I've noticed some significant movement in just the last few weeks - Deangelo Williams going nuts, for one example. In any event, here's the season ending lists for posterity from Yahoo standard scoring:
QB
Rivers 251
Brees 247
Rodgers 241
Cutler 229
Peyton 225
Warner 210
Cassel 209
Romo 194
Thigpen 191
McNabb 187
Eli 175
Favre 167
Pennington 166
Garrard 164
Ryan 154
Roethlisberger 148
Flacco 143
Note:
Anderson 77
Kitna 37
Carson Palmer 29
WR
Fitzgerald 185
C Johnson 174
A Johnson 171
Jennings 168
Boldin 163
White 162
S. Smith 159
R. Moss 154
A. Bryant 150
TO 146
Wayne 143
V. Jackson 142
B. Marshall 141
Note:
S. Moss 133
K. Walter 128
I. Bruce 118
L. Evans 110
Housh 107
Colston 74
C. Johnson 71
RB
Deangelo Williams 255
M. Turner 241
T. Jones 223
M. Forte 218
If you had those four as your top RBs going into the year - you're a prophet.
AP 217
Westbrook 205
Jones-Drew 197
Steve Slaton 194
Portis 193
Chris Johnson 192
Brandon Jacobs 190
LT 185
Note:
Pierre Thomas 148
S. Jackson 142
Ryan Grant 137
McGahee 99
Addai 96
W. Parker 86
TE
Gonzo 147
Witten 108
Dallas Clark 107
Gates 105
Shiancoe 94
Daniels 87
John Carlson 85
Zach Miller 74
Cooley 74
Fasano 71
Boss 69
Kicker
Gostkowski 152
Bironas 144
Akers 138
Lindell 136
Carney 134
Elam 134
Longwell 134
Crosby 131
Bryant 130
K. Brown 129
Prater 128
And the list goes on minus one or two points a slot...
Defenses
Baltimore 183
Tennessee 169
Pittsburgh 164
NY Jets 147
Chicago 146
Philadelphia 145
Tampa 143
NY Giants 142
Minnesota 139
Indianapolis 128
Green Bay 127
Dallas 127
Miami 126
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Auction League After Action Report
At an auction draft, you can have any player if you're willing to commit the money. Budget right, do a little research and you can pretty much know who is going to be the core of your team. My plan this year was to bank on the rise of the WR compared to the fall of the RB, reasoning that the WRs would be the better value compared to over priced RBs.
After crunching the numbers, examining the trends, and noting the player and coaching movements, I decided that my two favorite high ceiling, lower cost WR plays were Marques Colston and Andre Johnson. I passed on a lot of big names and was the last one to get a player. I waited until most teams had two or more players, actually. It was starting to get scary sitting there with all my auction draft cap still available while others had already spent more than half of theirs. It seemed that was working in my favor as people had already spent big and I got both Colston and Johnson well below my budget.
Being flush with cash and under budget with two core players nailed down turned out to be a curse because it freed me to bid on players I didn't really want. Unfortunately, I landed two of them.
I think it was Steven Jackson first. I had him as a top 10 player, I admit, but he wasn't a targeted player of mine either. Still, sitting there at $20, I was thinking he was worth at least $25 or $30, so I dropped $21 on him and won the bid. If there hadn't just been a rash of people paying WAY too much for QBs, there would have been more cash out there and I would have lost Jackson. In any event, this was bad call number one.
Bad call number two followed shortly.
I lost my two targeted QBs - Jay Cutler and Drew Brees. After losing Cutler and still being under budget, I decided I really wanted Brees yet after making him the most expensive QB in the league, I just couldn't bid another two bucks and lost him. At the time, I was glad but in retrospect, Brees is right now the #1 QB in fantasy football. Instead I got Peyton Manning at the bargain price of $19. Bad move number two.
Peyton started off slow, as I anticipated due to his knee injury, but he never really reached stardom this year either.
After landing Manning, the guy who got Brees looked at my roster and started saying how strong it was. He's all respecting my picks and I'm starting to get sick because it's dawning on me I spent $40 of my $100 cap on players I didn't really want while the QBs I did want were on someone else's roster.
The TEs were, in my opinion, going for too much money but when it got down to Shockey as my last top tier TE option (yeah, bad call, I know), I had to overpay for him - somewhere between 7 and 9 dollars. Thankfully I got Tony Gonzalez for $2. One of the few bright spots on my roster - he is the #1 TE in fantasy football right now.
So after about doubling my budget for both QB and TE and spending almost my entire RB budget on Jackson, I'm tapped out. I ended up not being able to win Brandon Marshall or Jericho Cotchery as #3 and #4 WR. I figured I'd be okay at RB, but that didn't work out either.
For RBs, I had a slew of options I was willing to consider. Jamal Lewis and Thomas Jones were my top value plays. I got Lewis, which was alright but not good, but surprisingly I lacked the budget to compete for Jones. I figured no one would want him after he disappointed so greatly last year and got a year older. Oh, well.
Other options I wanted at RB included Michael Turner, Jonathan Stewart, Steve Slaton and I even identified Maurice Morris as my secret last few rounds 1 dollar player. I ended up with Jackson, Lewis, Morris and Chris Perry. Morris, I believe, had won the starting role in Seattle before being injured.
Perry is a short story of his own. I was never sold on Perry, but with my $ situation and the RBs that were left, he was a long shot hope at least. So after I put him up for a dollar and the Bombers started going: 'He's a starting RB, people, don't let him go for a buck,' that really strained my charity. I think my red face, loud voice and finger pointing probably went unnoticed though. It was subtle red-faced pointing, I think.
I got Tampa for $2, Denver for a dollar or two, and for kickers I took Brandon Coutu and someone else. Coutu was, allegedly, going to be the starting kicker for the Seahawks. I lost Longwell to a vulture with a few more dollars but I ended up with John Carney and Jason Elam off the wire eventually - numbers two and three in fantasy football right now.
As you might recall - Colston and Maurice Morris got hurt in week one, both of which I started. It didn't help that the Texans and Andre Johnson started off slow along with Peyton Manning. Jackson got injured in there somewhere and suffered through a coaching change. I was drug through broken glass and mud to a 1-5 start.
I don't really blame the injuries because I know darn well that if I hadn't spent $40 on players I didn't want, I would have had Thomas Jones, maybe Michael Turner and certainly Jericho Cotchery (I lost him late - two of us saved $ for him and the other guy saved more.) Cotchery has dropped off some but at the beginning of the year, he would have won me a game or two and that would have made the difference in my making the playoffs. I finished 6-7, missing by a game.
Turner and Jones, meanwhile, are the number one and two RBs in fantasy football. Doh!
Just imagine if I'd had the $ to get both of them. In a league where the best player is 8-5 and the worst is 5-8, I would have been a gorilla.
If 'if's and 'but's were candy and nuts, I'd have a Merrier Christmas, right?
After crunching the numbers, examining the trends, and noting the player and coaching movements, I decided that my two favorite high ceiling, lower cost WR plays were Marques Colston and Andre Johnson. I passed on a lot of big names and was the last one to get a player. I waited until most teams had two or more players, actually. It was starting to get scary sitting there with all my auction draft cap still available while others had already spent more than half of theirs. It seemed that was working in my favor as people had already spent big and I got both Colston and Johnson well below my budget.
Being flush with cash and under budget with two core players nailed down turned out to be a curse because it freed me to bid on players I didn't really want. Unfortunately, I landed two of them.
I think it was Steven Jackson first. I had him as a top 10 player, I admit, but he wasn't a targeted player of mine either. Still, sitting there at $20, I was thinking he was worth at least $25 or $30, so I dropped $21 on him and won the bid. If there hadn't just been a rash of people paying WAY too much for QBs, there would have been more cash out there and I would have lost Jackson. In any event, this was bad call number one.
Bad call number two followed shortly.
I lost my two targeted QBs - Jay Cutler and Drew Brees. After losing Cutler and still being under budget, I decided I really wanted Brees yet after making him the most expensive QB in the league, I just couldn't bid another two bucks and lost him. At the time, I was glad but in retrospect, Brees is right now the #1 QB in fantasy football. Instead I got Peyton Manning at the bargain price of $19. Bad move number two.
Peyton started off slow, as I anticipated due to his knee injury, but he never really reached stardom this year either.
After landing Manning, the guy who got Brees looked at my roster and started saying how strong it was. He's all respecting my picks and I'm starting to get sick because it's dawning on me I spent $40 of my $100 cap on players I didn't really want while the QBs I did want were on someone else's roster.
The TEs were, in my opinion, going for too much money but when it got down to Shockey as my last top tier TE option (yeah, bad call, I know), I had to overpay for him - somewhere between 7 and 9 dollars. Thankfully I got Tony Gonzalez for $2. One of the few bright spots on my roster - he is the #1 TE in fantasy football right now.
So after about doubling my budget for both QB and TE and spending almost my entire RB budget on Jackson, I'm tapped out. I ended up not being able to win Brandon Marshall or Jericho Cotchery as #3 and #4 WR. I figured I'd be okay at RB, but that didn't work out either.
For RBs, I had a slew of options I was willing to consider. Jamal Lewis and Thomas Jones were my top value plays. I got Lewis, which was alright but not good, but surprisingly I lacked the budget to compete for Jones. I figured no one would want him after he disappointed so greatly last year and got a year older. Oh, well.
Other options I wanted at RB included Michael Turner, Jonathan Stewart, Steve Slaton and I even identified Maurice Morris as my secret last few rounds 1 dollar player. I ended up with Jackson, Lewis, Morris and Chris Perry. Morris, I believe, had won the starting role in Seattle before being injured.
Perry is a short story of his own. I was never sold on Perry, but with my $ situation and the RBs that were left, he was a long shot hope at least. So after I put him up for a dollar and the Bombers started going: 'He's a starting RB, people, don't let him go for a buck,' that really strained my charity. I think my red face, loud voice and finger pointing probably went unnoticed though. It was subtle red-faced pointing, I think.
I got Tampa for $2, Denver for a dollar or two, and for kickers I took Brandon Coutu and someone else. Coutu was, allegedly, going to be the starting kicker for the Seahawks. I lost Longwell to a vulture with a few more dollars but I ended up with John Carney and Jason Elam off the wire eventually - numbers two and three in fantasy football right now.
As you might recall - Colston and Maurice Morris got hurt in week one, both of which I started. It didn't help that the Texans and Andre Johnson started off slow along with Peyton Manning. Jackson got injured in there somewhere and suffered through a coaching change. I was drug through broken glass and mud to a 1-5 start.
I don't really blame the injuries because I know darn well that if I hadn't spent $40 on players I didn't want, I would have had Thomas Jones, maybe Michael Turner and certainly Jericho Cotchery (I lost him late - two of us saved $ for him and the other guy saved more.) Cotchery has dropped off some but at the beginning of the year, he would have won me a game or two and that would have made the difference in my making the playoffs. I finished 6-7, missing by a game.
Turner and Jones, meanwhile, are the number one and two RBs in fantasy football. Doh!
Just imagine if I'd had the $ to get both of them. In a league where the best player is 8-5 and the worst is 5-8, I would have been a gorilla.
If 'if's and 'but's were candy and nuts, I'd have a Merrier Christmas, right?
Blogged with the Flock Browser
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
I'm Only Mostly Dead
Events converge and the next thing you know you're off the blog habit.
My fourth fantasy football draft happened shortly after my last post but events in my life kept me from posting it - one of which was that I wasn't really that excited about the draft. Then I went like 0-3 to start the year in that league. Combine that with my Auburn Tigers loading the FAIL train with turdulence and I really just lost interest in football for the first half of this season.
At my auction draft, the Bombers and I fought over several of the same players and he won most of the battles. I got Peyton Manning and Steven Jackson as consolation prizes. At the time, they were excellent values. In retrospect at least Manning still is.
Unlike last year, when I was the consensus 'worst team' in the league (I won, suckas!) this year some were saying things like 'How'd he get that roster. Wow. That's strong.' I was ill at ease, though, because I lost most of my targeted players and I didn't particularly want to spend 40% of my bidding cap on Manning and Jackson. It left me lacking depth and that turned out to hurt.
(BTW, I wanted and lost Thomas Jones, Jay Cutler, Matt Schaub, Brandon Marshall, Tony Sheffler, Michael Turner, Jericho Cotchery and Ryan Longwell - most of which turned out to be great this year, though I missed on my hopes for the Texans. But after blowing my budget on Manning and Jackson, who were 'too good of a value to pass up', I just didn't have the $$ to get everyone I wanted.)
From 0-3 to 1-5 in the auction league, things looked bleak. Fortunately it turns out I was only mostly dead.
I've crawled up to 6-6 and until this week I was low scorer, so I got my fair share of luck to scrape up a couple of those wins, no doubt. We have one regular season game left and if I win and/or the team below me loses, I'm in the playoffs. What's better is I'm getting hot the last few weeks thanks to the budding health and production of Andre Johnson and Marques Colston.
In my office league, I'm 8-4 and sitting in third, putting me in charge of my own destiny there as well. I'm 1/2 or 1 game ahead of four others but I've outscored them all over the course of the season, meaning I hold the tie breaker. If I win one of the last two, I'm in.
I have two other leagues on Yahoo. I intended to be competitive in one but I'm 4-8 with no shot at the playoffs. The other was simply to trot out my draft strategy and I'm high scorer in it. I'm in fourth place, though, so my luck has apparenlty all been spent in the auction league. I am tied with four other teams at 6-6 so I need to win my last two games to be sure, but I can probably sneakin with one win.
So, with one week left in the auction league and two in the other leagues, I have a decent shot to make the playoffs in 3 out of 4. Things could certainly be worse.
Auburn, however, is dead. Only an unlikely win against Alabama will make the season anything other than a total waste of a year. Sigh.
If there's one bright side to losing interest in fantasy football so early in the season, it's that I was able to watch the Falcons play football without worrying about who was making what stats. Remember just watching football for the love of the game? I'll enjoy it this year. Next year maybe I'll be back to thinking in terms of fantasy football again.
My fourth fantasy football draft happened shortly after my last post but events in my life kept me from posting it - one of which was that I wasn't really that excited about the draft. Then I went like 0-3 to start the year in that league. Combine that with my Auburn Tigers loading the FAIL train with turdulence and I really just lost interest in football for the first half of this season.
At my auction draft, the Bombers and I fought over several of the same players and he won most of the battles. I got Peyton Manning and Steven Jackson as consolation prizes. At the time, they were excellent values. In retrospect at least Manning still is.
Unlike last year, when I was the consensus 'worst team' in the league (I won, suckas!) this year some were saying things like 'How'd he get that roster. Wow. That's strong.' I was ill at ease, though, because I lost most of my targeted players and I didn't particularly want to spend 40% of my bidding cap on Manning and Jackson. It left me lacking depth and that turned out to hurt.
(BTW, I wanted and lost Thomas Jones, Jay Cutler, Matt Schaub, Brandon Marshall, Tony Sheffler, Michael Turner, Jericho Cotchery and Ryan Longwell - most of which turned out to be great this year, though I missed on my hopes for the Texans. But after blowing my budget on Manning and Jackson, who were 'too good of a value to pass up', I just didn't have the $$ to get everyone I wanted.)
From 0-3 to 1-5 in the auction league, things looked bleak. Fortunately it turns out I was only mostly dead.
I've crawled up to 6-6 and until this week I was low scorer, so I got my fair share of luck to scrape up a couple of those wins, no doubt. We have one regular season game left and if I win and/or the team below me loses, I'm in the playoffs. What's better is I'm getting hot the last few weeks thanks to the budding health and production of Andre Johnson and Marques Colston.
In my office league, I'm 8-4 and sitting in third, putting me in charge of my own destiny there as well. I'm 1/2 or 1 game ahead of four others but I've outscored them all over the course of the season, meaning I hold the tie breaker. If I win one of the last two, I'm in.
I have two other leagues on Yahoo. I intended to be competitive in one but I'm 4-8 with no shot at the playoffs. The other was simply to trot out my draft strategy and I'm high scorer in it. I'm in fourth place, though, so my luck has apparenlty all been spent in the auction league. I am tied with four other teams at 6-6 so I need to win my last two games to be sure, but I can probably sneakin with one win.
So, with one week left in the auction league and two in the other leagues, I have a decent shot to make the playoffs in 3 out of 4. Things could certainly be worse.
Auburn, however, is dead. Only an unlikely win against Alabama will make the season anything other than a total waste of a year. Sigh.
If there's one bright side to losing interest in fantasy football so early in the season, it's that I was able to watch the Falcons play football without worrying about who was making what stats. Remember just watching football for the love of the game? I'll enjoy it this year. Next year maybe I'll be back to thinking in terms of fantasy football again.
Blogged with the Flock Browser
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Fantasy Draft No. 3 Recap
Yeah, I know I said that two maybe three teams was about all I could handle and with my auction draft left, this means I’ll have at least four. Well, I wanted a practice draft or two before this one, so things happened, okay?
I drafted second of 12 teams and this is the work league.
By round:
Adrian Peterson – not much suspense picking second, is there?
Marques Colston – I gambled that McGahee would be left for me at 3.2 because the geezurs, who had LT, needed top WRs.
Willis McGahee – The geezurs did indeed grab a top WR, taking Fitzgerald, but they also took Laurence Maroney, probably the first really big reach of the draft. Even if he’s sold on Maroney, the NE back could have been had rounds later.
Santonio Holmes – I have him ranked highly, but his ultimate value depends on whether the Steelers continue passing this year.
Jerricho Cotchery – My evil plan is coming to fruition. I was high on Cotchery as an overlooked WR3 last year and was right. To get him as WR3 now that the gunslinging Favre is in town is a bargain.
Chris Cooley – Tight ends started disappearing at the top of round 4, so I’m very happy to get one of the elite picks at the position in the bottom of the sixth.
Jay Cutler – I know this sounds crazy, but I was considering taking McNabb. However, I would have had to have done so in the fifth, which I knew ahead of time based on my ADP charts, and I didn’t like what that left me with as WR3. This league starts three WRs. Cutler was 10th last year and should improve. This may be my steal of the draft.
Santana Moss – I’ve since cooled on the ‘Skins considering their last two pre-season games were flops, but if they repeat the success of the first two, Moss will be a great guy to plug in.
Chris Johnson – I’ve only got two RBs, so now begins the panic drafting of upside RBs as I try to catch lightning in a bottle. Here’s hoping LenDale eats too much to run anymore.
Patrick Crayton – when I start 3 WRs, I like to have two on the bench. As WR2, his upside is limited, but he will be playing opposite TO and should get his stats. This is a relative steal and there’ll be a few teams wishing he was in their starting lineup.
Jon Kitna – At first I thought the end of the Martz era spelled doom for the career second tier QB, but I’m starting to change my mind due to his pre-season success. This is less than a sure-thing, though, leaving me hoping one of my QBs works out.
Maurice Morris – My second grasp at hope in the RB department. Morris has outperformed Julius Jones, as I blogged he might. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Morris put Jones on the bench before the season is over.
Seattle – I needed a defense. They’ll work. Unlike last year, I don’t have a real good feeling about particular teams – mostly because I didn’t get to watch the preseason games.
Steve Slaton – grasping attempt #3. I later dropped Slaton to pick up Jonathan Stewart, who was drafted in the 10th and then dropped by that player in a waiver wire move. With Stewart, Morris and Johnson on my bench, hopefully one of three will pan out.
Ryan Longwell – I think Minnesota will improve this year and Longwell wasn’t too shabby last year. He has a shot to be the best kicker in fantasy football, I picked him in the last round of our draft. Sweet.
In sum, this draft happened at the top pretty much like my ADP charts predicted. As soon as I learned I had the second pick, I planned my moves and got the first six players I thought I would. At round 5, I considered McNabb, but even before the draft I knew drafting him there would cost me my targeted WR3 – Cotchery.
All in all, it was a good draft, yet I find myself unable to get excited about it for some reason. I think it’s because even though I got a lot of players I targetted, I didn’t end up with a lot of sure bets.
Lesson learned: When playing with co-workers, some of whom even let the site auto-draft for them, the ADP charts are pretty good predictors. They’re not perfect, of course, and I did have to take a few target players a round early because I drafted second, meaning if I passed on a player at times I’d miss almost two whole rounds. But, hey, they’re averages, not prophecy.
I drafted second of 12 teams and this is the work league.
By round:
Adrian Peterson – not much suspense picking second, is there?
Marques Colston – I gambled that McGahee would be left for me at 3.2 because the geezurs, who had LT, needed top WRs.
Willis McGahee – The geezurs did indeed grab a top WR, taking Fitzgerald, but they also took Laurence Maroney, probably the first really big reach of the draft. Even if he’s sold on Maroney, the NE back could have been had rounds later.
Santonio Holmes – I have him ranked highly, but his ultimate value depends on whether the Steelers continue passing this year.
Jerricho Cotchery – My evil plan is coming to fruition. I was high on Cotchery as an overlooked WR3 last year and was right. To get him as WR3 now that the gunslinging Favre is in town is a bargain.
Chris Cooley – Tight ends started disappearing at the top of round 4, so I’m very happy to get one of the elite picks at the position in the bottom of the sixth.
Jay Cutler – I know this sounds crazy, but I was considering taking McNabb. However, I would have had to have done so in the fifth, which I knew ahead of time based on my ADP charts, and I didn’t like what that left me with as WR3. This league starts three WRs. Cutler was 10th last year and should improve. This may be my steal of the draft.
Santana Moss – I’ve since cooled on the ‘Skins considering their last two pre-season games were flops, but if they repeat the success of the first two, Moss will be a great guy to plug in.
Chris Johnson – I’ve only got two RBs, so now begins the panic drafting of upside RBs as I try to catch lightning in a bottle. Here’s hoping LenDale eats too much to run anymore.
Patrick Crayton – when I start 3 WRs, I like to have two on the bench. As WR2, his upside is limited, but he will be playing opposite TO and should get his stats. This is a relative steal and there’ll be a few teams wishing he was in their starting lineup.
Jon Kitna – At first I thought the end of the Martz era spelled doom for the career second tier QB, but I’m starting to change my mind due to his pre-season success. This is less than a sure-thing, though, leaving me hoping one of my QBs works out.
Maurice Morris – My second grasp at hope in the RB department. Morris has outperformed Julius Jones, as I blogged he might. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Morris put Jones on the bench before the season is over.
Seattle – I needed a defense. They’ll work. Unlike last year, I don’t have a real good feeling about particular teams – mostly because I didn’t get to watch the preseason games.
Steve Slaton – grasping attempt #3. I later dropped Slaton to pick up Jonathan Stewart, who was drafted in the 10th and then dropped by that player in a waiver wire move. With Stewart, Morris and Johnson on my bench, hopefully one of three will pan out.
Ryan Longwell – I think Minnesota will improve this year and Longwell wasn’t too shabby last year. He has a shot to be the best kicker in fantasy football, I picked him in the last round of our draft. Sweet.
In sum, this draft happened at the top pretty much like my ADP charts predicted. As soon as I learned I had the second pick, I planned my moves and got the first six players I thought I would. At round 5, I considered McNabb, but even before the draft I knew drafting him there would cost me my targeted WR3 – Cotchery.
All in all, it was a good draft, yet I find myself unable to get excited about it for some reason. I think it’s because even though I got a lot of players I targetted, I didn’t end up with a lot of sure bets.
Lesson learned: When playing with co-workers, some of whom even let the site auto-draft for them, the ADP charts are pretty good predictors. They’re not perfect, of course, and I did have to take a few target players a round early because I drafted second, meaning if I passed on a player at times I’d miss almost two whole rounds. But, hey, they’re averages, not prophecy.
Really? NO, Really?
Rudi Johnson says Tatum Bell took his luggage and that it was returned minus his cash, ID and credit cards? Seriously? Come on?
Surely a professional football player wouldn't be as simultaneously immature and stupid to pull this off. Would they?
Surely a professional football player wouldn't be as simultaneously immature and stupid to pull this off. Would they?
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
ADP movement - Content too new for magazines
I'm getting ready for the office draft tonight and reviewing my ADPs. The QBs continue to move up in value this year, as do some of the WRs. More kickers and defenses are moving into the bottom as the fantasy nation weeds out which of the RBs and WRs are less valuable than defenses and kickers.
Moving Up
Witness the Favre effect: Favre debuts in the middle of the seventh round. Thomas Jones has jumped from the top of the 5th to the middle of the fourth, Coles moves up a whole round the top of the 6th and Jericho Cotchery moves up a round and a half to late 5th.
I forget the exact number of spaces, but Manning is up to the top of the second. Romo is a few spaces behind him and Brees has gone from top of the third to middle of the second. Carson Palmer is now also in the middle to late third.
Ray Rice moves up four whole rounds from middle 14th to middle 10th.
Ted Ginn moves up almost two rounds to mid-late 11th.
Chris Perry debuts at top of round 12. Perry is 'officially' the starter in Cincy. We'll see. He's looked pretty good in spots.
Maurice Morris moves from late 15th to late 12th. Probably still a good deal.
Chargers have moved up to the bottom of the seventh. Maybe the Shawne Merriman news is too new to be reflected. This would make them the first D taken and I wouldn't go there.
My pimping for Steve Slaton is paying off as he debuts at late in the 13th.
Michael Turner continues to inch up and is now a bottom of the third guy. Honestly, the ATL passing game doesn't look too shabby. Turner might be a steal if he can take the whole season - something I assume he can do.
Calvin Johnson moves up a whole round to the late 4th.
Chris Johnson moves from bottom of the 10th to the bottom of the 8th.
Moving Down
The biggest losers include:
Others like Willis McGahee, who was a mid-second round pick a few weeks ago is now going in the top of the third. Steve Smith has also dropped to the middle of the third.
Brandon Marshall has dropped 9 spots to #47 overall, meaning if you can grab a good WR 3 to play the first two weeks, he's getting to be a steal.
And do you think the pre-season doesn't matter? Some of this movement is related to off-field issues, but much of it is on-field play. The nice thing is this sort of movement validates my opinions on many of these players.
Regarding McGahee, I guess Rice is doing well and some blogger opined that McGahee might actually be cut. Yet as others pointed out, the cap hit would be tremendous as he's early in a big contract. If they were going to cut him, it should have been last year. I'm not a capologist, I'm just repeating what I read. With the rise of Rice in camp, I'm a little concerned about McGahee, but I probably take him in the third if I have the chance.
One last note: VY is still being drafted in the 11th round. I'd rather have Tarvaris Jackson, who has fallen off the ADP list.
Moving Up
Witness the Favre effect: Favre debuts in the middle of the seventh round. Thomas Jones has jumped from the top of the 5th to the middle of the fourth, Coles moves up a whole round the top of the 6th and Jericho Cotchery moves up a round and a half to late 5th.
I forget the exact number of spaces, but Manning is up to the top of the second. Romo is a few spaces behind him and Brees has gone from top of the third to middle of the second. Carson Palmer is now also in the middle to late third.
Ray Rice moves up four whole rounds from middle 14th to middle 10th.
Ted Ginn moves up almost two rounds to mid-late 11th.
Chris Perry debuts at top of round 12. Perry is 'officially' the starter in Cincy. We'll see. He's looked pretty good in spots.
Maurice Morris moves from late 15th to late 12th. Probably still a good deal.
Chargers have moved up to the bottom of the seventh. Maybe the Shawne Merriman news is too new to be reflected. This would make them the first D taken and I wouldn't go there.
My pimping for Steve Slaton is paying off as he debuts at late in the 13th.
Michael Turner continues to inch up and is now a bottom of the third guy. Honestly, the ATL passing game doesn't look too shabby. Turner might be a steal if he can take the whole season - something I assume he can do.
Calvin Johnson moves up a whole round to the late 4th.
Chris Johnson moves from bottom of the 10th to the bottom of the 8th.
Moving Down
The biggest losers include:
- Bobby Engram drops from bottom 7th to top 12th. (Still too high.)
- Ronnie brown, who was a third round pick a few weeks ago and has plummeted to pick 50 - top of the fifth round in 12 team leagues;
- Julius Jones, a middle fifth to the middle sixth, and;
- Rudi Johnson, a middle fifth to end of the sixth.
- Kevin Curtis, middle of the seventh to top of the ninth
- Deuce McCalister, bottom 8th to middle 10th
- Ahman Green drops a round and a half the middle 10th
Others like Willis McGahee, who was a mid-second round pick a few weeks ago is now going in the top of the third. Steve Smith has also dropped to the middle of the third.
Brandon Marshall has dropped 9 spots to #47 overall, meaning if you can grab a good WR 3 to play the first two weeks, he's getting to be a steal.
And do you think the pre-season doesn't matter? Some of this movement is related to off-field issues, but much of it is on-field play. The nice thing is this sort of movement validates my opinions on many of these players.
Regarding McGahee, I guess Rice is doing well and some blogger opined that McGahee might actually be cut. Yet as others pointed out, the cap hit would be tremendous as he's early in a big contract. If they were going to cut him, it should have been last year. I'm not a capologist, I'm just repeating what I read. With the rise of Rice in camp, I'm a little concerned about McGahee, but I probably take him in the third if I have the chance.
One last note: VY is still being drafted in the 11th round. I'd rather have Tarvaris Jackson, who has fallen off the ADP list.
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Monday, August 18, 2008
Saints WR2 News
Here's an analysis from Rotoworld.com:
Meachem started the preseason opener in place of Marques Colston and went off, grabbing four balls for 129 yards, including a diving 49-yard bomb and a 60-yard catch and run for a score that involved three broken tackles. The latter play in particular proved Meachem is 100% recovered from the lingering effects of knee surgery that washed out his rookie season. He played behind Devery Henderson in New Orleans' second exhibition and caught only one ball for a gain of 11, but the Saints appear to be clearing a path for Meachem to start. According to their latest depth chart, Meachem is on the same side as Henderson and incumbent David Patten has been moved behind Colston. Henderson is squarely on the roster bubble and battled a bad hamstring all summer. The only reason he's ahead of Meachem now is because of experience. The Saints' third preseason game will be telling, but Meachem looks headed for a first-string role by Week 1.
I have already drafted Patten in one league. But then someone in that same league has dropped Meacham. Bryant Johnson may also have been dropped in that league. I think I'll go drop Patten and see who's left on the wire.
Meachem started the preseason opener in place of Marques Colston and went off, grabbing four balls for 129 yards, including a diving 49-yard bomb and a 60-yard catch and run for a score that involved three broken tackles. The latter play in particular proved Meachem is 100% recovered from the lingering effects of knee surgery that washed out his rookie season. He played behind Devery Henderson in New Orleans' second exhibition and caught only one ball for a gain of 11, but the Saints appear to be clearing a path for Meachem to start. According to their latest depth chart, Meachem is on the same side as Henderson and incumbent David Patten has been moved behind Colston. Henderson is squarely on the roster bubble and battled a bad hamstring all summer. The only reason he's ahead of Meachem now is because of experience. The Saints' third preseason game will be telling, but Meachem looks headed for a first-string role by Week 1.
I have already drafted Patten in one league. But then someone in that same league has dropped Meacham. Bryant Johnson may also have been dropped in that league. I think I'll go drop Patten and see who's left on the wire.
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Friday, August 15, 2008
Fantasy Draft Number 2 Recap
This was a private league on Yahoo with, more or less, standard Yahoo rosters and scoring. I limited members to those with fantasy trophies in their Yahoo profile. It includes 12 teams and I picked third.
Adrian Peterson - Well. Surprise, surprise, surprise. Tom Brady went second, saving me from deciding between Steven Jackson or Brian Westbrook. AP is overrated in so much as he is not on LT's level. He remains, however, very explosive and I have to balance out my other picks to account for bad weeks and the injury possibility.
Willis McGahee - Awesome. I have McGahee will within my top 10 and I got him at the bottom of the second. I went stud-RB, but it was only because McGahee was still here. Would also have taken Ryan Grant here, who went the pick before.
Chad Johnson - Ocho Cinco is dropping too far in value this year. I'm pleased to get him in the third, though I probably would have taken Colston, who went the pick before.
By this point in the draft, it's obvious my peers are not sticking to the standard script. Several players have been selected higher than my ADP charts predicted, which I noticed of course because I was hoping to get them a little later. This continues throughout the draft. In just the first round this happened:
1-2 Tom Brady
1-6 Peyton Manning
1-7 Randy Moss
1-8 Tony Romo
1-9 Joseph Addai (I think he's overrated, but Addai is typically a top 5 or 6 pick, but with three QBs and a WR in the top 8, this happens.)
Drew Brees, Wes Welker and Jamal Lewis all, surprisingly, went in the second round, dropping Andre Johnson to a more plausible 2-12.
In the third:
3-1 Derek Anderson
3-5 Anquan Boldin
3-7 Ben Roethlisberger
3-8 Willie Parker
3-12 Donovan McNabb
Back to my picks, resuming with the bottom of the fourth round...
Chris Cooley - No lie, I had about 4 people staged to pick, all of whom went this round before my pick, including Santonio Holmes, Plax, Greg Jennings and Torry Holt. I really, really wanted my second of three starting WRs here, but I wasn't going to reach for a lower tier when there were still plenty of them left. After much heartache and indecision, I pulled the trigger on a 'stud' TE.
Lee Evans - By this part in the draft, I'm convinced this team is doomed. Evans is not a player I'm targeting, but he was by far the WR with the highest projections left on my list, the 'best' QBs are gone and it's way too early to grab a defense.
Santana Moss - Moss is a player I'm targeting. He's not as large as I'd like, but I have high hopes for the 'Skins offense this year.
Both Cotchery and Coles went this round. I was also thinking about their upside given the fact Favre is in NYJ green now. Be aware that astute fantasy footballers are thinking round 6 for these two when a week ago, they were round 7 picks.
Matt Schaub - Normally I wouldn't take Schaub as my QB1, but given my weakness at WR, I wanted a high upside player. There are plenty of second tier QBs left and I am confident I can grab one later. This pick cost me Thomas Jones, who went 7-8.
Rashard Mendenhall - I really wanted Thomas Jones here. I didn't expect him to fall this far at the start of the draft, but considering he was still around in 7, I was hoping the RB position had been considered played out. Mendenhall is a rookie and will most likely disappoint, but there is a good chance he gets the goal line looks in Pittsburgh.
David Garrard - I'm still rolling the dice. He has new WRs to throw to and I expect a big year, but he just doesn't have a fantasy stud year under his belt yet. I could have gone with Eli for the sure thing.
Jerry Porter - I'm pretty happy with this pick. I don't expect Porter to set the world on fire, but exceeding 1000 and 6 is possible. That is if Garrard lives up to the promise.
Owen Daniels - I'm pretty confident that Cooley will be fine, but I'm also high on the Texans this year. Daniels had almost 800 yards receiving last year but just three TDs. If the offense is a little more prolific, he could near 1000 yards. TDs will come, most likely.
Mason Crosby - I needed a kicker. He'll work.
Steve Slaton - There's nothing left by defenses and lottery tickets. Given that I've missed Thomas Jones, Drew Brees and about 6 WRs I was targeting, I wanted to roll the dice on this RB. A lot my players have late bye weeks. Ahman Green is already injured. All that stands between Slaton and stardom is two old, injury prone, mediocre running backs.
David Patten - He got 800 and 3 last year. As with Owen Daniels, I'm hoping Patten is the beneficiary of an improving, high octane offense. If not, he's easy to cut. Even 800 and 3 is a good deal for a 14th round WR. Robert Meacham, drafted in the first round last year, is being drafted higher, but has never caught a regular season pass. Patten starts the year as the #2 in New Orleans and the may not give up the job.
Green Bay - For picking a defense in the last round, this isn't too shabby.
In sum, I wasn't too thrilled with this team right after the draft. It lacks most of the players I've targeted as having a level of certainty plus a measure of upside and substitutes a lot of players that are more upside than certainty. I'll be good at TE and good, if shallow at RB. I'm okay if unspectacular at WR, defense and kicker. QB is a pure crap shoot and the success of this roster probably rests on whether Schaub and/or Garrard blossom to top tier QBs. Plus, after looking at the rest of the league, there's probably only one or two teams I'd swap with.
Adrian Peterson - Well. Surprise, surprise, surprise. Tom Brady went second, saving me from deciding between Steven Jackson or Brian Westbrook. AP is overrated in so much as he is not on LT's level. He remains, however, very explosive and I have to balance out my other picks to account for bad weeks and the injury possibility.
Willis McGahee - Awesome. I have McGahee will within my top 10 and I got him at the bottom of the second. I went stud-RB, but it was only because McGahee was still here. Would also have taken Ryan Grant here, who went the pick before.
Chad Johnson - Ocho Cinco is dropping too far in value this year. I'm pleased to get him in the third, though I probably would have taken Colston, who went the pick before.
By this point in the draft, it's obvious my peers are not sticking to the standard script. Several players have been selected higher than my ADP charts predicted, which I noticed of course because I was hoping to get them a little later. This continues throughout the draft. In just the first round this happened:
1-2 Tom Brady
1-6 Peyton Manning
1-7 Randy Moss
1-8 Tony Romo
1-9 Joseph Addai (I think he's overrated, but Addai is typically a top 5 or 6 pick, but with three QBs and a WR in the top 8, this happens.)
Drew Brees, Wes Welker and Jamal Lewis all, surprisingly, went in the second round, dropping Andre Johnson to a more plausible 2-12.
In the third:
3-1 Derek Anderson
3-5 Anquan Boldin
3-7 Ben Roethlisberger
3-8 Willie Parker
3-12 Donovan McNabb
Back to my picks, resuming with the bottom of the fourth round...
Chris Cooley - No lie, I had about 4 people staged to pick, all of whom went this round before my pick, including Santonio Holmes, Plax, Greg Jennings and Torry Holt. I really, really wanted my second of three starting WRs here, but I wasn't going to reach for a lower tier when there were still plenty of them left. After much heartache and indecision, I pulled the trigger on a 'stud' TE.
Lee Evans - By this part in the draft, I'm convinced this team is doomed. Evans is not a player I'm targeting, but he was by far the WR with the highest projections left on my list, the 'best' QBs are gone and it's way too early to grab a defense.
Santana Moss - Moss is a player I'm targeting. He's not as large as I'd like, but I have high hopes for the 'Skins offense this year.
Both Cotchery and Coles went this round. I was also thinking about their upside given the fact Favre is in NYJ green now. Be aware that astute fantasy footballers are thinking round 6 for these two when a week ago, they were round 7 picks.
Matt Schaub - Normally I wouldn't take Schaub as my QB1, but given my weakness at WR, I wanted a high upside player. There are plenty of second tier QBs left and I am confident I can grab one later. This pick cost me Thomas Jones, who went 7-8.
Rashard Mendenhall - I really wanted Thomas Jones here. I didn't expect him to fall this far at the start of the draft, but considering he was still around in 7, I was hoping the RB position had been considered played out. Mendenhall is a rookie and will most likely disappoint, but there is a good chance he gets the goal line looks in Pittsburgh.
David Garrard - I'm still rolling the dice. He has new WRs to throw to and I expect a big year, but he just doesn't have a fantasy stud year under his belt yet. I could have gone with Eli for the sure thing.
Jerry Porter - I'm pretty happy with this pick. I don't expect Porter to set the world on fire, but exceeding 1000 and 6 is possible. That is if Garrard lives up to the promise.
Owen Daniels - I'm pretty confident that Cooley will be fine, but I'm also high on the Texans this year. Daniels had almost 800 yards receiving last year but just three TDs. If the offense is a little more prolific, he could near 1000 yards. TDs will come, most likely.
Mason Crosby - I needed a kicker. He'll work.
Steve Slaton - There's nothing left by defenses and lottery tickets. Given that I've missed Thomas Jones, Drew Brees and about 6 WRs I was targeting, I wanted to roll the dice on this RB. A lot my players have late bye weeks. Ahman Green is already injured. All that stands between Slaton and stardom is two old, injury prone, mediocre running backs.
David Patten - He got 800 and 3 last year. As with Owen Daniels, I'm hoping Patten is the beneficiary of an improving, high octane offense. If not, he's easy to cut. Even 800 and 3 is a good deal for a 14th round WR. Robert Meacham, drafted in the first round last year, is being drafted higher, but has never caught a regular season pass. Patten starts the year as the #2 in New Orleans and the may not give up the job.
Green Bay - For picking a defense in the last round, this isn't too shabby.
In sum, I wasn't too thrilled with this team right after the draft. It lacks most of the players I've targeted as having a level of certainty plus a measure of upside and substitutes a lot of players that are more upside than certainty. I'll be good at TE and good, if shallow at RB. I'm okay if unspectacular at WR, defense and kicker. QB is a pure crap shoot and the success of this roster probably rests on whether Schaub and/or Garrard blossom to top tier QBs. Plus, after looking at the rest of the league, there's probably only one or two teams I'd swap with.
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Sunday, August 10, 2008
Falcons Fantasy Players Not Too Shabby
Roddy White - Five catches for 47 yards and a TD.
Michael Turner - 5 carries for 22 yards. Rotoworld was all negative on those numbers. "Turner didn't have much room to work with, but he didn't create anything either." Maybe I'm missing something, but I think 4.4 YPC is a good average for a running back. It's just five carries, though.
Matt Ryan - 9 of 15 for 113 and a TD. Ryan was the best QB on the roster Saturday.
Michael Turner - 5 carries for 22 yards. Rotoworld was all negative on those numbers. "Turner didn't have much room to work with, but he didn't create anything either." Maybe I'm missing something, but I think 4.4 YPC is a good average for a running back. It's just five carries, though.
Matt Ryan - 9 of 15 for 113 and a TD. Ryan was the best QB on the roster Saturday.
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Patriots Lose Another DB
Safety/Linebacker Tank Williams has been lost for the season with a knee injury.
It's time to bail on the Patriots defense. They were decimated in free agency. This can't help.
It's time to bail on the Patriots defense. They were decimated in free agency. This can't help.
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Maurice Morris Outplays Jones
Ripped from Rotoworld:
Maurice Morris played with the starting offense in Seattle's preseason opener, running for 62 yards on six carries and adding a one-yard catch. Julius Jones (4-15, 1-3) was on the No. 2 offense and struggled like he was back in Dallas. He got stuffed on a third-and-one before the end of the half, marched off pouting, and ripped his helmet off on the side. Jones seemed to lack confidence late in his Cowboys career and it may still be an issue. Aug. 8 - 10:49 pm et
I told you this might happen...
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Friday, August 8, 2008
Just So Everyone Knows
I understand I am being discussed in the Bombers' 'other' auction league - the one he spends all off season mocking 'cause he owns their butts and wins or places every stinking year.
Someone can't make the draft and it was suggested I fill in for them. (I think I was referred to as 'that guy with the laptop'.) In an apparent bid to drive down my fee, someone (probably the Bombers) mentioned that the #1 WR I drafted for the Bombers when I filled in for him in '05 was Santana Moss.
Moss finished that year with 790 and was coming off a 1500 yard year. Drafting him as a #1 was, at the time, defendable. But that's not the point.
I didn't rank him ninth. The Bombers did.
"Why did you draft Moss?" asked the Bombers.
"You put him in your top 10," I said.
"Well I had to put someone in it."
[sarcasm] Brilliant response, Bombers. [/sarcasm]
I only take the blame when I'm wrong or when my wife says I'm wrong. Neither applies here.
For future reference, my fee is negotiable, but should include lodging, 58.5 cents per mile and a per diem of $50 plus a 25% share of any winnings. This is a very reasonable fee. And I won't even charge you for the paperwork, like some shyster lawyer might.
And if anyone in that league ever wants to see the Bombers face some competition other than the Destroyers, just let me know. He's 0-2 in our auction league.
Someone can't make the draft and it was suggested I fill in for them. (I think I was referred to as 'that guy with the laptop'.) In an apparent bid to drive down my fee, someone (probably the Bombers) mentioned that the #1 WR I drafted for the Bombers when I filled in for him in '05 was Santana Moss.
Moss finished that year with 790 and was coming off a 1500 yard year. Drafting him as a #1 was, at the time, defendable. But that's not the point.
I didn't rank him ninth. The Bombers did.
"Why did you draft Moss?" asked the Bombers.
"You put him in your top 10," I said.
"Well I had to put someone in it."
[sarcasm] Brilliant response, Bombers. [/sarcasm]
I only take the blame when I'm wrong or when my wife says I'm wrong. Neither applies here.
For future reference, my fee is negotiable, but should include lodging, 58.5 cents per mile and a per diem of $50 plus a 25% share of any winnings. This is a very reasonable fee. And I won't even charge you for the paperwork, like some shyster lawyer might.
And if anyone in that league ever wants to see the Bombers face some competition other than the Destroyers, just let me know. He's 0-2 in our auction league.
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Thursday, August 7, 2008
Downgrade Matt Forte
First round draft pick, tackle Chris Williams of the Chicago Bears, has had surgery on a herniated disk and is out indefinitely. See here.
I was starting to cool on Forte, but this doesn't help.
I was starting to cool on Forte, but this doesn't help.
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Torian Out 3 Months
Fifth round draft pick and potential Mike Shanahan wunderkind Ryan Torian broke an elbow and will miss three months, per the AP.
Shanahan refused to answer if the loss will hurt the club, but fellow RB Andre Hall said the team had a short yardage package just for Torian, confirming what all of us suspected, Selvin Young was not going to be a 2000 yard back.
Now, however...
Mike Shanahan will still find a way to skewer your hopes and dreams of landing the next Terrell Davis by giving Hall or Anthony Aldridge half the carries this year. Really, if you're going to draft Torian, you might as well take Aldridge. One's as good a guess as the other.
I can't wait for Shanahan to retire.
Shanahan refused to answer if the loss will hurt the club, but fellow RB Andre Hall said the team had a short yardage package just for Torian, confirming what all of us suspected, Selvin Young was not going to be a 2000 yard back.
Now, however...
Mike Shanahan will still find a way to skewer your hopes and dreams of landing the next Terrell Davis by giving Hall or Anthony Aldridge half the carries this year. Really, if you're going to draft Torian, you might as well take Aldridge. One's as good a guess as the other.
I can't wait for Shanahan to retire.
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Favre A Jet
Hmm... time to re-evaluate Cotchery and Coles. And Thomas Jones looks all that much better now.
Gonna be funny watching so many Jets games this year, though. Unless the NFL network decides to keep all the Jets games.
Favre, though, has made a butt of himself. I like his enthusiasm, but this whole I retire, I want back, I'll stay retired, no I really want back, reinstate me and give me my release, I'm showing up at your training camp, I'm not training stuff, to me, was childish. Mostly on his part. I totally understand the team's point - Brett had become larger than the Packers and they had to have been tired of living at his whims each off-season.
Brett has basically tried to influence their drafts and free agent pickups for years, threating to retire if the team didn't improve at one position or another. I kinda understand that, but this whole offseason business just makes him look a self-centered, childish brat.
Brat Favre. Sigh. Just play football, dude. I'll forgive you in a few years if you finish with class.
Gonna be funny watching so many Jets games this year, though. Unless the NFL network decides to keep all the Jets games.
Favre, though, has made a butt of himself. I like his enthusiasm, but this whole I retire, I want back, I'll stay retired, no I really want back, reinstate me and give me my release, I'm showing up at your training camp, I'm not training stuff, to me, was childish. Mostly on his part. I totally understand the team's point - Brett had become larger than the Packers and they had to have been tired of living at his whims each off-season.
Brett has basically tried to influence their drafts and free agent pickups for years, threating to retire if the team didn't improve at one position or another. I kinda understand that, but this whole offseason business just makes him look a self-centered, childish brat.
Brat Favre. Sigh. Just play football, dude. I'll forgive you in a few years if you finish with class.
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Wednesday, August 6, 2008
It's Official, Marshall Suspended
Brandon Marshall is suspended three games for arrests deemed to be in violation of the NFL's conduct policy. He'll miss three games, which could be reduced to two with counseling and 'other conditions.' He can still practice and take part in the pre-season, though.
Assuming he keeps himself out of trouble, Marshall is still worth taking as your low-end WR1. Prior to the suspension, I had him projected to get more yards than Braylon Edwards. I'm a little crazy, though.
Assuming he keeps himself out of trouble, Marshall is still worth taking as your low-end WR1. Prior to the suspension, I had him projected to get more yards than Braylon Edwards. I'm a little crazy, though.
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Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Draft Observations
I'm still second guessing taking Santana Moss over Jeremy Shockey in the 7th. We'll just have to see.
But I'm going over the draft results and other than that, the draft went pretty well as there's no one after one of my picks that I would rather have had with the exception of Shockey. Maybe.
But look at the 10th round...
10.1 Rashard Mendenhall
10.3 Willie Parker
10.6 LenDale White
10.9 Kevin Smith
10.10 Rudi Johnson
My. My. My. It's the hope and a prayer running back round and the rookie Mendenhall went before Parker. Rudi Johnson is probably the best hope here. Sure he's another year older and just might be over the hill, but it's not like he's afraid to hit the hole. As long as the Bengals give him 20 carries a game, he'll produce.
Bobby Engram went 11.8. Looks like this group of managers isn't sold on him as a top WR. His ADP is 7.12.
But I'm going over the draft results and other than that, the draft went pretty well as there's no one after one of my picks that I would rather have had with the exception of Shockey. Maybe.
But look at the 10th round...
10.1 Rashard Mendenhall
10.3 Willie Parker
10.6 LenDale White
10.9 Kevin Smith
10.10 Rudi Johnson
My. My. My. It's the hope and a prayer running back round and the rookie Mendenhall went before Parker. Rudi Johnson is probably the best hope here. Sure he's another year older and just might be over the hill, but it's not like he's afraid to hit the hole. As long as the Bengals give him 20 carries a game, he'll produce.
Bobby Engram went 11.8. Looks like this group of managers isn't sold on him as a top WR. His ADP is 7.12.
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Sunday, August 3, 2008
First Draft Recap
In draft order:
Steven Jackson - He got over 1200 all purpose yards last year basically without any help from a line or a passing game. Here's hoping the line stays healthy this year.
Reggie Wayne - O joy, O joy! I actually project Andre Johnson, who was still available, to do better this year, but I know Wayne is going to be a top 5 WR barring injury.
Drew Brees - Don't you love it when a plan comes together? He is a cinch for over 4000 yards and with Shockey in town I think this offense is set to explode. Here's hoping the passing TDs do too.
Earnest Graham - I wasn't targeting Graham, but I've got him at the top of my third tier, making him my best option for RB2. Here's hoping for a repeat of last year's success.
Greg Jennings - Another player I wasn't targeting. I have him one slotted higher on my projections than Santonio Holmes, but I really wanted Holmes here for his upside. Alas, Holmes went the pick before and is the first player I would consider 'lost' that I thought I could get.
Thomas Jones - I figured he'd be long gone by now. I almost took him last round. All three of my top RBs have questions, but hopefully two of them end up being decent.
Santana Moss - I did have a WR or two with higher projections, but it's time to start looking for upside. I had planned to take Shockey here, but gambled the Saints TE would last another round to secure my third starting WR. (Yahoo default leagues start three...)
Jonathan Stewart - I wasn't expecting to take an RB here, but I lost Shockey and had to look at the available players, leading me to this gem. Stewart's ADP is in the fifth round. I was pleased to find him. Here's hoping for 'the next' Stephen Davis.
Patrick Crayton - Here's a player I may target late in future drafts. Terry Glenn's gone and I don't think fantasy nation got the word. On the other hand, I probably should have taken Nate Burleson. I waffled. We'll see if I picked right.
Jerry Porter - With three starting WRs and especially with Crayton sharing a bye week with Santana Moss sharing a bye week, I felt it good to grab a fifth WR. Normally I might like to wait to see who emerges on the waiver wire, but Porter may be the best WR Garrard has ever had. I'm hoping those two recreate the Brady to Moss magic, albeit on a less explosive level.
Well, the plan was to stick with 6 of the first 7 as RBs and WRs, but when I lost Shockey, I managed to go 9 of the first 10. Porter was also a calculated gamble pick. I wanted a TE by now, but with three people (and six picks) between this and my next round, I hoped a decent TE gamble would still be available. Taking Porter here also means there's no roster spot for Bryant Johnson, who could have been had in round 12.
Tony Schefler - I considered, Schefler, Owen Daniels and Alge Crumpler for this slot. I just missed Daniels, but I wanted Schefler more anyway. Honestly, the sure thing TEs are long gone, but if you don't get Witten or Gates, you might as well wait. I think Shockey will have a great season, but I wasn't going to reach for a TE after losing him.
Matt Schaub - Shazam. I'd almost be willing to start Schaub as he projects to over 4000 yards and the mid-20s in TDs. I'm thrilled to have him as a QB2. Unfortunately, he faces Minnesota the week Drew Brees is on bye. The Vikes haven't been a great passing defense. They've been an awful one, but with new DE Jared Allen and three DBs via free agency, the purple clad ones could be dominant this year.
Seattle - Why not? Every 'sure thing' was gone and the Seahawks face Brody Croyle and Jarmarcus Russel twice each. I was actually hoping for the Packers here.
Alge Crumpler - The best kickers are gone but I saw a good one buried in the ranked list, so Crumpler it was. If he returns to his pro-bowl form, not an impossibility, he may be a top TE.
Kris Brown - With the top-rated kickers long gone, I picked one from an offense I expect to do well this year. That strategy got me Gostkowski on more than one team last year. When picking kickers, think of the offense first and not who the kicker actually is. Jason Elam is a prime example of this. He's on the Falcons this year, hence not worth much.
Observations:
With Reggie Wayne and Drew Brees, I have two players that are proven difference makers on fantasy rosters. My RB corps needs to see players emerge or, in the case of Jackson and Graham, live up to their draft slot. My WR corps is also full of potential. As for TE, Kicker and D, with a little good luck, I'll hit on two of the three slots.
If I had passed on Brees in the third, I would have taken Chad Johnson there. Ocho Cinco is getting no love this year, but he's dropped too far. He's still a potential top 5 or so WR. I then would have taken Cutler in the 7th or 8th and hoped that either Cutler or Schaub lived up to their potential. But all in all, I'd rather have the 'sure' thing in Brees. Had I passed on Brees and aimed for Cutler, I don't think much else would have changed.
If I had taken Shockey instead of Moss, every pick after could have changed. It would have left me grasping at hope for a WR3, 4 and 5. As it is, I'm pretty happy with my WR corps and I think one my TEs will emerge. Still, missing Shockey cost me a better chance at having an impact player at TE.
Good draft, all in all.
Steven Jackson - He got over 1200 all purpose yards last year basically without any help from a line or a passing game. Here's hoping the line stays healthy this year.
Reggie Wayne - O joy, O joy! I actually project Andre Johnson, who was still available, to do better this year, but I know Wayne is going to be a top 5 WR barring injury.
Drew Brees - Don't you love it when a plan comes together? He is a cinch for over 4000 yards and with Shockey in town I think this offense is set to explode. Here's hoping the passing TDs do too.
Earnest Graham - I wasn't targeting Graham, but I've got him at the top of my third tier, making him my best option for RB2. Here's hoping for a repeat of last year's success.
Greg Jennings - Another player I wasn't targeting. I have him one slotted higher on my projections than Santonio Holmes, but I really wanted Holmes here for his upside. Alas, Holmes went the pick before and is the first player I would consider 'lost' that I thought I could get.
Thomas Jones - I figured he'd be long gone by now. I almost took him last round. All three of my top RBs have questions, but hopefully two of them end up being decent.
Santana Moss - I did have a WR or two with higher projections, but it's time to start looking for upside. I had planned to take Shockey here, but gambled the Saints TE would last another round to secure my third starting WR. (Yahoo default leagues start three...)
Jonathan Stewart - I wasn't expecting to take an RB here, but I lost Shockey and had to look at the available players, leading me to this gem. Stewart's ADP is in the fifth round. I was pleased to find him. Here's hoping for 'the next' Stephen Davis.
Patrick Crayton - Here's a player I may target late in future drafts. Terry Glenn's gone and I don't think fantasy nation got the word. On the other hand, I probably should have taken Nate Burleson. I waffled. We'll see if I picked right.
Jerry Porter - With three starting WRs and especially with Crayton sharing a bye week with Santana Moss sharing a bye week, I felt it good to grab a fifth WR. Normally I might like to wait to see who emerges on the waiver wire, but Porter may be the best WR Garrard has ever had. I'm hoping those two recreate the Brady to Moss magic, albeit on a less explosive level.
Well, the plan was to stick with 6 of the first 7 as RBs and WRs, but when I lost Shockey, I managed to go 9 of the first 10. Porter was also a calculated gamble pick. I wanted a TE by now, but with three people (and six picks) between this and my next round, I hoped a decent TE gamble would still be available. Taking Porter here also means there's no roster spot for Bryant Johnson, who could have been had in round 12.
Tony Schefler - I considered, Schefler, Owen Daniels and Alge Crumpler for this slot. I just missed Daniels, but I wanted Schefler more anyway. Honestly, the sure thing TEs are long gone, but if you don't get Witten or Gates, you might as well wait. I think Shockey will have a great season, but I wasn't going to reach for a TE after losing him.
Matt Schaub - Shazam. I'd almost be willing to start Schaub as he projects to over 4000 yards and the mid-20s in TDs. I'm thrilled to have him as a QB2. Unfortunately, he faces Minnesota the week Drew Brees is on bye. The Vikes haven't been a great passing defense. They've been an awful one, but with new DE Jared Allen and three DBs via free agency, the purple clad ones could be dominant this year.
Seattle - Why not? Every 'sure thing' was gone and the Seahawks face Brody Croyle and Jarmarcus Russel twice each. I was actually hoping for the Packers here.
Alge Crumpler - The best kickers are gone but I saw a good one buried in the ranked list, so Crumpler it was. If he returns to his pro-bowl form, not an impossibility, he may be a top TE.
Kris Brown - With the top-rated kickers long gone, I picked one from an offense I expect to do well this year. That strategy got me Gostkowski on more than one team last year. When picking kickers, think of the offense first and not who the kicker actually is. Jason Elam is a prime example of this. He's on the Falcons this year, hence not worth much.
Observations:
With Reggie Wayne and Drew Brees, I have two players that are proven difference makers on fantasy rosters. My RB corps needs to see players emerge or, in the case of Jackson and Graham, live up to their draft slot. My WR corps is also full of potential. As for TE, Kicker and D, with a little good luck, I'll hit on two of the three slots.
If I had passed on Brees in the third, I would have taken Chad Johnson there. Ocho Cinco is getting no love this year, but he's dropped too far. He's still a potential top 5 or so WR. I then would have taken Cutler in the 7th or 8th and hoped that either Cutler or Schaub lived up to their potential. But all in all, I'd rather have the 'sure' thing in Brees. Had I passed on Brees and aimed for Cutler, I don't think much else would have changed.
If I had taken Shockey instead of Moss, every pick after could have changed. It would have left me grasping at hope for a WR3, 4 and 5. As it is, I'm pretty happy with my WR corps and I think one my TEs will emerge. Still, missing Shockey cost me a better chance at having an impact player at TE.
Good draft, all in all.
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Here's What I Think Will Happen
First - I'll get Westbrook or Jackson. Not thrilling picks - no upside at that ranking.
Second - Andre Johnson is most likely, but I'd take Grant if he happens to fall this far. Maurice Jones Drew would make a good pick here, too.
Third - Drews Brees and Jamal Lewis should go just before my pick. I'd hope for Brees, then Lewis and settle for Chad Johnson, Tory Holt or Marques Colston.
Fourth and after - ???? I pick 9th in the fourth, so I will take Edge or Thomas Jones there if I still need my RB 2. Otherwise I'll hope for Santonio Holmes.
All bets are off for the fifth and later.
See you after the draft.
Second - Andre Johnson is most likely, but I'd take Grant if he happens to fall this far. Maurice Jones Drew would make a good pick here, too.
Third - Drews Brees and Jamal Lewis should go just before my pick. I'd hope for Brees, then Lewis and settle for Chad Johnson, Tory Holt or Marques Colston.
Fourth and after - ???? I pick 9th in the fourth, so I will take Edge or Thomas Jones there if I still need my RB 2. Otherwise I'll hope for Santonio Holmes.
All bets are off for the fifth and later.
See you after the draft.
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T Minus 25 minutes
It's still going to be my first draft of the season, so we'll see how many rough edges need sanding, but I have the genesis of a plan.
All the starting, non-rookie RBs are gone by the end of the fourth, top of the 5th, with Thomas Jones being the last of the running backs with an acceptable level of risk for an RB2. I must get two RBs in the first four rounds.
I am willing to spend a first rounder on Tom Brady or a third rounder on Drew Brees, but I might pass on Brady to take Clinton Portis if both are available for mid-late first round. That'll be gut check time. After Brady, my next QB target will be Cutler in the 7th.
By the end of the 7th, I hope to have a QB, three RBs and three WRs.
Why not take a top TE? Well, Shockey is going the top of the 8th and I hope to get him in the 8th. Otherwise, I'll just have to make due with some combination of Scheffler, Owen Daniels, Alge Crumpler (all 10th, top 11th round averages) and Kevin Boss - whose ADP makes him Mr. Irrelevant.
So in the late rounds, I'd like to grab Schaub, Garrard or Aaron Rodgers around the 10th and fall back to Jason Campbell late 11, early 12.
We'll just see what pans out for fliers on WR4 and RB4 selections.
For defenses, Chargers and Vikes are going in Round 8, which I might do if I miss Shockey. The boys in the 10th and the giants in the 11th both look good. The pack is available at the top of the 12th. After that, I'll just pick one in round 14 or 15.
I just got into the draft room and I am drafting fourth. Looks like I have to take a consensus top 4 pick, which will likely be westbrook or jackson. Both have high ceilings and, as I've blogged, concerns. They are, however, still in the top 4 of my rankings.
All the starting, non-rookie RBs are gone by the end of the fourth, top of the 5th, with Thomas Jones being the last of the running backs with an acceptable level of risk for an RB2. I must get two RBs in the first four rounds.
I am willing to spend a first rounder on Tom Brady or a third rounder on Drew Brees, but I might pass on Brady to take Clinton Portis if both are available for mid-late first round. That'll be gut check time. After Brady, my next QB target will be Cutler in the 7th.
By the end of the 7th, I hope to have a QB, three RBs and three WRs.
Why not take a top TE? Well, Shockey is going the top of the 8th and I hope to get him in the 8th. Otherwise, I'll just have to make due with some combination of Scheffler, Owen Daniels, Alge Crumpler (all 10th, top 11th round averages) and Kevin Boss - whose ADP makes him Mr. Irrelevant.
So in the late rounds, I'd like to grab Schaub, Garrard or Aaron Rodgers around the 10th and fall back to Jason Campbell late 11, early 12.
We'll just see what pans out for fliers on WR4 and RB4 selections.
For defenses, Chargers and Vikes are going in Round 8, which I might do if I miss Shockey. The boys in the 10th and the giants in the 11th both look good. The pack is available at the top of the 12th. After that, I'll just pick one in round 14 or 15.
I just got into the draft room and I am drafting fourth. Looks like I have to take a consensus top 4 pick, which will likely be westbrook or jackson. Both have high ceilings and, as I've blogged, concerns. They are, however, still in the top 4 of my rankings.
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Steve Smith Suspended
Steve Smith decided it would be a good idea to punch a teammate yesterday, but he was wrong.
Normally teammates tussle on the field, in helmets at least, following a scrimmage play. This is considered competitive spirit. To an extent, it's both expected and encouraged. If no one ever gets upset, then no one cares, after all.
But this happened on the sideline, without helmets and apparently well after any play, during a time when veterans were getting a break. This is called poor impulse control and it is discouraged. Steve Smith, I read yesterday, has had problems with his temper before that led to a suspension and anger management classes.
Now he is suspended two more games this year.
More importantly, reading between the lines, it seems almost as if the team is rallying around the assaulted player, Ken Lucas, who suffered a broken nose to point of ostracizing Smith. In one article yesterday, coach Fox was telling his players not to retaliate against Smith and in an article this morning, I read that the team mobbed Lucas to welcome him back to practice today.
Adjust your rankings accordingly.
Normally teammates tussle on the field, in helmets at least, following a scrimmage play. This is considered competitive spirit. To an extent, it's both expected and encouraged. If no one ever gets upset, then no one cares, after all.
But this happened on the sideline, without helmets and apparently well after any play, during a time when veterans were getting a break. This is called poor impulse control and it is discouraged. Steve Smith, I read yesterday, has had problems with his temper before that led to a suspension and anger management classes.
Now he is suspended two more games this year.
More importantly, reading between the lines, it seems almost as if the team is rallying around the assaulted player, Ken Lucas, who suffered a broken nose to point of ostracizing Smith. In one article yesterday, coach Fox was telling his players not to retaliate against Smith and in an article this morning, I read that the team mobbed Lucas to welcome him back to practice today.
Adjust your rankings accordingly.
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Saturday, August 2, 2008
Let's Get It On
Tomorrow is the big day.
It’s not a wedding, a college entrance exam or the last final exam of the semester. Those things are behind me. It’s not even game day for me or one of the teams I root for. It’s not even the first pre-season game. Nope. It’s my first fantasy draft of the season.
I don’t really care if I win this league I’m drafting for tomorrow. I mean, sure, bragging rights are great, but this is a warm up draft. And yet I’m nervous.
I’m nervous because after all the ranking and analyzing I’ve done, I know who I want, but I don’t know if I’ll be able to get them. I have a general plan for the first three rounds, but that’s not going to cut it. I have work to do. And even that plan is general. If I have to draft, say, 4th, I really have no idea who I’ll draft and part of me is still thinking about stud WR theory if I draft late.
So, here I sit in the
Here’s my plan:
1) final review of rankings. Did I bump everyone in
2) Review last year’s lessons learned. I wrote them in this blog for just this occasion. I’ll repost them for you too.
3) Study the average draft positions. One of the things that has me feeling a little ungrounded right now is I haven’t spent a ton of time comparing my rankings to the magazines’ and websites, let alone the ADPs. I have no real idea who I can steal a couple rounds late or who I have to snag early if I want them. That will change tonight.
4) Slot my targets based on ADP. I may want Andre Johnson, but I don’t think I want to have to take him at the top of the second to get him, for example.
Then I might take part in a couple of mock drafts online. I’m not sure the value of those considering people are all trying theories and few of them are drafting the way they’d actually draft when it counted. Heck, half of ‘em sign up and either don’t participate or bail out in the fourth round. Still, it’ll get me comfortable with pulling the trigger on my picks and eliminating second guessing.
I can’t even post this now. See when you see it, you know I made it to Anchorage, AK.
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