A Carolina Resurgence?

I'm reading an awful lot about how Jake Delhomme is better, how the offense in Carolina was doing great until he was lost last year and how both Delhomme and Steve Smith look good in camp. The Panthers also picked up a first round running back in Jonathan Stewart to boost a running game and free agent WRs Muhsin Muhammed and DJ Hackett. FANTASY GOLD!! Really?

Delhomme put up 600 yards and 8 TDs in the first three games last year against 1 INT. Roughly, that was a pace for 3000+ yards and 40+ TDs with only 5 INTs. Unfortunately, those stats were against St. Louis, Houston and Atlanta - 25th, 26th, and 27th in the NFL against the pass. Clearly those numbers aren't to be expected from Delhomme across the whole season. In fact, he averaged ONLY 200 yards per game against those teams. That's a little troubling. Finally, Delhomme missed three games in 06 and put up only 2800 yards and 17 TDs. Delhomme was good fantasy QB in 04 and 05, but that was three years ago, he wasn't spectacular in 06 and he missed most of 07. How much stock do you want to put in Delhomme? He's a QB2 with some hope of being a good #1.

Steve Smith finished 07 with 1000 yards and 7 TDs, down from 1166 and 8 in 06. It's widely reported that Smith's production is suffering because Carolina lacks a decent WR2. They also don't have a serious threat at TE. To compensate, the Panthers added Hackett and Muhammed. One has a reputation for being injured and the other is 35 with far more sub-1000 yard seasons than 1000 yard seasons. Muhammed has been durable, however and his production totals the last three years are understandable given he was in Chicago. I'm optimistic that between Hackett and Muhammed, Steve Smith will be double and triple covered less often this year, increasing his stats.

I think the running game will improve this year. The team has added a lot of help on line and drafted a first round RB. Veteran Deangelo Williams has shown flashes of ability, but nothing to cause me to assume he'll keep rookie Stewart from having an opportunity to win the starting job. I like Stewart here to finish the season as RB1 in Carolina. Bear in mind that with an all-new line and a weak overall rushing attack last year, I'm not expecting miracles.

The Mustard: I'd gamble on Stewart late as RB4 who might be starting for you by the end of the season. Steve Smith is being projected between 4th and 12th. If he finished with 1200 and 10 this year, that'd be 180 fantasy points. 180 points would have been the 7th WR last year. Houshmandzadeh, Colston and Brandon Marshall will also push for a top 5-7 ranking this year, so I think taking Smith as 7th WR off the board is close to his ceiling. Delhomme is a QB2. I haven't gone through all the QBs yet, so there may be other QB2s I would rather gamble on depending where Delhomme is going in fantasy drafts.