Not much sexy to say. I picked sixth in a Yahoo! league this weekend to try to snag all the players of one team as I said I would in an earlier post. It's an experiment.
At the sixth spot I figured I had an excellent shot at grabbing the Patriots, so I reached a couple spots and took Laurence Maroney, hoping to get Brady in the second, Moss in the third, Stallworth in the fourth, the defense, then Ben Watson - you get the idea. It wasn't to be as Brady went exactly one pick before mine in the second.
With seconds to adjust strategy, I went with Clinton Portis. Grabbing the rest of the Redskins, as you might guess, was not a challenge. Cooley in the third is a stretch. Drafting Randle El in the fifth is silly. I took Betts in the fourth, just in case someone else thinks he is the better back in Washington. I will start both backs as part of the experiment.
It will not, obviously, be an explosive roster, but the Skins have a fairly soft schedule this year, I believe. They'll move the ball and score touchdowns. It's the defense and kicking game that really, really scare me. You need those positions to come through for success.
I might try to aim for the Patriots again or, you know what, possibly the Steelers. Why not? Fantasy Nation is down on everyone in Pittsburgh except Willie Parker. Should be an easy draft if I go high enough in the first.
We'll see.
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Quick, Target Fast Willie Parker
A local Pittsburgh paper has a glowing puff piece on Willie Parker. That's not news. The important nugget is that his coaches do not appear to be fans of the RBBC.
They want their best players on the field until their tongues are hanging out. Willie Parker, on the advice of Hines Ward, continues to work on blocking and receiving to make his case for third down yards where, as he points out, he could get to run against spread out defenses.
It's a pre-season love article, but the elements are there to like. It's more than 'best shape of his career' and 'line is really coming together'. It's coaches saying they want their best player on the field. It's Willie Parker working on blocking schemes.
The Mustard: Feel good about taking Willie Parker in the mid-first round. In addition to everything, he has two good years behind him and that makes him a safer pick than Addai and Maroney, though I really think Addai is pretty low risk for a sophomore back, but that's another article.
They want their best players on the field until their tongues are hanging out. Willie Parker, on the advice of Hines Ward, continues to work on blocking and receiving to make his case for third down yards where, as he points out, he could get to run against spread out defenses.
It's a pre-season love article, but the elements are there to like. It's more than 'best shape of his career' and 'line is really coming together'. It's coaches saying they want their best player on the field. It's Willie Parker working on blocking schemes.
The Mustard: Feel good about taking Willie Parker in the mid-first round. In addition to everything, he has two good years behind him and that makes him a safer pick than Addai and Maroney, though I really think Addai is pretty low risk for a sophomore back, but that's another article.
Friday, July 27, 2007
Quick, Show This To Your Enemies
I like that Foxsports has a lot of free material, including fantasy football with free live scoring, bless them. But really, I have always valued their cheat sheets the least. I don't trust them. So it's no surprise that I don't like this article.
Roger Rotter is a McNabb fan. I like McNabb. But Rotter appears to argue that he should be a top tier QB if not the first QB taken.
Though McNabb is being drafted after Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer and even Marc Bulger, he was projected to pass for 4,567 yards and 32 touchdowns over a full season before his season-ending injury in the Eagles' 10th game. That would have clinched him as fantasy's top quarterback last season.
Nevermind that McNabb has completed all 16 games only 3 of his 8 seasons and is recovering from a torn ACL. He'll be good, sure. He always is. But odds are you'll be needing your QB2 more than you would prefer for such a high draft pick.
Unlike Brandon Jacobs, Droughns has shown he can handle extensive running back duties over a full season
Um-hmmm. Reuben Droughns was deemed expendable by Cleveland. In favor of Jamal Lewis.
He also tags Kevin Jones as undervalued. Ehh... maybe. But I've heard that locals expect Tatum Bell to be the starter even if Jones weren't on the physically unable to perform list with no expected date to be off of it, which he is.
Roger Rotter is a McNabb fan. I like McNabb. But Rotter appears to argue that he should be a top tier QB if not the first QB taken.
Though McNabb is being drafted after Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer and even Marc Bulger, he was projected to pass for 4,567 yards and 32 touchdowns over a full season before his season-ending injury in the Eagles' 10th game. That would have clinched him as fantasy's top quarterback last season.
Nevermind that McNabb has completed all 16 games only 3 of his 8 seasons and is recovering from a torn ACL. He'll be good, sure. He always is. But odds are you'll be needing your QB2 more than you would prefer for such a high draft pick.
Unlike Brandon Jacobs, Droughns has shown he can handle extensive running back duties over a full season
Um-hmmm. Reuben Droughns was deemed expendable by Cleveland. In favor of Jamal Lewis.
He also tags Kevin Jones as undervalued. Ehh... maybe. But I've heard that locals expect Tatum Bell to be the starter even if Jones weren't on the physically unable to perform list with no expected date to be off of it, which he is.
Jason Campbell, sleeper QB
“It’s an ongoing process,” (OC AL) Saunders said.
But he pointed to Campbell’s poise, his leadership ability, skill and work ethic. And, as he watched more tape of Campbell, Saunders considered the offseason and said, “You’ll see results.”
There's a good story here on Jason Campbell. It more or less backs up what I've already blogged - Campbell is going to be better this year. That's good news, because he wasn't terrible last year by a long shot.
The article talks in excellent detail about what a QB goes through to mature, everything from speaking clearly and confidently in the huddle to improving mechanics. One thing that interests me is that Saunders' goal for Campbell is to improve his completion percentage by 10 to 63%.
“He was performing last year on instincts and God-given ability,” Redskins offensive coordinator Al Saunders said.
Campbell has the physical tools and the mental tools and this article makes it abundantly clear he is teachable. His teammates respect him. I like him more and more.
Caveat: Campbell is Auburn grad and I'm an Auburn homer, so I probably like him a shade too much, but all in all, what's not to like in a QB that will most likely be available in the 15th round of your draft and still have all this going for him? Again, you could do worse for a QB2 and I really like his upside. Campbell will probably not finish in the top 10, but I think he'll certainly finish in the top 20 or close to it.
But he pointed to Campbell’s poise, his leadership ability, skill and work ethic. And, as he watched more tape of Campbell, Saunders considered the offseason and said, “You’ll see results.”
There's a good story here on Jason Campbell. It more or less backs up what I've already blogged - Campbell is going to be better this year. That's good news, because he wasn't terrible last year by a long shot.
The article talks in excellent detail about what a QB goes through to mature, everything from speaking clearly and confidently in the huddle to improving mechanics. One thing that interests me is that Saunders' goal for Campbell is to improve his completion percentage by 10 to 63%.
“He was performing last year on instincts and God-given ability,” Redskins offensive coordinator Al Saunders said.
Campbell has the physical tools and the mental tools and this article makes it abundantly clear he is teachable. His teammates respect him. I like him more and more.
Caveat: Campbell is Auburn grad and I'm an Auburn homer, so I probably like him a shade too much, but all in all, what's not to like in a QB that will most likely be available in the 15th round of your draft and still have all this going for him? Again, you could do worse for a QB2 and I really like his upside. Campbell will probably not finish in the top 10, but I think he'll certainly finish in the top 20 or close to it.
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Peyton Manning Alert
This is a little old as far as news goes, but Colts' LT Tarik Glenn says he's had enough - his heart is no longer in football.
In watching NFL Live yesterday, I learned that Glenn is the only LT Peyton has ever had in the NFL. That Peyton was sacked just 15 times all of last year. That the Colt's OL is run by Manning at the line of scrimmage. That Glenn is serious and asking how much of a signing bonus he has to repay. And finally, that Manning is trying to talk Glenn into finishing his contract.
The Colts moved up in the draft to take OT Tony Ugoh this year, but the hope was to have him ready for next year. Moving a rookie to the line and counting on him knowing what the heck Peyton is screaming seconds before the snap is a little scary for everyone.
The Mustard: Don't you dare move Peyton Manning from the top of your draft board. But if Glenn does indeed retire, do consider what position he is worth drafting at and you might want to let him fall a spot or two from where he would normally go. In the case of auctions, drop his value a couple dollars.
In watching NFL Live yesterday, I learned that Glenn is the only LT Peyton has ever had in the NFL. That Peyton was sacked just 15 times all of last year. That the Colt's OL is run by Manning at the line of scrimmage. That Glenn is serious and asking how much of a signing bonus he has to repay. And finally, that Manning is trying to talk Glenn into finishing his contract.
The Colts moved up in the draft to take OT Tony Ugoh this year, but the hope was to have him ready for next year. Moving a rookie to the line and counting on him knowing what the heck Peyton is screaming seconds before the snap is a little scary for everyone.
The Mustard: Don't you dare move Peyton Manning from the top of your draft board. But if Glenn does indeed retire, do consider what position he is worth drafting at and you might want to let him fall a spot or two from where he would normally go. In the case of auctions, drop his value a couple dollars.
Lance Briggs Signs Contract
This is good news for the Bears Defense. Keep them ranked high on your draft board.
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
Priest Holmes And The Chief's RBs
I didn't expect to write this, but Priest Holmes says he's coming to training camp and wants to play in 2007. But looking at things in KC, the biggest news is the RB you might want to risk taking now.
According the article on NFL.com, Holmes still has to prove to the team he is in shape. And he's 33. And he hasn't played in over a year. And the Chief's OL isn't what it was two years ago. And Larry Johnson is still on the roster.
Larry Johnson is on the trade block, but the asking price is reportedly a first, second and third round pick. Which GM in his right mind will pay that price? I continue to think LJ will not only hold out at least a few games, but he will probably see fewer carries whether or not Holmes is game worthy.
Michael Bennett is also on the Chief's roster. You remember Michael Bennett, don't you? He rushed for 1300 yards in 2002 on just 255 carries for a 5.1 ypc average. He'll turn 29 in August but hasn't been heavily used, getting only 30 touches last year. He did have a nifty 5.6 ypc on those touches, however.
The Mustard:
Keep dropping Larry Johnson down your board until you can't stand the thought of not taking him. UNLESS he ends up on another team, then re-evaluate. I would take Willie Parker and Travis Henry above Larry Johnson right now, but I have a lower tolerance for first round risk than most. Something happened to me after I drafted Julius Jones in the middle of the first round two years ago.
Don't draft Priest Holmes unless you know LJ is gone. Then think twice about which round to take him in.
If LJ is traded, grab Michael Bennett. Even if LJ is not traded, Bennett might be worth a round 13-15 flier in 12 team or larger leagues as your RB4 on the grounds that, at worst, he's LJ insurance and at best he ends up the bell cow for the Chiefs and gets 400 carries.
According the article on NFL.com, Holmes still has to prove to the team he is in shape. And he's 33. And he hasn't played in over a year. And the Chief's OL isn't what it was two years ago. And Larry Johnson is still on the roster.
Larry Johnson is on the trade block, but the asking price is reportedly a first, second and third round pick. Which GM in his right mind will pay that price? I continue to think LJ will not only hold out at least a few games, but he will probably see fewer carries whether or not Holmes is game worthy.
Michael Bennett is also on the Chief's roster. You remember Michael Bennett, don't you? He rushed for 1300 yards in 2002 on just 255 carries for a 5.1 ypc average. He'll turn 29 in August but hasn't been heavily used, getting only 30 touches last year. He did have a nifty 5.6 ypc on those touches, however.
The Mustard:
Keep dropping Larry Johnson down your board until you can't stand the thought of not taking him. UNLESS he ends up on another team, then re-evaluate. I would take Willie Parker and Travis Henry above Larry Johnson right now, but I have a lower tolerance for first round risk than most. Something happened to me after I drafted Julius Jones in the middle of the first round two years ago.
Don't draft Priest Holmes unless you know LJ is gone. Then think twice about which round to take him in.
If LJ is traded, grab Michael Bennett. Even if LJ is not traded, Bennett might be worth a round 13-15 flier in 12 team or larger leagues as your RB4 on the grounds that, at worst, he's LJ insurance and at best he ends up the bell cow for the Chiefs and gets 400 carries.
Sunday, July 22, 2007
QB Run Down
In preparing for this article, I wanted to do something other than just repeat the obvious. Any fantasy footballer should be able to figure out some QBs are more injury prone and rookie and second-year QBs are risks. I've also put out a few articles on just how little difference there is between top QBs and a QB taken late in the draft. QBs are generally low risk all the way around, so even by dubbing one a "high" risk, it's very relative. Starting QBs don't generally fall off the face of the fantasy football earth the way a wide receiver or even a running back might.
That said, there are three QBs that are a "high" risk.
High Risk
Michael Vick - Just in case you haven't heard, he's probably going to prison and there's a ton of pressure on the NFL and the Falcons to keep him off the field if not out of football. 'Nuff said here.
Drew Brees - Brees benefited from schedule, scheme and the playmakers around him last year. The Saint's schedule doesn't look too intimidating this year either, but the NFL has a whole year of film to study for plays and tendencies and while Bush and McAllister are still a good bet, Colston is a second year WR and that is a risky proposition in itself. There isn't a real veteran presence on the WR corps to fall back on if Colston does struggle.
According to the Rotowire Fantasy Football Guide, Brees was 5 for 5 on passes over 40 yards with three of those for TDs and he had 14 TDs on 52 pass attempts longer than 20 yards. That sort of freakish efficiency is not likely to be duplicated. Inside the 10 yard line, Brees converted just 22 percent of his attempts. "Good QBs convert about 40 percent of these throws into TDs," says the magazine.
Jake Delhomme - With David Carr around, a year like last year could lead to a QB controversy quickly.
Honorable Mention High Risk
Injuries and playing experience, coupled with likely draft position, warrant the mention of players such as Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Vince Young, Marc Bulger and Matt Leinart. These QBs are likely to miss games due to injury or have very inconsistent performance.
Jay Cutler barely merits his own mention as he is sometimes taken above more proven QBs.
High Reward
Like the High Risk category - things are relative.
Vince Young - While he is also in the Honorable Mention High Risk category, no other QB is likely to run for as many yards and TDs, earning stats like a mid-level RB while at the same time putting up stats like a QB, albeit his passing stats will likely be sub-par. His completion percentage was a mediocre 51.5 and there aren't any notable receivers on the roster. A running QB is also an injury risk. If you take Young, you could have a top 5 QB, or a bottom rung QB. Pick a backup quickly just in case.
Tom Brady - You wouldn't think the third rated QB would be in the high reward category, but all things being relative, he rates the nomination. The Pats picked up several playmakers at WR this offseason and Laurence Maroney can still catch out of the backfield. Brady has a shot at being the top ranked QB by the end of the year and he's never missed a game due to injury.
Ben Roethlisberger - Ben was robbed last year. A near-fatal accident, emergency appendectomy and a concussion combined to destroy his stats. This year will be the year Ben should have had last year, only better with a new OC promising to open up the playbook and run a more pass friendly offense. Roethlisberger is a very good 'sleeper' QB with a high ceiling and a low floor compared to his draft position.
Honorable Mention High Reward
Rex Grossman - If Grossman can eliminate whatever it is that lead to the few horrendous games he had last year, he will be a great value. Fantasy nation appears to have forgotten that for the first five games last year, Grossman was a very serviceable QB with a 4 TD game performance to his credit. Still, odds are, he will likely be just a good QB2 and I wouldn't want to count him as my starting QB.
That said, there are three QBs that are a "high" risk.
High Risk
Michael Vick - Just in case you haven't heard, he's probably going to prison and there's a ton of pressure on the NFL and the Falcons to keep him off the field if not out of football. 'Nuff said here.
Drew Brees - Brees benefited from schedule, scheme and the playmakers around him last year. The Saint's schedule doesn't look too intimidating this year either, but the NFL has a whole year of film to study for plays and tendencies and while Bush and McAllister are still a good bet, Colston is a second year WR and that is a risky proposition in itself. There isn't a real veteran presence on the WR corps to fall back on if Colston does struggle.
According to the Rotowire Fantasy Football Guide, Brees was 5 for 5 on passes over 40 yards with three of those for TDs and he had 14 TDs on 52 pass attempts longer than 20 yards. That sort of freakish efficiency is not likely to be duplicated. Inside the 10 yard line, Brees converted just 22 percent of his attempts. "Good QBs convert about 40 percent of these throws into TDs," says the magazine.
Jake Delhomme - With David Carr around, a year like last year could lead to a QB controversy quickly.
Honorable Mention High Risk
Injuries and playing experience, coupled with likely draft position, warrant the mention of players such as Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Vince Young, Marc Bulger and Matt Leinart. These QBs are likely to miss games due to injury or have very inconsistent performance.
Jay Cutler barely merits his own mention as he is sometimes taken above more proven QBs.
High Reward
Like the High Risk category - things are relative.
Vince Young - While he is also in the Honorable Mention High Risk category, no other QB is likely to run for as many yards and TDs, earning stats like a mid-level RB while at the same time putting up stats like a QB, albeit his passing stats will likely be sub-par. His completion percentage was a mediocre 51.5 and there aren't any notable receivers on the roster. A running QB is also an injury risk. If you take Young, you could have a top 5 QB, or a bottom rung QB. Pick a backup quickly just in case.
Tom Brady - You wouldn't think the third rated QB would be in the high reward category, but all things being relative, he rates the nomination. The Pats picked up several playmakers at WR this offseason and Laurence Maroney can still catch out of the backfield. Brady has a shot at being the top ranked QB by the end of the year and he's never missed a game due to injury.
Ben Roethlisberger - Ben was robbed last year. A near-fatal accident, emergency appendectomy and a concussion combined to destroy his stats. This year will be the year Ben should have had last year, only better with a new OC promising to open up the playbook and run a more pass friendly offense. Roethlisberger is a very good 'sleeper' QB with a high ceiling and a low floor compared to his draft position.
Honorable Mention High Reward
Rex Grossman - If Grossman can eliminate whatever it is that lead to the few horrendous games he had last year, he will be a great value. Fantasy nation appears to have forgotten that for the first five games last year, Grossman was a very serviceable QB with a 4 TD game performance to his credit. Still, odds are, he will likely be just a good QB2 and I wouldn't want to count him as my starting QB.
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
Bad Newz, Mike
According to 680 The Fan guests here in Atlanta, Mike Vick is almost certainly going to be found guilty if he goes to trial and is almost certainly going to get jail time, probably within six months.
One call-in guest this morning, whose name escapes me, said the feds have a 95% conviction rate in similar cases. I'm not sure how he defined similar, but in-studio guest Manny Aurora generally agreed that the federal prosecuters' conviction rates are exceedingly good for the prosecution and bad for the defense. I think it was he who said a defense lawyer is doing good if they win one or two federal cases out of 10.
Aurora, who represents Pacman Jones, a doctor affiliated with the murder/murder/suicide case of wrestler Chris Benoit, and others, stated that high profile defendants are LESS likely to get friendly plea agreements because of public perception since the OJ trial that celebrities get off easy. Also, he said the Vick case is likely to be a 'crown jewel' in some prosecutor's crown and the 'lesser' defendants will almost certainly provide evidence against Vick for their own benefit.
It looks like Ol' Ron Mexico is going to prison and the trial, according to Aurora, could begin in 6 months. Between now and then, Vick will be required to attend all manner of proceedings and cannot, like most state courts, just send an attorney.
The Mustard: Vick is almost certainly going to prison. If he listens to his attorney's probable advice, he will take some form of plea deal that will probably still contain some jail time. This might happen within six months. And even if Vick is not suspended, which is still a subject of debate among the 'experts', the constant appearances before judges and such will certainly impact preparedness. Vick is officially not worth drafting. Neither are backup QBs Joey Harrington or DJ Shockley UNLESS coach Petrino picks and sticks with one of them AND the Falcon's offense clicks this year. Too many variables, thank you very much.
One call-in guest this morning, whose name escapes me, said the feds have a 95% conviction rate in similar cases. I'm not sure how he defined similar, but in-studio guest Manny Aurora generally agreed that the federal prosecuters' conviction rates are exceedingly good for the prosecution and bad for the defense. I think it was he who said a defense lawyer is doing good if they win one or two federal cases out of 10.
Aurora, who represents Pacman Jones, a doctor affiliated with the murder/murder/suicide case of wrestler Chris Benoit, and others, stated that high profile defendants are LESS likely to get friendly plea agreements because of public perception since the OJ trial that celebrities get off easy. Also, he said the Vick case is likely to be a 'crown jewel' in some prosecutor's crown and the 'lesser' defendants will almost certainly provide evidence against Vick for their own benefit.
It looks like Ol' Ron Mexico is going to prison and the trial, according to Aurora, could begin in 6 months. Between now and then, Vick will be required to attend all manner of proceedings and cannot, like most state courts, just send an attorney.
The Mustard: Vick is almost certainly going to prison. If he listens to his attorney's probable advice, he will take some form of plea deal that will probably still contain some jail time. This might happen within six months. And even if Vick is not suspended, which is still a subject of debate among the 'experts', the constant appearances before judges and such will certainly impact preparedness. Vick is officially not worth drafting. Neither are backup QBs Joey Harrington or DJ Shockley UNLESS coach Petrino picks and sticks with one of them AND the Falcon's offense clicks this year. Too many variables, thank you very much.
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
Daunte's Free, Ron Mexico Still Free (For Now)
Hurrah for Culpepper. The Dolphins showed no class in holding onto a guy the whole planet knew would be cut.
Speaking of class, the feds have indicted Mike Vick. I have nothing new to add to the news, so there you have it. It remains to be seen if Vick will actually be suspended, though. As several ESPN analysts have pointed out, this is Vick's first serious brush with the legal system while in the NFL and the player conduct policy that affected Pacman Jones and Chris Henry is designed for repeat offenders. Vick may manage to play the whole year, unless Goodell takes it personally that Vick promised he wasn't involved.
Speaking of class, the feds have indicted Mike Vick. I have nothing new to add to the news, so there you have it. It remains to be seen if Vick will actually be suspended, though. As several ESPN analysts have pointed out, this is Vick's first serious brush with the legal system while in the NFL and the player conduct policy that affected Pacman Jones and Chris Henry is designed for repeat offenders. Vick may manage to play the whole year, unless Goodell takes it personally that Vick promised he wasn't involved.
Monday, July 16, 2007
Marshawn Lynch, A-Train, RBBC
The dreaded RBBC is shaping up in Buffalo. HC Dick Jauron tells Buffalobills.com he wants the backs to compete and sort out who gets carries, but he explicitly said, "We'd like to have two or three guys that perform well enough that you'll rotate them and keep them healthy."
The Mustard: In case you were starting to fall in love with Lynch, drop him in your rankings. He was available until the early 7th round in my latest draft. Brandon Jackson and DeAngelo Williams - backs in similar situations, which is they should get the most carries on their roster, but will at least start in in RBBC - were taken in the 11th. Heck, Julius Jones went in the 12th. I wouldn't mind a late round flier on J. Jones. Don't reach too far for Lynch.
The Mustard: In case you were starting to fall in love with Lynch, drop him in your rankings. He was available until the early 7th round in my latest draft. Brandon Jackson and DeAngelo Williams - backs in similar situations, which is they should get the most carries on their roster, but will at least start in in RBBC - were taken in the 11th. Heck, Julius Jones went in the 12th. I wouldn't mind a late round flier on J. Jones. Don't reach too far for Lynch.
Sunday, July 15, 2007
Fantasy Draft 3 Recap
For my third fantasy draft, held last week, I wanted to see what my team would end up looking like if I did not hold fast to the notion of taking an RB in round 2. I drafted fourth, which makes this decision easier as the second pick comes toward the end of round 2 -- there just aren't many RBs left.
My results were:
Jon Kitna
Frank Gore
Brandon Jacobs
Chad Johnson
Terrell Owens
Reggie Brown
Vernon Davis
Jason Elam
New England
with reserves
Rex Grossman
Carnell Williams
Brandon Jackson
Santonio Holmes
Drew Bennett
Matt Stover
Initial Impression
My first impression is that this is a very good team. I balanced the relative security of a top RB, two top WRs, and a 4000 yard QB with the upside of a couple decent WRs and two starting, if not highly sought after, running backs and another running back that should be starting before the season gets too old.
I was particularly excited by my first three picks of Gore, Chad Johnson and Terrell Owens. The fear of what would be available for my second RB was tangible during the draft, but with the options I was able to find I am confident one or two will pan out. Later in the draft, I left Kitna on the board for a couple tense rounds while I snagged a top defense and the last decent TE on the board. This turned out to be a good move because not only did I still get my QB target, but as soon as I took Vernon Davis, one guy announced that was his next pick.
Rounds 1-3:
Addai surprisingly went at three, leaving me Gore at fourth. I think Addai is a very safe pick for a sophomore RB, but he is clearly becoming a favorite. LT and Steven Jackson were 1 and 2. The rest of the first round was a very predictable event with the following taken in order: LJ, Alexander, Willie Parker, Brian Westbrook, Travis Henry and Peyton Manning. The Manning owner took Reggie Bush with the first pick of the second. Finally, a round one that looks like seasoned fantasy footballers were doing the picking.
In the second round, I was starting to get excited that perhaps Laurence Maroney would fall through cracks, but he was taken three spots before. The guy before me took Steve Smith. With no 'sure' bets left at RB and plenty of decent bets available later, I took Chad Johnson - the top WR on my board. I know Steve Smith is usually ranked #1, but he could face turmoil at the QB position and will be breaking in a new #2 WR this year, leaving more double coverage on him.
Reggie Wayne went two picks before me in the third round, but I was still ecstatic to take TO. Willis McGahee was a minor temptation here. McGahee finished with 990 and 6 last year, totals bound to improve in Baltimore, which has a good OL and allowed the decrepit Jamal Lewis to gain 1100 and 9. But again, there are still starting RBs left and TO should improve on the 1180 and 13 TDs he had last year. He seemed the better value.
Round 4-6:
I reached a bit for Brandon Jacobs in the fourth but I was getting antsy to ensure I had my second RB. Edgerrin James went more than a full round later and would have been the safer pick, albeit with less upside. Lee Evans would have been a good pick here too.
In round 5, I was very pleased to take Reggie Brown. He finished with more than 800 yards and 8 TDs last year while sharing time. The third-year WR is the top option for Donovan McNabb this year and is a potential top 5 WR. Because of his awesome upside, low downside and the fact my roster was already solid at WR, Brown made the ideal third WR and round 5 pick.
I said after a previous draft that Carnell Williams was taken way too low in the seventh. Here he sat for me in the sixth when it was time to shore up my RB corps. The top QBs were long gone, as were the top several TEs and even the Chicago D. My best choices were Marshawn Lynch, Baltimore and Williams. Lynch's bye week coincided with Gore's, so I selected Williams and hoped Baltimore would fall to me in the 7th.
Between the RBs, Lynch's unknown role and upside strangely holds more appeal for me than the known commodity of Williams. Still, Williams is skilled and if he can stay healthy is more than capable of exceeding his rookie stats from two years ago.
In the seventh, I took New England. Baltimore didn't make it. By this point in the draft, I was very worried about losing Kitna, a fear that started building with the Williams selection in the sixth, but everyone had QBs and I was hoping for defensive team run to distract people.
Rounds 7-15
Eight of the next 12 picks following my seventh were TEs or defenses, leaving me with the choice of taking the last decent TE on my board or Kitna. I took Vernon Davis here.
In round 9, I finally took Kitna and started to breath easier. My starting roster was complete except for a kicker, I had a good option at RB3 and I was comfortable enough with my late round options. I had decided after this pick that the draft was a success.
My next picks were
Santonio Holmes - He could be a break-out WR this year in Pittsburgh, which may put up more passing yards this year and features an aging Hines Ward.
Brandon Jackson - He should get the majority of carries in Green Bay. Taking Jackson cost me DJ Hackett and Vincent Jackson, two my late round WR sleepers, but I'm stacked at WR and wanted more insurance at RB.
Drew Bennett - Bennett, could be decent in St. Louis with Isaac Bruce hitting age 35 and having missed a lot of the year before last.
Jason Elam, Matt Stover - Kickers started going in round 9 but Elam and Stover are no slouches. Elam was the #2 kicker last year and the #3 the year before. Stover was 8th last year and #1 two years ago. Both of their offenses should be better, which will put them in range more often.
Finally, Rex Grossman - This pick elicited a 'what the heck' comment. As QB2, in the 15th round, Grossman is a potential knockout pick. He was a very serviceable fantasy option through his first five games last year. The remainder of the season he was usually either stellar or abysmal. Here's hoping he pulls it together and makes me look like a genius.
Final Thoughts
This was my best draft.
I lack the true, no-doubt sure thing at RB2, but if you've read my blog, you know I'm high on Brandon Jacobs as a low-risk, high reward player. My third RB faces Tennessee and Arizona during the weeks I need him to play. Santonio Holmes faces Seattle and Cincy when I need him to play. Bennett will see Arizona in week 5 when I need him and in week 8 he faces Cleveland if he proves a better option than Holmes. One of my kickers will be a top option, most likely. I'm a little nervous having to rely on Vernon Davis, but he should be okay.
My results were:
Jon Kitna
Frank Gore
Brandon Jacobs
Chad Johnson
Terrell Owens
Reggie Brown
Vernon Davis
Jason Elam
New England
with reserves
Rex Grossman
Carnell Williams
Brandon Jackson
Santonio Holmes
Drew Bennett
Matt Stover
Initial Impression
My first impression is that this is a very good team. I balanced the relative security of a top RB, two top WRs, and a 4000 yard QB with the upside of a couple decent WRs and two starting, if not highly sought after, running backs and another running back that should be starting before the season gets too old.
I was particularly excited by my first three picks of Gore, Chad Johnson and Terrell Owens. The fear of what would be available for my second RB was tangible during the draft, but with the options I was able to find I am confident one or two will pan out. Later in the draft, I left Kitna on the board for a couple tense rounds while I snagged a top defense and the last decent TE on the board. This turned out to be a good move because not only did I still get my QB target, but as soon as I took Vernon Davis, one guy announced that was his next pick.
Rounds 1-3:
Addai surprisingly went at three, leaving me Gore at fourth. I think Addai is a very safe pick for a sophomore RB, but he is clearly becoming a favorite. LT and Steven Jackson were 1 and 2. The rest of the first round was a very predictable event with the following taken in order: LJ, Alexander, Willie Parker, Brian Westbrook, Travis Henry and Peyton Manning. The Manning owner took Reggie Bush with the first pick of the second. Finally, a round one that looks like seasoned fantasy footballers were doing the picking.
In the second round, I was starting to get excited that perhaps Laurence Maroney would fall through cracks, but he was taken three spots before. The guy before me took Steve Smith. With no 'sure' bets left at RB and plenty of decent bets available later, I took Chad Johnson - the top WR on my board. I know Steve Smith is usually ranked #1, but he could face turmoil at the QB position and will be breaking in a new #2 WR this year, leaving more double coverage on him.
Reggie Wayne went two picks before me in the third round, but I was still ecstatic to take TO. Willis McGahee was a minor temptation here. McGahee finished with 990 and 6 last year, totals bound to improve in Baltimore, which has a good OL and allowed the decrepit Jamal Lewis to gain 1100 and 9. But again, there are still starting RBs left and TO should improve on the 1180 and 13 TDs he had last year. He seemed the better value.
Round 4-6:
I reached a bit for Brandon Jacobs in the fourth but I was getting antsy to ensure I had my second RB. Edgerrin James went more than a full round later and would have been the safer pick, albeit with less upside. Lee Evans would have been a good pick here too.
In round 5, I was very pleased to take Reggie Brown. He finished with more than 800 yards and 8 TDs last year while sharing time. The third-year WR is the top option for Donovan McNabb this year and is a potential top 5 WR. Because of his awesome upside, low downside and the fact my roster was already solid at WR, Brown made the ideal third WR and round 5 pick.
I said after a previous draft that Carnell Williams was taken way too low in the seventh. Here he sat for me in the sixth when it was time to shore up my RB corps. The top QBs were long gone, as were the top several TEs and even the Chicago D. My best choices were Marshawn Lynch, Baltimore and Williams. Lynch's bye week coincided with Gore's, so I selected Williams and hoped Baltimore would fall to me in the 7th.
Between the RBs, Lynch's unknown role and upside strangely holds more appeal for me than the known commodity of Williams. Still, Williams is skilled and if he can stay healthy is more than capable of exceeding his rookie stats from two years ago.
In the seventh, I took New England. Baltimore didn't make it. By this point in the draft, I was very worried about losing Kitna, a fear that started building with the Williams selection in the sixth, but everyone had QBs and I was hoping for defensive team run to distract people.
Rounds 7-15
Eight of the next 12 picks following my seventh were TEs or defenses, leaving me with the choice of taking the last decent TE on my board or Kitna. I took Vernon Davis here.
In round 9, I finally took Kitna and started to breath easier. My starting roster was complete except for a kicker, I had a good option at RB3 and I was comfortable enough with my late round options. I had decided after this pick that the draft was a success.
My next picks were
Santonio Holmes - He could be a break-out WR this year in Pittsburgh, which may put up more passing yards this year and features an aging Hines Ward.
Brandon Jackson - He should get the majority of carries in Green Bay. Taking Jackson cost me DJ Hackett and Vincent Jackson, two my late round WR sleepers, but I'm stacked at WR and wanted more insurance at RB.
Drew Bennett - Bennett, could be decent in St. Louis with Isaac Bruce hitting age 35 and having missed a lot of the year before last.
Jason Elam, Matt Stover - Kickers started going in round 9 but Elam and Stover are no slouches. Elam was the #2 kicker last year and the #3 the year before. Stover was 8th last year and #1 two years ago. Both of their offenses should be better, which will put them in range more often.
Finally, Rex Grossman - This pick elicited a 'what the heck' comment. As QB2, in the 15th round, Grossman is a potential knockout pick. He was a very serviceable fantasy option through his first five games last year. The remainder of the season he was usually either stellar or abysmal. Here's hoping he pulls it together and makes me look like a genius.
Final Thoughts
This was my best draft.
I lack the true, no-doubt sure thing at RB2, but if you've read my blog, you know I'm high on Brandon Jacobs as a low-risk, high reward player. My third RB faces Tennessee and Arizona during the weeks I need him to play. Santonio Holmes faces Seattle and Cincy when I need him to play. Bennett will see Arizona in week 5 when I need him and in week 8 he faces Cleveland if he proves a better option than Holmes. One of my kickers will be a top option, most likely. I'm a little nervous having to rely on Vernon Davis, but he should be okay.
Saturday, July 14, 2007
Rams Defense Takes A Hit
" ST. LOUIS (July 13, 2007) -- Rams cornerback Fakhir Brown was suspended for the first four games of the 2007 season for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy.
The league didn't reveal the specific nature of the violation. Brown's agent, Ted Marchibroda, didn't immediately return a phone call seeking comment.
Brown's suspension will begin Aug. 31 and he can return to the active roster on Oct. 1, following the Rams' game Sept. 30 against the Dallas Cowboys. He is allowed to participate in preseason games and practice.
Brown, 29, started 14 games for the Rams last season. He tied for the team high with three interceptions and had one sack. He missed two games with an ankle injury. He signed a five-year deal as a free agent with the Rams in 2006 after spending his first four NFL seasons with New Orleans. "
If Brown started 14 games last year, he will be missed during his suspension. Value the St. Louis D accordingly.
The league didn't reveal the specific nature of the violation. Brown's agent, Ted Marchibroda, didn't immediately return a phone call seeking comment.
Brown's suspension will begin Aug. 31 and he can return to the active roster on Oct. 1, following the Rams' game Sept. 30 against the Dallas Cowboys. He is allowed to participate in preseason games and practice.
Brown, 29, started 14 games for the Rams last season. He tied for the team high with three interceptions and had one sack. He missed two games with an ankle injury. He signed a five-year deal as a free agent with the Rams in 2006 after spending his first four NFL seasons with New Orleans. "
If Brown started 14 games last year, he will be missed during his suspension. Value the St. Louis D accordingly.
Chambers Charged DWI After Midnight
" CHARLOTTE, N.C. (July 14, 2007) -- Miami Dolphins wide receiver Chris Chambers was arrested on charges of driving while impaired and speeding.
Chambers, 28, was arrested by Charlotte-Mecklenburg police around 2:30 a.m., several miles south of downtown, said police Capt. Lisa Goelz. He faces charges of driving while impaired, speeding, and reckless driving, she said. "
The news will develop if there's going to be any more impact, but I don't recall any other incidents with Chris Chambers so I am not expecting this to impact his season. Although it would be nice if he went home sooner. Just one more player in trouble after midnight
Chambers, 28, was arrested by Charlotte-Mecklenburg police around 2:30 a.m., several miles south of downtown, said police Capt. Lisa Goelz. He faces charges of driving while impaired, speeding, and reckless driving, she said. "
The news will develop if there's going to be any more impact, but I don't recall any other incidents with Chris Chambers so I am not expecting this to impact his season. Although it would be nice if he went home sooner. Just one more player in trouble after midnight
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
I'm A Kitna Pimp
But at least I'm not the only one. I drafted another team last night, abandoning the Stud RB theory to see what I would end up with at RB2 and 3 as well as WR1-3. I banked on Kitna being available late and snagged him in the 9th. More on that later.
Meanwhile, from Greg Rosenthal at Rotoworld:
Meanwhile, from Greg Rosenthal at Rotoworld:
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Monday, July 9, 2007
QBs Available Late
Three of the worthwhile QBs available after most everyone has their starting QB are Matt Hasselbeck, Jon Kitna and Ben Roethlisberger, though there may be others. As I've recently pointed out, there's not that much separation between some QBs taken in the top of the draft and one some would consider a backup. While I typically think in terms of snake drafts, this also holds true in auction formats. If you can get three-fourths of Peyton Manning's production for one-eighth the cost, you have more money to spend on other positions.
Hasselbeck
I am less a fan of Hasselbeck than the rest of the planet, apparently, but my point still holds. He’s serviceable and available late.
One thing in Hasselbeck’s favor is the thinking that with Shaun Alexander wearing down, the Seahawks will have to rely more on the passing game. I temper my expectations here because of the relatively unproven WR corps that’s left in Seattle and I don’t want to write Alexander off after his first-ever missed-game injury. He is just turning 30 this year and only has 7 years of NFL experience.
I put Hasselbeck’s ceiling at 24 TDs and 3400 yards but predict he’ll have about 3300 yards and 22 TDs based on what he has accomplished in the past and what he is likely to accomplish without Darrel Jackson and Jerramy Stevens. This slots him at 17th on my draft board. (By contrast, a survey of six magazines and websites gives him a composite ranking of 10.1.)
Kitna
Kitna's stats from last year, 4200 and 21, were no fluke. Martz’s offenses since the glory days of Kurt Warner (who had 42, 37 and 37 TD totals) were consistently in the range of 4300-4600 yards and 23-24 TDs with Mark Bulger at the helm. Kitna has an offensive system that is theoretically capable of 4600 yard and high-30s TD totals, but 4300 and 23 is a very reasonable bottom. Is Kitna as good as Bulger? Well, he was within 2 touchdowns and a few yards of equaling a Bulger-like stat total last year, which brings me Calvin Johnson.
You may not realize that CJ is 6'5", 235 lbs and runs a 4.35 40. I forget his leap measurement, but it was monster, too. In other words, CJ is not only a threat to get behind a defense but he can out jump and out muscle defenders in the red zone. His skills will demand defensive attention, making the Lions more effective.
My projection of 4300 yards and 24 TDs for Kitna is modest and ties him with Marc Bulger for fifth in my rankings. (A survey of the same six magazines and websites gives Kitna a composite ranking of 9.8)
Also know that Detroit picked up two new guards and a tackle, all of whom started for their teams last year and all of whom are projected to start in Detroit. Maybe Kitna won’t get sacked 63 times this year.
Roethlisberger
Ben Roethlisberger was a favorite fantasy QB to draft last year and then disappointed with only 3500 yards and 18 TDs and a ridiculous 23 interceptions. I'm proud to say I warned people. Fantasy Nation is down on Big Ben this year, which makes it time for the astute fantasy player to roll the dice on him.
Rotowire Fantasy Football Guide points out that Ben's problems can be traced to the first few games of the year and two games following a concussion in Atlanta. In those five games, he threw 14 interceptions and 2 touchdowns. Ouch. If you take his last 8 games and extrapolate from that, he would have had over 3400 yards and 22 TDs, but still with 18 INTs. In other words, Big Ben is perfectly capable of being a serviceable QB.
But he has upside, too. The new coaching team is promising to open up the playbook with more 4 receiver sets. The team has a shiny new 6'7" TE from Minnesota to complement Heath Miller. Hines Ward is still around and Santonio Holmes enters his second year after an impressive 800 yard, 2 TD rookie season.
Summary
Barring injury, Kitna, Roethlisberger and Hasselbeck are reasonably ‘safe’ plays. If you wait to get one of them, your QB2 options might include Rex Grossman, JP Losman, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart and even Eli Manning, several of which may not even be drafted, but all of which should at the very least be serviceable. This, of course, is the point of the article. Don’t follow the herd and draft a QB because the teams picking before you just did. You’ll survive and probably prosper if you wait.
The Mustard: Jon Kitna is worth waiting for while you stock up on starting positions in rounds 1-6. But if you miss him, Hasselbeck and Roethlisberger are both a decent option to provide some stability at the QB position for you.
Matt Hasselbeck may even put up a career year if Deion Branch is a capable replacement for Darrell Jackson and if DJ Hackett turns out to be the red zone target scouts believe he might. In other words, you could do worse than Hasselbeck.
Ben Roethlisberger I actually like a little better than Hasselbeck, not because he's proven he's better, but because I am attracted to the possibility that his new offense gives him the more upside of the two.
Hasselbeck
I am less a fan of Hasselbeck than the rest of the planet, apparently, but my point still holds. He’s serviceable and available late.
One thing in Hasselbeck’s favor is the thinking that with Shaun Alexander wearing down, the Seahawks will have to rely more on the passing game. I temper my expectations here because of the relatively unproven WR corps that’s left in Seattle and I don’t want to write Alexander off after his first-ever missed-game injury. He is just turning 30 this year and only has 7 years of NFL experience.
I put Hasselbeck’s ceiling at 24 TDs and 3400 yards but predict he’ll have about 3300 yards and 22 TDs based on what he has accomplished in the past and what he is likely to accomplish without Darrel Jackson and Jerramy Stevens. This slots him at 17th on my draft board. (By contrast, a survey of six magazines and websites gives him a composite ranking of 10.1.)
Kitna
Kitna's stats from last year, 4200 and 21, were no fluke. Martz’s offenses since the glory days of Kurt Warner (who had 42, 37 and 37 TD totals) were consistently in the range of 4300-4600 yards and 23-24 TDs with Mark Bulger at the helm. Kitna has an offensive system that is theoretically capable of 4600 yard and high-30s TD totals, but 4300 and 23 is a very reasonable bottom. Is Kitna as good as Bulger? Well, he was within 2 touchdowns and a few yards of equaling a Bulger-like stat total last year, which brings me Calvin Johnson.
You may not realize that CJ is 6'5", 235 lbs and runs a 4.35 40. I forget his leap measurement, but it was monster, too. In other words, CJ is not only a threat to get behind a defense but he can out jump and out muscle defenders in the red zone. His skills will demand defensive attention, making the Lions more effective.
My projection of 4300 yards and 24 TDs for Kitna is modest and ties him with Marc Bulger for fifth in my rankings. (A survey of the same six magazines and websites gives Kitna a composite ranking of 9.8)
Also know that Detroit picked up two new guards and a tackle, all of whom started for their teams last year and all of whom are projected to start in Detroit. Maybe Kitna won’t get sacked 63 times this year.
Roethlisberger
Ben Roethlisberger was a favorite fantasy QB to draft last year and then disappointed with only 3500 yards and 18 TDs and a ridiculous 23 interceptions. I'm proud to say I warned people. Fantasy Nation is down on Big Ben this year, which makes it time for the astute fantasy player to roll the dice on him.
Rotowire Fantasy Football Guide points out that Ben's problems can be traced to the first few games of the year and two games following a concussion in Atlanta. In those five games, he threw 14 interceptions and 2 touchdowns. Ouch. If you take his last 8 games and extrapolate from that, he would have had over 3400 yards and 22 TDs, but still with 18 INTs. In other words, Big Ben is perfectly capable of being a serviceable QB.
But he has upside, too. The new coaching team is promising to open up the playbook with more 4 receiver sets. The team has a shiny new 6'7" TE from Minnesota to complement Heath Miller. Hines Ward is still around and Santonio Holmes enters his second year after an impressive 800 yard, 2 TD rookie season.
Summary
Barring injury, Kitna, Roethlisberger and Hasselbeck are reasonably ‘safe’ plays. If you wait to get one of them, your QB2 options might include Rex Grossman, JP Losman, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart and even Eli Manning, several of which may not even be drafted, but all of which should at the very least be serviceable. This, of course, is the point of the article. Don’t follow the herd and draft a QB because the teams picking before you just did. You’ll survive and probably prosper if you wait.
The Mustard: Jon Kitna is worth waiting for while you stock up on starting positions in rounds 1-6. But if you miss him, Hasselbeck and Roethlisberger are both a decent option to provide some stability at the QB position for you.
Matt Hasselbeck may even put up a career year if Deion Branch is a capable replacement for Darrell Jackson and if DJ Hackett turns out to be the red zone target scouts believe he might. In other words, you could do worse than Hasselbeck.
Ben Roethlisberger I actually like a little better than Hasselbeck, not because he's proven he's better, but because I am attracted to the possibility that his new offense gives him the more upside of the two.
The Value Of Drafting A QB Late
I don't want to step on the geezur's draft advice toes, but this was on my mind...
Sure, we all want Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer on our fantasy team and very few of us would turn our nose up at Tom Brady, but outside of those three, you would be well advised to wait until late to get your starting QB.
Many others have noted the fantasy value of a second tier quarterback compared with the value of a less flashy QB is not that great. My 17th ranked QB is 18 points behind my 8th ranked QB. David Dodds on Football Guys has his 17th ranked QB about 19 points behind his 8th ranked QB. Meanwhile the dropoff from 8 to 17 in running backs is a projected 25 points, according to Dodds. This doesn’t take into account the fact you need two running backs.
Consider this. If you take a QB in the first round, your RB1 choices just went from Larry Johnson or Shaun Alexander to Travis Henry or Thomas Jones. And in the third round, you still need a starting running back for RB2. Would you like Deuce McAllister or DeAngelo Williams? And the top tier WRs are already coming off the board. Suffice it to say, taking a QB in the first three rounds really hurts your odds of fielding decent players at the other positions.
I'm working on a slightly longer analysis of QBs that might be avaiable in the middle rounds of your draft. I hope to have it posted shortly.
Sure, we all want Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer on our fantasy team and very few of us would turn our nose up at Tom Brady, but outside of those three, you would be well advised to wait until late to get your starting QB.
Many others have noted the fantasy value of a second tier quarterback compared with the value of a less flashy QB is not that great. My 17th ranked QB is 18 points behind my 8th ranked QB. David Dodds on Football Guys has his 17th ranked QB about 19 points behind his 8th ranked QB. Meanwhile the dropoff from 8 to 17 in running backs is a projected 25 points, according to Dodds. This doesn’t take into account the fact you need two running backs.
Consider this. If you take a QB in the first round, your RB1 choices just went from Larry Johnson or Shaun Alexander to Travis Henry or Thomas Jones. And in the third round, you still need a starting running back for RB2. Would you like Deuce McAllister or DeAngelo Williams? And the top tier WRs are already coming off the board. Suffice it to say, taking a QB in the first three rounds really hurts your odds of fielding decent players at the other positions.
I'm working on a slightly longer analysis of QBs that might be avaiable in the middle rounds of your draft. I hope to have it posted shortly.
Should You Leave The Moss Hanging?
Should you take the Randy Moss Plunge in your upcoming draft?
By this point, you may have read:
- Randy Moss ran a 4.32 in the 40 yard dash earlier this spring.
- All the talk is positive and he is currently in the honeymoon phase with Bill Bellicheck and Tom Brady.
- The positive locker room culture that exudes itself in the Patriots organization. The type of influence from veterans and a winning attitude that allows bad character guys such as Corey Dillon to come in and contribute without a hiccup.
- When guys reach a certain point in their careers they simply want to win championships and often are capable of putting away their own personal egos long enough to put on a championship ring.
I agree that Randy Moss is going to be a model citizen for a year because winning is contagious. The issue is not Randy Moss’ attitude but rather his play on the field. We all know that Tom Brady likes to spread the ball around and no he has never had a Randy Moss on his team, but this will not be the famed 'Randy Ratio' coined by the NFL’s most comical former head coach, Mike Tice. In addition, NFL scouts and insiders have stated how Moss has become easier to defend because he has developed habits of sloppy route running and predictability.
Similar to the hype Mike Tyson still gets for his knockout abilities, people are still enamored with the deep ball caught over 2 defenders by Randy Moss. Similar to Tyson’s sad fate, the skills have definitely eroded, the competition is more skilled with taller and faster cover corners, and the hype bandwagon has not diminished Moss’ fantasy value enough to match his actual worth. Teams have learned how to defend Moss and he has not put in the work to continue his improvement to stay ahead of the competition.
Sure Moss is still a great goal line target due to his 6’4 frame and leaping ability, but Moss is no longer a complete receiver in the mold of a Chad Johnson, or Marvin Harrison. In addition, he does not take care of his body enough to be able to stay on the field. I would expect a healthy dose of TDs for Moss this season coupled with an average number of yards. Expect around 10 to 11 TDs and about 900 yards receiving, if he stays healthy. For my money, I would rather pay 3 or 4 dollars for a Reggie Brown type receiver, based on a 100 dollar salary cap, who should put up similar numbers, than a Randy Moss who should go for 10 to 15 dollars and a world of worry and headache. That would be equivalent to a 3rd round pick versus a 7th round pick for the novice fantasy football player who still plays in the dreaded snake style pickem draft.
Will I be taking the Randy Moss plunge this year? No thanks!!!!
By this point, you may have read:
- Randy Moss ran a 4.32 in the 40 yard dash earlier this spring.
- All the talk is positive and he is currently in the honeymoon phase with Bill Bellicheck and Tom Brady.
- The positive locker room culture that exudes itself in the Patriots organization. The type of influence from veterans and a winning attitude that allows bad character guys such as Corey Dillon to come in and contribute without a hiccup.
- When guys reach a certain point in their careers they simply want to win championships and often are capable of putting away their own personal egos long enough to put on a championship ring.
I agree that Randy Moss is going to be a model citizen for a year because winning is contagious. The issue is not Randy Moss’ attitude but rather his play on the field. We all know that Tom Brady likes to spread the ball around and no he has never had a Randy Moss on his team, but this will not be the famed 'Randy Ratio' coined by the NFL’s most comical former head coach, Mike Tice. In addition, NFL scouts and insiders have stated how Moss has become easier to defend because he has developed habits of sloppy route running and predictability.
Similar to the hype Mike Tyson still gets for his knockout abilities, people are still enamored with the deep ball caught over 2 defenders by Randy Moss. Similar to Tyson’s sad fate, the skills have definitely eroded, the competition is more skilled with taller and faster cover corners, and the hype bandwagon has not diminished Moss’ fantasy value enough to match his actual worth. Teams have learned how to defend Moss and he has not put in the work to continue his improvement to stay ahead of the competition.
Sure Moss is still a great goal line target due to his 6’4 frame and leaping ability, but Moss is no longer a complete receiver in the mold of a Chad Johnson, or Marvin Harrison. In addition, he does not take care of his body enough to be able to stay on the field. I would expect a healthy dose of TDs for Moss this season coupled with an average number of yards. Expect around 10 to 11 TDs and about 900 yards receiving, if he stays healthy. For my money, I would rather pay 3 or 4 dollars for a Reggie Brown type receiver, based on a 100 dollar salary cap, who should put up similar numbers, than a Randy Moss who should go for 10 to 15 dollars and a world of worry and headache. That would be equivalent to a 3rd round pick versus a 7th round pick for the novice fantasy football player who still plays in the dreaded snake style pickem draft.
Will I be taking the Randy Moss plunge this year? No thanks!!!!
Saturday, July 7, 2007
My Second Fantasy Team Recap
For a second test case on drafting, I allowed CBSSportsline.com to draft a fantasy team for me entirely on autodraft with no changes to the rankings whatsoever. That's right, I registered and walked away until after the draft.
My resulting team:
Jay Cutler
Larry Johnson
Clinton Portis
Reggie Wayne
Javon Walker
Deion Branch
Vernon Davis
Nate Kaeding
Eagles
With reserves:
Chad Pennington
Lamont Jordan
Anthony Gonzalez (WR, Ind)
Eddie Kennison
Martin Grammatica
First Impression:
Yuck. My QB, both starting RBs and two of my starting WRs all have question marks. On the one hand, if everything goes well for these guys, this may be a very good team, but I don't like the risk for the upside of several of them.
Cutler is going into his first full season as QB and that usually means inconsistency with limited upside. Larry Johnson, as discussed here previously, is statistically likely to lose several hundred yards and touchdowns following his 416 rush season last year, including about a 66% chance of missing games, and that's without considering the fact he lost another Pro Bowl lineman this offseason, his coach wants to spell him more and he may hold out. As I've already said, I expect Clinton Portis will split more carries with Ladell Betts than many people think. Regarding Deion Branch, if he nets 1000 yards and 6 TDs, it will be the first time for either event. Javon Walker will suffer the same inconsistencies as Cutler, his QB, and wasn't targeted overly much by Cutler last year.
My reserves are fair on balance but do not have the upside that you want with late round "sleeper" picks. Lamont Jordan is the exception as he has a chance to return to bell cow, 1000 yard RB status now that Dominic Rhodes is suspended for the first four games of the season.
Round By Round:
Round 1 - My team was selected to draft sixth and with the sixth pick on round 1, Larry Johnson was drafted. In a draft with more seasoned fantasy players LJ at sixth might be necessary, but in this case, Frank Gore was still available. Gore has more upside and lower risk.
Round 2 - Clinton Portis was selected. If Portis resumes his status as the top RB on his team, he will be a good value. Still, I don't like risk in rounds 1-4 or 5. Looking at the backs taken after Portis, I have to say I would most likely have taken a WR at this position.
Round 3 - Reggie Wayne was selected. Good pick.
Round 4 - Javon Walker. I would have preferred Walker's blend of risk and upside as my WR3, especially since Lee Evans was still available.
Round 5 - Jay Cutler was selected. Jon Kitna, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo and Matt Hasselbeck were available, with Hasselbeck finally taken in round 8. Roethleisberger went in round 11. There was no need to take Cutler here with those QBs still on the board. Reggie Brown would have been my choice here, even though all TEs but Gates and Gonzalez were still available. With so many of the very good TEs left, one would be available in round 6.
Round 6 - Deion Branch was selected. I could have had Alge Crumpler, the last of the top TEs, and tried to find workable WR3 later.
Round 7 - Nate Kaeding was selected. Interestingly, Carnell Williams was the very next pick. If I had been drafting and I had realized a starting RB was still available this late, taking him would have been a no-brainer. I would have taken him sooner, probably. That said, Kaeding was the first kicker selected, so theoretically, he should be a foundation of the roster.
Round 8 - Vernon Davis. Another good pick, he should emerge as a true TE1 this year, or at least very close to it.
Round 9 - Philadelphia. Eh, there wasn't much left by this point. Philly should be serviceable. I would have preferred to take the defensive plunge sooner to get a top tier DST, though. Ravens and Bears both went in round 7 and I could have had the Bears. In round 8, I could have had the Jaguars. A kicker at 7 was too early, for sure.
Round 10 - Lamont Jordan. The safest RB3 left, so at this spot, the pick is good.
Round 11 - Chad Pennington was selected. Chad Pennington should not be on a roster in a 12 team league. He has no upside and although he was the 16th ranked QB last year, he isn't consistent enough to count on. He had 17 TDs and 16 INTs last year, with about 3350 yards passing. Jason Campbell, JP Losman and Rex Grossman were available and they still are, actually. Brandon Jackson, who should win the starting RB job in Green Bay, would have been a better pick here.
Round 12 - Eddie Kennison? DJ Hackett would have been better.
Round 13 - Anthony Gonzalez. Projected to be the third WR in Indianapolis, he has some value, but probably not much. The third WR gets up to 500 yards most years, but not always. Brandon Stokely did have a 1000 yard, 10 TD season, but that was Manning's once-in-lifetime season. Finally, he's a rookie WR. In other words, Gonzalez is not likely to break out. No upside. He's not worth picking unless you think Harrison or Wayne is going to be injured.
Round 14 - Martin Grammatica. You know what, he may be 103 years old, but if he's kicking for Dallas, he should get his opportunities.
In Sum:
This draft failed to limit risk with early picks and failed to maximize return with mid to late round picks. If more than one or two players fail to produce at their projected level, it will be a long season.
Interesting note:
The man who drafted Steven Jackson in round 1, took Tory Holt in round 2 - exactly what I wanted to do with my first fantasy team on NFL.com. In round 3 he nabbed Bulger, giving him top tier players at three positions, but it fell apart after that. His RB 2 is Adrian Peterson of Minnesota. He has no RB3. It might be interesting to see how he pulls out the year.
My resulting team:
Jay Cutler
Larry Johnson
Clinton Portis
Reggie Wayne
Javon Walker
Deion Branch
Vernon Davis
Nate Kaeding
Eagles
With reserves:
Chad Pennington
Lamont Jordan
Anthony Gonzalez (WR, Ind)
Eddie Kennison
Martin Grammatica
First Impression:
Yuck. My QB, both starting RBs and two of my starting WRs all have question marks. On the one hand, if everything goes well for these guys, this may be a very good team, but I don't like the risk for the upside of several of them.
Cutler is going into his first full season as QB and that usually means inconsistency with limited upside. Larry Johnson, as discussed here previously, is statistically likely to lose several hundred yards and touchdowns following his 416 rush season last year, including about a 66% chance of missing games, and that's without considering the fact he lost another Pro Bowl lineman this offseason, his coach wants to spell him more and he may hold out. As I've already said, I expect Clinton Portis will split more carries with Ladell Betts than many people think. Regarding Deion Branch, if he nets 1000 yards and 6 TDs, it will be the first time for either event. Javon Walker will suffer the same inconsistencies as Cutler, his QB, and wasn't targeted overly much by Cutler last year.
My reserves are fair on balance but do not have the upside that you want with late round "sleeper" picks. Lamont Jordan is the exception as he has a chance to return to bell cow, 1000 yard RB status now that Dominic Rhodes is suspended for the first four games of the season.
Round By Round:
Round 1 - My team was selected to draft sixth and with the sixth pick on round 1, Larry Johnson was drafted. In a draft with more seasoned fantasy players LJ at sixth might be necessary, but in this case, Frank Gore was still available. Gore has more upside and lower risk.
Round 2 - Clinton Portis was selected. If Portis resumes his status as the top RB on his team, he will be a good value. Still, I don't like risk in rounds 1-4 or 5. Looking at the backs taken after Portis, I have to say I would most likely have taken a WR at this position.
Round 3 - Reggie Wayne was selected. Good pick.
Round 4 - Javon Walker. I would have preferred Walker's blend of risk and upside as my WR3, especially since Lee Evans was still available.
Round 5 - Jay Cutler was selected. Jon Kitna, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo and Matt Hasselbeck were available, with Hasselbeck finally taken in round 8. Roethleisberger went in round 11. There was no need to take Cutler here with those QBs still on the board. Reggie Brown would have been my choice here, even though all TEs but Gates and Gonzalez were still available. With so many of the very good TEs left, one would be available in round 6.
Round 6 - Deion Branch was selected. I could have had Alge Crumpler, the last of the top TEs, and tried to find workable WR3 later.
Round 7 - Nate Kaeding was selected. Interestingly, Carnell Williams was the very next pick. If I had been drafting and I had realized a starting RB was still available this late, taking him would have been a no-brainer. I would have taken him sooner, probably. That said, Kaeding was the first kicker selected, so theoretically, he should be a foundation of the roster.
Round 8 - Vernon Davis. Another good pick, he should emerge as a true TE1 this year, or at least very close to it.
Round 9 - Philadelphia. Eh, there wasn't much left by this point. Philly should be serviceable. I would have preferred to take the defensive plunge sooner to get a top tier DST, though. Ravens and Bears both went in round 7 and I could have had the Bears. In round 8, I could have had the Jaguars. A kicker at 7 was too early, for sure.
Round 10 - Lamont Jordan. The safest RB3 left, so at this spot, the pick is good.
Round 11 - Chad Pennington was selected. Chad Pennington should not be on a roster in a 12 team league. He has no upside and although he was the 16th ranked QB last year, he isn't consistent enough to count on. He had 17 TDs and 16 INTs last year, with about 3350 yards passing. Jason Campbell, JP Losman and Rex Grossman were available and they still are, actually. Brandon Jackson, who should win the starting RB job in Green Bay, would have been a better pick here.
Round 12 - Eddie Kennison? DJ Hackett would have been better.
Round 13 - Anthony Gonzalez. Projected to be the third WR in Indianapolis, he has some value, but probably not much. The third WR gets up to 500 yards most years, but not always. Brandon Stokely did have a 1000 yard, 10 TD season, but that was Manning's once-in-lifetime season. Finally, he's a rookie WR. In other words, Gonzalez is not likely to break out. No upside. He's not worth picking unless you think Harrison or Wayne is going to be injured.
Round 14 - Martin Grammatica. You know what, he may be 103 years old, but if he's kicking for Dallas, he should get his opportunities.
In Sum:
This draft failed to limit risk with early picks and failed to maximize return with mid to late round picks. If more than one or two players fail to produce at their projected level, it will be a long season.
Interesting note:
The man who drafted Steven Jackson in round 1, took Tory Holt in round 2 - exactly what I wanted to do with my first fantasy team on NFL.com. In round 3 he nabbed Bulger, giving him top tier players at three positions, but it fell apart after that. His RB 2 is Adrian Peterson of Minnesota. He has no RB3. It might be interesting to see how he pulls out the year.
Friday, July 6, 2007
Teflon Ron Mexico?
From ESPN.com:
"SURRY, Va. -- Federal authorities have filed court documents outlining an alleged dogfighting operation at a property owned by Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Vick, The Associated Press reported Friday.
Vick is not named in the documents.
Additionally, Vick is unlikely to be indicted in the dogfighting federal investigation, according to information gathered by the NFL and Atlanta Falcons, sources tell ESPN's Chris Mortensen. The authorities have told the Falcons and league that there has not been any evidence that can be tied to Vick with the alleged dogfighting ring, the sources said."
I am not real big on conspiracy theories, but charges around Vick keep fading away. I'm starting to see a pattern. Remember the water bottle with the hidden compartment? Did you know that the video footage from the airport was erased counter to federal law? And this is a far lesser incident, but Vick faced a trespassing charge for fishing where he shouldn't have. Dropped. Now, with the whole world knowing that Vick owned the property and paid the bills where the dogfighting ring was, he's not going to be charged?
I could swear the law says you could be guilty just for owning the property where dogfights occur. Unless you're Mike Vick, apparently.
I'm just sick. I hope Goodell lays the law down and suspends Vick, I really do. But supposedly Vick is not a repeat offender under the NFL policy. And I hope Atlanta cuts him after this year. Sooner would be better, but salary cap issues and all..
Justice delayed is justice denied, isn't it.
"SURRY, Va. -- Federal authorities have filed court documents outlining an alleged dogfighting operation at a property owned by Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Vick, The Associated Press reported Friday.
Vick is not named in the documents.
Additionally, Vick is unlikely to be indicted in the dogfighting federal investigation, according to information gathered by the NFL and Atlanta Falcons, sources tell ESPN's Chris Mortensen. The authorities have told the Falcons and league that there has not been any evidence that can be tied to Vick with the alleged dogfighting ring, the sources said."
I am not real big on conspiracy theories, but charges around Vick keep fading away. I'm starting to see a pattern. Remember the water bottle with the hidden compartment? Did you know that the video footage from the airport was erased counter to federal law? And this is a far lesser incident, but Vick faced a trespassing charge for fishing where he shouldn't have. Dropped. Now, with the whole world knowing that Vick owned the property and paid the bills where the dogfighting ring was, he's not going to be charged?
I could swear the law says you could be guilty just for owning the property where dogfights occur. Unless you're Mike Vick, apparently.
I'm just sick. I hope Goodell lays the law down and suspends Vick, I really do. But supposedly Vick is not a repeat offender under the NFL policy. And I hope Atlanta cuts him after this year. Sooner would be better, but salary cap issues and all..
Justice delayed is justice denied, isn't it.
Fantasy Draft 1 Recap, Part 1, My Team.
I finished my first fantasy draft of the season today. I will have at least one snake draft and one auction draft coming up that I will use my rankings and my gut on, so for this one today, I decided to experiment by using the default rankings on NFL com.
My methodology was Stud RB up to a point. If possible, I wanted to get two of the top 12 RBs followed by a best available top tier QB and then best available top 12 WR. Once those players were off the board, I did the best I could to flesh out my starting roster with the highest ranked player of need. Once the starting roster was filled, I freed myself to pick my own late round players.
I drafted fourth and finished with the following roster:
Jon Kitna
Steven Jackson
Clinton Portis
Tory Holt
Anquan Boldin
Braylon Edwards
Todd Heap
Matt Stover
Patriots
And for reserves:
Brandon Jacobs
Michael Turner
Jerricho Cotchery
DJ Hackett
Jason Campbell
Initial Impression:
I would be willing to play the season with this roster. A couple things worked out for me, like still getting Tory Holt the round after I really wanted him, and a couple did not, like the loss of Reggie Brown right where I wanted him because I was not clear on the league rules. All in all, using the default rankings was not a disaster because I felt comfortable with my research in the later rounds. Specifically, with everyone making a run on QBs early, I was not afraid to wait with Vick and Kitna still available.
My Picks Round By Round:
In round 1, I was mildly surprised that Steven Jackson fell to me as the top ranked RB available. Amazingly, Carson Palmer, LT and Tony Romo (?!?!) were taken 1,2,3. Peyton Manning went sixth, by the way, right after Shaun Alexander. No, this was not an experts draft. (cough)
In round 2, I faced my first crisis as Clinton Portis was the default 12th RB and I had to take him by my self-imposed Stud RB theory rules, but I would have preferred to take Tory Holt here. Taking Holt would have put me behind the 8 ball to take an RB in round 3 and/or 4, obviously changing the whole draft. Luckily, Holt fell to me at top of round three.
In round 4, I got Anquan Boldin which is not a bad pick, but if it had been my rankings, I probably would have taken Lee Evans here, who went five picks later. Predictably, Larry Fitzgerald was taken early in round 4, five picks ahead of Boldin.
In round 5, I made my only real mistake. Not realizing I needed to start three WRs, I passed on the top available WR Reggie Brown to fill my starting TE spot with Heap. The worst part is, the top ranked TE that would have been available in round 6 is Alge Crumpler, which is nowhere near the falloff I predict from Brown to Braylon Edwards, my eventual WR3. I briefly considered Michael Vick with this pick, but rolled the dice that either he or Kitna would be around later.
Round 6 – While I still needed a QB and WR, the Pats were third on the list of defenses and Chicago and Baltimore were already gone. Everyone had a starting QB, but the players drafting after me needed a defense. I gambled that my QB choices would be available at the top of the 7th and took the third ranked DST. Defenses make a fantasy difference and you should not underestimate their value. Ignore the usual advice to wait until the last two rounds provided you can get a top tier defense.
Round 7 – With Vick gone in the fifth, Kitna was the highest QB left on the board. Why he was ranked so low, I have no idea. He was the #6 fantasy QB last year and is ranked high by most sites this year. I think the live bodies in the draft had their own ideas about who they wanted at QB. (Eight of us were live and I think one or two of the others had pre-ranked their players)
Round 8 – Somewhat grudgingly, I took Braylon Edwards because he was the top ranked WR and I needed one more to start. Actually, I now see that Edwards represents a lot of upside. He is entering his third year and had 884 and 6 last year despite all the turmoil on that team and returning early from ACL surgery.
Round 9 Wadda ya know? My starting roster was full with the exception of kicker and Brandon Jacobs was still available. Because the top ranked kickers were gone, I felt comfortable taking Jacobs. He’ll be on my starting roster day 1.
Round 10 – Matt Stover was the top kicker available. Josh Brown and Stephen Gostkowsi went later. I would rather have had Gostkowski to at least get a piece of the Patriots’ offense this year. Still, this is potentially great value as Stover was the fourth best PK last year and the Ravens should be better.
I then took:
Jerricho Cotchery, who should at least stay in the area of last years’ 960 and 6, making him a very dependable WR 4; The best part is even if Edwards stays in my starting lineup, I need Cotchery to start in weeks 7, 8 and 9 when he plays Cincy, Buffalo (sans Nate Clements, London Fletcher-Baker and Takeo Spikes) and Washington. Sweet.
DJ Hackett, while I don’t really need 5 WRs, Hackett may emerge as the top target in Seattle. If he does become a fantasy force, he might be my trade bait for a starting RB.;
Michael Turner, just in case… Given my need for a solid RB to cover week 9, I will see if I can package Turner and Portis for another pair of running backs. If not, I still have LT's backup.;
And finally, Jason Campbell.
Final impressions:
Not shabby at all. I have a top 2 RB, a top 5 WR, a top 5 TE, a top 5 DST, a top 7 QB, a top 5 PK and the remainder of my starters have good upside with limited risk, except for Braylon Edwards, who is the most likely to fall off significantly from last year. I mitigated this with a consistent Cotchery and the upside of Hackett. For grins and giggles, I have a potential world changer in Michael Turner if LT misses any games.
I was helped by being in a league of casual players, including at least one Dallas fan and a guy who drafted QB, DST, RB, TE with his first four picks. I have noticed that casual players (and autopicked teams) love to draft QBs first. This is usually a mistake, although the guy who got Peyton with the 6th pick came back with Reggie Bush and Ronnie Brown. He definitely could have fared worse.
I have a week 9 problem with two of my three starting RBs on bye that week. (Jackson and Jacobs) I can fill in with Portis, though I honestly expect him to be in a RBBC with Betts by week 9, but Michael Turner is most likely not a good play unless LT goes down. Week 9 of the regular season is a long way away so I have plenty of time to watch this develop.
I do not have backups for kicker, TE or DST. Oh well, I will cross that bridge when I come to it.
My methodology was Stud RB up to a point. If possible, I wanted to get two of the top 12 RBs followed by a best available top tier QB and then best available top 12 WR. Once those players were off the board, I did the best I could to flesh out my starting roster with the highest ranked player of need. Once the starting roster was filled, I freed myself to pick my own late round players.
I drafted fourth and finished with the following roster:
Jon Kitna
Steven Jackson
Clinton Portis
Tory Holt
Anquan Boldin
Braylon Edwards
Todd Heap
Matt Stover
Patriots
And for reserves:
Brandon Jacobs
Michael Turner
Jerricho Cotchery
DJ Hackett
Jason Campbell
Initial Impression:
I would be willing to play the season with this roster. A couple things worked out for me, like still getting Tory Holt the round after I really wanted him, and a couple did not, like the loss of Reggie Brown right where I wanted him because I was not clear on the league rules. All in all, using the default rankings was not a disaster because I felt comfortable with my research in the later rounds. Specifically, with everyone making a run on QBs early, I was not afraid to wait with Vick and Kitna still available.
My Picks Round By Round:
In round 1, I was mildly surprised that Steven Jackson fell to me as the top ranked RB available. Amazingly, Carson Palmer, LT and Tony Romo (?!?!) were taken 1,2,3. Peyton Manning went sixth, by the way, right after Shaun Alexander. No, this was not an experts draft. (cough)
In round 2, I faced my first crisis as Clinton Portis was the default 12th RB and I had to take him by my self-imposed Stud RB theory rules, but I would have preferred to take Tory Holt here. Taking Holt would have put me behind the 8 ball to take an RB in round 3 and/or 4, obviously changing the whole draft. Luckily, Holt fell to me at top of round three.
In round 4, I got Anquan Boldin which is not a bad pick, but if it had been my rankings, I probably would have taken Lee Evans here, who went five picks later. Predictably, Larry Fitzgerald was taken early in round 4, five picks ahead of Boldin.
In round 5, I made my only real mistake. Not realizing I needed to start three WRs, I passed on the top available WR Reggie Brown to fill my starting TE spot with Heap. The worst part is, the top ranked TE that would have been available in round 6 is Alge Crumpler, which is nowhere near the falloff I predict from Brown to Braylon Edwards, my eventual WR3. I briefly considered Michael Vick with this pick, but rolled the dice that either he or Kitna would be around later.
Round 6 – While I still needed a QB and WR, the Pats were third on the list of defenses and Chicago and Baltimore were already gone. Everyone had a starting QB, but the players drafting after me needed a defense. I gambled that my QB choices would be available at the top of the 7th and took the third ranked DST. Defenses make a fantasy difference and you should not underestimate their value. Ignore the usual advice to wait until the last two rounds provided you can get a top tier defense.
Round 7 – With Vick gone in the fifth, Kitna was the highest QB left on the board. Why he was ranked so low, I have no idea. He was the #6 fantasy QB last year and is ranked high by most sites this year. I think the live bodies in the draft had their own ideas about who they wanted at QB. (Eight of us were live and I think one or two of the others had pre-ranked their players)
Round 8 – Somewhat grudgingly, I took Braylon Edwards because he was the top ranked WR and I needed one more to start. Actually, I now see that Edwards represents a lot of upside. He is entering his third year and had 884 and 6 last year despite all the turmoil on that team and returning early from ACL surgery.
Round 9 Wadda ya know? My starting roster was full with the exception of kicker and Brandon Jacobs was still available. Because the top ranked kickers were gone, I felt comfortable taking Jacobs. He’ll be on my starting roster day 1.
Round 10 – Matt Stover was the top kicker available. Josh Brown and Stephen Gostkowsi went later. I would rather have had Gostkowski to at least get a piece of the Patriots’ offense this year. Still, this is potentially great value as Stover was the fourth best PK last year and the Ravens should be better.
I then took:
Jerricho Cotchery, who should at least stay in the area of last years’ 960 and 6, making him a very dependable WR 4; The best part is even if Edwards stays in my starting lineup, I need Cotchery to start in weeks 7, 8 and 9 when he plays Cincy, Buffalo (sans Nate Clements, London Fletcher-Baker and Takeo Spikes) and Washington. Sweet.
DJ Hackett, while I don’t really need 5 WRs, Hackett may emerge as the top target in Seattle. If he does become a fantasy force, he might be my trade bait for a starting RB.;
Michael Turner, just in case… Given my need for a solid RB to cover week 9, I will see if I can package Turner and Portis for another pair of running backs. If not, I still have LT's backup.;
And finally, Jason Campbell.
Final impressions:
Not shabby at all. I have a top 2 RB, a top 5 WR, a top 5 TE, a top 5 DST, a top 7 QB, a top 5 PK and the remainder of my starters have good upside with limited risk, except for Braylon Edwards, who is the most likely to fall off significantly from last year. I mitigated this with a consistent Cotchery and the upside of Hackett. For grins and giggles, I have a potential world changer in Michael Turner if LT misses any games.
I was helped by being in a league of casual players, including at least one Dallas fan and a guy who drafted QB, DST, RB, TE with his first four picks. I have noticed that casual players (and autopicked teams) love to draft QBs first. This is usually a mistake, although the guy who got Peyton with the 6th pick came back with Reggie Bush and Ronnie Brown. He definitely could have fared worse.
I have a week 9 problem with two of my three starting RBs on bye that week. (Jackson and Jacobs) I can fill in with Portis, though I honestly expect him to be in a RBBC with Betts by week 9, but Michael Turner is most likely not a good play unless LT goes down. Week 9 of the regular season is a long way away so I have plenty of time to watch this develop.
I do not have backups for kicker, TE or DST. Oh well, I will cross that bridge when I come to it.
WR Run Down
I hit the RB high value and risk players last week. In that vein, here are my WRs to look out for, whether positive or negative.
High Risk
There aren’t many WRs on the top of draft boards that are that much riskier than any other WR. The exceptions are:
Larry Fitzgerald – As a consensus top 10 WR, (two Football Guys staffers rank him #2) Fitzgerald is too much of a risk to finish well outside the top 10. You can list the reasons – a new coach known for running the ball, a first year starting signal caller, a pro bowl WR opposite him to share receptions with and three missed games last year due to a hamstring. I like Fitzgerald, but I will reduce expectations until I know which WR Matt Leinart likes to throw to and until I see if Fitz can keep up the receptions under new OC Ken Whisenhunt.
Roy Williams – He will probably remain a top 20 WR just because OC Mike Martz is a pass happy mad man, but this consensus WR1 (top 10 to 12 on most boards) only finished in the top 10 once, and that was last year. With rookie WR Calvin Johnson supposedly a phenom waiting to bust out on the NFL, Williams’ stats are bound to decline somewhat from last year’s.
Honorable Mention High Risk
Randy Moss – While he is supposedly the best WR on the Patriots’ roster, it’s been more than three years since he was elite. Moss is in the honorable mention category, though, because I think most fantasy players will be wary of risking too much on a 30-year-old in a “spread the ball around” passing attack. Someone will invariably counter with “but Brady has never had an elite receiver before.” The jury is out on whether Moss is still elite plus Donte Stallworth had a higher YPC last year than Moss ever had so just maybe Moss won’t get all the deep balls on this team, at least until Stallworth hurts himself again.
Anquan Boldin – See Larry Fitzgerald’s write-up above. At least Boldin will be available later in the draft, so the risk isn’t as high.
Calvin Johnson/Mike Furrey – Like Roy Williams’ value, Furrey’s stock will certainly fall off if CJ is as good as advertised. That said, someone somewhere is going to see a 1000 yard wide receiver still on the board in the sixth and ‘steal’ Mike Furrey. As for CJ – rookie WRs are really bad bets.
High Reward
There are several potential high reward WRs this year. Among them:
TJ Houshmandzadeh – Yeah, there’s not really that much upside with TJ, but I’ve seen him ranked from 10th to 19th. If he falls outside the top 10 WRs, you should feel very comfortable taking him. TJ finished 10th in fantasy scoring last year, an improvement from 14th the year before, despite missing two games in both seasons. He had three 100 yard games, three 90 yard games and 9 TDs spread pretty evenly through last year. The absence of Chris Henry should mean more balls for TJ. Finally, TJ had 11 targets inside the 10 yard line, compared with 1 for Chad Johnson so it looks like Carson Palmer is putting more trust in TJ. I think TJ and Ocho Cinco are more of a 1A and 1B pairing and should be drafted closely together. If there’s a low risk WR primed to make the top 7 or 8 by the end of the season, it’s TJ.
Reggie Brown – Get Reggie Brown on your roster and thank me later. He is entering his third year and will be McNabb’s primary target after putting up 800 yards and 8 TDs last year while splitting opportunities with Donte Stallworth AND having to switch QBs mid-stream. McNabb is reportedly healthy, Stallworth is gone and Brown only has to compete with Hank Basket, Greg Lewis and Kevin Curtis for touches. While those three are capable WR2s, Brown will no doubt be the main target in Philly. Currently ranked in the 20s on most draft boards, Brown should finish in the top 10.
Honorable Mention High Reward
Lee Evans – The #7 WR at the end of last season is currently ranked and being drafted around #15, though his composite ranking on Football Guys has creeped back into the top 10 very recently. He excelled last year as the top WR on his team. Both he and JP Losman are growing together. Better yet, I expect rookie RB Marshawn Lynch will force defenses to pay more attention to a receiver coming out of the backfield, giving Evans even more room to excel. Temper your expectations somewhat, however, as the Bills have a brutal schedule this year. Still, Evans is at least a low end WR1 that can be had at a WR2 draft spot.
Vincent Jackson – Dubbed the leading WR on the Chargers roster by his coaches and entering his third year, Jackson is currently ranked abysmally low on draft charts. Football Guys has him at #40 and Beckett’s Fantasy has him at #30. However, he is an honorable mention rather than a must-have high reward WR because the Bolts like to pass to Antonio Gates more than any one receiver. Plus Eric Parker actually had more production last year. Jackson may be a ‘sexy’ sleeper pick this year, so while you should like his upside, don’t get too excited by the spin. He can be safely taken as the 30th WR and should finish better than that.
High Risk
There aren’t many WRs on the top of draft boards that are that much riskier than any other WR. The exceptions are:
Larry Fitzgerald – As a consensus top 10 WR, (two Football Guys staffers rank him #2) Fitzgerald is too much of a risk to finish well outside the top 10. You can list the reasons – a new coach known for running the ball, a first year starting signal caller, a pro bowl WR opposite him to share receptions with and three missed games last year due to a hamstring. I like Fitzgerald, but I will reduce expectations until I know which WR Matt Leinart likes to throw to and until I see if Fitz can keep up the receptions under new OC Ken Whisenhunt.
Roy Williams – He will probably remain a top 20 WR just because OC Mike Martz is a pass happy mad man, but this consensus WR1 (top 10 to 12 on most boards) only finished in the top 10 once, and that was last year. With rookie WR Calvin Johnson supposedly a phenom waiting to bust out on the NFL, Williams’ stats are bound to decline somewhat from last year’s.
Honorable Mention High Risk
Randy Moss – While he is supposedly the best WR on the Patriots’ roster, it’s been more than three years since he was elite. Moss is in the honorable mention category, though, because I think most fantasy players will be wary of risking too much on a 30-year-old in a “spread the ball around” passing attack. Someone will invariably counter with “but Brady has never had an elite receiver before.” The jury is out on whether Moss is still elite plus Donte Stallworth had a higher YPC last year than Moss ever had so just maybe Moss won’t get all the deep balls on this team, at least until Stallworth hurts himself again.
Anquan Boldin – See Larry Fitzgerald’s write-up above. At least Boldin will be available later in the draft, so the risk isn’t as high.
Calvin Johnson/Mike Furrey – Like Roy Williams’ value, Furrey’s stock will certainly fall off if CJ is as good as advertised. That said, someone somewhere is going to see a 1000 yard wide receiver still on the board in the sixth and ‘steal’ Mike Furrey. As for CJ – rookie WRs are really bad bets.
High Reward
There are several potential high reward WRs this year. Among them:
TJ Houshmandzadeh – Yeah, there’s not really that much upside with TJ, but I’ve seen him ranked from 10th to 19th. If he falls outside the top 10 WRs, you should feel very comfortable taking him. TJ finished 10th in fantasy scoring last year, an improvement from 14th the year before, despite missing two games in both seasons. He had three 100 yard games, three 90 yard games and 9 TDs spread pretty evenly through last year. The absence of Chris Henry should mean more balls for TJ. Finally, TJ had 11 targets inside the 10 yard line, compared with 1 for Chad Johnson so it looks like Carson Palmer is putting more trust in TJ. I think TJ and Ocho Cinco are more of a 1A and 1B pairing and should be drafted closely together. If there’s a low risk WR primed to make the top 7 or 8 by the end of the season, it’s TJ.
Reggie Brown – Get Reggie Brown on your roster and thank me later. He is entering his third year and will be McNabb’s primary target after putting up 800 yards and 8 TDs last year while splitting opportunities with Donte Stallworth AND having to switch QBs mid-stream. McNabb is reportedly healthy, Stallworth is gone and Brown only has to compete with Hank Basket, Greg Lewis and Kevin Curtis for touches. While those three are capable WR2s, Brown will no doubt be the main target in Philly. Currently ranked in the 20s on most draft boards, Brown should finish in the top 10.
Honorable Mention High Reward
Lee Evans – The #7 WR at the end of last season is currently ranked and being drafted around #15, though his composite ranking on Football Guys has creeped back into the top 10 very recently. He excelled last year as the top WR on his team. Both he and JP Losman are growing together. Better yet, I expect rookie RB Marshawn Lynch will force defenses to pay more attention to a receiver coming out of the backfield, giving Evans even more room to excel. Temper your expectations somewhat, however, as the Bills have a brutal schedule this year. Still, Evans is at least a low end WR1 that can be had at a WR2 draft spot.
Vincent Jackson – Dubbed the leading WR on the Chargers roster by his coaches and entering his third year, Jackson is currently ranked abysmally low on draft charts. Football Guys has him at #40 and Beckett’s Fantasy has him at #30. However, he is an honorable mention rather than a must-have high reward WR because the Bolts like to pass to Antonio Gates more than any one receiver. Plus Eric Parker actually had more production last year. Jackson may be a ‘sexy’ sleeper pick this year, so while you should like his upside, don’t get too excited by the spin. He can be safely taken as the 30th WR and should finish better than that.
Tuesday, July 3, 2007
Bills' OL Bolstered, But...
This is from an excellent article breaking down the Bills' line. We still like Marshawn Lynch's chances of emerging as a decent RB2, but between the right side of the O line and the Bills brutal schedule, which the Bombers was bemoaing this morning, there is reason to temper expectations for any of the Bills' skill players.
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Tank Johnson Not DUI
Just being fair to the guy. I stand by the statement that he's not a great decision maker, but now that this traffic stop results in no charge, I wonder if the Bears wish they had held onto him.
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Week Two - Wide Receivers
Don’t be afraid to feature WR as your offensive power. Most guys will tell you that you gotta draft RBs. And most of the drafts I have been in are heavy in RB picks in the first few rounds. I will take a top WR over a #7 RB anytime. Sometimes the picks ahead of you dictate that you are taking WRs. Don’t panic. Last year I had two totally different teams and that won each of their leagues. One team was strong at RB, the other at WR. I didn’t get Peyton Manning, but I got the next best thing – his top two WRs, Harrison and Wayne. So while Manning was chewing up the league and picking up big FF points, so was I at WR. This has worked more than once for me.
Monday, July 2, 2007
Potential For Optimism In Cleveland
LeCharles Bentley, Center, a free agent signing last year that was expected to start in the middle for Cleveland but blew out a patella tendon in practice instead, says he will be ready to play this year.
The article on SI.com details how Bentley almost died as a result of infection and leaves some doubt that Bentley actually will be able to play, let alone start, but if you're looking for reasons for optimism in Cleveland, this can't hurt.
The article on SI.com details how Bentley almost died as a result of infection and leaves some doubt that Bentley actually will be able to play, let alone start, but if you're looking for reasons for optimism in Cleveland, this can't hurt.
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