I'm not sure if I more admire the man for trying or if I find him amusing, but I shall be looking forward to Touchdown Chewsday.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Player updates
some interesting tidbits from rotoworld:
The Seattle Post-Intelligencer suggests Nate Burleson and D.J. Hackett could share time at split end this season.
Jerramy Stevens has shown little during Bucs training camp and the preseason, but may make the team due to Alex Smith's ankle injury.
Michael Clayton, Tampa, is on the trading block, but not for cheap and will probably stay with the Bucs.
Clinton Portis believes this may be his final season as a Redskin.
Portis feels like he has to stay healthy this year or he'll be gone. However, the 'Skins will probably hold onto Portis as long as possible if he shows his body isn't breaking down. It's a key season for the rest of his career.
The NFL will not discipline Travis Henry for failure to pay child support.
Further examinations on Plaxico Burress' back revealed that he's only dealing with spasms and has no structural damage.
Eagles TE L.J. Smith expects to be ready for Week 1.
Smith's draft stock has been falling, but he's certainly worth picking as a low TE1 if you miss all the other options or a high TE2.
Marion Barber is not expected to lose his goal-line and third-down duties this season, according to the San Antonio Express-News.
Will he or won't he? Or will Julius Jones or not? Neither is worth more than RB4 flier as far as I'm concerned, and I would probably take Jones ahead of Barber.
Head coach Cam Cameron will formally name the Dolphins' starting running back next Monday.
I will believe this when I see it. Unfortunately, even if it just motivation for Ronnie Brown, it may extend to him losing carries early in the season. And I know Cam Cameron is a coach and I'm a fantasy football geek, but him thinking Ronnie Brown is the problem is silly. Your OL is a joke, coach. Why not try blaming them? Your line gave up stuffs on 26% of the run plays, according to footballoutsiders. Only Detroit was worse.
The Seattle Post-Intelligencer suggests Nate Burleson and D.J. Hackett could share time at split end this season.
Jerramy Stevens has shown little during Bucs training camp and the preseason, but may make the team due to Alex Smith's ankle injury.
Michael Clayton, Tampa, is on the trading block, but not for cheap and will probably stay with the Bucs.
Clinton Portis believes this may be his final season as a Redskin.
Portis feels like he has to stay healthy this year or he'll be gone. However, the 'Skins will probably hold onto Portis as long as possible if he shows his body isn't breaking down. It's a key season for the rest of his career.
The NFL will not discipline Travis Henry for failure to pay child support.
Further examinations on Plaxico Burress' back revealed that he's only dealing with spasms and has no structural damage.
Eagles TE L.J. Smith expects to be ready for Week 1.
Smith's draft stock has been falling, but he's certainly worth picking as a low TE1 if you miss all the other options or a high TE2.
Marion Barber is not expected to lose his goal-line and third-down duties this season, according to the San Antonio Express-News.
Will he or won't he? Or will Julius Jones or not? Neither is worth more than RB4 flier as far as I'm concerned, and I would probably take Jones ahead of Barber.
Head coach Cam Cameron will formally name the Dolphins' starting running back next Monday.
I will believe this when I see it. Unfortunately, even if it just motivation for Ronnie Brown, it may extend to him losing carries early in the season. And I know Cam Cameron is a coach and I'm a fantasy football geek, but him thinking Ronnie Brown is the problem is silly. Your OL is a joke, coach. Why not try blaming them? Your line gave up stuffs on 26% of the run plays, according to footballoutsiders. Only Detroit was worse.
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Pick'em Drafting This Year, Part II
Yesterday, I explained why I picked who at which turn. I'd like to provide some take-away advice for your draft this year.
1) There are good, but not great, RBs available as late as rounds 6 or 7. Don't panic too early for taking your second RB. Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson, Brandon Jacobs, Edge, Carnell Williams, Ronnie Brown are all expected to be as close to a primary back as any team has these days, meaning they're not in a dreaded RBBC. Rank 'em how you want or trust whatever cheat sheet you got. Many of them will be there after you take your second and third pick.
2) After the top 6 or 7 picks of the first round, think about picking up studs at other positions. So if you draft 8th-12th, rather than deciding between that 8th-12th RB on your list, go ahead and take a stud WR and follow it up with a stud WR next round. I will forgive you if you take a top 3-4 QB in the first or second round.
3) Do not panic on QB selections. Yes, there is some piece of mind in having Manning or Palmer on the roster, but most years they are not THAT much better than the #10 QB. The drop off from LT to the #10 RB, however, is drastic. Kitna and a couple other decent options will be available as late as round 6, 7 or even 8 in some leagues. If all else fails, roll the dice with a couple long shots. Roethlisberger is a gamble I like this year. Jason Campbell is my pick for a round 15 QB to be an absolute baseline, consistent option. (If you've read anything on this blog you already know this.)
4) Do not panic on TEs. There are more and more quality TEs every year. The depth goes beyond Gates, Gonzalez, Shockey and Heap. In fact Chris Cooley, Vernon Davis and Jason Witten are all good bets to do better than Gonzalez. Kellen Winslow, too. And Alge Crumpler. And maybe Heath Miller. Etc. If you are not in a position to grab Gates, wait a few rounds and take the best of what's left.
5) If you're comfortable with who you expect to be available later, take the risk of losing a player you like to grab a stud. I would absolutely take Gates in the third if I somehow ended up with a Joseph Addai and Tory Holt (or betters) for my first and second picks. As a counter example, I grabbed Brandon Jacobs as my RB3 one round after taking my RB2 not just because I like him, but because I am not firmly sold on my RB2. I didn't want to risk losing Jacobs to take the available options at other positions when my pick came up.
6) Chicago, Baltimore and whatever defenses you think are sure bets ARE worth grabbing in the mid rounds as soon as you're comfortable with a few core picks at RB and WR. BUT DO NOT GAMBLE on an early defense. Most sites and magazines tell you to wait until next to last or last round because there are so many defenses. Indeed, there are 32 and one of them on the wire is probably facing a crummy team any given week. If you miss a top one, don't sweat it.
7) Minimize risk and maximize upside. I love Laurence Maroney's chances to be a top 5 RB, but I'm not taking him there. For starters, he is an injury risk, then he is an unproven sophomore and finally there's mumblings of spelling him at the goal line. You want to take him late in the first or early second and hope he becomes a top 5 back, rather than take him fifth and pray he doesn't disappoint. Travis Henry is another back in the same category. On the flip side, Larry Johnson and Brian Westbrook pretty much have to reproduce last year's stats to warrant being picked in the top five. As there are reasons to expect they won't, let them go to the next guy if you have a top 5 pick.
8) Be aware of ranking trends. There are two trends here: one, there are always a double handful of hyped up players too high on everyone's board, and; second, there are always undervalued players who lack the name recognition or play on weaker teams that are available later. Don't get sucked in by the hype and identify solid plays you can get a couple rounds later. Vincent Jackson is a favorite sleeper WR this year and I think people are taking him too high because he's in all the magazines as a sleeper. Conversely, Deion Branch disappointed last year so he's way down the rankings but if he's ever going to be a 1,000-yard receiver, this is the year as he's tops on the depth chart in Seattle.
9) Avoid getting caught in draft-day trends. When someone drafts Manning, the next two or the QBs usually go off the board in very short order. Ditto Antonio Gates, Chicago and Steve Smith. That's not so bad, but usually someone gets caught in the trend and makes a suspect pick. Don't follow the herd off the cliff. If the cream of the crop is gone, the grass is greener in the other pasture. Enough metaphors for you? If you are targeting an available player at a position in a run, take him, but
don't draft a position just because the guy ahead of you did.
10) Limit exposure to rookie and sophomore 'hot' players. Looking at Frank Gore, the Bombers paid less for Gore in an auction league than some paid for hot rookie players like Laurence Maroney, Deangelo Williams, Joseph Addai and Reggie Bush. That was a mistake, but that's what happens when everyone is hyping the same players. For some reason, we're all hoping that the new rookie is the next LT.
11) Last, but not least, is study or participate in drafts. I don't like the mock drafts because people like me get on there to see if they can get all the Houston Texans or whatever crazy mess we dream up. Even the professional mock drafts are often cold exercises in some site's representative blindly using his rankings. So, uh, be unfair to some Yahoo or Foxsports leagues and create some practice teams. There are several benefits: one, work out the nerves that come from uncertainty; two, learning which players tend to fall to value positions; and finally, spotting and correcting your own mistakes in drafting. For example, I realized that a lot of the backups I had been targeting shared bye weeks with my starters.
This is not a tip so much, but an observation. All you can do is the best you can. There is definitely some luck in winning fantasy football, particularly in a pick 'em league. Guys get injured, players disappoint, some WR comes from nowhere to the top 10 and that crazy waiver wire hound takes him before the halftime show starts. Enjoy your draft!
1) There are good, but not great, RBs available as late as rounds 6 or 7. Don't panic too early for taking your second RB. Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson, Brandon Jacobs, Edge, Carnell Williams, Ronnie Brown are all expected to be as close to a primary back as any team has these days, meaning they're not in a dreaded RBBC. Rank 'em how you want or trust whatever cheat sheet you got. Many of them will be there after you take your second and third pick.
2) After the top 6 or 7 picks of the first round, think about picking up studs at other positions. So if you draft 8th-12th, rather than deciding between that 8th-12th RB on your list, go ahead and take a stud WR and follow it up with a stud WR next round. I will forgive you if you take a top 3-4 QB in the first or second round.
3) Do not panic on QB selections. Yes, there is some piece of mind in having Manning or Palmer on the roster, but most years they are not THAT much better than the #10 QB. The drop off from LT to the #10 RB, however, is drastic. Kitna and a couple other decent options will be available as late as round 6, 7 or even 8 in some leagues. If all else fails, roll the dice with a couple long shots. Roethlisberger is a gamble I like this year. Jason Campbell is my pick for a round 15 QB to be an absolute baseline, consistent option. (If you've read anything on this blog you already know this.)
4) Do not panic on TEs. There are more and more quality TEs every year. The depth goes beyond Gates, Gonzalez, Shockey and Heap. In fact Chris Cooley, Vernon Davis and Jason Witten are all good bets to do better than Gonzalez. Kellen Winslow, too. And Alge Crumpler. And maybe Heath Miller. Etc. If you are not in a position to grab Gates, wait a few rounds and take the best of what's left.
5) If you're comfortable with who you expect to be available later, take the risk of losing a player you like to grab a stud. I would absolutely take Gates in the third if I somehow ended up with a Joseph Addai and Tory Holt (or betters) for my first and second picks. As a counter example, I grabbed Brandon Jacobs as my RB3 one round after taking my RB2 not just because I like him, but because I am not firmly sold on my RB2. I didn't want to risk losing Jacobs to take the available options at other positions when my pick came up.
6) Chicago, Baltimore and whatever defenses you think are sure bets ARE worth grabbing in the mid rounds as soon as you're comfortable with a few core picks at RB and WR. BUT DO NOT GAMBLE on an early defense. Most sites and magazines tell you to wait until next to last or last round because there are so many defenses. Indeed, there are 32 and one of them on the wire is probably facing a crummy team any given week. If you miss a top one, don't sweat it.
7) Minimize risk and maximize upside. I love Laurence Maroney's chances to be a top 5 RB, but I'm not taking him there. For starters, he is an injury risk, then he is an unproven sophomore and finally there's mumblings of spelling him at the goal line. You want to take him late in the first or early second and hope he becomes a top 5 back, rather than take him fifth and pray he doesn't disappoint. Travis Henry is another back in the same category. On the flip side, Larry Johnson and Brian Westbrook pretty much have to reproduce last year's stats to warrant being picked in the top five. As there are reasons to expect they won't, let them go to the next guy if you have a top 5 pick.
8) Be aware of ranking trends. There are two trends here: one, there are always a double handful of hyped up players too high on everyone's board, and; second, there are always undervalued players who lack the name recognition or play on weaker teams that are available later. Don't get sucked in by the hype and identify solid plays you can get a couple rounds later. Vincent Jackson is a favorite sleeper WR this year and I think people are taking him too high because he's in all the magazines as a sleeper. Conversely, Deion Branch disappointed last year so he's way down the rankings but if he's ever going to be a 1,000-yard receiver, this is the year as he's tops on the depth chart in Seattle.
9) Avoid getting caught in draft-day trends. When someone drafts Manning, the next two or the QBs usually go off the board in very short order. Ditto Antonio Gates, Chicago and Steve Smith. That's not so bad, but usually someone gets caught in the trend and makes a suspect pick. Don't follow the herd off the cliff. If the cream of the crop is gone, the grass is greener in the other pasture. Enough metaphors for you? If you are targeting an available player at a position in a run, take him, but
don't draft a position just because the guy ahead of you did.
10) Limit exposure to rookie and sophomore 'hot' players. Looking at Frank Gore, the Bombers paid less for Gore in an auction league than some paid for hot rookie players like Laurence Maroney, Deangelo Williams, Joseph Addai and Reggie Bush. That was a mistake, but that's what happens when everyone is hyping the same players. For some reason, we're all hoping that the new rookie is the next LT.
11) Last, but not least, is study or participate in drafts. I don't like the mock drafts because people like me get on there to see if they can get all the Houston Texans or whatever crazy mess we dream up. Even the professional mock drafts are often cold exercises in some site's representative blindly using his rankings. So, uh, be unfair to some Yahoo or Foxsports leagues and create some practice teams. There are several benefits: one, work out the nerves that come from uncertainty; two, learning which players tend to fall to value positions; and finally, spotting and correcting your own mistakes in drafting. For example, I realized that a lot of the backups I had been targeting shared bye weeks with my starters.
This is not a tip so much, but an observation. All you can do is the best you can. There is definitely some luck in winning fantasy football, particularly in a pick 'em league. Guys get injured, players disappoint, some WR comes from nowhere to the top 10 and that crazy waiver wire hound takes him before the halftime show starts. Enjoy your draft!
Pick'em Drafting This Year
Each year, the talent pool in the NFL is a little different. One of the keys to drafting a good team is figuring out before hand which players at the various positions might be available at a reasonable spot in your draft.
For example the well known 'Stud RB Theory' might be termed instead 'Stud RB Law'. It's just a fact that if you have two stud running backs you are far and away ahead of the pack at the position that scores the most and does it most consistently. HOWEVER, and this is the big however, how confident are you that that RB you're picking up in the second round is a stud? As the Geezurs have written before - it probably is better to take a top WR than a prayer at running back in the second just because some magazine said you're supposed to pick RB in the first two rounds.
I always base my draft strategy on the running backs and who I expect to be available when. This year, I have so far had the fortune of drafting in the top 3-4 almost every time. Hence most of the teams I drafted have Steven Jackson or Frank Gore on them. Odds are very good that I nailed the first round stud in those cases. But when round two rolls around - my remaining running back choices are usually names like Clinton Portis and Willis McGahee. Even if I think McGahee will have a good, if not spectucular year (which I do), I realize there's a risk - he's on a new team, in a new system and has a spotty track record. Chad Johnson, Tory Holt and Marvin Harrison, however are very often still available - they should put up similar or better fantasy numbers with less risk.
In the second league I care about, the office league, I drafted third and got the Frank Gore pick. I'll explain a bit about my reasoning with each pick, outlined below, which should help you understand why I did not follow the Stud RB Law and take two running backs first.:
1. - Gore. He's been my #3 RB all off season. No changing at the last minute.
2. - Chad Johnson. He's been my #1 WR all off season. Low risk, high ceiling. Available RBs were McGahee, Benson, Portis.
3. - Reggie Wayne. He's been my #2 WR for a while. McGahee gone, but I wouldn't have taken him anway. Why? Because there are still several RBs available that should put up 1000 and get 10 or more TDs, including my favorite sleeper at the position.
4. - Ronnie Brown. I was tempted to take my sleeper RB here, but I still believe Brown is an undervalued pick as high as the middle of the second. The fact is he's a 1000 yard rusher and should improve with the new coaching staff in Miami. I would have taken Antonio Gates here and rolled the dice my sleeper RB was still around 5 picks later and I would have been right. However, Gates went early in the third. (Too early, probably.)
5. - Brandon Jacobs. Finally I can breathe a whole lot easier. He's my low-risk, high-reward break out candidate. At the very least, he gets the goal line carries. At best, he keeps the woeful Reuben Droughns on the bench, which is a pretty good bet.
At this point in the draft, I'm set at RB and have a very good start at WR, where I need to start three. Some of the very top picks at TE and Defense are starting to go. I could have taken Baltimore or San Diego in the fifth and that would have been a good move if I wasn't sold on Jacobs and, honestly, just a little worried about Ronnie Brown (Miami is looking bad in the pre-season). So I bought myself some comfort at two key positions.
On the other hand, I need to count on my cheat sheet for finding quality a quality TE, DEF and QB. I'm not that worried because I think I know what to expect.
6. - New England. Eh, not the sexiest defense, but I'm hoping for great things and they're second on my list (Yeah, probably too high.). I considered waiting to pick up sleeper Ds Minnesota and Green Bay but I have more faith in New England. I really wanted to take WR Reggie Brown here, but missed him by one pick. There was no remaining WR I wanted to risk losing this D for.
7. - Chris Cooley. I would have taken Jon Kitna here, but I missed him by two picks. Waiting on Kitna was a calculated risk. I expect him to finish near the top 5 and he represents great mid-round value. Cooley, however, is my #2 TE based on ceiling. Every TE other than Gates is a risk, but I think Cooley represents the lowest risk for reward. I might have been able to wait another round, but he's getting more and more buzz. Besides, someone might have been reading this blog, seeing as how I missed Reggie Brown and Jon Kitna by just a few picks apiece.
8. - Deion Branch. Okay, I am worried about QB at this point just a little, but looking at the available QBs and WRs, I thought Branch was several cuts above the remaining WRs and I still needed my third starting WR. If worse comes to worse on the QB front - there are 32 teams with starting QBs and I can surely find one with a decent match up off the waiver wire.
9. - Tony Romo. My other consideration here was Jay Cutler or a kicker. There are plenty of kickers left and I would be okay with several of them, so the decision was Cutler or Romo and I opted for the more experienced QB. It's a close call, though. Cutler is looking good in the pre-season.
At this point in the draft, I am very confident in my starting lineup at RB, WR, TE and DEF. I paid the price for it in a riskier QB, but the fantasy point gap between the number 4 or 5 QB and the number 10 QB really isn't very large, which I've blogged before. Still, in the back of my mind, I remember that many years my teams struggle with inconsistent play at the QB slot, which is why I leaned toward experience when deciding between Romo and Cutler.
There is some piece of mind in drafting a Manning, Brady or Palmer, but the cost is enormous in the damage it does to your options at running back and WR. If I had taken Manning third, I would have had to go to war with McGahee and Brandon Jacobs at RB and probably Reggie Wayne and Marques Colston at WR. That might have worked for me, but I wouldn't have been as comfortable with it. The guy who did take Manning has Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones along with Marvin Harrison and Randy Moss. Again, it might work but Benson and Moss represent too much risk for me at those key positions.
10. - Jericho Cotchery. I'm still waiting on a starting K but still looking at the available WRs, I thought Cotchery represented great value here. He got 961 and 6 last year. If he repeats that, I have a very good option to cover bye weeks or fill in in case of injury. Nice pick, thank you very much. Cotchery is undervalued and will most likely be someone's WR2 or a high WR3 next year.
11. - Tatum Bell. I have had my eye on Michael Turner and Ladell Betts, who were both available, for RB4s, but Tatum Bell has at least six weeks to establish himself as the starter in Detroit if Kevin Jones starts the season on the PuP list as expected. A starting RB in the 11th was just impossible to pass up. Bell is undervalued. Sure, he's very unlikely to be a stud, but there's not many better risks for RB4s. Jerious Norwood, another RB4 on my board was not available but I would have passed on him anyway as the coaches plan to give Dunn the opportunity to keep his job.
12.-15. - Stephen Gostkowski, Matt Stover, Minnesota and Jason Campbell.
Picking kickers is mostly about picking the team they kick for. I never heard of Gostkowski before, but if he kicks for New England, he's bound to get his opportunities. Stover was the #6 kicker on Yahoo last year and the offense should improve this year, which also equals more opportunities. The ideal situation is to find an offense that can move the chains easily but struggles to punch it in. Jason Hansen of Detroit might be that golden kicker this year.
As for Minnesota and Campbell, both are very undervalued and backups. If I completely miss their value, who cares.
For example the well known 'Stud RB Theory' might be termed instead 'Stud RB Law'. It's just a fact that if you have two stud running backs you are far and away ahead of the pack at the position that scores the most and does it most consistently. HOWEVER, and this is the big however, how confident are you that that RB you're picking up in the second round is a stud? As the Geezurs have written before - it probably is better to take a top WR than a prayer at running back in the second just because some magazine said you're supposed to pick RB in the first two rounds.
I always base my draft strategy on the running backs and who I expect to be available when. This year, I have so far had the fortune of drafting in the top 3-4 almost every time. Hence most of the teams I drafted have Steven Jackson or Frank Gore on them. Odds are very good that I nailed the first round stud in those cases. But when round two rolls around - my remaining running back choices are usually names like Clinton Portis and Willis McGahee. Even if I think McGahee will have a good, if not spectucular year (which I do), I realize there's a risk - he's on a new team, in a new system and has a spotty track record. Chad Johnson, Tory Holt and Marvin Harrison, however are very often still available - they should put up similar or better fantasy numbers with less risk.
In the second league I care about, the office league, I drafted third and got the Frank Gore pick. I'll explain a bit about my reasoning with each pick, outlined below, which should help you understand why I did not follow the Stud RB Law and take two running backs first.:
1. - Gore. He's been my #3 RB all off season. No changing at the last minute.
2. - Chad Johnson. He's been my #1 WR all off season. Low risk, high ceiling. Available RBs were McGahee, Benson, Portis.
3. - Reggie Wayne. He's been my #2 WR for a while. McGahee gone, but I wouldn't have taken him anway. Why? Because there are still several RBs available that should put up 1000 and get 10 or more TDs, including my favorite sleeper at the position.
4. - Ronnie Brown. I was tempted to take my sleeper RB here, but I still believe Brown is an undervalued pick as high as the middle of the second. The fact is he's a 1000 yard rusher and should improve with the new coaching staff in Miami. I would have taken Antonio Gates here and rolled the dice my sleeper RB was still around 5 picks later and I would have been right. However, Gates went early in the third. (Too early, probably.)
5. - Brandon Jacobs. Finally I can breathe a whole lot easier. He's my low-risk, high-reward break out candidate. At the very least, he gets the goal line carries. At best, he keeps the woeful Reuben Droughns on the bench, which is a pretty good bet.
At this point in the draft, I'm set at RB and have a very good start at WR, where I need to start three. Some of the very top picks at TE and Defense are starting to go. I could have taken Baltimore or San Diego in the fifth and that would have been a good move if I wasn't sold on Jacobs and, honestly, just a little worried about Ronnie Brown (Miami is looking bad in the pre-season). So I bought myself some comfort at two key positions.
On the other hand, I need to count on my cheat sheet for finding quality a quality TE, DEF and QB. I'm not that worried because I think I know what to expect.
6. - New England. Eh, not the sexiest defense, but I'm hoping for great things and they're second on my list (Yeah, probably too high.). I considered waiting to pick up sleeper Ds Minnesota and Green Bay but I have more faith in New England. I really wanted to take WR Reggie Brown here, but missed him by one pick. There was no remaining WR I wanted to risk losing this D for.
7. - Chris Cooley. I would have taken Jon Kitna here, but I missed him by two picks. Waiting on Kitna was a calculated risk. I expect him to finish near the top 5 and he represents great mid-round value. Cooley, however, is my #2 TE based on ceiling. Every TE other than Gates is a risk, but I think Cooley represents the lowest risk for reward. I might have been able to wait another round, but he's getting more and more buzz. Besides, someone might have been reading this blog, seeing as how I missed Reggie Brown and Jon Kitna by just a few picks apiece.
8. - Deion Branch. Okay, I am worried about QB at this point just a little, but looking at the available QBs and WRs, I thought Branch was several cuts above the remaining WRs and I still needed my third starting WR. If worse comes to worse on the QB front - there are 32 teams with starting QBs and I can surely find one with a decent match up off the waiver wire.
9. - Tony Romo. My other consideration here was Jay Cutler or a kicker. There are plenty of kickers left and I would be okay with several of them, so the decision was Cutler or Romo and I opted for the more experienced QB. It's a close call, though. Cutler is looking good in the pre-season.
At this point in the draft, I am very confident in my starting lineup at RB, WR, TE and DEF. I paid the price for it in a riskier QB, but the fantasy point gap between the number 4 or 5 QB and the number 10 QB really isn't very large, which I've blogged before. Still, in the back of my mind, I remember that many years my teams struggle with inconsistent play at the QB slot, which is why I leaned toward experience when deciding between Romo and Cutler.
There is some piece of mind in drafting a Manning, Brady or Palmer, but the cost is enormous in the damage it does to your options at running back and WR. If I had taken Manning third, I would have had to go to war with McGahee and Brandon Jacobs at RB and probably Reggie Wayne and Marques Colston at WR. That might have worked for me, but I wouldn't have been as comfortable with it. The guy who did take Manning has Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones along with Marvin Harrison and Randy Moss. Again, it might work but Benson and Moss represent too much risk for me at those key positions.
10. - Jericho Cotchery. I'm still waiting on a starting K but still looking at the available WRs, I thought Cotchery represented great value here. He got 961 and 6 last year. If he repeats that, I have a very good option to cover bye weeks or fill in in case of injury. Nice pick, thank you very much. Cotchery is undervalued and will most likely be someone's WR2 or a high WR3 next year.
11. - Tatum Bell. I have had my eye on Michael Turner and Ladell Betts, who were both available, for RB4s, but Tatum Bell has at least six weeks to establish himself as the starter in Detroit if Kevin Jones starts the season on the PuP list as expected. A starting RB in the 11th was just impossible to pass up. Bell is undervalued. Sure, he's very unlikely to be a stud, but there's not many better risks for RB4s. Jerious Norwood, another RB4 on my board was not available but I would have passed on him anyway as the coaches plan to give Dunn the opportunity to keep his job.
12.-15. - Stephen Gostkowski, Matt Stover, Minnesota and Jason Campbell.
Picking kickers is mostly about picking the team they kick for. I never heard of Gostkowski before, but if he kicks for New England, he's bound to get his opportunities. Stover was the #6 kicker on Yahoo last year and the offense should improve this year, which also equals more opportunities. The ideal situation is to find an offense that can move the chains easily but struggles to punch it in. Jason Hansen of Detroit might be that golden kicker this year.
As for Minnesota and Campbell, both are very undervalued and backups. If I completely miss their value, who cares.
Monday, August 27, 2007
Draft Secrets Vol III
The season draws near. Your draft is this week. Time to check your lists and make your final plans. Your season is on the line (maybe some money too.) RELAX. Here is the third and final installment of time tested draft secrets. Read and winning will be part of your future. Good Luck!
Believe the Pros.
Some guys spend hours planning, rating and plotting. Find a prognosticator (pro) and trust what he/she is saying about the draft. Let their hours of study and endless resources work for you. That is their JOB. Look at some of the sample drafts. It may expose someone that you have not been considering. Of course you should have some idea who you are considering, but don’t waste numerous hours with it. You will just wrap yourself around the axel and become stuck on specific players because you have decided that they may are better than what the pros are saying. You are not smarter that they are. See Be Flexible.
Look For Gems.
This is my biggest secret. In every draft I am looking for a late round gem. That guy that no one is talking about. I like to surprise the field with those picks. I have not failed to grab a very productive player in that manner. A couple of years ago, everyone was talking about the RB tandem of Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown out of Auburn. They were high visibility on a National Championship contending team. But quietly, in the great white north, two RBs labored for a mid of the conference team. They silently picked up 1,000 yards EACH, first time in NCAA history, for a year. Who? Marion Barber III and Lawrence Maroney. Barber was available on a decent team, the Cowboys. But they still had their current feature back. I took him with little return his first year. Maroney had another great year in college and was drafted by New England. A perfect fit. He was my gem. I got him in round 11. And he produced. Another example was Willis McGahee. He suffered a serious knee injury and missed his first year in the pros. The next year no one was talking about him. Knee injury for a RB is not a good thing. I took him in the 12th round. He was great. Let’s see where he goes this year.
Make the Late Rounds Count.
The late rounds in the draft, most guys are just filling their position needs with bodies. Make them count. Depth is important. I see lots of teams that have great front line guys but no depth. One injury and they are toast. I was battling with a team for the league lead last year and he suffered a key loss. He probably would not have won the regular season, but was in good shape to make the playoffs. Four straight losses and he was watching boring week 15 football. Grab a solid backup defense. Who is left that has some punch? Get that gem.
Know who you like as a Team.
Do you like Shanahan and the Broncos? How about Belechik? Are the 49ers going in the right direction? Is it their style, their coach, the frenzy of their fans, or are they just plain good? Know what you like and draft from those teams. I personally didn’t like Denny Green. His teams underachieved in Minny and in the desert. I would never draft anyone from his teams. They always underperformed. It may not be that players fault. They may be that gem in later seasons, when properly coached.
Made a Bad Pick? Don’t Panic.
I was in a draft where a new guy picked a kicker with his # 1 pick. Being the understanding Commissioner, I suggested that he reconsider and that I would allow him to change his pick. He declined. He also made the playoffs. If a pick goes bad or you have an early injury, the season is not over. Don’t make a foolish trade just to fill that sudden void. Stay the course. Every team has a weak spot somewhere. Fill as best you can or use that solid late round draft pick (depth) to fill in. You will survive.
Get the Best at a Position.
So you don’t have the best RB or the best WR or QB. But you have the best Defense, TE and K. You are a long way towards winning it all. I believe that if I have a shot at getting the best at a given position, I’m going to get him. He is the best because he has a track record. The odds of him doing it again this year are good. It is not a gamble. You know you have a solid producer at that position. One less place to worry about. One extra point: Do not forget to pick a strong defense. Many FF guys leave that until last. Last year in both leagues I had a strong defense. Many games were decided by the points put up by my defense and the lack of then by my opponent. The difference can be 20 points or more.
Believe the Pros.
Some guys spend hours planning, rating and plotting. Find a prognosticator (pro) and trust what he/she is saying about the draft. Let their hours of study and endless resources work for you. That is their JOB. Look at some of the sample drafts. It may expose someone that you have not been considering. Of course you should have some idea who you are considering, but don’t waste numerous hours with it. You will just wrap yourself around the axel and become stuck on specific players because you have decided that they may are better than what the pros are saying. You are not smarter that they are. See Be Flexible.
Look For Gems.
This is my biggest secret. In every draft I am looking for a late round gem. That guy that no one is talking about. I like to surprise the field with those picks. I have not failed to grab a very productive player in that manner. A couple of years ago, everyone was talking about the RB tandem of Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown out of Auburn. They were high visibility on a National Championship contending team. But quietly, in the great white north, two RBs labored for a mid of the conference team. They silently picked up 1,000 yards EACH, first time in NCAA history, for a year. Who? Marion Barber III and Lawrence Maroney. Barber was available on a decent team, the Cowboys. But they still had their current feature back. I took him with little return his first year. Maroney had another great year in college and was drafted by New England. A perfect fit. He was my gem. I got him in round 11. And he produced. Another example was Willis McGahee. He suffered a serious knee injury and missed his first year in the pros. The next year no one was talking about him. Knee injury for a RB is not a good thing. I took him in the 12th round. He was great. Let’s see where he goes this year.
Make the Late Rounds Count.
The late rounds in the draft, most guys are just filling their position needs with bodies. Make them count. Depth is important. I see lots of teams that have great front line guys but no depth. One injury and they are toast. I was battling with a team for the league lead last year and he suffered a key loss. He probably would not have won the regular season, but was in good shape to make the playoffs. Four straight losses and he was watching boring week 15 football. Grab a solid backup defense. Who is left that has some punch? Get that gem.
Know who you like as a Team.
Do you like Shanahan and the Broncos? How about Belechik? Are the 49ers going in the right direction? Is it their style, their coach, the frenzy of their fans, or are they just plain good? Know what you like and draft from those teams. I personally didn’t like Denny Green. His teams underachieved in Minny and in the desert. I would never draft anyone from his teams. They always underperformed. It may not be that players fault. They may be that gem in later seasons, when properly coached.
Made a Bad Pick? Don’t Panic.
I was in a draft where a new guy picked a kicker with his # 1 pick. Being the understanding Commissioner, I suggested that he reconsider and that I would allow him to change his pick. He declined. He also made the playoffs. If a pick goes bad or you have an early injury, the season is not over. Don’t make a foolish trade just to fill that sudden void. Stay the course. Every team has a weak spot somewhere. Fill as best you can or use that solid late round draft pick (depth) to fill in. You will survive.
Get the Best at a Position.
So you don’t have the best RB or the best WR or QB. But you have the best Defense, TE and K. You are a long way towards winning it all. I believe that if I have a shot at getting the best at a given position, I’m going to get him. He is the best because he has a track record. The odds of him doing it again this year are good. It is not a gamble. You know you have a solid producer at that position. One less place to worry about. One extra point: Do not forget to pick a strong defense. Many FF guys leave that until last. Last year in both leagues I had a strong defense. Many games were decided by the points put up by my defense and the lack of then by my opponent. The difference can be 20 points or more.
Sunday, August 26, 2007
Roger Rotter, Bandwagon Analyst
Roger Rotter, Foxsports' Fantasy Editor, writes here that you shouldn't draft Steve McNair and that you should pick Chad Johnson before Edgerrin James.
Very bold analysis, Roger. I was reading his column and found myself wondering "Who the heck is drafting Steve McNair and Trent Green?" These are two bust candidates of Roger's. (He recommends you take Peyton Manning or Drew Brees instead. Okay, Manning and Brees ahead of McNair and Green was sarcasm - that's too obvious even for for Roger.)
When I had the thought: "Is anyone really drafting Cedric Benson ahead of Steve Smith, Marvin Harrison and Chad Johnson?" and, "Who is taking Edge in the second?" I knew it was time to check whether Roger was going about three-quarters of an inch out onto a very large limb or whether he really knew of a trend that I didn't.
Turns out that on Foxsports and Yahoo - almost no one is selecting Cedric Benson ahead of said wide receivers. And on Yahoo, Edge is almost a 5th round pick (average 4.9 rds). In his defense, Foxsports fantasy footballers are taking Benson just three picks after Chad Johson on average. And that somehow, the fantasy nation residents on Foxsports are taking Edge on average with the 29th and a half pick. But almost no one is taking Green, Roger, either on your site or at Yahoo. Though, strangely, McNair is taken in more than 80% of your leagues and just 10% of Yahoo's.
Roger, be a little bolder. Almost no one is passing elite WRs up to pick Cedric Benson.
But I do have a question. How in the world is McNair taken 80% of the time on Foxsports and 10% of the time in Yahoo? That's not even close. What the heck? Are Foxsport's default rankings that out of whack? The might be. I see that Kenny Irons, a rookie, second string running back on IR, is listed as the 111th best player according to your rankings. - a 10th round pick in 12 team leagues - ahead of a half dozen starting TEs grouped together starting around 123.
Very bold analysis, Roger. I was reading his column and found myself wondering "Who the heck is drafting Steve McNair and Trent Green?" These are two bust candidates of Roger's. (He recommends you take Peyton Manning or Drew Brees instead. Okay, Manning and Brees ahead of McNair and Green was sarcasm - that's too obvious even for for Roger.)
When I had the thought: "Is anyone really drafting Cedric Benson ahead of Steve Smith, Marvin Harrison and Chad Johnson?" and, "Who is taking Edge in the second?" I knew it was time to check whether Roger was going about three-quarters of an inch out onto a very large limb or whether he really knew of a trend that I didn't.
Turns out that on Foxsports and Yahoo - almost no one is selecting Cedric Benson ahead of said wide receivers. And on Yahoo, Edge is almost a 5th round pick (average 4.9 rds). In his defense, Foxsports fantasy footballers are taking Benson just three picks after Chad Johson on average. And that somehow, the fantasy nation residents on Foxsports are taking Edge on average with the 29th and a half pick. But almost no one is taking Green, Roger, either on your site or at Yahoo. Though, strangely, McNair is taken in more than 80% of your leagues and just 10% of Yahoo's.
Roger, be a little bolder. Almost no one is passing elite WRs up to pick Cedric Benson.
But I do have a question. How in the world is McNair taken 80% of the time on Foxsports and 10% of the time in Yahoo? That's not even close. What the heck? Are Foxsport's default rankings that out of whack? The might be. I see that Kenny Irons, a rookie, second string running back on IR, is listed as the 111th best player according to your rankings. - a 10th round pick in 12 team leagues - ahead of a half dozen starting TEs grouped together starting around 123.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Jax at Green Bay
Via the miracle of TiVo, I just watched most of the first half of the Jacksonville, Green Bay game.
Donald Driver injured an ankle. No news yet on how serious.
Brett Favre looks like the second best QB on the roster. It's possible that it was a timing issue between him and Jennings.
James Jones didn't seem to have the same problem. The rookie from San Jose State looked great catching balls from both Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Looks like the future to me.
Brandon Jackson looked like a reserve running back or maybe a third down back. He can catch and block, but he's not quick to the hole and showed no flash in the open field. I don't think I saw him juke anyone or break a tackle for that matter. I'd look to Lamont Jordan before taking Jackson.
Byron Leftwich looked okay. His completion percentage was about 33% if I recall and would have been higher if not for all the drops. If there's one receiver to have on the roster, it's probably Dennis Northcutt based on what little I've seen of the Jags.
Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew both looked good. I am afraid to take either one except maybe Jones Drew at a value. He'll get the TDs again, but expecting another 16 is a tad optimistic.
Donald Driver injured an ankle. No news yet on how serious.
Brett Favre looks like the second best QB on the roster. It's possible that it was a timing issue between him and Jennings.
James Jones didn't seem to have the same problem. The rookie from San Jose State looked great catching balls from both Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Looks like the future to me.
Brandon Jackson looked like a reserve running back or maybe a third down back. He can catch and block, but he's not quick to the hole and showed no flash in the open field. I don't think I saw him juke anyone or break a tackle for that matter. I'd look to Lamont Jordan before taking Jackson.
Byron Leftwich looked okay. His completion percentage was about 33% if I recall and would have been higher if not for all the drops. If there's one receiver to have on the roster, it's probably Dennis Northcutt based on what little I've seen of the Jags.
Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew both looked good. I am afraid to take either one except maybe Jones Drew at a value. He'll get the TDs again, but expecting another 16 is a tad optimistic.
Some Catsup for the Mustard Man
Darn work! I'm starving now but taking a few minutes of my lunch just to keep the blog updated.
The bombers checked in and promised to start posting again. Maybe he can tell us how his team is going to dominate the auction league.
Some news from around the league:
LJ is back with contract in hand but says he may not be 100% for the start of the regular season. What the heck? You want LT money but can't mix in a few wind sprints during your hold out? I have never cared much for LJ's personality, so this is one more brick in that load. When his YPC is lower than 4.0 this year due to 9-man fronts and a rebuilding OL, we'll get to hear his whine coast to coast.
There are rumblings of a TD vulture in NE! The sky is falling. Dang it. Laurence Maroney wasn't in the top 5 on my list of RBs, but I projected his stats as high as third for RBs. (Potential versus risk is the cause for that disparity.) If he loses 6 or 7 touchdowns to a vulture, that's going to bite.
Eli's in the news, which reminds me to not get too down on the Giants. Eli has produces 24 TDs each of the last two years. I saw someone flat out drop Plaxico Burress on a free league already. Plax had 990 and 10 last year and 1200 and 7 the year before. Helloooo. Stud? No. Keeper? Yes. It's a similar story for Shockey. He's 'let down' Fantasy Nation, but he's still a very decent TE, with 620 and 7 last year and better than that the year before.
Adios, Ron Mexico.
The fantasy implications at this point are slim, but the Falcons will be better than people think. Look smart and get off the Falcons-are-getting-the-first-draft-pick-next-year bandwagon now. Petrino's offense relies on passing QBs. Vicks completion percentage: 53.8. Harrington's: 55.2. And Harrington's came in pre-Martz DETROIT and Nick Saban's awful MIAMI. I'll give the guy the benefit of the doubt.
what else...
Devery Henderson is nursing a hammy, along with a handful of other WRs, including Randy Moss, I think. Just check your lists again and consider that a WR with hamstring problems will probably miss a couple games.
Culpepper is probably going to start in Oakland.
Lamont Jordan is the starting Oakland RB, at least for the first several games while Dominic Rhodes serves his suspension.
Ronnie Brown is, allegedly, in competition for the starting RB job. I don't believe it. He is too good for that team. If you believe in karma, he kicked cats when he was younger or something.
Brandon Jackson is in as RB1 in Green Bay. I don't have a good feeling that Jackson is going to necessarily get 1200 yards and 10 or anything like that, but as a RB3 or 4 for cheap, he'll fill in a bye week.
Time for a sub, I think.
The bombers checked in and promised to start posting again. Maybe he can tell us how his team is going to dominate the auction league.
Some news from around the league:
LJ is back with contract in hand but says he may not be 100% for the start of the regular season. What the heck? You want LT money but can't mix in a few wind sprints during your hold out? I have never cared much for LJ's personality, so this is one more brick in that load. When his YPC is lower than 4.0 this year due to 9-man fronts and a rebuilding OL, we'll get to hear his whine coast to coast.
There are rumblings of a TD vulture in NE! The sky is falling. Dang it. Laurence Maroney wasn't in the top 5 on my list of RBs, but I projected his stats as high as third for RBs. (Potential versus risk is the cause for that disparity.) If he loses 6 or 7 touchdowns to a vulture, that's going to bite.
Eli's in the news, which reminds me to not get too down on the Giants. Eli has produces 24 TDs each of the last two years. I saw someone flat out drop Plaxico Burress on a free league already. Plax had 990 and 10 last year and 1200 and 7 the year before. Helloooo. Stud? No. Keeper? Yes. It's a similar story for Shockey. He's 'let down' Fantasy Nation, but he's still a very decent TE, with 620 and 7 last year and better than that the year before.
Adios, Ron Mexico.
The fantasy implications at this point are slim, but the Falcons will be better than people think. Look smart and get off the Falcons-are-getting-the-first-draft-pick-next-year bandwagon now. Petrino's offense relies on passing QBs. Vicks completion percentage: 53.8. Harrington's: 55.2. And Harrington's came in pre-Martz DETROIT and Nick Saban's awful MIAMI. I'll give the guy the benefit of the doubt.
what else...
Devery Henderson is nursing a hammy, along with a handful of other WRs, including Randy Moss, I think. Just check your lists again and consider that a WR with hamstring problems will probably miss a couple games.
Culpepper is probably going to start in Oakland.
Lamont Jordan is the starting Oakland RB, at least for the first several games while Dominic Rhodes serves his suspension.
Ronnie Brown is, allegedly, in competition for the starting RB job. I don't believe it. He is too good for that team. If you believe in karma, he kicked cats when he was younger or something.
Brandon Jackson is in as RB1 in Green Bay. I don't have a good feeling that Jackson is going to necessarily get 1200 yards and 10 or anything like that, but as a RB3 or 4 for cheap, he'll fill in a bye week.
Time for a sub, I think.
Sunday, August 19, 2007
THE Fantasy Draft Recap
My posting has been declining lately for a few reasons - busy at work, Charter Cable company employee(s) cutting my cable while installing a neighbor's and taking three days to fix it, and above all, preparing for my own auction fantasy draft in one of two leagues that I will really care about.
It's a 12-team league, featuring the Bombers as seasoned auction draft experts and myself with a grand total of two auctions under my belt prior to Friday followed by 10 other guys with between zero and one draft's worth of experience. Additionally, at least one participant is a poker player who won the league last year in part by using his people-reading skills to steal key sleepers from some of us late in the draft. Now I know a poker face is key to auction drafting.
It was interesting sitting at the draft and watching QBs go for $30 or more with a $100 cap. The Bombers and I gave each other wide-eyed looks of disbelief to watch top WRs and QBs go for as much or more than some top shelf running backs. However, that did work to advantage. Both the poker player and myself, sitting at the same table, decided to put up big name players and get the bidding running high. I forget the player, but said poker man's poker face failed when he very nearly ended up with an expensive one he didn't want. I saw him relax when his bid was upped as the hammer was going down. (I kept my bids to a less disastrous amount - I may not have wanted Steve Smith, for example, but at $8 or $9, it would have been okay and he was sure to go for much more.)
The most disappointing two moments of the night were being outbid by the Bombers for Steven Jackson and Travis Henry. So much for plan A.
Among the most amusing comments were: "You do realize there's a $100 cap, right?" and; "Did someone get a memo I missed?" as the Bombers and I were furiously bidding on Henry, who no doubt isn't on many 'must-have' lists.
Among the scariest moments were, one: sitting there with no players on my team, all the studs gone, and second; having the same needs as the poker player when he has about as much cap room left. When the studs are gone, you find yourself wondering how confident you really are in your list. And I had visions of paying way too much for my list of breakout candidates. Thankfully, the poker player had time to do his own research this year. (He showed up to be the auctioneer last year and was pressed into playing.)
To the point, my team consists of, with dollar values beside them from memory:
Jon Kitna - $7
Jason Campbell - $2
Laurence Maroney - $17
Thomas Jones - $16
Brandon Jacobs - $11
Tatum Bell - $3
TJ Houshmandzadeh - $7
Terrell Owens - $11
Reggie Brown - $7
Deion Branch - $3
Chris Cooley - $3
Jason Witten - $3
Adam Vinatieri - $4
Jason Hansen - $1
New England - $3
Pittsburgh - $2
The Bombers and I shared the observation that the roster is deep, but lacks a game-breaking stud. I'll weather any injury or two decently and should still make the playoffs, but without the stud, winning the trophy will be a challenge.
What I need is a stud to emerge from the roster, which is possible. I expect Kitna, Maroney, Houshmanzadeh, TO, Cooley, Witten, Vinatieri, Hansen and New England to all have legitimate shots at finishing in the top five of their positions and all should finish in or near the top 10. Additionally, I think Jones, Jacobs, and Brown have shots to finish near the top 10.
In retrospect, given the number of good players that went very cheaply late in the draft (Tatum Bell for $3, Edgerrin James for $10, WRs in my top 25 for under $3), I should have went harder after Steven Jackson, who I feel is the best combination of security in terms of production, competition for carries, and injury risk on the RB board.
I also let Willie Parker and Willis McGahee go too cheaply. I would rather have had either of those than Thomas Jones and in retrospect I should have paid for Parker or McGahee and counted on my research to find a cheaper WR3 than Reggie Brown. (On my own roster Deoin Branch for $3 is a great gamble. The Bombers got Braylon Edwards for a buck. There were many others.)
One mistake - late in the draft when things were going too fast and I was trying to keep my notes up, I bid $2 on Pittsburgh. I'm not really sure why, actually. Somewhere in my subconscious, something misfired and must have thought that Pittsburgh was too good to pass up. When the hammer fell, I wondered what I had done. Worse, the Steelers have the same bye week as the Patriots. At least I have 10 weeks to fix that.
Here's looking forward to a season of hope - hoping my roster of potential bears enough fruit.
It's a 12-team league, featuring the Bombers as seasoned auction draft experts and myself with a grand total of two auctions under my belt prior to Friday followed by 10 other guys with between zero and one draft's worth of experience. Additionally, at least one participant is a poker player who won the league last year in part by using his people-reading skills to steal key sleepers from some of us late in the draft. Now I know a poker face is key to auction drafting.
It was interesting sitting at the draft and watching QBs go for $30 or more with a $100 cap. The Bombers and I gave each other wide-eyed looks of disbelief to watch top WRs and QBs go for as much or more than some top shelf running backs. However, that did work to advantage. Both the poker player and myself, sitting at the same table, decided to put up big name players and get the bidding running high. I forget the player, but said poker man's poker face failed when he very nearly ended up with an expensive one he didn't want. I saw him relax when his bid was upped as the hammer was going down. (I kept my bids to a less disastrous amount - I may not have wanted Steve Smith, for example, but at $8 or $9, it would have been okay and he was sure to go for much more.)
The most disappointing two moments of the night were being outbid by the Bombers for Steven Jackson and Travis Henry. So much for plan A.
Among the most amusing comments were: "You do realize there's a $100 cap, right?" and; "Did someone get a memo I missed?" as the Bombers and I were furiously bidding on Henry, who no doubt isn't on many 'must-have' lists.
Among the scariest moments were, one: sitting there with no players on my team, all the studs gone, and second; having the same needs as the poker player when he has about as much cap room left. When the studs are gone, you find yourself wondering how confident you really are in your list. And I had visions of paying way too much for my list of breakout candidates. Thankfully, the poker player had time to do his own research this year. (He showed up to be the auctioneer last year and was pressed into playing.)
To the point, my team consists of, with dollar values beside them from memory:
Jon Kitna - $7
Jason Campbell - $2
Laurence Maroney - $17
Thomas Jones - $16
Brandon Jacobs - $11
Tatum Bell - $3
TJ Houshmandzadeh - $7
Terrell Owens - $11
Reggie Brown - $7
Deion Branch - $3
Chris Cooley - $3
Jason Witten - $3
Adam Vinatieri - $4
Jason Hansen - $1
New England - $3
Pittsburgh - $2
The Bombers and I shared the observation that the roster is deep, but lacks a game-breaking stud. I'll weather any injury or two decently and should still make the playoffs, but without the stud, winning the trophy will be a challenge.
What I need is a stud to emerge from the roster, which is possible. I expect Kitna, Maroney, Houshmanzadeh, TO, Cooley, Witten, Vinatieri, Hansen and New England to all have legitimate shots at finishing in the top five of their positions and all should finish in or near the top 10. Additionally, I think Jones, Jacobs, and Brown have shots to finish near the top 10.
In retrospect, given the number of good players that went very cheaply late in the draft (Tatum Bell for $3, Edgerrin James for $10, WRs in my top 25 for under $3), I should have went harder after Steven Jackson, who I feel is the best combination of security in terms of production, competition for carries, and injury risk on the RB board.
I also let Willie Parker and Willis McGahee go too cheaply. I would rather have had either of those than Thomas Jones and in retrospect I should have paid for Parker or McGahee and counted on my research to find a cheaper WR3 than Reggie Brown. (On my own roster Deoin Branch for $3 is a great gamble. The Bombers got Braylon Edwards for a buck. There were many others.)
One mistake - late in the draft when things were going too fast and I was trying to keep my notes up, I bid $2 on Pittsburgh. I'm not really sure why, actually. Somewhere in my subconscious, something misfired and must have thought that Pittsburgh was too good to pass up. When the hammer fell, I wondered what I had done. Worse, the Steelers have the same bye week as the Patriots. At least I have 10 weeks to fix that.
Here's looking forward to a season of hope - hoping my roster of potential bears enough fruit.
Mangini Wants Thomas Jones On His Fantasy Team
From Rotoworld:
"Jets coach Eric Mangini was reportedly "livid" when he heard agent Drew Rosenhaus disclosed Thomas Jones' calf injury last week.
Rosenhaus said the calf strain was a "week-to-week" injury and that Jones would be back by opening day. Mangini reportedly lashed out at his players, threatening to fine them if their agents speak out about injuries to the media."
Mangini apparently didn't want the word out that Thomas Jones would be good to go for the regular season.
Seriously, I can understand a team wanting to be less than completely forthcoming about injuries, but it is Thomas Jones' leg. Shouldn't he be allowed to talk about it?
"Jets coach Eric Mangini was reportedly "livid" when he heard agent Drew Rosenhaus disclosed Thomas Jones' calf injury last week.
Rosenhaus said the calf strain was a "week-to-week" injury and that Jones would be back by opening day. Mangini reportedly lashed out at his players, threatening to fine them if their agents speak out about injuries to the media."
Mangini apparently didn't want the word out that Thomas Jones would be good to go for the regular season.
Seriously, I can understand a team wanting to be less than completely forthcoming about injuries, but it is Thomas Jones' leg. Shouldn't he be allowed to talk about it?
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Ron Mexico Update
Sure, his season is toast and probably his career. But did you hear that he stole the pit bulls and sold them eBay to buy missiles from Iran? FoxNews reports.
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
More Preseason Ruminations
1 - I take back most of what I said about the Buccaneers players being worth drafting. Not only does Cadillac have a bad back, but Mike Alstott is probably retiring due to injury and Michael Clayton is buried on the depth chart. Oh, and they looked terrible in their pre-season game this weekend. If you take Garcia, do it in the 15th round or for a dollar in an auction and then only if you're very confident in your QB1. Cadillac may still be a value pick - he should get 900-1100 yards and 6 or so TDs. Just forget the WRs.
2 - The Niners and the Broncos first teams both looked might sharp on offense, moving the ball at will against each other in their game. Alex Smith actually completed a pass against Champ Bailey thanks to a laser-accurate, 26-yard bullet to (I think) Arnaz Battle. Darrell Jackson caught a nice pass for 18 yards, too. I'm up on Alex Smith, Darrell Jackson, Frank Gore (who didn't play, but his backups had good games), Jay Cutler, Javon Walker and Travis Henry. Henry, by the way, got to be a workhorse and went 5 rushes for 27 with back to back goal line carries, the second of which scored. I'm still down on their defenses, though I have some expectation that Denver, with two outstanding CBs will be good by the regular season.
3 - Matt Stover went 5 for 5 including two 50 yarders and three other FGs. Willis McGahee went 4 rushes for 20 yards. I didn't see the game, but the backups also ran well. That bodes well for the OL being good, still, as if that were a question mark. McNair was 6 of 8 passing and a TD. I still think McNair has limited upside, but McGahee should do well. Stover, too, obviously. The Eagles in that game sat McNabb and gave Westbrook 3 carries for 4 yards and... a 23 yard reception. Westbrook will get his stats in the regular season.
4 - San Diego and Seattle both looked sharp on offense. Hasselbeck put a nice ball in the perfect spot for Branch on a TD completion. Alexander only toted the ball twice, but Maurice Morris ran well. Again, that bodes well for the starter. And Auburn graduate Ben Obamanu made his case for playing time at WR with 5 receipts for 83 yards and a touchdown. (No, don't draft him yet.) Rivers looked smart and accurate, completing 5 of 7 for the Chargers. Darren Sproles appears to be making the case that Michael Turner is expendable - both ran excellently while LT looked dapper in his NFL apparel jacket and cap on the sideline. Malcolm Floyd put question marks all over the assumption that Vincent Jackson is the #1 receiver in San Diego.
5 - Didn't see any decent clips of the Arizona/Oakland game, but Leinart went 5-11 and Culpepper was 5-12. Considering this came against the defenses of Oakland and Arizona, respectively, I'd be very worried. I've already dropped Boldin and Fitz in my rankings several spots below where they are likely to be drafted. Marcell Shipp ran well, but JJ Arrington... not so much. With a mixed bag like that, and questions at the QB slot, it's still hard to be high on Edge.
6 - Miami's OL still horrible. Poor Ronnie Brown. Trent Green got booed. Sucks to be Miami fans and will probably suck to have Miami players on your fantasy team. Drop Ronnie some. He'll still get 1,000 or so, and probably 8-10 TDs, maybe a little less. What a shame.
7 - Rex Grossman was throwing darts, according to one analyst I heard. The AP reports: "Rex Grossman looked sharp in two series and completed his first eight passes. He found first-round pick Greg Olsen for a 5-yard gain before hitting Muhsin Muhammad for 10 yards on the first drive." And Schaub didn't look so hot. It's not his fault necessarily because like Miami, the OL sucks the team did little to nothing to fix it.
2 - The Niners and the Broncos first teams both looked might sharp on offense, moving the ball at will against each other in their game. Alex Smith actually completed a pass against Champ Bailey thanks to a laser-accurate, 26-yard bullet to (I think) Arnaz Battle. Darrell Jackson caught a nice pass for 18 yards, too. I'm up on Alex Smith, Darrell Jackson, Frank Gore (who didn't play, but his backups had good games), Jay Cutler, Javon Walker and Travis Henry. Henry, by the way, got to be a workhorse and went 5 rushes for 27 with back to back goal line carries, the second of which scored. I'm still down on their defenses, though I have some expectation that Denver, with two outstanding CBs will be good by the regular season.
3 - Matt Stover went 5 for 5 including two 50 yarders and three other FGs. Willis McGahee went 4 rushes for 20 yards. I didn't see the game, but the backups also ran well. That bodes well for the OL being good, still, as if that were a question mark. McNair was 6 of 8 passing and a TD. I still think McNair has limited upside, but McGahee should do well. Stover, too, obviously. The Eagles in that game sat McNabb and gave Westbrook 3 carries for 4 yards and... a 23 yard reception. Westbrook will get his stats in the regular season.
4 - San Diego and Seattle both looked sharp on offense. Hasselbeck put a nice ball in the perfect spot for Branch on a TD completion. Alexander only toted the ball twice, but Maurice Morris ran well. Again, that bodes well for the starter. And Auburn graduate Ben Obamanu made his case for playing time at WR with 5 receipts for 83 yards and a touchdown. (No, don't draft him yet.) Rivers looked smart and accurate, completing 5 of 7 for the Chargers. Darren Sproles appears to be making the case that Michael Turner is expendable - both ran excellently while LT looked dapper in his NFL apparel jacket and cap on the sideline. Malcolm Floyd put question marks all over the assumption that Vincent Jackson is the #1 receiver in San Diego.
5 - Didn't see any decent clips of the Arizona/Oakland game, but Leinart went 5-11 and Culpepper was 5-12. Considering this came against the defenses of Oakland and Arizona, respectively, I'd be very worried. I've already dropped Boldin and Fitz in my rankings several spots below where they are likely to be drafted. Marcell Shipp ran well, but JJ Arrington... not so much. With a mixed bag like that, and questions at the QB slot, it's still hard to be high on Edge.
6 - Miami's OL still horrible. Poor Ronnie Brown. Trent Green got booed. Sucks to be Miami fans and will probably suck to have Miami players on your fantasy team. Drop Ronnie some. He'll still get 1,000 or so, and probably 8-10 TDs, maybe a little less. What a shame.
7 - Rex Grossman was throwing darts, according to one analyst I heard. The AP reports: "Rex Grossman looked sharp in two series and completed his first eight passes. He found first-round pick Greg Olsen for a 5-yard gain before hitting Muhsin Muhammad for 10 yards on the first drive." And Schaub didn't look so hot. It's not his fault necessarily because like Miami, the OL sucks the team did little to nothing to fix it.
Saturday, August 11, 2007
More LJ Hate
Without further comment. I'll just credit draftsharks.com, which I discovered today.
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Thomas Jones To Share The Load
I keep hearing this one, too. Sooner or later you have to believe some of it. The Jets ran the ball an awful lot last year. (491 times - seventh most.) I think Jones will still get the lion's share of the carries. Just 300 caries could get him 1200 yards or more. And he'll get his share of the goal line attempts, too, if not most of them.
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Clinton Portis' Knee Still Issue
Ladell Betts is the back to get in Washington. I believe it more every day.
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Kevin Jones To Miss 6 Weeks
Tatum Bell is looking better and better. If he doesn't flop, it will be hard for KJ to get back on the field if he does return after the 6th game.
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Friday, August 10, 2007
Ahh.... The Preseason
First off, boo on the NFL for keeping two of the first three pre-season games on the NFL N. I refuse to pay for news on the internet. I refuse to pay for sports content on ESPN.com and though I really want the NFL N, I'm not willing to pay what my cable company wants me to pay for it and the 837 other channels I need to buy to get it. So I'm a little annoyed with the NFL for holding back on me.
That said, the Bills look just awful and the Saints, playing against the awful looking Bills, looked fabulous. The first team did anyway, whatever the final score was. Brees was 12 for 14 or something like that. His backup was almost as good. Devery Henderson got three receptions for 52 yards. Reggie Bush had 41 yards on 5 touches (three receptions, two rushes).
The Bills started out fine, stuffing Deuce on a couple run plays, but the Saints opened up the offense and moved the chains seemingly at will. On offense, the Bills' first team appeared a long way off from being competitive. The OL couldn't spring Anthony Thomas and if Marshawn Lynch did anything, I missed it while flipping back and forth to the Atlanta/Jets game. I did learn that Losman can scramble pretty good for a white guy. No one was open, but hey, you take what you can get.
What I learned from the Jets game is that Thomas Jones is going to be a stud and the Jets wanted to see him prove it. His stats weren't awesome, at 8 for 27 and a TD, but the TD was a 1 yard plunge and he ran for the first 8 Jets plays. So he averaged almost four yards a down on the 7 other plays while the offense did nothing but pound the rock.
More importantly, as an Atlanta resident and someone with at least a little love for the local team, Harrington gave me reason to think the offense will be fine. The defense and special teams I'm not going to talk about. Just awful. But Harrington was calm and poised, going 6 for 9 and 88 yards (almost 10 YPA!). More importantly as a fan, the play calling was innovative, a mix of short quick passes, hits up the field and a good mix of runs, too, including a - shock! - run up the middle by Jerious Norwood for a 10 yard TD! The 7th round RB Jason Snelling looked almost as good as I hoped. No offense to Dunn - he's a wonderful guy and local hero - but he's just insurance. Norwood is the future and I think Snelling is good enough to spell him when needed. And Atlanta rookie WR Laurent Robinson looked pretty good. If someone says the Falcons are only going to win 5 games this year - take the over and bet him a Coca-Cola.
Did I mention the Bills looked awful?
That said, the Bills look just awful and the Saints, playing against the awful looking Bills, looked fabulous. The first team did anyway, whatever the final score was. Brees was 12 for 14 or something like that. His backup was almost as good. Devery Henderson got three receptions for 52 yards. Reggie Bush had 41 yards on 5 touches (three receptions, two rushes).
The Bills started out fine, stuffing Deuce on a couple run plays, but the Saints opened up the offense and moved the chains seemingly at will. On offense, the Bills' first team appeared a long way off from being competitive. The OL couldn't spring Anthony Thomas and if Marshawn Lynch did anything, I missed it while flipping back and forth to the Atlanta/Jets game. I did learn that Losman can scramble pretty good for a white guy. No one was open, but hey, you take what you can get.
What I learned from the Jets game is that Thomas Jones is going to be a stud and the Jets wanted to see him prove it. His stats weren't awesome, at 8 for 27 and a TD, but the TD was a 1 yard plunge and he ran for the first 8 Jets plays. So he averaged almost four yards a down on the 7 other plays while the offense did nothing but pound the rock.
More importantly, as an Atlanta resident and someone with at least a little love for the local team, Harrington gave me reason to think the offense will be fine. The defense and special teams I'm not going to talk about. Just awful. But Harrington was calm and poised, going 6 for 9 and 88 yards (almost 10 YPA!). More importantly as a fan, the play calling was innovative, a mix of short quick passes, hits up the field and a good mix of runs, too, including a - shock! - run up the middle by Jerious Norwood for a 10 yard TD! The 7th round RB Jason Snelling looked almost as good as I hoped. No offense to Dunn - he's a wonderful guy and local hero - but he's just insurance. Norwood is the future and I think Snelling is good enough to spell him when needed. And Atlanta rookie WR Laurent Robinson looked pretty good. If someone says the Falcons are only going to win 5 games this year - take the over and bet him a Coca-Cola.
Did I mention the Bills looked awful?
Calvin Johnson 2 For 2
I hope you caught the slight sarcasm in the title. I'm starting to warm up to the idea that CJ is Ocho Cinco, Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, and Terrell Owens all rolled into one, except maybe better. But he's still a rookie.
He will improve the Detroit Lions, of that I have never had much doubt. It's one of the reasons I'm so high on Kitna this year. But I don't think he'll break 1,000 yards or 10 TDs.
He will improve the Detroit Lions, of that I have never had much doubt. It's one of the reasons I'm so high on Kitna this year. But I don't think he'll break 1,000 yards or 10 TDs.
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Rudi Johnson Now Safer Pick
Rookie Kenny Irons, who I was predicting to cut into Rudi Johnson's time at Cincinnati, has popped an ACL and is done for the year, according to CBS Sportsline.
Just in case you were one of the few worried that the coaches finally had a running back to spell Johnson with, you can now safely draft Johnson toward the bottom of the first round. He remains as close to a sure bet to get 1300 yards and 12 TDs as there is.
Just in case you were one of the few worried that the coaches finally had a running back to spell Johnson with, you can now safely draft Johnson toward the bottom of the first round. He remains as close to a sure bet to get 1300 yards and 12 TDs as there is.
Cadillac Williams Has Herniated Disks?
Cruising SB*Nation for player news, I saw this from Buc 'Em. Apparently Cadillac has a problem with herniated disks, according to Juiced Sports, where there is more detail here.
Two observations: 1) as a reply on Buc 'Em notes, it's not like other players in the NFL don't have chronic injuries and 2) according to one of Juiced Sports' sources, the NFL teams knew about Cadillac's back before he was drafted.
Given the fact the Bucs know and didn't get any backfield help to compete with Williams, we can deduce they aren't terribly worried about it.
The Mustard: One must assume this limits Cadillac Williams' upside. He may never get much more than 300 carries and will probably always miss a game or two per year. He's still quite a value if you can get him late, but I'm thinking he's more of a mid-to-low RB2 prospect. If you have him in dynasty leagues, you're kind of stuck. His stock is too low to trade and get value for, but when this news gets around, his stock won't be going up anytime soon.
Two observations: 1) as a reply on Buc 'Em notes, it's not like other players in the NFL don't have chronic injuries and 2) according to one of Juiced Sports' sources, the NFL teams knew about Cadillac's back before he was drafted.
Given the fact the Bucs know and didn't get any backfield help to compete with Williams, we can deduce they aren't terribly worried about it.
The Mustard: One must assume this limits Cadillac Williams' upside. He may never get much more than 300 carries and will probably always miss a game or two per year. He's still quite a value if you can get him late, but I'm thinking he's more of a mid-to-low RB2 prospect. If you have him in dynasty leagues, you're kind of stuck. His stock is too low to trade and get value for, but when this news gets around, his stock won't be going up anytime soon.
Monday, August 6, 2007
Eric Parker Out 10 Weeks
There's been a handful of injuries so far in training camp, but until I learned about Eric Parker's toe surgery on Chargers.com, nothing seemed sure to affect draft day.
Maybe you could have worred a little bit about Frank Gore's broken hand, but he's already taking handoffs. I wasn't worried.
The Mustard: Eric Parker might have been a late round WR4 or WR5 prospect as the most experienced WR on his team. Now, not so much. Don't draft him.
Phillip Rivers takes a small hit, but he didn't have that much upside anyway. Parker had exactly zero touchdowns last year but was the leading yardage gainer.
Vincent Jackson, who had 453 and 6 last year, will probably get a couple hundred more yards, along with rookie Craig Davis. Davis, however, is probably not worth gambling on at this point.
Maybe you could have worred a little bit about Frank Gore's broken hand, but he's already taking handoffs. I wasn't worried.
The Mustard: Eric Parker might have been a late round WR4 or WR5 prospect as the most experienced WR on his team. Now, not so much. Don't draft him.
Phillip Rivers takes a small hit, but he didn't have that much upside anyway. Parker had exactly zero touchdowns last year but was the leading yardage gainer.
Vincent Jackson, who had 453 and 6 last year, will probably get a couple hundred more yards, along with rookie Craig Davis. Davis, however, is probably not worth gambling on at this point.
Friday, August 3, 2007
Drew Stanton To IR, CJ Signed
The Lions put injured rookie QB Drew Stanton on IR, according to NFL.com.
Hereby ends any chance whatsoever that Jon Kitna isn't the starting QB all season, barring injury.
And Calvin Johnson is signed. The line should be better. Even if Kevin Jones is slow to return from injury, Tatum Bell is making the coaches happy. There's reason for the Lions to feel good about the odds of improving their season.
Hereby ends any chance whatsoever that Jon Kitna isn't the starting QB all season, barring injury.
And Calvin Johnson is signed. The line should be better. Even if Kevin Jones is slow to return from injury, Tatum Bell is making the coaches happy. There's reason for the Lions to feel good about the odds of improving their season.
Vince Young Not A Pansy
One expects a lineman to take up for his QB, but how often does a QB whack a safety for a hit on a wide receiver?
Vince Young, congratulations on not letting that red jersey turn into a skirt. Donnie Nickey, you're a special teams player. When the franchise QB gets in your face, do not put your hand on his chest.
Vince Young, congratulations on not letting that red jersey turn into a skirt. Donnie Nickey, you're a special teams player. When the franchise QB gets in your face, do not put your hand on his chest.
Draft Secrets Vol II
I would like to add some more of my secrets to a successful FF draft. Here are tips on my favorite position - the wide receiver. everyone tends to focus on the running backs, perhaps with good reason - they get you big points. But the RB is a known commodity. WR can make your season. Last year I didn't get Manning, but I got Wayne and Harrison, so while Manning was racking up all of those yards, I got tons of points via those guys. It is a good place to be creative. Arizona duel going to be good? How about Oakland? Outguess your league and plan on the playoffs in December. A team can win featuring WRs. So grab a top three guy and watch those points roll in.
Wide receivers:
Don’t be afraid to feature WR as your offensive power. Most guys will tell you that you gotta draft RBs. And most of the drafts I have been in are heavy in RB picks in the first few rounds. I will take a top WR over a #7 RB anytime. Sometimes the picks ahead of you dictate that you are taking WRs. Don’t panic. Last year I had two totally different teams and that won each of their leagues. One team was strong at RB, the other at WR. I didn’t get Peyton Manning, but I got the next best thing – his top two WRs, Harrison and Wayne. So while Manning was chewing up the league and picking up big FF points, so was I at WR. This has worked more than once for me.
The Best Players Available:
I believe in this notion. Especially true if you have a low 1st round pick. So you are picking 9th in a 12 team draft. Who do you take? All of the premier RBs will be gone. Probably the top QBs too. So now what? Are you doomed to be an also-ran all season? No way. There will be a gem of a player out there. He probably will not be a RB. Either way - take him. Build your team around him. Make that 2nd round pick count.
Be Flexible.
Outside of the #1 overall pick, be ready to do something different. I see lots of guys focus on one player or know their first 5 picks. That is good for me. One, it gives me an advantage to better prepare knowing what is going to be gone when my turn comes. Two, being flexible will prevent you from tipping your hand before the draft. Three, STAY FLEXIBLE! Some guys talk and try to mess with your pick by talking up a player when they don’t have any plans of taking him. But you are one step ahead of him. You are ready for whatever he does.
Wide receivers:
Don’t be afraid to feature WR as your offensive power. Most guys will tell you that you gotta draft RBs. And most of the drafts I have been in are heavy in RB picks in the first few rounds. I will take a top WR over a #7 RB anytime. Sometimes the picks ahead of you dictate that you are taking WRs. Don’t panic. Last year I had two totally different teams and that won each of their leagues. One team was strong at RB, the other at WR. I didn’t get Peyton Manning, but I got the next best thing – his top two WRs, Harrison and Wayne. So while Manning was chewing up the league and picking up big FF points, so was I at WR. This has worked more than once for me.
The Best Players Available:
I believe in this notion. Especially true if you have a low 1st round pick. So you are picking 9th in a 12 team draft. Who do you take? All of the premier RBs will be gone. Probably the top QBs too. So now what? Are you doomed to be an also-ran all season? No way. There will be a gem of a player out there. He probably will not be a RB. Either way - take him. Build your team around him. Make that 2nd round pick count.
Be Flexible.
Outside of the #1 overall pick, be ready to do something different. I see lots of guys focus on one player or know their first 5 picks. That is good for me. One, it gives me an advantage to better prepare knowing what is going to be gone when my turn comes. Two, being flexible will prevent you from tipping your hand before the draft. Three, STAY FLEXIBLE! Some guys talk and try to mess with your pick by talking up a player when they don’t have any plans of taking him. But you are one step ahead of him. You are ready for whatever he does.
Wednesday, August 1, 2007
Michael Clayton Worth A Flier
LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. (AP) - Two injury-filled seasons removed from an outstanding rookie year, Tampa Bay Buccaneers receiver Michael Clayton is healthy again and eager to hold off the competition for his starting job.
"Obviously, in this league you have to compete, you have to produce," said Clayton, who's being challenged for playing time by a group of hungry receivers that includes second-year pro Maurice Stovall and former Pro Bowl receiver David Boston.
The article quoted above off Fox Sports reminds me why I think Clayton is worth a late round flier this year - he did have a monster rookie season (1200/7) and you're supposed to get better, not worse. With Gradkowski or whatever his name was at the helm last year, no one on the team got better. Honestly, I don't remember what happened to Clayton in 2005, but he 'battled injuries all season' and was supposedly banged up last year too, ending the year on IR.
He is injury prone but that may be due to the fact he considers himself a bigger receiver whose job it is to run over defenders. Gruden has apparently told Clayton that sometimes it's best to get out of bounds or lay down and live for another play.
One more thing. Jeff Garcia is a 61% completion passer with a 4300 yard, 31 TD season on his resume. Of the three years he started all 16 games, 3300 and 21 is the worst. In the six games he saw significant action in last year, he throw for 10 TDs and 1280 yards - a pace for 27 TDs and 3400 yards over the course of a season.
The Mustard: If you need a WR4 or WR5, Michael Clayton will probably be available and worth a gamble. He has had a good season when injury free but suffered with Simms and Gradkowski under center.
Jeff Garcia is someone to keep an eye on. Looking through the Bucs' years with Gruden as coach, Brad Johnson and then Brian Griese put up some pretty decent numbers (3700/23, 3900/27, and 3800/24) until ol' Chris Simms came along.
As stated before, success of the passing game bodes well for Carnell Williams' chances of resurrecting his young career. He's worth an RB3 selection with plenty of upside and will be available in round five and maybe round six. Repeat after me, "A starting running back in round 6 is great value." Everyone remembers getting burned last year. This is the year to buy low.
"Obviously, in this league you have to compete, you have to produce," said Clayton, who's being challenged for playing time by a group of hungry receivers that includes second-year pro Maurice Stovall and former Pro Bowl receiver David Boston.
The article quoted above off Fox Sports reminds me why I think Clayton is worth a late round flier this year - he did have a monster rookie season (1200/7) and you're supposed to get better, not worse. With Gradkowski or whatever his name was at the helm last year, no one on the team got better. Honestly, I don't remember what happened to Clayton in 2005, but he 'battled injuries all season' and was supposedly banged up last year too, ending the year on IR.
He is injury prone but that may be due to the fact he considers himself a bigger receiver whose job it is to run over defenders. Gruden has apparently told Clayton that sometimes it's best to get out of bounds or lay down and live for another play.
One more thing. Jeff Garcia is a 61% completion passer with a 4300 yard, 31 TD season on his resume. Of the three years he started all 16 games, 3300 and 21 is the worst. In the six games he saw significant action in last year, he throw for 10 TDs and 1280 yards - a pace for 27 TDs and 3400 yards over the course of a season.
The Mustard: If you need a WR4 or WR5, Michael Clayton will probably be available and worth a gamble. He has had a good season when injury free but suffered with Simms and Gradkowski under center.
Jeff Garcia is someone to keep an eye on. Looking through the Bucs' years with Gruden as coach, Brad Johnson and then Brian Griese put up some pretty decent numbers (3700/23, 3900/27, and 3800/24) until ol' Chris Simms came along.
As stated before, success of the passing game bodes well for Carnell Williams' chances of resurrecting his young career. He's worth an RB3 selection with plenty of upside and will be available in round five and maybe round six. Repeat after me, "A starting running back in round 6 is great value." Everyone remembers getting burned last year. This is the year to buy low.
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