Drafting Tips 2008, Part 1

This may be the year to pass on a first round running back and maybe the second and third round running back, too. The running back position, due to the rise of the RBBC and the passing offense, has lost its luster. QBs, WRs and even TEs are picking up the slack and they should warrant higher consideration on your draft boards.

Allow me to defend my tinfoil-hat wearing, black helicopter, secret UN codes on street signs, unconventional position. I shall start with the numbers for RBs the last two years. The #8 running back (Jones-Drew) in 2006 scored 223 fantasy points*. In 2007, Adrian Peterson and Joseph Addai tied for third with 222 fantasy points. Put plainly, the 8th best RB performance in 2006 would have been the third best last year. In an economic sense, the RB position devalued from 2006 to 2007.

2006     2007
418      293
318      269
317      222
251      222
249      210
243      207
234      187
223      174
196      172
177      170

For comparison's sake
         06         07
# 20  160      139
# 30  122      105


I don't have the 2005 ESPN numbers, but I don't think this is a one-time blip. I believe the RB numbers are going to stay down. Why? Primarily the rise of the RBBC and the increasing use of the passing game to move the ball. The NFL is changing, baby.

One more thing to note is that although the numbers at the top three in 2006 show a huge gulf of difference between them and the fourth spot, there's nowhere near the disparity in the 2007 numbers. (Ditto between first and second spots, BTW). However, after that, the numbers are bunched pretty well for both years, usually with no more than a point per game separating any position from the one before it.

What are the lessons - RBs are less valuable than they used to be, even the uberstuds have 'come back to the pack' and the difference between RB4 and RB-whatever isn't as large as we make it out to be in our heads.

Don't pay almost as much for the 4th RB as the 3rd RB and almost as much for the 5th as the 4th as if you're on some sort of 'slotting' system at an auction draft and don't assume you have to pick a guy 4th or 5th in a redraft because they're the 4th or 5th ranked RB.

"Okay, smart guy, then who do you draft in the middle of the first?," you ask. Well, if you're sure about your favorite RB's chances and you know he's the stud every down back, sure, take him, otherwise, consider Tom Brady. Dude scored 378* fantasy points last year. Assuming he comes back to earth a little bit, this is still essentially the same offense with a worse defense, meaning he may have to pass more and ain't coming back down that much. Brady is to QBs what LT is RBs - game changing for your roster, only more consistent and, if trends hold, higher scoring.

I'm going against conventional wisdom, here, I know. CW holds that there are 32 starting QBs and 12 fantasy teams. Not only are there enough to go around, but there are a lot of pretty good ones so they are nowhere near the commodity as an RB. I used that strategy myself last year in snagging Kitna and Romo - both undervalued and easily had for less than many RB3s.

Go against CW this year. Brady separated himself from second place by almost 100 points and from 10th place by 259 points - that's over 16 points per game difference. LT separated himself from the # 10 RB by a 'measly' 7.7 points per game. 16 points is a TD and a hundred yards. Having Brady as your QB is like having an extra stud WR on your roster every week. LT is worth a TD and 10 yards over the #10 RB which is nifty, but 'meh' by comparison.


*Points and stats per my ESPN Fantasy Football 2008 magazine.

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Earnest Graham

It looks like Earnest Graham has his contract now, reportedly 3 years totalling 10.5 million. I'm guessing that will pay him about 3 million this year. I'm starting to feel a little better about Graham now that he has a contract and Cadillac is headed to the PUP list.

Don't forget that Warrick Dunn is in town though. Dunn is an excellent third down back and for what it's worth he was pretty much an every down back the last two years in Atlanta.

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Carnell Williams, Earnest Graham

Stolen from Rotoworld.com, which credits Tampa Tribune:


The Tampa Tribune confirms that Carnell Williams is likely to begin the season on the PUP list.

No surprise here, but it's good to see some realistic expectations after all the positive press Cadillac has seen. In reality, the Bucs have no idea if Williams will even play this season. Fantasy leaguers don't need to draft him.

The Mustard: Now we can start to be a little more positive about Graham. I still think Dunn will cut into his ceiling, but Graham can be a good RB2.

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Tony Scheffler

I just looked at Tony Scheffler, what with Denver being on my mind now. I took the stats from week 7 to 17 and looked at them. Week by week, Scheffler was a good value. A little inconsistent, as are most TEs not named Witten, Gates or Gonzalez, but he also scored 11, 8, 14 and 16 fantasy points in games during that stretch. So about a third of the time, he's putting up WR-like stats.

I also annualized those stats (divide by 11 and multiply by 16) to come up with 740 yards and 7 TDs. That would have put him 7th on the list of fantasy TEs last year. Translation: he's a fantasy starter. His composite ranking on footballguys.com is 11 and that site says his ADP is TE12.

The Mustard: Scheffler is a draft day steal at TE.

Brandon Marshall, Dumb Fart Nominee

Brandon Marshall is giving me fits. I expect both Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall to progress this year, their third, and if you go back and look, neither were too shabby last year. (Marshall was 1325/7, Cutler was 3500/20 with 200/1 rushing.) Obviously, both are discussed as those who might break out this year, but you can still get them for less than more well-known players who have lower ceilings.

I discount the arm-injuring incident. People mock, but it is possible to hurt yourself while rough housing, so I take the story at face value. But this pattern of alleged domestic abuse is becoming troubling. Odds are the NFL will not act until the legal system does, however, will it be a distraction to Marshall and when will the legal issue be addressed? And of course, what distracts Marshall will likely affect Cutler's stats.

The Mustard: I'm dropping Marshall from someone I was targeting to someone I hope to get at a good value because of this news. Obviously, I'm not going to plan on having him at the end of the year, so if you or I take him, we need to be sure that our WR3 or WR4 pan out.

Mendenhall, Parker

From CBSsportsline.com:

Steelers plan to use Mendenhall: The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports the Steelers plan to use rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall a lot in 2008. The paper says the Steelers didn't change their draft plans when Mendenhall unexpectedly fell into their laps so he could be Willie Parker's caddie. If Mendenhall doesn't play right away, it'll be because he's injured. Based on early returns from voluntary workouts, Mendenhall has looked good. He has shown power and speed. The Steelers covet Mendenhall's ability to run between the tackles and catch the ball out of the backfield. He also has worked on returning kickoffs. Even when he's not in the backfield, the Steelers want to give him an opportunity to make plays.
(Updated 06/17/2008).

Hmmm... I know what this does to Parker's value. It kills it. I think we've already covered that. But with news that the Steelers plan to use Mendenhall 'a lot', it makes me wonder if Mendenhall is not a sleeper candidate.

The Mustard: I don't think he'll put Parker on the bench, so the ceiling is limited, but Mendenhall might be a cheap bye-week fill in for you. Take Parker in a similar draft slot - RB3.

Why I'm Down On Addai

First, let's define what I mean when I say I am 'down' on Addai. He is the best RB on a prolific offense who is capable of doing everything the coaches require of him and is capable of 4.8 YPC and has had almost 300 rushes in a season. For the sake of consistency, he's put up about 1000 rushing and about 400 receiving two years in a row. Addai has a pretty high floor.

The problem with Addai being pretty consistently ranked around 5th by the magazines is two-fold.

First, the magazines and websites overvalue the final stat line from last year and ignore the game by game results.

Addai had meaningful carries in 13 games because he missed one during the season and was rested at the end of the season. Week 15 (first week of playoffs) he put up about 7 points. In the championship week (16), he put up 8. Thanks a lot, there, Mr. Dungy. If your championship happened to be week 17, you got 2 points from him. (and you need to change leagues). Addai also scored 6 of his 15 TDs in two games. Otherwise, he had exactly one 2-TD game, which is  more than balanced with 4 games where he failed to find the end zone. Shabby? No, it's not. It's just not the stuff I want from my 'stud' RB selected with the #5 overall pick.

Second, the magazines and websites seem to be predicting an increase in carries and completely discounting the return of Dominic Rhodes and the continued presence of Kenton Keith. In 2006, Rhodes got almost half the carries. Rhodes was eventually relegated to second back behind Addai that season, then allowed to go to Oakland (or traded? either way...) And he's two years older. Nonetheless, there is a comfort factor in Indy with Rhodes, which means there's a chance he'll be used on roles that would otherwise go to Addai. Meanwhile, Kenton Keith, in relief of Addai last season, didn't look too shabby.

So here's the score: Dungy and Colts have run a split RBBC before and with Rhodes and Keith on the roster, there's a possibility they'll do it again this year; Addai isn't a consistent fantasy force, despite his very good weeks, especially considering Dungy 'disappeared' him during the fantasy playoff and championship weeks.

The Mustard: Just avoid him. You'd have to take him too high or pay too much for him. He'll be a value next year. In fact, I'd trade him now in a dynasty league.

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RBs: Questions At The Top

I've finished my initial RB projections. I don't necessarily rank them, but I'll put them into tiers based on draft type before a draft.

My first observation is that I really don't want one of the top running backs this year. Don't get me wrong - I projected them high and if I have the one of the first two picks and LT is there, I'm taking him. But I'm dropping out of the bidding early for him in my auction league. And if LT is gone and I have the second, third or fourth pick, I might take Tom Brady over Adrian Peterson, Brian Westbrook or Steven Jackson.

Am I nuts? No, just risk averse.

LT. As someone who has owned LT more than once, I can attest to the frustration he causes his owners. I've owned him when he'd go through stretches where he'd score 3 or 4 points for a game or two, then 37 points, then have another stretch of single digit points. A #1 RB both wins and loses games for you with point variations like that. He was had just one 5 point fantasy game last year, but if you recall, his owners were nonetheless frustrated at the start of the year because through week 9, he'd had only two LT-quality games. He'll finish the year in the top 5, probably as the top running back, but you'll never know when he'll score a measly total to go with those awesome weeks.

Adrian Peterson. The same condition that caused concern for AP last year still exists - he's injury prone and shares carries with Chester Taylor. Everyone shares carries these days, but Taylor is capable back who averaged 5.4 per carry last year. And AP did miss two weeks due to injury. Beyond that, he had less than 20 carries 8 times (19, 12, 12, 11, 15, 14, 9, 11) and he had less than 100 rushing yards 8 times (66, 63, 70, 45, 3, 78, 27, 36), ten counting the two weeks me missed. That three yard game came with 14 rushes against the 49ers, by the way. His most receptions in a game are 4, though he did make the most of his 19 receptions, gaining 268 yards or 14.1 per reception. So I ask you, is THIS what you want to stake your season on? Explosive? Yes. Dependable? No.

Brian Westbrook. In his 6 years, he has never completed all 16 games, but he completed 15 the last two, earning him the adjective 'dependable' in one fantasy magazine this year. In the last two years, he's averaged 2000 yards from scrimmage rushing and receiving with 11 and 12 TDs. Not too shabby. I'm still not sold though. He gets dinged up and there's always talk of spreading the ball around, especially this year. As the only dangerous player outside of McNabb in Philly, Westbrook has value, but to expect him to repeat last seasons stats (career highs) is a bit optimistic - and that's what you have to do if you draft him top 5.

Steven Jackson. I've actually projected him second behind LT. So what's my cause for concern? Maybe you remember last year ? He had just 1300 yards from scrimmage and just 6 TDs - mighty low totals for a consensus top 5 back. If he stays healthy, if his line is healthy and if Bulger and Holt can keep defenses from stacking against the run, Jackson is in for a big year. I THINK he'll finish in the top 5, but I have to be honest with myself. The Rams are just an injury or two away from Jackson having another also-ran type of season.

The good news in this year's RB rankings is that I believe there are five players who are very good bets to net at least 1600 yards from scrimage. Maybe more on that later. A little teaser - Joseph Addai is not on that list.

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This Year's Surprise RB, vol 2

Yesterday, I knew that Jonathan Stewart was highly thought of but the knock was that the coaching staff might not start a rookie, which matched my recollection of how they've handled every back in recent memory.

Today, I watched a lot of highlight material and read the scouting report on nfl.com. I have to admit, Stewart might be the best RB in this year's rookie class, with McFadden being the main competition for that honor. The most negative thing about him is that he seems to lack the shake and bake in the open field. He glides and accelerates and that's usually enough. He has good vision, good speed, excellent strength and balance. I could go on. Inside, outside, leaping for a poorly thrown ball and going the distance. I like him a lot. A final caveat -- he's had his share of injuries, most worrisome of which is at least three ankle sprains/breaks. I am not concerned about the toe injury he is recovering from. In fact, he was suffering from it at the combine and still did pretty well there.

What you and I have to decide is whether it's true Carolina wants to return to the days of Stephen Davis. If so, then Deangelo Williams is nothing more than a pretty good change of pace back and Stewart will get 250 or more touches. If not, maybe 200 touches? Either way, that's decent value and the upside makes Stewart a heck of a late-round pick.

Other than Stewart, Matt Forte is still the starter in Chicago, Kevin Smith is bound to start in Detroit and Run DMC is going to be the lead dog in an RBBC in Oakland.

It's only been 24 hours or so, but I still like Forte of that bunch.

Of the rookies, Forte and Stewart appear to be the best bets, followed by Smith/DMC (take your pick between them) and I think Slaton is a fine RB 4 gamble for the reasons previously mentioned.

I haven't forgotten Rashard Mendenhall. I think he will be a value because I think he's going to play the Bettis role to Willie Parker. I just think that he has a lower ceiling than the other rookie bound for RBBC, McFadden. Mendenhall is a bit more of a sure thing than Slaton with your RB4 slot, just nowhere near as likely in my opinion to crack the top 15 or so in running back rankings.

Who Is This Year's Surprise RB?

Last year, I watched the Bombers draft Adrian Peterson for a buck in our auction league. My stable was full and no one else challenged him for an 'injury-prone' rookie who was going to spell starter Chester Taylor and then probably break a bone in week 6. Seems to me that worked out pretty well in hindsight.

The year before, he sent me to cover another auction for him with the instructions, whatever you do, get Peyton Manning and Frank Gore. 'Who the heck is Frank Gore', I asked. 'He's going to be the starting RB for the 'Niners,' he said.

While I won our auction league last year, it was in spite of Adrian Peterson being on the Bomber's squad, and the Bombers did ride Gore to a championship the year before.

I thought I had searched pretty hard for the value plays at RB last year and among my selections on various teams were Brandon Jacobs and the supposed starters for Green Bay and Detroit. You see I only remember one of their names off the top of my head, right? My picks for 'secret top-five RBs' in my auction league last year were Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones. If I swore, I'd do so here. I won my auction league by getting Ryan Grant and Justin Fargas off the waiver wire to complement Brandon Jacobs. That and TO, TJ Houshmandzedah, Jason Witten and I think it with the Steelers D I started most often.

I digress... The point is, the Bombers make a pretty good habit of finding a stud for an insane value on draft day. I'm trying but I can't claim quite the success he's had. We've been talking this year already, so maybe I can get him to post an article to share his secrets.

Pending that, I'm searching and I have some early candidates.

From the rookies - Matt Forte, Kevin Smith and Darren 'Run DMC' McFadden will surely be day one starters. I think DMC will have to share work with Fargas and Bush and the team is trying to put him in the slot and do other creative things with him. I don't think they intend to use him 25 carries a game. Smith does have a little competition to beat the incumbent and should do so, but in the early games he may have to split carries with Tatum Bell. I also don't know how to gauge how often the team will run the ball considering they have to adapt from departed Mike Martz's schemes. That leaves Forte. I think he'll get about 250-300 touches counting receptions and should put up decent stats. He could be a real steal on draft day.

Also from the rookie crowd, I'm still going against the grain in liking Steve Slaton. You tell me what Ahman Green and Chris Brown do to scare anyone and I'll back off. Slaton will push from day one, overtaking one or both of the starters and then even if neither Green nor Brown gets hurt, he could end the year as the stud on a relatively prolific offense.

Jonathan Stewart in Carolina ... yeah, maybe. I'll have to look here some more.

From the veterans - Thomas Jones is still one of my leading candidates. I know he burned me last year. Accordingly, he is the consensus #23 back on footballguys.com. All he needs to do is add a few more yards and get back to a normal level of 6-8 TDs and he's low-level RB at a low-RB2 price. I think the OL has improved enough to justify that risk.

Other considerations for a break out veteran are Michael Turner - we know he can run, but can he do it every down and can he do it in Atlanta and how much will Jerious Norwood cut into his carries? - and Willis McGahee. McGahee is a top 10 back right now, so finishing in the top 5 is not outside the bounds of expecations, but with Cam Cameron around, it just might happen. The new QB, whoever he may be, may have McGahee facing 8 man fronts, but if Cam can make Ronnie Brown the #1 fantasy RB after week 7 with the QBs he had in Miami, he should be able to do it with McGahee. One more for now - Maurice Jones-Drew. He's one Fred Taylor injury away from superstardom, I think.

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Ah-ha! Matt Schaub

I hereby nominate Matt Schaub for the QB you want to sneak onto your team.

He got hurt and missed 5 whole games and parts of three games last year. His stat lines don't look so great everything being all mixed together and averaged up. But let's look at the 8 games he started and finished:

16 of 22 for 225 with 1 TD and 1 INT
20 of 28 for 227 with 2 TD
27 of 33 for 236 with 1 TD and 2 INT
28 of 40 for 317 with 1 TD
20 of 34 for 294 with 0 TD and 1 INT
19 of 31 for 251 with 0 TD and 1 INT
21 of 33 for 293 and 2 TD
22 of 36 for 256 with 2 TD and 2 INT

Doubled to make a whole year and we get

346 of 514 for 4198 with 18 TD and 14 INT

And that's without Andre Johnson for four of those games, including both 0 TD games and two of the three games with just one TD. It's not hard to imagine adding two TDs to the stats above, doubling that for our 16 game projections and coming up with 22 TDs to go along with those 4200 years. That would have made him the 10th best QB last year.

So do you think he'll be a little more comfortable in his second year?

One more stat that speaks well - yards per attempt is 7.8. As I learned from my Rotowire magazine last year, good QBs are above 7.5. Last year, Tom Brady led with 8.3. In between them were Tony Romo, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Brett Favre. That's pretty nice company, eh?

If Schaub can avoid the injury bug, I like the value he represents. To help with that, his line should be better with a first round draft pick to compete at LT and a new C from Denver. There's competition at RG where the backup made a good case to be the starter in four games last year. Finally, the one-time LT-of-the-future is coming back from injury to compete for time. Oh, and Alex Gibbs is expected to help coach the line up. The running game should also improve with 'starter' Ahman Green back from injury and the speedy Steve Slaton to mix things up.

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Risk and Reward QBs

One of the things that I always try to do is avoid the consensus opinion. A consensus is usually the 'safe' bet, and by safe, I mean one designed not to get you laughed at on draft day. Last year, I was able to let more questionable RBs and QBs slide while I targeted Brandon Jacobs and Jon Kitna. This year, those players are getting more love and are less likely to be value plays.

So which high value QBs are candidates to let slide and which are candidates to be values? I have some nominations.

High Risk

Matt Lienart/Kurt Warner. I think most people will avoid either, but if you could know for sure one would start and finish the season as the lucky guy throwing to Boldin and Fitzgerald, taking him might not be a bad idea. Unfortunately, all we can do is guess and then hope it doesn't change mid-season. I'll pass, thanks.

Derek Anderson. He's the 9th ranked QB on Footballguys.com right now. The problem is if you take him, you need to turn right around and grab insurance quickly. Anderson had a great year, but the team has invested a lot in terms of draft picks and $$ in Quinn. Sooner or later they'll give Quinn an opportunity. Perhaps more importantly, as I've already discussed in a previous post, pro-football-reference.com sliced the stats and Anderson looks to have benefited from facing some really bad passing defenses last year. He's certain to come back to earth this year.

Medium Risk

Tony Romo. Say what? Yes, he's top 5 in my rankings. However, there is some rumor that Tony Sparano, the new coach of Miami was the 'real' genius behind Dallas' offense. I'm hedging my bets on Romo and won't reach for him.

Jake Delhomme. I think he'll be a serviceable QB if he starts most of the year, but I'm afraid some will be tempted to extrapolate stats from the three games he played last year against 3 of the worst pass defenses.

Honorable Mention Risk

Tom Brady.  Most likely he won't repeat last year's stats. The team did move more toward the run going down the stretch.

High Reward

LATE EDITION: Matt Schaub. See this article above. Should be a top 10 if healthy and you can have him as your backup.

David Garrard. The stats work pro-football-reference.com did on the QBs from last year showed that Garrard was the second most effective QB behind Tom Brady. If you look at the games he completed, he had at least one TD in each of them and only failed to go above 200 yards three times, including a 197 yard effort. If he had started all year, he could easily have had 24-26 TDs and 3500 yards. He's ranked #12 right now and could easily finish higher.

Medium Reward

Jay Cutler. He finished in my top 10-ish list last year and is ranked 11 this year - essentially the crowd is betting he'll do about what he did last year. I'm betting he will comfortably finish in the top 10 in his third year.

Honorable Mention Reward

Marc Bulger. He's a 3800 yard passer when he completes all 16 games. Coupled with at a TD total in the mid-20s and he might make a serviceable starter all year. Unfortunately, there are still about 12-13 QBs I'd take a head of him. He almost always get injured. The line in St. Louis is one or two key injuries away from being as awful as it was last year and though Holt is great, the WR corps is getting older and more suspect.

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Fantasy Football Sites Are Up

Foxnews and Yahoo, and probably other public, free fantasy football sites, are now registering leagues and teams.

One thing I noticed is that Yahoo's passing TDs are now 4 points. I believe that's a change from last year, when it was 6. I'll try to doublecheck. This, to me, is a bummer. A TD is 6 points, by golly. Who every thought a 4 point TD made sense? The goal, I assume is to make QBs less valuable. Pfft. If anything, they need to make RBs less valuable. There are fewer stud RBs and the gap between RB performance has historically been higher - by which I mean the gap between #1 QB and the number #12 QB isn't usually as high as between the #1 RB and the #12 RB. Brady may have blown that curve last year, but the rest of the league is going to catch up.

Don't kid yourself because this is significant. High-TD, low yardage QBs such as Roethlisberger are going to be less valuable in Yahoo this year.  Big Ben threw 32 TDs last year. The rules change removes 64 fantasy points from him - 4 points per game. Without running the numbers to see the exact impact, I'm pretty certain that would drop him several slots in the final rankings below higher yardage QBs.

On the plus side, Yahoo is now offering a free keeper league. Count me in. Redraft is nice, but auctions and keepers are certainly better options for competitive players. Both formats remove some of the luck element. Any schmo with a magazine might get lucky and beat you, but if you can look forward or find a value, you can separate yourself from the also-rans in keeper or auction formats.

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Ben Roethlisberger, Santonio Holmes get props from Cowher

CBSsportsline has an excellent Q&A with Cowher in which he basically agrees that the NFL is moving toward a pass-first league, that he's not surprised the Steelers passed more last year and that he expects them to continue passing more this year than in years past. With the addition of Rashard Mendenhall and Limas Sweed, the offensive output might even be greater, he says.

Cowher also verifies what we fantasy geeks have figured out - O lines matter. The departure of Faneca will be bad for the Steelers and good for Thomas Jones - both points I've made. (/pats self on back) Faneca will lend his knowledge to third-year tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson and third-year center Nick Mangold, making them better as well, he adds.

Finally, Cowher confirms the third year receiver phenomenon in a discussion on Santonio Holmes. Holmes, by the way got 942 and 8 last year with an 18.1 average yards per catch.

There, I told you all you need to know about the article, but it is an enlightening read and probably not time wasted if you want to check it out.

The Mustard: This bodes well for Roethlisberger, Santonio Holmes and Thomas Jones, plus I see no reason that Heath Miller couldn't reproduce last year's stats. Miller was steady if not particularly explosive last year. If the Steelers decide to compensate for the loss of Faneca by passing to open up the run, then Big Ben, Holmes and Miller could all be value plays. Thomas Jones, you know already, I'm high on this year as a value play that's almost sure to exceed his draft day cost. I haven't studied Mendenhall and Willie Parker, so if I had to draft today, I'd avoid them both until at least RB3.

Quarterbacks 2008

I've been working on my RB projections but today I came across a statistical slicing and dicing of the QBs' 2007 output on pro-football-reference.com, here. A lot of times this early in the season, I make a mental note that I found a neat article and then later I can't remember where. This was too potentially valuable to ignore.

Chase Stuart employed something similar to the defense adjusted value over average. (See Footballoutsiders.com) You'll have to read Stuart's blog to try get the details, but he starts by weighting yards, TDs and INTs to come up with an adjusted yard per attempt stat - which is basically a measure of a QB's effectiveness - how well they move the ball while scoring and not turning it over.

However, this is a stat of limited value. After all, the defenses faced by each QB vary in quality and this is where the DVOA style calculation comes in. He then uses the defensive rankings against the pass and weights the performance of each QB based on the strength of the defenses faced, creating another ranking - the rearview adjusted yards per attempt (RAT). I don't pretend to understand the meaning of the number Tom Brady is 2.9 and QBs like Eli Manning are negative. The numbers bear no resemblance to yards per attempt stat, but the point is it's a ranking that includes both a weighted YPA and a DVOA. That there is valuable stuff.

It's still not perfect, though, because it's still basically a stat on effectiveness. I mean Carson Palmer's RAT is .07 and David Garrard's is the second highest on the list - 2.57. Garrard is amazingly efficient, even accounting for the strength of the defenses he faced, but he's no where near the fantasy QB that Palmer is.

So here's what I did. Realizing that all things are not equal, I created a list of QBs using last year's attempts, yards and TDs. I want a QB that throws the ball a lot, gets his yards and scores, afterall. Using those stats to create my baseline rankings, I then used Stuart's RAT as justification for tweaking my rankings.

Do I have a final list? No, there's still far too much offseason. Not only that, I have to be sure I tweak based on free agent moves, past history and coaching changes, though it doesn't look like those things will have much affect at the top of the rankings.

As of now, what do I see?

-- Brady, Manning, Brees and Romo are still the top 4

-- I am surprised to see Matt Hasselbeck 5th on my rankings. Hasselbeck mocked me last year by putting up career numbers after I said he was basically an average QB. With an O line that is getting more suspect and the RB position in transition, I suspect they may continue to rely on Hasselbeck's arm.

-- Carson Palmer's RAT is surprisingly low. Though he's currently sixth by this ranking method, I have to admit that right now, I might be tempted to let Palmer get by me in the draft out of fear that he drops off this year.

-- Eli Manning's not looking so hot by this method. That said, I was still considering nabbing him as my QB2 in case he channels his post season performance into the regular season

-- Jay Cutler looks highly intriguing by this method, bolstering my growing enthusiasm for him this year.

-- Roethlisberger is still top 10 by this method, but not as high as I expected given his 32 TD performance last year.

-- Derek Anderson's RAT was negative. He faced some sugarplum defenses last year. Between that and the Brady Quinn specter, I'm putting Anderson into RB2 territory. I don't want to count on him to carry my team.

Benson Unemployed, Forte Ascendant

As you no doubt know by now, Cedric Benson got caught DUI/DWi or whatever in Texas and was cut from the Bears. If Benson makes it back on a roster, I suspect it will be due to injury and that he will be a future Ron Dayne or TJ Duckett - second or third string and always rumored to vulture carries/TDs from some other starting running back. In short, he'll make some team feel better about their RB depth, but he'll never be a fantasy player of any real relevance.

As for the fantasy RB impact in Chicago, I'll side with those who think it all depends on whether and who the Bears sign to replace Benson. If a Lamont Jordan or a Shaun Alexander come to town, it's a bit trickier to judge. Otherwise, I think Forte is a good play on draft day.

In a Chicagobears.com article on Forte is this quote from prior to the release of Benson:

“He’s been tremendous,” said offensive coordinator Ron Turner. “He’s a very intelligent young man. We’re not afraid to call anything in our offense with him. Sure, he’s made some mistakes and he’s got some things to clean up technique-wise and assignment-wise and all that. We’ll continue to work on that. But he’s a very bright young man that can do a lot of things.”

Benson, Dumb Fart Again?

The AP reports:

"Authorities said Benson was arrested early Saturday after he failed a field sobriety test. The former first-round draft pick was charged with driving while intoxicated and released on bond."

Guess what? I read it was between 3-4 a.m.

"Benson’s attorney said the former Texas star had a few drinks with dinner but didn’t think he was intoxicated, and cooperated with police."

If cooperation includes refusing breath and blood tests. Oy vey.

"Still, attorney Sam Bassett acknowledged, “He’s probably in trouble with his team for breaking curfew and having anything to drink under the circumstances.”

Turns out his attorney is a bit brighter than Benson.

"Bears general manager Jerry Angelo said he’d not spoken to Benson but called the situation unfortunate.

“Disappointment is too much an often-used word when we’re talking about Cedric, and the number one lesson for every player is protect your job,” Angelo said. “So we’re all held accountable for our actions.”

The Mustard: Matt Forte is looking more and more valuable.

After Midnight: Lynch Edition

I'm working on my RB projections now and Lynch looks to be a top 10-ish back in my estimation. The thing hanging over his head right now is this hit and run allegation. Guess what? It was another 'early morning' incident. I think it was 2:30 or 3:30 in the morning.

Fantasy-wise this should have little impact. As frustrated as the local police seem to be, I doubt they're in a hurry to put the Bills' starting RB in jail. One thing that struck me odd was how the police were threatening to charge him with obstruction for not coming to the police station. Excuse me? If he's the suspect, he's under no obligation to help the case against him AND he was going to practice so if there was enough to arrest him, the police knew where he was AND he had hired a lawyer to represent him. What a joke.

I am a little concerned about Lynch's character, though. If he knew that someone had been hit by his vehicle and he was in his vehicle at the time, whether he was driving it or not, then not taking care of the person is callous disregard for a fellow human being.

Seahawks Camp Is Concerning

Stealing unashamedly from footballguys.com:

Source: Clare Farnsworth, Seattle Post-Intelligencer

As minicamp begins today, Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck's most reliable receiver, Bobby Engram, is threatening to prolong a no-show aimed at getting a contract extension, and his highest-paid receiver, Deion Branch, is continuing to rehab from knee surgery. Three-fifths of Hasselbeck's starting offensive line also is on the mend -- left tackle Walter Jones, center Chris Spencer and right guard Rob Sims. His running game is in transition, following the release of Shaun Alexander and the free-agent additions of Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett. His best option at the all-important tight end position, John Carlson, is a rookie.

Shudders. Seriously, though, Seattle always seems to produce.

Julius Jones or Maurice Morris

Maybe it's because I haven't paid enough attention to Seattle, but I can't figure out why everyone thinks Julius Jones is going to be the starter. I know Maurice Morris is 'just a backup' but I think I've pointed out before that he has pretty decent stats. Jones, on the other hand, lost his starting gig and has pretty average stats.

And what's more, everyone assumes TJ Duckett is #2 and going to get the goal line work. Duckett is on his fourth team in as many years. He's scored 5 TDs in the last two years. How valuable do you think he was to Atlanta, Washington and Detroit - who all let him go at the end of the last three seasons?

Holmgren, in a quote that I don't think is getting enough play, told the media in early May: "The running back position, Julius and Mo (Morris) will both play. I have to kind of see how we are going to use Duckett. That is what I am looking at right now; Fullback, halfback. He has been a halfback but I would like him to move into fullback a little bit." (as reported by Seahawks Insider)

Jones is being paid 12 million over 4 years. Duckett is being paid 13 million over five years. Morris is the last year of a contract that is probably paying him between 1 and 2 million this year. I don't know how their contracts are structured, but none of those numbers are so large that you could make the argument one is the clear cut starter based on dollars alone.

Between the stats, the contracts and the quote from Holmgren, I don't think Holmgren knows who's going to be starter in game 1. He said they're both going to play, so if we take him at his word, it's RBBC in Seattle.

The Mustard: Avoid either except as a gamble. A lot of people are assuming Jones is going to start, which would make him valuable, but I'm not sold. If anything, I'm taking Morris as my RB4 and passing on Jones.