interceptions by now. And I'm not yet willing to let Al Borges off the hook, although the play calling was better this weekend. It's his job to game plan to score points.
Wins over Florida and LSU would more than soothe my emotions but right now, I just don't have the confidence that that is going to happen. On the other hand - hey, Auburn has a long history of losing games it shouldn't and winning against ranked SEC opponents. Who knows.
One more thing - if Auburn does jettison Borges (long way from that decision, I know) I hope they bring in a more innovative OC that likes to score points. I know the SEC is a 'power' conference dominated by 'fast defenses', but until SEC schools start dropping 40 or more points on people week in and week out, we'll always seem less impressive in some pollsters' minds.
Introducing - Joey
This column was previously known as the ”Jake Award” in mild irreverence to the former Denver & Arizona quarterback, Jake Plummer. Jake possessed immense skill but nothing between the ears to manifest the potential. He managed to squander leads, have amazing negative stats, and introduced us to the off-handed pass. Ahh, Jake we loved you. But time marches on and our dear Jake has retired (we hope for good). A new ‘talent’ has emerged to be the successor. He is “Joey”.
Joey Harrington has labored with lousy teams to this point, the Lions and the Dolphins. He has new life courtesy Michael Vick, with the Falcons. His smooth style, saying the right things to the press, and picture-perfect passing form has given him the title of Savior by the Falcon fans. It doesn’t hurt that he is not the focus of any type of federal investigation.
But, those who have watched our Joey and followed his career to this point are not fooled. There is a reason that every team he has played on, stank. Our Joey, our beloved Joey, is the ‘Joey’ winner this week. How fitting.
I watched Joey’s opening foray with much anticipation. Where would be the first disaster? I only waited for 7 minutes and 17 seconds. Joey officially completed 23 of 32 passes which is respectable. But the average yards per completion was 4.4 yards. I don’t think he would have to ice his arm after the game. But, wait! Joey had two touchdown passes! Oh, right, they were for the wrong team. Fortunately, the Vikings have room under the salary cap to pay Joey for the charge he put into the Vikings scoring machine. As for his own team, he managed only a measly 3 points for the Falcon offense.
Goodbye, Jake…..Welcome, Joey! It appears to be a wonderful, long, dire season for you and the Falcons. It should be fun to watch.
Joey Harrington has labored with lousy teams to this point, the Lions and the Dolphins. He has new life courtesy Michael Vick, with the Falcons. His smooth style, saying the right things to the press, and picture-perfect passing form has given him the title of Savior by the Falcon fans. It doesn’t hurt that he is not the focus of any type of federal investigation.
But, those who have watched our Joey and followed his career to this point are not fooled. There is a reason that every team he has played on, stank. Our Joey, our beloved Joey, is the ‘Joey’ winner this week. How fitting.
I watched Joey’s opening foray with much anticipation. Where would be the first disaster? I only waited for 7 minutes and 17 seconds. Joey officially completed 23 of 32 passes which is respectable. But the average yards per completion was 4.4 yards. I don’t think he would have to ice his arm after the game. But, wait! Joey had two touchdown passes! Oh, right, they were for the wrong team. Fortunately, the Vikings have room under the salary cap to pay Joey for the charge he put into the Vikings scoring machine. As for his own team, he managed only a measly 3 points for the Falcon offense.
Goodbye, Jake…..Welcome, Joey! It appears to be a wonderful, long, dire season for you and the Falcons. It should be fun to watch.
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
More quick hits
Still busy as all get out at work. When I get in the groove, it's all good, but as soon as I come up for air, it's hard to get started again. I'm in one of those places now...
1) Byron Leftwich has been released. I am surprised, but maybe that's because I haven't been watching the Jags this preseason. I prefer to use my time on teams that have relevance. Insult intended. However many games they win, the biggest fantasy implication is whether Maurice Jones-Drew is really worth his average draft position. With Fred Taylor being paid millions in guarantees not to retire, my guess is no.
There are a handful of places he could end up and the team most prominent right now is the most logical - Baltimore. Atlanta I think is out of the equation. I doubt they want Harrington looking over his shoulder. And Minnesota is surprisingly committed to Tarvarious Jackson. Here's hoping Leftwich takes a year holding the clipboard to get healthy and has a chance to win a starting job next year. I admire a plan that needs to be carried down the field by his lineman 'cause he's playing on a broken ankle or foot or whatever.
He's not fantasy material this year, probably not even if he gets the starting job somewhere. Neither is Garrard. The WRs in Jax stink.
2) I'm starting to get worried about the NE defense. Suspensions, players on the PUP. They should be okay this year because their offense should force opposing teams into desperation passing - a recipe for turnovers - but the amount of negative news on the defensive side of the ball appears to be mounting.
3) LJ Smith should be good for the Eagles. After being a hot commodity last year, he's dropped like a rock this year. Buy low. Get him as your TE2 or if you waited too long as your TE1. He should get between 600 and 700 yards and between 4-7 TDs. Hey, there was a time when that kind of TE production was highly sought after. It's still decent.
4)Lawrence Tynes is the Giants' starting kicker. You know you were wondering.
5) Randy Moss is going to be fine. He may miss a game or two and I'd sit him in week one if I had another option, just in case he's rusty. But I would have had another option had I drafted Moss.
6) Santonio Holmes is probably going to have a big part in the Steelers' offensive plans this year. He's a mid round WR that I like to consider. I don't recall if he's on any of my teams, but it if not it was a bye-week issue. I like him as a low WR3, high WR4 that just might blossom into a WR2.
7) Feel the Jacoby Jones love. The 3rd round rookie WR has impressed in Houston. There were no Houston games for me to watch on my cable system this year, but I hear good things about QB Matt Schaub. If Schaub succeeds as a starter and if Jones cracks the #2 job, he MIGHT be worth a pickup. Translation - watch him in week one and two.
8) The Oakland QB mess is almost as bad as the Browns. But while Quinn will probably be the starter by the end of the year (good news for Braylon Edwards owners), Jamarcus Russell is just today reported to be close on a contract and news outlets are contradicting each other on whether Culpepper or McCown will be the week 1 starter. Avoid all Browns and Oakland QBs.
1) Byron Leftwich has been released. I am surprised, but maybe that's because I haven't been watching the Jags this preseason. I prefer to use my time on teams that have relevance. Insult intended. However many games they win, the biggest fantasy implication is whether Maurice Jones-Drew is really worth his average draft position. With Fred Taylor being paid millions in guarantees not to retire, my guess is no.
There are a handful of places he could end up and the team most prominent right now is the most logical - Baltimore. Atlanta I think is out of the equation. I doubt they want Harrington looking over his shoulder. And Minnesota is surprisingly committed to Tarvarious Jackson. Here's hoping Leftwich takes a year holding the clipboard to get healthy and has a chance to win a starting job next year. I admire a plan that needs to be carried down the field by his lineman 'cause he's playing on a broken ankle or foot or whatever.
He's not fantasy material this year, probably not even if he gets the starting job somewhere. Neither is Garrard. The WRs in Jax stink.
2) I'm starting to get worried about the NE defense. Suspensions, players on the PUP. They should be okay this year because their offense should force opposing teams into desperation passing - a recipe for turnovers - but the amount of negative news on the defensive side of the ball appears to be mounting.
3) LJ Smith should be good for the Eagles. After being a hot commodity last year, he's dropped like a rock this year. Buy low. Get him as your TE2 or if you waited too long as your TE1. He should get between 600 and 700 yards and between 4-7 TDs. Hey, there was a time when that kind of TE production was highly sought after. It's still decent.
4)Lawrence Tynes is the Giants' starting kicker. You know you were wondering.
5) Randy Moss is going to be fine. He may miss a game or two and I'd sit him in week one if I had another option, just in case he's rusty. But I would have had another option had I drafted Moss.
6) Santonio Holmes is probably going to have a big part in the Steelers' offensive plans this year. He's a mid round WR that I like to consider. I don't recall if he's on any of my teams, but it if not it was a bye-week issue. I like him as a low WR3, high WR4 that just might blossom into a WR2.
7) Feel the Jacoby Jones love. The 3rd round rookie WR has impressed in Houston. There were no Houston games for me to watch on my cable system this year, but I hear good things about QB Matt Schaub. If Schaub succeeds as a starter and if Jones cracks the #2 job, he MIGHT be worth a pickup. Translation - watch him in week one and two.
8) The Oakland QB mess is almost as bad as the Browns. But while Quinn will probably be the starter by the end of the year (good news for Braylon Edwards owners), Jamarcus Russell is just today reported to be close on a contract and news outlets are contradicting each other on whether Culpepper or McCown will be the week 1 starter. Avoid all Browns and Oakland QBs.
Future IDP Scouting
Or Auburn love, whatever.
deepsouthsports.net: Weekend Highlight
The name is Quentin Groves. The Hulk wears Q Underoos.
deepsouthsports.net: Weekend Highlight
The name is Quentin Groves. The Hulk wears Q Underoos.
Sunday, September 2, 2007
A couple quick hits...
1) I went to the Auburn game and I couldn't tell you how long I pondered leaving. I love my Tigers, but they're notoriously inconsistent sometimes. They pulled out a W but I'd like to smack Al Borges right about now. Al, the two and three TE sets didn't open many holes the first four times you tried. It's no wonder they didn't work the 40th time either.
2) Tory Holt owners, be concerned. He says he's ony 70-80% back from what should have been minor off-season knee surgerys.
3) The Falcons' new Kicker is Matt Prater. So long Billy Cundiff.
I'll do some more cruising tomorrow for items of impact.
2) Tory Holt owners, be concerned. He says he's ony 70-80% back from what should have been minor off-season knee surgerys.
3) The Falcons' new Kicker is Matt Prater. So long Billy Cundiff.
I'll do some more cruising tomorrow for items of impact.
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