I've noticed some significant movement in just the last few weeks - Deangelo Williams going nuts, for one example. In any event, here's the season ending lists for posterity from Yahoo standard scoring:
QB
Rivers 251
Brees 247
Rodgers 241
Cutler 229
Peyton 225
Warner 210
Cassel 209
Romo 194
Thigpen 191
McNabb 187
Eli 175
Favre 167
Pennington 166
Garrard 164
Ryan 154
Roethlisberger 148
Flacco 143
Note:
Anderson 77
Kitna 37
Carson Palmer 29
WR
Fitzgerald 185
C Johnson 174
A Johnson 171
Jennings 168
Boldin 163
White 162
S. Smith 159
R. Moss 154
A. Bryant 150
TO 146
Wayne 143
V. Jackson 142
B. Marshall 141
Note:
S. Moss 133
K. Walter 128
I. Bruce 118
L. Evans 110
Housh 107
Colston 74
C. Johnson 71
RB
Deangelo Williams 255
M. Turner 241
T. Jones 223
M. Forte 218
If you had those four as your top RBs going into the year - you're a prophet.
AP 217
Westbrook 205
Jones-Drew 197
Steve Slaton 194
Portis 193
Chris Johnson 192
Brandon Jacobs 190
LT 185
Note:
Pierre Thomas 148
S. Jackson 142
Ryan Grant 137
McGahee 99
Addai 96
W. Parker 86
TE
Gonzo 147
Witten 108
Dallas Clark 107
Gates 105
Shiancoe 94
Daniels 87
John Carlson 85
Zach Miller 74
Cooley 74
Fasano 71
Boss 69
Kicker
Gostkowski 152
Bironas 144
Akers 138
Lindell 136
Carney 134
Elam 134
Longwell 134
Crosby 131
Bryant 130
K. Brown 129
Prater 128
And the list goes on minus one or two points a slot...
Defenses
Baltimore 183
Tennessee 169
Pittsburgh 164
NY Jets 147
Chicago 146
Philadelphia 145
Tampa 143
NY Giants 142
Minnesota 139
Indianapolis 128
Green Bay 127
Dallas 127
Miami 126
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Auction League After Action Report
At an auction draft, you can have any player if you're willing to commit the money. Budget right, do a little research and you can pretty much know who is going to be the core of your team. My plan this year was to bank on the rise of the WR compared to the fall of the RB, reasoning that the WRs would be the better value compared to over priced RBs.
After crunching the numbers, examining the trends, and noting the player and coaching movements, I decided that my two favorite high ceiling, lower cost WR plays were Marques Colston and Andre Johnson. I passed on a lot of big names and was the last one to get a player. I waited until most teams had two or more players, actually. It was starting to get scary sitting there with all my auction draft cap still available while others had already spent more than half of theirs. It seemed that was working in my favor as people had already spent big and I got both Colston and Johnson well below my budget.
Being flush with cash and under budget with two core players nailed down turned out to be a curse because it freed me to bid on players I didn't really want. Unfortunately, I landed two of them.
I think it was Steven Jackson first. I had him as a top 10 player, I admit, but he wasn't a targeted player of mine either. Still, sitting there at $20, I was thinking he was worth at least $25 or $30, so I dropped $21 on him and won the bid. If there hadn't just been a rash of people paying WAY too much for QBs, there would have been more cash out there and I would have lost Jackson. In any event, this was bad call number one.
Bad call number two followed shortly.
I lost my two targeted QBs - Jay Cutler and Drew Brees. After losing Cutler and still being under budget, I decided I really wanted Brees yet after making him the most expensive QB in the league, I just couldn't bid another two bucks and lost him. At the time, I was glad but in retrospect, Brees is right now the #1 QB in fantasy football. Instead I got Peyton Manning at the bargain price of $19. Bad move number two.
Peyton started off slow, as I anticipated due to his knee injury, but he never really reached stardom this year either.
After landing Manning, the guy who got Brees looked at my roster and started saying how strong it was. He's all respecting my picks and I'm starting to get sick because it's dawning on me I spent $40 of my $100 cap on players I didn't really want while the QBs I did want were on someone else's roster.
The TEs were, in my opinion, going for too much money but when it got down to Shockey as my last top tier TE option (yeah, bad call, I know), I had to overpay for him - somewhere between 7 and 9 dollars. Thankfully I got Tony Gonzalez for $2. One of the few bright spots on my roster - he is the #1 TE in fantasy football right now.
So after about doubling my budget for both QB and TE and spending almost my entire RB budget on Jackson, I'm tapped out. I ended up not being able to win Brandon Marshall or Jericho Cotchery as #3 and #4 WR. I figured I'd be okay at RB, but that didn't work out either.
For RBs, I had a slew of options I was willing to consider. Jamal Lewis and Thomas Jones were my top value plays. I got Lewis, which was alright but not good, but surprisingly I lacked the budget to compete for Jones. I figured no one would want him after he disappointed so greatly last year and got a year older. Oh, well.
Other options I wanted at RB included Michael Turner, Jonathan Stewart, Steve Slaton and I even identified Maurice Morris as my secret last few rounds 1 dollar player. I ended up with Jackson, Lewis, Morris and Chris Perry. Morris, I believe, had won the starting role in Seattle before being injured.
Perry is a short story of his own. I was never sold on Perry, but with my $ situation and the RBs that were left, he was a long shot hope at least. So after I put him up for a dollar and the Bombers started going: 'He's a starting RB, people, don't let him go for a buck,' that really strained my charity. I think my red face, loud voice and finger pointing probably went unnoticed though. It was subtle red-faced pointing, I think.
I got Tampa for $2, Denver for a dollar or two, and for kickers I took Brandon Coutu and someone else. Coutu was, allegedly, going to be the starting kicker for the Seahawks. I lost Longwell to a vulture with a few more dollars but I ended up with John Carney and Jason Elam off the wire eventually - numbers two and three in fantasy football right now.
As you might recall - Colston and Maurice Morris got hurt in week one, both of which I started. It didn't help that the Texans and Andre Johnson started off slow along with Peyton Manning. Jackson got injured in there somewhere and suffered through a coaching change. I was drug through broken glass and mud to a 1-5 start.
I don't really blame the injuries because I know darn well that if I hadn't spent $40 on players I didn't want, I would have had Thomas Jones, maybe Michael Turner and certainly Jericho Cotchery (I lost him late - two of us saved $ for him and the other guy saved more.) Cotchery has dropped off some but at the beginning of the year, he would have won me a game or two and that would have made the difference in my making the playoffs. I finished 6-7, missing by a game.
Turner and Jones, meanwhile, are the number one and two RBs in fantasy football. Doh!
Just imagine if I'd had the $ to get both of them. In a league where the best player is 8-5 and the worst is 5-8, I would have been a gorilla.
If 'if's and 'but's were candy and nuts, I'd have a Merrier Christmas, right?
After crunching the numbers, examining the trends, and noting the player and coaching movements, I decided that my two favorite high ceiling, lower cost WR plays were Marques Colston and Andre Johnson. I passed on a lot of big names and was the last one to get a player. I waited until most teams had two or more players, actually. It was starting to get scary sitting there with all my auction draft cap still available while others had already spent more than half of theirs. It seemed that was working in my favor as people had already spent big and I got both Colston and Johnson well below my budget.
Being flush with cash and under budget with two core players nailed down turned out to be a curse because it freed me to bid on players I didn't really want. Unfortunately, I landed two of them.
I think it was Steven Jackson first. I had him as a top 10 player, I admit, but he wasn't a targeted player of mine either. Still, sitting there at $20, I was thinking he was worth at least $25 or $30, so I dropped $21 on him and won the bid. If there hadn't just been a rash of people paying WAY too much for QBs, there would have been more cash out there and I would have lost Jackson. In any event, this was bad call number one.
Bad call number two followed shortly.
I lost my two targeted QBs - Jay Cutler and Drew Brees. After losing Cutler and still being under budget, I decided I really wanted Brees yet after making him the most expensive QB in the league, I just couldn't bid another two bucks and lost him. At the time, I was glad but in retrospect, Brees is right now the #1 QB in fantasy football. Instead I got Peyton Manning at the bargain price of $19. Bad move number two.
Peyton started off slow, as I anticipated due to his knee injury, but he never really reached stardom this year either.
After landing Manning, the guy who got Brees looked at my roster and started saying how strong it was. He's all respecting my picks and I'm starting to get sick because it's dawning on me I spent $40 of my $100 cap on players I didn't really want while the QBs I did want were on someone else's roster.
The TEs were, in my opinion, going for too much money but when it got down to Shockey as my last top tier TE option (yeah, bad call, I know), I had to overpay for him - somewhere between 7 and 9 dollars. Thankfully I got Tony Gonzalez for $2. One of the few bright spots on my roster - he is the #1 TE in fantasy football right now.
So after about doubling my budget for both QB and TE and spending almost my entire RB budget on Jackson, I'm tapped out. I ended up not being able to win Brandon Marshall or Jericho Cotchery as #3 and #4 WR. I figured I'd be okay at RB, but that didn't work out either.
For RBs, I had a slew of options I was willing to consider. Jamal Lewis and Thomas Jones were my top value plays. I got Lewis, which was alright but not good, but surprisingly I lacked the budget to compete for Jones. I figured no one would want him after he disappointed so greatly last year and got a year older. Oh, well.
Other options I wanted at RB included Michael Turner, Jonathan Stewart, Steve Slaton and I even identified Maurice Morris as my secret last few rounds 1 dollar player. I ended up with Jackson, Lewis, Morris and Chris Perry. Morris, I believe, had won the starting role in Seattle before being injured.
Perry is a short story of his own. I was never sold on Perry, but with my $ situation and the RBs that were left, he was a long shot hope at least. So after I put him up for a dollar and the Bombers started going: 'He's a starting RB, people, don't let him go for a buck,' that really strained my charity. I think my red face, loud voice and finger pointing probably went unnoticed though. It was subtle red-faced pointing, I think.
I got Tampa for $2, Denver for a dollar or two, and for kickers I took Brandon Coutu and someone else. Coutu was, allegedly, going to be the starting kicker for the Seahawks. I lost Longwell to a vulture with a few more dollars but I ended up with John Carney and Jason Elam off the wire eventually - numbers two and three in fantasy football right now.
As you might recall - Colston and Maurice Morris got hurt in week one, both of which I started. It didn't help that the Texans and Andre Johnson started off slow along with Peyton Manning. Jackson got injured in there somewhere and suffered through a coaching change. I was drug through broken glass and mud to a 1-5 start.
I don't really blame the injuries because I know darn well that if I hadn't spent $40 on players I didn't want, I would have had Thomas Jones, maybe Michael Turner and certainly Jericho Cotchery (I lost him late - two of us saved $ for him and the other guy saved more.) Cotchery has dropped off some but at the beginning of the year, he would have won me a game or two and that would have made the difference in my making the playoffs. I finished 6-7, missing by a game.
Turner and Jones, meanwhile, are the number one and two RBs in fantasy football. Doh!
Just imagine if I'd had the $ to get both of them. In a league where the best player is 8-5 and the worst is 5-8, I would have been a gorilla.
If 'if's and 'but's were candy and nuts, I'd have a Merrier Christmas, right?
Blogged with the Flock Browser
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
I'm Only Mostly Dead
Events converge and the next thing you know you're off the blog habit.
My fourth fantasy football draft happened shortly after my last post but events in my life kept me from posting it - one of which was that I wasn't really that excited about the draft. Then I went like 0-3 to start the year in that league. Combine that with my Auburn Tigers loading the FAIL train with turdulence and I really just lost interest in football for the first half of this season.
At my auction draft, the Bombers and I fought over several of the same players and he won most of the battles. I got Peyton Manning and Steven Jackson as consolation prizes. At the time, they were excellent values. In retrospect at least Manning still is.
Unlike last year, when I was the consensus 'worst team' in the league (I won, suckas!) this year some were saying things like 'How'd he get that roster. Wow. That's strong.' I was ill at ease, though, because I lost most of my targeted players and I didn't particularly want to spend 40% of my bidding cap on Manning and Jackson. It left me lacking depth and that turned out to hurt.
(BTW, I wanted and lost Thomas Jones, Jay Cutler, Matt Schaub, Brandon Marshall, Tony Sheffler, Michael Turner, Jericho Cotchery and Ryan Longwell - most of which turned out to be great this year, though I missed on my hopes for the Texans. But after blowing my budget on Manning and Jackson, who were 'too good of a value to pass up', I just didn't have the $$ to get everyone I wanted.)
From 0-3 to 1-5 in the auction league, things looked bleak. Fortunately it turns out I was only mostly dead.
I've crawled up to 6-6 and until this week I was low scorer, so I got my fair share of luck to scrape up a couple of those wins, no doubt. We have one regular season game left and if I win and/or the team below me loses, I'm in the playoffs. What's better is I'm getting hot the last few weeks thanks to the budding health and production of Andre Johnson and Marques Colston.
In my office league, I'm 8-4 and sitting in third, putting me in charge of my own destiny there as well. I'm 1/2 or 1 game ahead of four others but I've outscored them all over the course of the season, meaning I hold the tie breaker. If I win one of the last two, I'm in.
I have two other leagues on Yahoo. I intended to be competitive in one but I'm 4-8 with no shot at the playoffs. The other was simply to trot out my draft strategy and I'm high scorer in it. I'm in fourth place, though, so my luck has apparenlty all been spent in the auction league. I am tied with four other teams at 6-6 so I need to win my last two games to be sure, but I can probably sneakin with one win.
So, with one week left in the auction league and two in the other leagues, I have a decent shot to make the playoffs in 3 out of 4. Things could certainly be worse.
Auburn, however, is dead. Only an unlikely win against Alabama will make the season anything other than a total waste of a year. Sigh.
If there's one bright side to losing interest in fantasy football so early in the season, it's that I was able to watch the Falcons play football without worrying about who was making what stats. Remember just watching football for the love of the game? I'll enjoy it this year. Next year maybe I'll be back to thinking in terms of fantasy football again.
My fourth fantasy football draft happened shortly after my last post but events in my life kept me from posting it - one of which was that I wasn't really that excited about the draft. Then I went like 0-3 to start the year in that league. Combine that with my Auburn Tigers loading the FAIL train with turdulence and I really just lost interest in football for the first half of this season.
At my auction draft, the Bombers and I fought over several of the same players and he won most of the battles. I got Peyton Manning and Steven Jackson as consolation prizes. At the time, they were excellent values. In retrospect at least Manning still is.
Unlike last year, when I was the consensus 'worst team' in the league (I won, suckas!) this year some were saying things like 'How'd he get that roster. Wow. That's strong.' I was ill at ease, though, because I lost most of my targeted players and I didn't particularly want to spend 40% of my bidding cap on Manning and Jackson. It left me lacking depth and that turned out to hurt.
(BTW, I wanted and lost Thomas Jones, Jay Cutler, Matt Schaub, Brandon Marshall, Tony Sheffler, Michael Turner, Jericho Cotchery and Ryan Longwell - most of which turned out to be great this year, though I missed on my hopes for the Texans. But after blowing my budget on Manning and Jackson, who were 'too good of a value to pass up', I just didn't have the $$ to get everyone I wanted.)
From 0-3 to 1-5 in the auction league, things looked bleak. Fortunately it turns out I was only mostly dead.
I've crawled up to 6-6 and until this week I was low scorer, so I got my fair share of luck to scrape up a couple of those wins, no doubt. We have one regular season game left and if I win and/or the team below me loses, I'm in the playoffs. What's better is I'm getting hot the last few weeks thanks to the budding health and production of Andre Johnson and Marques Colston.
In my office league, I'm 8-4 and sitting in third, putting me in charge of my own destiny there as well. I'm 1/2 or 1 game ahead of four others but I've outscored them all over the course of the season, meaning I hold the tie breaker. If I win one of the last two, I'm in.
I have two other leagues on Yahoo. I intended to be competitive in one but I'm 4-8 with no shot at the playoffs. The other was simply to trot out my draft strategy and I'm high scorer in it. I'm in fourth place, though, so my luck has apparenlty all been spent in the auction league. I am tied with four other teams at 6-6 so I need to win my last two games to be sure, but I can probably sneakin with one win.
So, with one week left in the auction league and two in the other leagues, I have a decent shot to make the playoffs in 3 out of 4. Things could certainly be worse.
Auburn, however, is dead. Only an unlikely win against Alabama will make the season anything other than a total waste of a year. Sigh.
If there's one bright side to losing interest in fantasy football so early in the season, it's that I was able to watch the Falcons play football without worrying about who was making what stats. Remember just watching football for the love of the game? I'll enjoy it this year. Next year maybe I'll be back to thinking in terms of fantasy football again.
Blogged with the Flock Browser
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Fantasy Draft No. 3 Recap
Yeah, I know I said that two maybe three teams was about all I could handle and with my auction draft left, this means I’ll have at least four. Well, I wanted a practice draft or two before this one, so things happened, okay?
I drafted second of 12 teams and this is the work league.
By round:
Adrian Peterson – not much suspense picking second, is there?
Marques Colston – I gambled that McGahee would be left for me at 3.2 because the geezurs, who had LT, needed top WRs.
Willis McGahee – The geezurs did indeed grab a top WR, taking Fitzgerald, but they also took Laurence Maroney, probably the first really big reach of the draft. Even if he’s sold on Maroney, the NE back could have been had rounds later.
Santonio Holmes – I have him ranked highly, but his ultimate value depends on whether the Steelers continue passing this year.
Jerricho Cotchery – My evil plan is coming to fruition. I was high on Cotchery as an overlooked WR3 last year and was right. To get him as WR3 now that the gunslinging Favre is in town is a bargain.
Chris Cooley – Tight ends started disappearing at the top of round 4, so I’m very happy to get one of the elite picks at the position in the bottom of the sixth.
Jay Cutler – I know this sounds crazy, but I was considering taking McNabb. However, I would have had to have done so in the fifth, which I knew ahead of time based on my ADP charts, and I didn’t like what that left me with as WR3. This league starts three WRs. Cutler was 10th last year and should improve. This may be my steal of the draft.
Santana Moss – I’ve since cooled on the ‘Skins considering their last two pre-season games were flops, but if they repeat the success of the first two, Moss will be a great guy to plug in.
Chris Johnson – I’ve only got two RBs, so now begins the panic drafting of upside RBs as I try to catch lightning in a bottle. Here’s hoping LenDale eats too much to run anymore.
Patrick Crayton – when I start 3 WRs, I like to have two on the bench. As WR2, his upside is limited, but he will be playing opposite TO and should get his stats. This is a relative steal and there’ll be a few teams wishing he was in their starting lineup.
Jon Kitna – At first I thought the end of the Martz era spelled doom for the career second tier QB, but I’m starting to change my mind due to his pre-season success. This is less than a sure-thing, though, leaving me hoping one of my QBs works out.
Maurice Morris – My second grasp at hope in the RB department. Morris has outperformed Julius Jones, as I blogged he might. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Morris put Jones on the bench before the season is over.
Seattle – I needed a defense. They’ll work. Unlike last year, I don’t have a real good feeling about particular teams – mostly because I didn’t get to watch the preseason games.
Steve Slaton – grasping attempt #3. I later dropped Slaton to pick up Jonathan Stewart, who was drafted in the 10th and then dropped by that player in a waiver wire move. With Stewart, Morris and Johnson on my bench, hopefully one of three will pan out.
Ryan Longwell – I think Minnesota will improve this year and Longwell wasn’t too shabby last year. He has a shot to be the best kicker in fantasy football, I picked him in the last round of our draft. Sweet.
In sum, this draft happened at the top pretty much like my ADP charts predicted. As soon as I learned I had the second pick, I planned my moves and got the first six players I thought I would. At round 5, I considered McNabb, but even before the draft I knew drafting him there would cost me my targeted WR3 – Cotchery.
All in all, it was a good draft, yet I find myself unable to get excited about it for some reason. I think it’s because even though I got a lot of players I targetted, I didn’t end up with a lot of sure bets.
Lesson learned: When playing with co-workers, some of whom even let the site auto-draft for them, the ADP charts are pretty good predictors. They’re not perfect, of course, and I did have to take a few target players a round early because I drafted second, meaning if I passed on a player at times I’d miss almost two whole rounds. But, hey, they’re averages, not prophecy.
I drafted second of 12 teams and this is the work league.
By round:
Adrian Peterson – not much suspense picking second, is there?
Marques Colston – I gambled that McGahee would be left for me at 3.2 because the geezurs, who had LT, needed top WRs.
Willis McGahee – The geezurs did indeed grab a top WR, taking Fitzgerald, but they also took Laurence Maroney, probably the first really big reach of the draft. Even if he’s sold on Maroney, the NE back could have been had rounds later.
Santonio Holmes – I have him ranked highly, but his ultimate value depends on whether the Steelers continue passing this year.
Jerricho Cotchery – My evil plan is coming to fruition. I was high on Cotchery as an overlooked WR3 last year and was right. To get him as WR3 now that the gunslinging Favre is in town is a bargain.
Chris Cooley – Tight ends started disappearing at the top of round 4, so I’m very happy to get one of the elite picks at the position in the bottom of the sixth.
Jay Cutler – I know this sounds crazy, but I was considering taking McNabb. However, I would have had to have done so in the fifth, which I knew ahead of time based on my ADP charts, and I didn’t like what that left me with as WR3. This league starts three WRs. Cutler was 10th last year and should improve. This may be my steal of the draft.
Santana Moss – I’ve since cooled on the ‘Skins considering their last two pre-season games were flops, but if they repeat the success of the first two, Moss will be a great guy to plug in.
Chris Johnson – I’ve only got two RBs, so now begins the panic drafting of upside RBs as I try to catch lightning in a bottle. Here’s hoping LenDale eats too much to run anymore.
Patrick Crayton – when I start 3 WRs, I like to have two on the bench. As WR2, his upside is limited, but he will be playing opposite TO and should get his stats. This is a relative steal and there’ll be a few teams wishing he was in their starting lineup.
Jon Kitna – At first I thought the end of the Martz era spelled doom for the career second tier QB, but I’m starting to change my mind due to his pre-season success. This is less than a sure-thing, though, leaving me hoping one of my QBs works out.
Maurice Morris – My second grasp at hope in the RB department. Morris has outperformed Julius Jones, as I blogged he might. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Morris put Jones on the bench before the season is over.
Seattle – I needed a defense. They’ll work. Unlike last year, I don’t have a real good feeling about particular teams – mostly because I didn’t get to watch the preseason games.
Steve Slaton – grasping attempt #3. I later dropped Slaton to pick up Jonathan Stewart, who was drafted in the 10th and then dropped by that player in a waiver wire move. With Stewart, Morris and Johnson on my bench, hopefully one of three will pan out.
Ryan Longwell – I think Minnesota will improve this year and Longwell wasn’t too shabby last year. He has a shot to be the best kicker in fantasy football, I picked him in the last round of our draft. Sweet.
In sum, this draft happened at the top pretty much like my ADP charts predicted. As soon as I learned I had the second pick, I planned my moves and got the first six players I thought I would. At round 5, I considered McNabb, but even before the draft I knew drafting him there would cost me my targeted WR3 – Cotchery.
All in all, it was a good draft, yet I find myself unable to get excited about it for some reason. I think it’s because even though I got a lot of players I targetted, I didn’t end up with a lot of sure bets.
Lesson learned: When playing with co-workers, some of whom even let the site auto-draft for them, the ADP charts are pretty good predictors. They’re not perfect, of course, and I did have to take a few target players a round early because I drafted second, meaning if I passed on a player at times I’d miss almost two whole rounds. But, hey, they’re averages, not prophecy.
Really? NO, Really?
Rudi Johnson says Tatum Bell took his luggage and that it was returned minus his cash, ID and credit cards? Seriously? Come on?
Surely a professional football player wouldn't be as simultaneously immature and stupid to pull this off. Would they?
Surely a professional football player wouldn't be as simultaneously immature and stupid to pull this off. Would they?
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
ADP movement - Content too new for magazines
I'm getting ready for the office draft tonight and reviewing my ADPs. The QBs continue to move up in value this year, as do some of the WRs. More kickers and defenses are moving into the bottom as the fantasy nation weeds out which of the RBs and WRs are less valuable than defenses and kickers.
Moving Up
Witness the Favre effect: Favre debuts in the middle of the seventh round. Thomas Jones has jumped from the top of the 5th to the middle of the fourth, Coles moves up a whole round the top of the 6th and Jericho Cotchery moves up a round and a half to late 5th.
I forget the exact number of spaces, but Manning is up to the top of the second. Romo is a few spaces behind him and Brees has gone from top of the third to middle of the second. Carson Palmer is now also in the middle to late third.
Ray Rice moves up four whole rounds from middle 14th to middle 10th.
Ted Ginn moves up almost two rounds to mid-late 11th.
Chris Perry debuts at top of round 12. Perry is 'officially' the starter in Cincy. We'll see. He's looked pretty good in spots.
Maurice Morris moves from late 15th to late 12th. Probably still a good deal.
Chargers have moved up to the bottom of the seventh. Maybe the Shawne Merriman news is too new to be reflected. This would make them the first D taken and I wouldn't go there.
My pimping for Steve Slaton is paying off as he debuts at late in the 13th.
Michael Turner continues to inch up and is now a bottom of the third guy. Honestly, the ATL passing game doesn't look too shabby. Turner might be a steal if he can take the whole season - something I assume he can do.
Calvin Johnson moves up a whole round to the late 4th.
Chris Johnson moves from bottom of the 10th to the bottom of the 8th.
Moving Down
The biggest losers include:
Others like Willis McGahee, who was a mid-second round pick a few weeks ago is now going in the top of the third. Steve Smith has also dropped to the middle of the third.
Brandon Marshall has dropped 9 spots to #47 overall, meaning if you can grab a good WR 3 to play the first two weeks, he's getting to be a steal.
And do you think the pre-season doesn't matter? Some of this movement is related to off-field issues, but much of it is on-field play. The nice thing is this sort of movement validates my opinions on many of these players.
Regarding McGahee, I guess Rice is doing well and some blogger opined that McGahee might actually be cut. Yet as others pointed out, the cap hit would be tremendous as he's early in a big contract. If they were going to cut him, it should have been last year. I'm not a capologist, I'm just repeating what I read. With the rise of Rice in camp, I'm a little concerned about McGahee, but I probably take him in the third if I have the chance.
One last note: VY is still being drafted in the 11th round. I'd rather have Tarvaris Jackson, who has fallen off the ADP list.
Moving Up
Witness the Favre effect: Favre debuts in the middle of the seventh round. Thomas Jones has jumped from the top of the 5th to the middle of the fourth, Coles moves up a whole round the top of the 6th and Jericho Cotchery moves up a round and a half to late 5th.
I forget the exact number of spaces, but Manning is up to the top of the second. Romo is a few spaces behind him and Brees has gone from top of the third to middle of the second. Carson Palmer is now also in the middle to late third.
Ray Rice moves up four whole rounds from middle 14th to middle 10th.
Ted Ginn moves up almost two rounds to mid-late 11th.
Chris Perry debuts at top of round 12. Perry is 'officially' the starter in Cincy. We'll see. He's looked pretty good in spots.
Maurice Morris moves from late 15th to late 12th. Probably still a good deal.
Chargers have moved up to the bottom of the seventh. Maybe the Shawne Merriman news is too new to be reflected. This would make them the first D taken and I wouldn't go there.
My pimping for Steve Slaton is paying off as he debuts at late in the 13th.
Michael Turner continues to inch up and is now a bottom of the third guy. Honestly, the ATL passing game doesn't look too shabby. Turner might be a steal if he can take the whole season - something I assume he can do.
Calvin Johnson moves up a whole round to the late 4th.
Chris Johnson moves from bottom of the 10th to the bottom of the 8th.
Moving Down
The biggest losers include:
- Bobby Engram drops from bottom 7th to top 12th. (Still too high.)
- Ronnie brown, who was a third round pick a few weeks ago and has plummeted to pick 50 - top of the fifth round in 12 team leagues;
- Julius Jones, a middle fifth to the middle sixth, and;
- Rudi Johnson, a middle fifth to end of the sixth.
- Kevin Curtis, middle of the seventh to top of the ninth
- Deuce McCalister, bottom 8th to middle 10th
- Ahman Green drops a round and a half the middle 10th
Others like Willis McGahee, who was a mid-second round pick a few weeks ago is now going in the top of the third. Steve Smith has also dropped to the middle of the third.
Brandon Marshall has dropped 9 spots to #47 overall, meaning if you can grab a good WR 3 to play the first two weeks, he's getting to be a steal.
And do you think the pre-season doesn't matter? Some of this movement is related to off-field issues, but much of it is on-field play. The nice thing is this sort of movement validates my opinions on many of these players.
Regarding McGahee, I guess Rice is doing well and some blogger opined that McGahee might actually be cut. Yet as others pointed out, the cap hit would be tremendous as he's early in a big contract. If they were going to cut him, it should have been last year. I'm not a capologist, I'm just repeating what I read. With the rise of Rice in camp, I'm a little concerned about McGahee, but I probably take him in the third if I have the chance.
One last note: VY is still being drafted in the 11th round. I'd rather have Tarvaris Jackson, who has fallen off the ADP list.
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Monday, August 18, 2008
Saints WR2 News
Here's an analysis from Rotoworld.com:
Meachem started the preseason opener in place of Marques Colston and went off, grabbing four balls for 129 yards, including a diving 49-yard bomb and a 60-yard catch and run for a score that involved three broken tackles. The latter play in particular proved Meachem is 100% recovered from the lingering effects of knee surgery that washed out his rookie season. He played behind Devery Henderson in New Orleans' second exhibition and caught only one ball for a gain of 11, but the Saints appear to be clearing a path for Meachem to start. According to their latest depth chart, Meachem is on the same side as Henderson and incumbent David Patten has been moved behind Colston. Henderson is squarely on the roster bubble and battled a bad hamstring all summer. The only reason he's ahead of Meachem now is because of experience. The Saints' third preseason game will be telling, but Meachem looks headed for a first-string role by Week 1.
I have already drafted Patten in one league. But then someone in that same league has dropped Meacham. Bryant Johnson may also have been dropped in that league. I think I'll go drop Patten and see who's left on the wire.
Meachem started the preseason opener in place of Marques Colston and went off, grabbing four balls for 129 yards, including a diving 49-yard bomb and a 60-yard catch and run for a score that involved three broken tackles. The latter play in particular proved Meachem is 100% recovered from the lingering effects of knee surgery that washed out his rookie season. He played behind Devery Henderson in New Orleans' second exhibition and caught only one ball for a gain of 11, but the Saints appear to be clearing a path for Meachem to start. According to their latest depth chart, Meachem is on the same side as Henderson and incumbent David Patten has been moved behind Colston. Henderson is squarely on the roster bubble and battled a bad hamstring all summer. The only reason he's ahead of Meachem now is because of experience. The Saints' third preseason game will be telling, but Meachem looks headed for a first-string role by Week 1.
I have already drafted Patten in one league. But then someone in that same league has dropped Meacham. Bryant Johnson may also have been dropped in that league. I think I'll go drop Patten and see who's left on the wire.
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Friday, August 15, 2008
Fantasy Draft Number 2 Recap
This was a private league on Yahoo with, more or less, standard Yahoo rosters and scoring. I limited members to those with fantasy trophies in their Yahoo profile. It includes 12 teams and I picked third.
Adrian Peterson - Well. Surprise, surprise, surprise. Tom Brady went second, saving me from deciding between Steven Jackson or Brian Westbrook. AP is overrated in so much as he is not on LT's level. He remains, however, very explosive and I have to balance out my other picks to account for bad weeks and the injury possibility.
Willis McGahee - Awesome. I have McGahee will within my top 10 and I got him at the bottom of the second. I went stud-RB, but it was only because McGahee was still here. Would also have taken Ryan Grant here, who went the pick before.
Chad Johnson - Ocho Cinco is dropping too far in value this year. I'm pleased to get him in the third, though I probably would have taken Colston, who went the pick before.
By this point in the draft, it's obvious my peers are not sticking to the standard script. Several players have been selected higher than my ADP charts predicted, which I noticed of course because I was hoping to get them a little later. This continues throughout the draft. In just the first round this happened:
1-2 Tom Brady
1-6 Peyton Manning
1-7 Randy Moss
1-8 Tony Romo
1-9 Joseph Addai (I think he's overrated, but Addai is typically a top 5 or 6 pick, but with three QBs and a WR in the top 8, this happens.)
Drew Brees, Wes Welker and Jamal Lewis all, surprisingly, went in the second round, dropping Andre Johnson to a more plausible 2-12.
In the third:
3-1 Derek Anderson
3-5 Anquan Boldin
3-7 Ben Roethlisberger
3-8 Willie Parker
3-12 Donovan McNabb
Back to my picks, resuming with the bottom of the fourth round...
Chris Cooley - No lie, I had about 4 people staged to pick, all of whom went this round before my pick, including Santonio Holmes, Plax, Greg Jennings and Torry Holt. I really, really wanted my second of three starting WRs here, but I wasn't going to reach for a lower tier when there were still plenty of them left. After much heartache and indecision, I pulled the trigger on a 'stud' TE.
Lee Evans - By this part in the draft, I'm convinced this team is doomed. Evans is not a player I'm targeting, but he was by far the WR with the highest projections left on my list, the 'best' QBs are gone and it's way too early to grab a defense.
Santana Moss - Moss is a player I'm targeting. He's not as large as I'd like, but I have high hopes for the 'Skins offense this year.
Both Cotchery and Coles went this round. I was also thinking about their upside given the fact Favre is in NYJ green now. Be aware that astute fantasy footballers are thinking round 6 for these two when a week ago, they were round 7 picks.
Matt Schaub - Normally I wouldn't take Schaub as my QB1, but given my weakness at WR, I wanted a high upside player. There are plenty of second tier QBs left and I am confident I can grab one later. This pick cost me Thomas Jones, who went 7-8.
Rashard Mendenhall - I really wanted Thomas Jones here. I didn't expect him to fall this far at the start of the draft, but considering he was still around in 7, I was hoping the RB position had been considered played out. Mendenhall is a rookie and will most likely disappoint, but there is a good chance he gets the goal line looks in Pittsburgh.
David Garrard - I'm still rolling the dice. He has new WRs to throw to and I expect a big year, but he just doesn't have a fantasy stud year under his belt yet. I could have gone with Eli for the sure thing.
Jerry Porter - I'm pretty happy with this pick. I don't expect Porter to set the world on fire, but exceeding 1000 and 6 is possible. That is if Garrard lives up to the promise.
Owen Daniels - I'm pretty confident that Cooley will be fine, but I'm also high on the Texans this year. Daniels had almost 800 yards receiving last year but just three TDs. If the offense is a little more prolific, he could near 1000 yards. TDs will come, most likely.
Mason Crosby - I needed a kicker. He'll work.
Steve Slaton - There's nothing left by defenses and lottery tickets. Given that I've missed Thomas Jones, Drew Brees and about 6 WRs I was targeting, I wanted to roll the dice on this RB. A lot my players have late bye weeks. Ahman Green is already injured. All that stands between Slaton and stardom is two old, injury prone, mediocre running backs.
David Patten - He got 800 and 3 last year. As with Owen Daniels, I'm hoping Patten is the beneficiary of an improving, high octane offense. If not, he's easy to cut. Even 800 and 3 is a good deal for a 14th round WR. Robert Meacham, drafted in the first round last year, is being drafted higher, but has never caught a regular season pass. Patten starts the year as the #2 in New Orleans and the may not give up the job.
Green Bay - For picking a defense in the last round, this isn't too shabby.
In sum, I wasn't too thrilled with this team right after the draft. It lacks most of the players I've targeted as having a level of certainty plus a measure of upside and substitutes a lot of players that are more upside than certainty. I'll be good at TE and good, if shallow at RB. I'm okay if unspectacular at WR, defense and kicker. QB is a pure crap shoot and the success of this roster probably rests on whether Schaub and/or Garrard blossom to top tier QBs. Plus, after looking at the rest of the league, there's probably only one or two teams I'd swap with.
Adrian Peterson - Well. Surprise, surprise, surprise. Tom Brady went second, saving me from deciding between Steven Jackson or Brian Westbrook. AP is overrated in so much as he is not on LT's level. He remains, however, very explosive and I have to balance out my other picks to account for bad weeks and the injury possibility.
Willis McGahee - Awesome. I have McGahee will within my top 10 and I got him at the bottom of the second. I went stud-RB, but it was only because McGahee was still here. Would also have taken Ryan Grant here, who went the pick before.
Chad Johnson - Ocho Cinco is dropping too far in value this year. I'm pleased to get him in the third, though I probably would have taken Colston, who went the pick before.
By this point in the draft, it's obvious my peers are not sticking to the standard script. Several players have been selected higher than my ADP charts predicted, which I noticed of course because I was hoping to get them a little later. This continues throughout the draft. In just the first round this happened:
1-2 Tom Brady
1-6 Peyton Manning
1-7 Randy Moss
1-8 Tony Romo
1-9 Joseph Addai (I think he's overrated, but Addai is typically a top 5 or 6 pick, but with three QBs and a WR in the top 8, this happens.)
Drew Brees, Wes Welker and Jamal Lewis all, surprisingly, went in the second round, dropping Andre Johnson to a more plausible 2-12.
In the third:
3-1 Derek Anderson
3-5 Anquan Boldin
3-7 Ben Roethlisberger
3-8 Willie Parker
3-12 Donovan McNabb
Back to my picks, resuming with the bottom of the fourth round...
Chris Cooley - No lie, I had about 4 people staged to pick, all of whom went this round before my pick, including Santonio Holmes, Plax, Greg Jennings and Torry Holt. I really, really wanted my second of three starting WRs here, but I wasn't going to reach for a lower tier when there were still plenty of them left. After much heartache and indecision, I pulled the trigger on a 'stud' TE.
Lee Evans - By this part in the draft, I'm convinced this team is doomed. Evans is not a player I'm targeting, but he was by far the WR with the highest projections left on my list, the 'best' QBs are gone and it's way too early to grab a defense.
Santana Moss - Moss is a player I'm targeting. He's not as large as I'd like, but I have high hopes for the 'Skins offense this year.
Both Cotchery and Coles went this round. I was also thinking about their upside given the fact Favre is in NYJ green now. Be aware that astute fantasy footballers are thinking round 6 for these two when a week ago, they were round 7 picks.
Matt Schaub - Normally I wouldn't take Schaub as my QB1, but given my weakness at WR, I wanted a high upside player. There are plenty of second tier QBs left and I am confident I can grab one later. This pick cost me Thomas Jones, who went 7-8.
Rashard Mendenhall - I really wanted Thomas Jones here. I didn't expect him to fall this far at the start of the draft, but considering he was still around in 7, I was hoping the RB position had been considered played out. Mendenhall is a rookie and will most likely disappoint, but there is a good chance he gets the goal line looks in Pittsburgh.
David Garrard - I'm still rolling the dice. He has new WRs to throw to and I expect a big year, but he just doesn't have a fantasy stud year under his belt yet. I could have gone with Eli for the sure thing.
Jerry Porter - I'm pretty happy with this pick. I don't expect Porter to set the world on fire, but exceeding 1000 and 6 is possible. That is if Garrard lives up to the promise.
Owen Daniels - I'm pretty confident that Cooley will be fine, but I'm also high on the Texans this year. Daniels had almost 800 yards receiving last year but just three TDs. If the offense is a little more prolific, he could near 1000 yards. TDs will come, most likely.
Mason Crosby - I needed a kicker. He'll work.
Steve Slaton - There's nothing left by defenses and lottery tickets. Given that I've missed Thomas Jones, Drew Brees and about 6 WRs I was targeting, I wanted to roll the dice on this RB. A lot my players have late bye weeks. Ahman Green is already injured. All that stands between Slaton and stardom is two old, injury prone, mediocre running backs.
David Patten - He got 800 and 3 last year. As with Owen Daniels, I'm hoping Patten is the beneficiary of an improving, high octane offense. If not, he's easy to cut. Even 800 and 3 is a good deal for a 14th round WR. Robert Meacham, drafted in the first round last year, is being drafted higher, but has never caught a regular season pass. Patten starts the year as the #2 in New Orleans and the may not give up the job.
Green Bay - For picking a defense in the last round, this isn't too shabby.
In sum, I wasn't too thrilled with this team right after the draft. It lacks most of the players I've targeted as having a level of certainty plus a measure of upside and substitutes a lot of players that are more upside than certainty. I'll be good at TE and good, if shallow at RB. I'm okay if unspectacular at WR, defense and kicker. QB is a pure crap shoot and the success of this roster probably rests on whether Schaub and/or Garrard blossom to top tier QBs. Plus, after looking at the rest of the league, there's probably only one or two teams I'd swap with.
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Sunday, August 10, 2008
Falcons Fantasy Players Not Too Shabby
Roddy White - Five catches for 47 yards and a TD.
Michael Turner - 5 carries for 22 yards. Rotoworld was all negative on those numbers. "Turner didn't have much room to work with, but he didn't create anything either." Maybe I'm missing something, but I think 4.4 YPC is a good average for a running back. It's just five carries, though.
Matt Ryan - 9 of 15 for 113 and a TD. Ryan was the best QB on the roster Saturday.
Michael Turner - 5 carries for 22 yards. Rotoworld was all negative on those numbers. "Turner didn't have much room to work with, but he didn't create anything either." Maybe I'm missing something, but I think 4.4 YPC is a good average for a running back. It's just five carries, though.
Matt Ryan - 9 of 15 for 113 and a TD. Ryan was the best QB on the roster Saturday.
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Patriots Lose Another DB
Safety/Linebacker Tank Williams has been lost for the season with a knee injury.
It's time to bail on the Patriots defense. They were decimated in free agency. This can't help.
It's time to bail on the Patriots defense. They were decimated in free agency. This can't help.
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Maurice Morris Outplays Jones
Ripped from Rotoworld:
Maurice Morris played with the starting offense in Seattle's preseason opener, running for 62 yards on six carries and adding a one-yard catch. Julius Jones (4-15, 1-3) was on the No. 2 offense and struggled like he was back in Dallas. He got stuffed on a third-and-one before the end of the half, marched off pouting, and ripped his helmet off on the side. Jones seemed to lack confidence late in his Cowboys career and it may still be an issue. Aug. 8 - 10:49 pm et
I told you this might happen...
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Friday, August 8, 2008
Just So Everyone Knows
I understand I am being discussed in the Bombers' 'other' auction league - the one he spends all off season mocking 'cause he owns their butts and wins or places every stinking year.
Someone can't make the draft and it was suggested I fill in for them. (I think I was referred to as 'that guy with the laptop'.) In an apparent bid to drive down my fee, someone (probably the Bombers) mentioned that the #1 WR I drafted for the Bombers when I filled in for him in '05 was Santana Moss.
Moss finished that year with 790 and was coming off a 1500 yard year. Drafting him as a #1 was, at the time, defendable. But that's not the point.
I didn't rank him ninth. The Bombers did.
"Why did you draft Moss?" asked the Bombers.
"You put him in your top 10," I said.
"Well I had to put someone in it."
[sarcasm] Brilliant response, Bombers. [/sarcasm]
I only take the blame when I'm wrong or when my wife says I'm wrong. Neither applies here.
For future reference, my fee is negotiable, but should include lodging, 58.5 cents per mile and a per diem of $50 plus a 25% share of any winnings. This is a very reasonable fee. And I won't even charge you for the paperwork, like some shyster lawyer might.
And if anyone in that league ever wants to see the Bombers face some competition other than the Destroyers, just let me know. He's 0-2 in our auction league.
Someone can't make the draft and it was suggested I fill in for them. (I think I was referred to as 'that guy with the laptop'.) In an apparent bid to drive down my fee, someone (probably the Bombers) mentioned that the #1 WR I drafted for the Bombers when I filled in for him in '05 was Santana Moss.
Moss finished that year with 790 and was coming off a 1500 yard year. Drafting him as a #1 was, at the time, defendable. But that's not the point.
I didn't rank him ninth. The Bombers did.
"Why did you draft Moss?" asked the Bombers.
"You put him in your top 10," I said.
"Well I had to put someone in it."
[sarcasm] Brilliant response, Bombers. [/sarcasm]
I only take the blame when I'm wrong or when my wife says I'm wrong. Neither applies here.
For future reference, my fee is negotiable, but should include lodging, 58.5 cents per mile and a per diem of $50 plus a 25% share of any winnings. This is a very reasonable fee. And I won't even charge you for the paperwork, like some shyster lawyer might.
And if anyone in that league ever wants to see the Bombers face some competition other than the Destroyers, just let me know. He's 0-2 in our auction league.
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Thursday, August 7, 2008
Downgrade Matt Forte
First round draft pick, tackle Chris Williams of the Chicago Bears, has had surgery on a herniated disk and is out indefinitely. See here.
I was starting to cool on Forte, but this doesn't help.
I was starting to cool on Forte, but this doesn't help.
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Torian Out 3 Months
Fifth round draft pick and potential Mike Shanahan wunderkind Ryan Torian broke an elbow and will miss three months, per the AP.
Shanahan refused to answer if the loss will hurt the club, but fellow RB Andre Hall said the team had a short yardage package just for Torian, confirming what all of us suspected, Selvin Young was not going to be a 2000 yard back.
Now, however...
Mike Shanahan will still find a way to skewer your hopes and dreams of landing the next Terrell Davis by giving Hall or Anthony Aldridge half the carries this year. Really, if you're going to draft Torian, you might as well take Aldridge. One's as good a guess as the other.
I can't wait for Shanahan to retire.
Shanahan refused to answer if the loss will hurt the club, but fellow RB Andre Hall said the team had a short yardage package just for Torian, confirming what all of us suspected, Selvin Young was not going to be a 2000 yard back.
Now, however...
Mike Shanahan will still find a way to skewer your hopes and dreams of landing the next Terrell Davis by giving Hall or Anthony Aldridge half the carries this year. Really, if you're going to draft Torian, you might as well take Aldridge. One's as good a guess as the other.
I can't wait for Shanahan to retire.
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Favre A Jet
Hmm... time to re-evaluate Cotchery and Coles. And Thomas Jones looks all that much better now.
Gonna be funny watching so many Jets games this year, though. Unless the NFL network decides to keep all the Jets games.
Favre, though, has made a butt of himself. I like his enthusiasm, but this whole I retire, I want back, I'll stay retired, no I really want back, reinstate me and give me my release, I'm showing up at your training camp, I'm not training stuff, to me, was childish. Mostly on his part. I totally understand the team's point - Brett had become larger than the Packers and they had to have been tired of living at his whims each off-season.
Brett has basically tried to influence their drafts and free agent pickups for years, threating to retire if the team didn't improve at one position or another. I kinda understand that, but this whole offseason business just makes him look a self-centered, childish brat.
Brat Favre. Sigh. Just play football, dude. I'll forgive you in a few years if you finish with class.
Gonna be funny watching so many Jets games this year, though. Unless the NFL network decides to keep all the Jets games.
Favre, though, has made a butt of himself. I like his enthusiasm, but this whole I retire, I want back, I'll stay retired, no I really want back, reinstate me and give me my release, I'm showing up at your training camp, I'm not training stuff, to me, was childish. Mostly on his part. I totally understand the team's point - Brett had become larger than the Packers and they had to have been tired of living at his whims each off-season.
Brett has basically tried to influence their drafts and free agent pickups for years, threating to retire if the team didn't improve at one position or another. I kinda understand that, but this whole offseason business just makes him look a self-centered, childish brat.
Brat Favre. Sigh. Just play football, dude. I'll forgive you in a few years if you finish with class.
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Wednesday, August 6, 2008
It's Official, Marshall Suspended
Brandon Marshall is suspended three games for arrests deemed to be in violation of the NFL's conduct policy. He'll miss three games, which could be reduced to two with counseling and 'other conditions.' He can still practice and take part in the pre-season, though.
Assuming he keeps himself out of trouble, Marshall is still worth taking as your low-end WR1. Prior to the suspension, I had him projected to get more yards than Braylon Edwards. I'm a little crazy, though.
Assuming he keeps himself out of trouble, Marshall is still worth taking as your low-end WR1. Prior to the suspension, I had him projected to get more yards than Braylon Edwards. I'm a little crazy, though.
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Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Draft Observations
I'm still second guessing taking Santana Moss over Jeremy Shockey in the 7th. We'll just have to see.
But I'm going over the draft results and other than that, the draft went pretty well as there's no one after one of my picks that I would rather have had with the exception of Shockey. Maybe.
But look at the 10th round...
10.1 Rashard Mendenhall
10.3 Willie Parker
10.6 LenDale White
10.9 Kevin Smith
10.10 Rudi Johnson
My. My. My. It's the hope and a prayer running back round and the rookie Mendenhall went before Parker. Rudi Johnson is probably the best hope here. Sure he's another year older and just might be over the hill, but it's not like he's afraid to hit the hole. As long as the Bengals give him 20 carries a game, he'll produce.
Bobby Engram went 11.8. Looks like this group of managers isn't sold on him as a top WR. His ADP is 7.12.
But I'm going over the draft results and other than that, the draft went pretty well as there's no one after one of my picks that I would rather have had with the exception of Shockey. Maybe.
But look at the 10th round...
10.1 Rashard Mendenhall
10.3 Willie Parker
10.6 LenDale White
10.9 Kevin Smith
10.10 Rudi Johnson
My. My. My. It's the hope and a prayer running back round and the rookie Mendenhall went before Parker. Rudi Johnson is probably the best hope here. Sure he's another year older and just might be over the hill, but it's not like he's afraid to hit the hole. As long as the Bengals give him 20 carries a game, he'll produce.
Bobby Engram went 11.8. Looks like this group of managers isn't sold on him as a top WR. His ADP is 7.12.
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Sunday, August 3, 2008
First Draft Recap
In draft order:
Steven Jackson - He got over 1200 all purpose yards last year basically without any help from a line or a passing game. Here's hoping the line stays healthy this year.
Reggie Wayne - O joy, O joy! I actually project Andre Johnson, who was still available, to do better this year, but I know Wayne is going to be a top 5 WR barring injury.
Drew Brees - Don't you love it when a plan comes together? He is a cinch for over 4000 yards and with Shockey in town I think this offense is set to explode. Here's hoping the passing TDs do too.
Earnest Graham - I wasn't targeting Graham, but I've got him at the top of my third tier, making him my best option for RB2. Here's hoping for a repeat of last year's success.
Greg Jennings - Another player I wasn't targeting. I have him one slotted higher on my projections than Santonio Holmes, but I really wanted Holmes here for his upside. Alas, Holmes went the pick before and is the first player I would consider 'lost' that I thought I could get.
Thomas Jones - I figured he'd be long gone by now. I almost took him last round. All three of my top RBs have questions, but hopefully two of them end up being decent.
Santana Moss - I did have a WR or two with higher projections, but it's time to start looking for upside. I had planned to take Shockey here, but gambled the Saints TE would last another round to secure my third starting WR. (Yahoo default leagues start three...)
Jonathan Stewart - I wasn't expecting to take an RB here, but I lost Shockey and had to look at the available players, leading me to this gem. Stewart's ADP is in the fifth round. I was pleased to find him. Here's hoping for 'the next' Stephen Davis.
Patrick Crayton - Here's a player I may target late in future drafts. Terry Glenn's gone and I don't think fantasy nation got the word. On the other hand, I probably should have taken Nate Burleson. I waffled. We'll see if I picked right.
Jerry Porter - With three starting WRs and especially with Crayton sharing a bye week with Santana Moss sharing a bye week, I felt it good to grab a fifth WR. Normally I might like to wait to see who emerges on the waiver wire, but Porter may be the best WR Garrard has ever had. I'm hoping those two recreate the Brady to Moss magic, albeit on a less explosive level.
Well, the plan was to stick with 6 of the first 7 as RBs and WRs, but when I lost Shockey, I managed to go 9 of the first 10. Porter was also a calculated gamble pick. I wanted a TE by now, but with three people (and six picks) between this and my next round, I hoped a decent TE gamble would still be available. Taking Porter here also means there's no roster spot for Bryant Johnson, who could have been had in round 12.
Tony Schefler - I considered, Schefler, Owen Daniels and Alge Crumpler for this slot. I just missed Daniels, but I wanted Schefler more anyway. Honestly, the sure thing TEs are long gone, but if you don't get Witten or Gates, you might as well wait. I think Shockey will have a great season, but I wasn't going to reach for a TE after losing him.
Matt Schaub - Shazam. I'd almost be willing to start Schaub as he projects to over 4000 yards and the mid-20s in TDs. I'm thrilled to have him as a QB2. Unfortunately, he faces Minnesota the week Drew Brees is on bye. The Vikes haven't been a great passing defense. They've been an awful one, but with new DE Jared Allen and three DBs via free agency, the purple clad ones could be dominant this year.
Seattle - Why not? Every 'sure thing' was gone and the Seahawks face Brody Croyle and Jarmarcus Russel twice each. I was actually hoping for the Packers here.
Alge Crumpler - The best kickers are gone but I saw a good one buried in the ranked list, so Crumpler it was. If he returns to his pro-bowl form, not an impossibility, he may be a top TE.
Kris Brown - With the top-rated kickers long gone, I picked one from an offense I expect to do well this year. That strategy got me Gostkowski on more than one team last year. When picking kickers, think of the offense first and not who the kicker actually is. Jason Elam is a prime example of this. He's on the Falcons this year, hence not worth much.
Observations:
With Reggie Wayne and Drew Brees, I have two players that are proven difference makers on fantasy rosters. My RB corps needs to see players emerge or, in the case of Jackson and Graham, live up to their draft slot. My WR corps is also full of potential. As for TE, Kicker and D, with a little good luck, I'll hit on two of the three slots.
If I had passed on Brees in the third, I would have taken Chad Johnson there. Ocho Cinco is getting no love this year, but he's dropped too far. He's still a potential top 5 or so WR. I then would have taken Cutler in the 7th or 8th and hoped that either Cutler or Schaub lived up to their potential. But all in all, I'd rather have the 'sure' thing in Brees. Had I passed on Brees and aimed for Cutler, I don't think much else would have changed.
If I had taken Shockey instead of Moss, every pick after could have changed. It would have left me grasping at hope for a WR3, 4 and 5. As it is, I'm pretty happy with my WR corps and I think one my TEs will emerge. Still, missing Shockey cost me a better chance at having an impact player at TE.
Good draft, all in all.
Steven Jackson - He got over 1200 all purpose yards last year basically without any help from a line or a passing game. Here's hoping the line stays healthy this year.
Reggie Wayne - O joy, O joy! I actually project Andre Johnson, who was still available, to do better this year, but I know Wayne is going to be a top 5 WR barring injury.
Drew Brees - Don't you love it when a plan comes together? He is a cinch for over 4000 yards and with Shockey in town I think this offense is set to explode. Here's hoping the passing TDs do too.
Earnest Graham - I wasn't targeting Graham, but I've got him at the top of my third tier, making him my best option for RB2. Here's hoping for a repeat of last year's success.
Greg Jennings - Another player I wasn't targeting. I have him one slotted higher on my projections than Santonio Holmes, but I really wanted Holmes here for his upside. Alas, Holmes went the pick before and is the first player I would consider 'lost' that I thought I could get.
Thomas Jones - I figured he'd be long gone by now. I almost took him last round. All three of my top RBs have questions, but hopefully two of them end up being decent.
Santana Moss - I did have a WR or two with higher projections, but it's time to start looking for upside. I had planned to take Shockey here, but gambled the Saints TE would last another round to secure my third starting WR. (Yahoo default leagues start three...)
Jonathan Stewart - I wasn't expecting to take an RB here, but I lost Shockey and had to look at the available players, leading me to this gem. Stewart's ADP is in the fifth round. I was pleased to find him. Here's hoping for 'the next' Stephen Davis.
Patrick Crayton - Here's a player I may target late in future drafts. Terry Glenn's gone and I don't think fantasy nation got the word. On the other hand, I probably should have taken Nate Burleson. I waffled. We'll see if I picked right.
Jerry Porter - With three starting WRs and especially with Crayton sharing a bye week with Santana Moss sharing a bye week, I felt it good to grab a fifth WR. Normally I might like to wait to see who emerges on the waiver wire, but Porter may be the best WR Garrard has ever had. I'm hoping those two recreate the Brady to Moss magic, albeit on a less explosive level.
Well, the plan was to stick with 6 of the first 7 as RBs and WRs, but when I lost Shockey, I managed to go 9 of the first 10. Porter was also a calculated gamble pick. I wanted a TE by now, but with three people (and six picks) between this and my next round, I hoped a decent TE gamble would still be available. Taking Porter here also means there's no roster spot for Bryant Johnson, who could have been had in round 12.
Tony Schefler - I considered, Schefler, Owen Daniels and Alge Crumpler for this slot. I just missed Daniels, but I wanted Schefler more anyway. Honestly, the sure thing TEs are long gone, but if you don't get Witten or Gates, you might as well wait. I think Shockey will have a great season, but I wasn't going to reach for a TE after losing him.
Matt Schaub - Shazam. I'd almost be willing to start Schaub as he projects to over 4000 yards and the mid-20s in TDs. I'm thrilled to have him as a QB2. Unfortunately, he faces Minnesota the week Drew Brees is on bye. The Vikes haven't been a great passing defense. They've been an awful one, but with new DE Jared Allen and three DBs via free agency, the purple clad ones could be dominant this year.
Seattle - Why not? Every 'sure thing' was gone and the Seahawks face Brody Croyle and Jarmarcus Russel twice each. I was actually hoping for the Packers here.
Alge Crumpler - The best kickers are gone but I saw a good one buried in the ranked list, so Crumpler it was. If he returns to his pro-bowl form, not an impossibility, he may be a top TE.
Kris Brown - With the top-rated kickers long gone, I picked one from an offense I expect to do well this year. That strategy got me Gostkowski on more than one team last year. When picking kickers, think of the offense first and not who the kicker actually is. Jason Elam is a prime example of this. He's on the Falcons this year, hence not worth much.
Observations:
With Reggie Wayne and Drew Brees, I have two players that are proven difference makers on fantasy rosters. My RB corps needs to see players emerge or, in the case of Jackson and Graham, live up to their draft slot. My WR corps is also full of potential. As for TE, Kicker and D, with a little good luck, I'll hit on two of the three slots.
If I had passed on Brees in the third, I would have taken Chad Johnson there. Ocho Cinco is getting no love this year, but he's dropped too far. He's still a potential top 5 or so WR. I then would have taken Cutler in the 7th or 8th and hoped that either Cutler or Schaub lived up to their potential. But all in all, I'd rather have the 'sure' thing in Brees. Had I passed on Brees and aimed for Cutler, I don't think much else would have changed.
If I had taken Shockey instead of Moss, every pick after could have changed. It would have left me grasping at hope for a WR3, 4 and 5. As it is, I'm pretty happy with my WR corps and I think one my TEs will emerge. Still, missing Shockey cost me a better chance at having an impact player at TE.
Good draft, all in all.
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Here's What I Think Will Happen
First - I'll get Westbrook or Jackson. Not thrilling picks - no upside at that ranking.
Second - Andre Johnson is most likely, but I'd take Grant if he happens to fall this far. Maurice Jones Drew would make a good pick here, too.
Third - Drews Brees and Jamal Lewis should go just before my pick. I'd hope for Brees, then Lewis and settle for Chad Johnson, Tory Holt or Marques Colston.
Fourth and after - ???? I pick 9th in the fourth, so I will take Edge or Thomas Jones there if I still need my RB 2. Otherwise I'll hope for Santonio Holmes.
All bets are off for the fifth and later.
See you after the draft.
Second - Andre Johnson is most likely, but I'd take Grant if he happens to fall this far. Maurice Jones Drew would make a good pick here, too.
Third - Drews Brees and Jamal Lewis should go just before my pick. I'd hope for Brees, then Lewis and settle for Chad Johnson, Tory Holt or Marques Colston.
Fourth and after - ???? I pick 9th in the fourth, so I will take Edge or Thomas Jones there if I still need my RB 2. Otherwise I'll hope for Santonio Holmes.
All bets are off for the fifth and later.
See you after the draft.
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T Minus 25 minutes
It's still going to be my first draft of the season, so we'll see how many rough edges need sanding, but I have the genesis of a plan.
All the starting, non-rookie RBs are gone by the end of the fourth, top of the 5th, with Thomas Jones being the last of the running backs with an acceptable level of risk for an RB2. I must get two RBs in the first four rounds.
I am willing to spend a first rounder on Tom Brady or a third rounder on Drew Brees, but I might pass on Brady to take Clinton Portis if both are available for mid-late first round. That'll be gut check time. After Brady, my next QB target will be Cutler in the 7th.
By the end of the 7th, I hope to have a QB, three RBs and three WRs.
Why not take a top TE? Well, Shockey is going the top of the 8th and I hope to get him in the 8th. Otherwise, I'll just have to make due with some combination of Scheffler, Owen Daniels, Alge Crumpler (all 10th, top 11th round averages) and Kevin Boss - whose ADP makes him Mr. Irrelevant.
So in the late rounds, I'd like to grab Schaub, Garrard or Aaron Rodgers around the 10th and fall back to Jason Campbell late 11, early 12.
We'll just see what pans out for fliers on WR4 and RB4 selections.
For defenses, Chargers and Vikes are going in Round 8, which I might do if I miss Shockey. The boys in the 10th and the giants in the 11th both look good. The pack is available at the top of the 12th. After that, I'll just pick one in round 14 or 15.
I just got into the draft room and I am drafting fourth. Looks like I have to take a consensus top 4 pick, which will likely be westbrook or jackson. Both have high ceilings and, as I've blogged, concerns. They are, however, still in the top 4 of my rankings.
All the starting, non-rookie RBs are gone by the end of the fourth, top of the 5th, with Thomas Jones being the last of the running backs with an acceptable level of risk for an RB2. I must get two RBs in the first four rounds.
I am willing to spend a first rounder on Tom Brady or a third rounder on Drew Brees, but I might pass on Brady to take Clinton Portis if both are available for mid-late first round. That'll be gut check time. After Brady, my next QB target will be Cutler in the 7th.
By the end of the 7th, I hope to have a QB, three RBs and three WRs.
Why not take a top TE? Well, Shockey is going the top of the 8th and I hope to get him in the 8th. Otherwise, I'll just have to make due with some combination of Scheffler, Owen Daniels, Alge Crumpler (all 10th, top 11th round averages) and Kevin Boss - whose ADP makes him Mr. Irrelevant.
So in the late rounds, I'd like to grab Schaub, Garrard or Aaron Rodgers around the 10th and fall back to Jason Campbell late 11, early 12.
We'll just see what pans out for fliers on WR4 and RB4 selections.
For defenses, Chargers and Vikes are going in Round 8, which I might do if I miss Shockey. The boys in the 10th and the giants in the 11th both look good. The pack is available at the top of the 12th. After that, I'll just pick one in round 14 or 15.
I just got into the draft room and I am drafting fourth. Looks like I have to take a consensus top 4 pick, which will likely be westbrook or jackson. Both have high ceilings and, as I've blogged, concerns. They are, however, still in the top 4 of my rankings.
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Steve Smith Suspended
Steve Smith decided it would be a good idea to punch a teammate yesterday, but he was wrong.
Normally teammates tussle on the field, in helmets at least, following a scrimmage play. This is considered competitive spirit. To an extent, it's both expected and encouraged. If no one ever gets upset, then no one cares, after all.
But this happened on the sideline, without helmets and apparently well after any play, during a time when veterans were getting a break. This is called poor impulse control and it is discouraged. Steve Smith, I read yesterday, has had problems with his temper before that led to a suspension and anger management classes.
Now he is suspended two more games this year.
More importantly, reading between the lines, it seems almost as if the team is rallying around the assaulted player, Ken Lucas, who suffered a broken nose to point of ostracizing Smith. In one article yesterday, coach Fox was telling his players not to retaliate against Smith and in an article this morning, I read that the team mobbed Lucas to welcome him back to practice today.
Adjust your rankings accordingly.
Normally teammates tussle on the field, in helmets at least, following a scrimmage play. This is considered competitive spirit. To an extent, it's both expected and encouraged. If no one ever gets upset, then no one cares, after all.
But this happened on the sideline, without helmets and apparently well after any play, during a time when veterans were getting a break. This is called poor impulse control and it is discouraged. Steve Smith, I read yesterday, has had problems with his temper before that led to a suspension and anger management classes.
Now he is suspended two more games this year.
More importantly, reading between the lines, it seems almost as if the team is rallying around the assaulted player, Ken Lucas, who suffered a broken nose to point of ostracizing Smith. In one article yesterday, coach Fox was telling his players not to retaliate against Smith and in an article this morning, I read that the team mobbed Lucas to welcome him back to practice today.
Adjust your rankings accordingly.
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Saturday, August 2, 2008
Let's Get It On
Tomorrow is the big day.
It’s not a wedding, a college entrance exam or the last final exam of the semester. Those things are behind me. It’s not even game day for me or one of the teams I root for. It’s not even the first pre-season game. Nope. It’s my first fantasy draft of the season.
I don’t really care if I win this league I’m drafting for tomorrow. I mean, sure, bragging rights are great, but this is a warm up draft. And yet I’m nervous.
I’m nervous because after all the ranking and analyzing I’ve done, I know who I want, but I don’t know if I’ll be able to get them. I have a general plan for the first three rounds, but that’s not going to cut it. I have work to do. And even that plan is general. If I have to draft, say, 4th, I really have no idea who I’ll draft and part of me is still thinking about stud WR theory if I draft late.
So, here I sit in the
Here’s my plan:
1) final review of rankings. Did I bump everyone in
2) Review last year’s lessons learned. I wrote them in this blog for just this occasion. I’ll repost them for you too.
3) Study the average draft positions. One of the things that has me feeling a little ungrounded right now is I haven’t spent a ton of time comparing my rankings to the magazines’ and websites, let alone the ADPs. I have no real idea who I can steal a couple rounds late or who I have to snag early if I want them. That will change tonight.
4) Slot my targets based on ADP. I may want Andre Johnson, but I don’t think I want to have to take him at the top of the second to get him, for example.
Then I might take part in a couple of mock drafts online. I’m not sure the value of those considering people are all trying theories and few of them are drafting the way they’d actually draft when it counted. Heck, half of ‘em sign up and either don’t participate or bail out in the fourth round. Still, it’ll get me comfortable with pulling the trigger on my picks and eliminating second guessing.
I can’t even post this now. See when you see it, you know I made it to Anchorage, AK.
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Friday, August 1, 2008
Preseason Begins!!!!!
Colts and Skins this Sunday. Yay!!!! It's almost real football!!!!
You've read the standard 'don't put too much stock in the pre-season' warnings. But I want to see a few basic things:
- who lines up opposite Reggie Wayne and how well do they do?
- does Manning look for Dallas Clark more than 2 or 3 times?
Both of those are related to how the team is adjusting to the potential loss of Marvin Harrison, who was expected to miss training camp due to offseason surgery, but practiced at least one day and missed at least one day. More research is needed into Harrison's health.
- Does anyone other than Addai get looks at RB with the first team?
I'm afraid Addai is going to split more carries with Rhodes and Keith than most want to believe.
- How does Jason Campbell adjust to the new offense?
This has impact for him and his WRs. I'm a Campbell homer, being an Auburn fan, but it's also a fact that Campbell's best year came under a so-called west coast offensive scheme the year that made him, Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown first round draft picks.
- How do the Skins use the RB? Whether it's Portis or another back in the preseason, it'll be Portis in the regular season. So does this new offense pass to the RB and get the RB the ball in space? This will be key to Portis' value this year, which I expect to be very high provided his coach can call plays in the NFL, something Jim Zorn's never done.
- What about Cooley and the TE role in the new offense? If the offense takes a lot of dinks and dunks to move the ball, Cooley could be more valuable this year than last.
- does either defense impress me.
I picked the Pack as a surprise defense last year based on their preseason. Maybe I got lucky, maybe the preseason means a little something after all.
You've read the standard 'don't put too much stock in the pre-season' warnings. But I want to see a few basic things:
- who lines up opposite Reggie Wayne and how well do they do?
- does Manning look for Dallas Clark more than 2 or 3 times?
Both of those are related to how the team is adjusting to the potential loss of Marvin Harrison, who was expected to miss training camp due to offseason surgery, but practiced at least one day and missed at least one day. More research is needed into Harrison's health.
- Does anyone other than Addai get looks at RB with the first team?
I'm afraid Addai is going to split more carries with Rhodes and Keith than most want to believe.
- How does Jason Campbell adjust to the new offense?
This has impact for him and his WRs. I'm a Campbell homer, being an Auburn fan, but it's also a fact that Campbell's best year came under a so-called west coast offensive scheme the year that made him, Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown first round draft picks.
- How do the Skins use the RB? Whether it's Portis or another back in the preseason, it'll be Portis in the regular season. So does this new offense pass to the RB and get the RB the ball in space? This will be key to Portis' value this year, which I expect to be very high provided his coach can call plays in the NFL, something Jim Zorn's never done.
- What about Cooley and the TE role in the new offense? If the offense takes a lot of dinks and dunks to move the ball, Cooley could be more valuable this year than last.
- does either defense impress me.
I picked the Pack as a surprise defense last year based on their preseason. Maybe I got lucky, maybe the preseason means a little something after all.
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College News: A Little Bama Hate. Rational Style.
Yeah, I'm an Auburn fan. And I'm terribly excited about Auburn's new offensive coordinator and our really, really early recruiting verbal commitments. I'll miss defensive coordinator Will Muschamp's passion, but his hot head led him to take a lateral move to a lesser conference if not a lesser team. But I haven't blogged about Auburn football this year because what little time I've had to write, I've been devoting to fantasy pro-football. Nonetheless, I still read a bit and here's an article I had to pass on.
It regards the University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa. Anti-'Bama blog rants are easy to find but this one is the best I've read this year. Rather than simply lampoon the 'Tahd' and its irrational fan-base, Erik uses rational argument and seasons it with snarky, arriving at something worth savoring. And sharing.
It regards the University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa. Anti-'Bama blog rants are easy to find but this one is the best I've read this year. Rather than simply lampoon the 'Tahd' and its irrational fan-base, Erik uses rational argument and seasons it with snarky, arriving at something worth savoring. And sharing.
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Monday, July 28, 2008
Burress, Chad Johnson Have Bum Ankles
FYI. Chad had surgery to remove a bone spur or something like that. He'll be fine. Burress rolled his ankle running and claims last year's ankle injury is not an issue.
Note on Burress, though. Maybe it's just me and my prejudices, but I am not high on Burress. This might be as a mistake on my part.
On the Plus side, he has ranked 11, 12 and 10th on the fantasy WR list the last three years and he is pretty much a lock for 1000 yards and 7 TDs with potential upside. He had 10 and 12 TDs the last two years and has logged as much as 1300 yards. 1300 and 12 is a tier or two above 1000 and 7. That's a 60 fantasy point swing. He also had just 6 games with 3 or fewer receptions and had at least one every game last year. And that was on a bum ankle. He scored a TD 6 games in a row to start the year, including a 3-TD performance against Dallas in week 1.
On the downside, he does put up some clunkers in terms of yardage. 32, 24, 14, 24, 36, 35, 6. Put one of those yardage totals with a goose egg in the TD column and that's easily enough to make you wish you'd drafted a different WR. Burress also put up a 6 yard game and 0 TDs during week 16 last year. He was probably resting his ankle, which as the title of this article points out, is hurting again. One has to wonder if this guy has weak ankles.
Other stuff to consider is that he's having contract issues.
The Mustard: Burress is probably worth his ADP of 11. I'd like to see him drop some, but apparently no one else is concerned about his ankle of a year ago. I am, so I'll likely pass in pick'ems. On the plus side, his name doesn't carry the cachet of other top 12 WRs, so at auction, you can probably snag him pretty cheaply compared to a Steve Smith, Torry Holt or Houshmanzadeh. Id rather have Burress than Holt and Smith. I go back and forth on Housh.
Note on Burress, though. Maybe it's just me and my prejudices, but I am not high on Burress. This might be as a mistake on my part.
On the Plus side, he has ranked 11, 12 and 10th on the fantasy WR list the last three years and he is pretty much a lock for 1000 yards and 7 TDs with potential upside. He had 10 and 12 TDs the last two years and has logged as much as 1300 yards. 1300 and 12 is a tier or two above 1000 and 7. That's a 60 fantasy point swing. He also had just 6 games with 3 or fewer receptions and had at least one every game last year. And that was on a bum ankle. He scored a TD 6 games in a row to start the year, including a 3-TD performance against Dallas in week 1.
On the downside, he does put up some clunkers in terms of yardage. 32, 24, 14, 24, 36, 35, 6. Put one of those yardage totals with a goose egg in the TD column and that's easily enough to make you wish you'd drafted a different WR. Burress also put up a 6 yard game and 0 TDs during week 16 last year. He was probably resting his ankle, which as the title of this article points out, is hurting again. One has to wonder if this guy has weak ankles.
Other stuff to consider is that he's having contract issues.
The Mustard: Burress is probably worth his ADP of 11. I'd like to see him drop some, but apparently no one else is concerned about his ankle of a year ago. I am, so I'll likely pass in pick'ems. On the plus side, his name doesn't carry the cachet of other top 12 WRs, so at auction, you can probably snag him pretty cheaply compared to a Steve Smith, Torry Holt or Houshmanzadeh. Id rather have Burress than Holt and Smith. I go back and forth on Housh.
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Lynch Off The Hook, Marshall Uncertain
AP reports that Marshawn Lynch will not be disciplined by the NFL for his hit and run. We can officially put this one behind us now.
Lynch is a back to consider near the bottom of the first, top of the second in pick'ems and someone at the top of your third tier or bottom of your second tier of RBs in your auction valuations.
Now Brandon Marshall.... We're still waiting for news from the NFL. He's been arrested three times in the past year. Dummy. And reports are he's out of shape to start training camp. Dummy. I'm still high on his potential, but he's making it hard to pick him on draft day. Maybe if he slips a bit his upside will be worth the risk. Keep in mind, though, he's probably going to miss 4-6 games due to suspension from the league for DUI. If you take Marshall as your WR1 or WR2, you need a good WR3. I don't think I'd take him as WR1 right now.
Lynch is a back to consider near the bottom of the first, top of the second in pick'ems and someone at the top of your third tier or bottom of your second tier of RBs in your auction valuations.
Now Brandon Marshall.... We're still waiting for news from the NFL. He's been arrested three times in the past year. Dummy. And reports are he's out of shape to start training camp. Dummy. I'm still high on his potential, but he's making it hard to pick him on draft day. Maybe if he slips a bit his upside will be worth the risk. Keep in mind, though, he's probably going to miss 4-6 games due to suspension from the league for DUI. If you take Marshall as your WR1 or WR2, you need a good WR3. I don't think I'd take him as WR1 right now.
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Friday, July 25, 2008
Bomber Says: Here's your sleeper RBs.
The Bomber works at some weeney place and due to various internet restrictions imposed by the network nazis at said weeney place of employment has resorted to having me post his first article for him. And here it is.
By way, apologies to those offended by the implication that if you don't play in an auction draft league, you are a moron with no analytical skills. The Bomber regrets hurting your feelings and you can make it up to him by sending cash or sacrificing the other members of your pick'em league in the 6th round of the draft.
This article is meant as a tool to help diagnose what running backs to target under $10 in your prospective fantasy football leagues. If you are in a pick'em league them perhaps you should consider stepping up to a real league that rewards some real analytical skills and gamesmanship as opposed to just reading off of some moronic cheatsheet.
Let us first introduce the full slate of participants with the caveat that some leagues may value some of these players more than 10 dollars. Having said that, you should have these guys on your radar and ready to pounce if you should so feel led.
Julius Jones
Michael Turner
Kevin Smith,
Darren McFadden
Matt Forte
Selvin Young
Jonathon Stewart
When choosing the perfect running back for your fantasy team one must consider the talent of the running back, O-Line, the offensive ability to move the football into scoring range, offensive philosophy, and finally opportunity to not only play but to stay on the field for 3 downs.
Let us first talk about the opportunity to play at all. It has become a rarity in the NFL to have a running back to shoulder more than 80 percent of the workload. Most NFL teams have gone to some sort of a rotation with 1 person deemed “the starter” which only means he will see more than 50 percent of the carries. Some of the few exceptions to the rule would include Ladanian Tomlinson, Frank Gore, and Stephen Jackson. In regards to staying on the field for 3 downs I mean that the running back is an effective and used receiver, and totes the rock at the goal line. When teams decide to shut down the run it is very helpful to have an RB who can get their stats via receiving yards or cheap goal line carries. With this premise in mind let us now begin our ranking and breakdown of the participants:
- Matt Forte – The
- Michael Turner – Some may not consider Turner a sleeper but he could be overlooked on draft day due to playing on such a dreadful team. The thing I like about Turner is that he is proven, fresh and no longer a rookie so he knows how to get through a 16 game season. The Falcons have committed to running the ball – a lot - and Turner will see all the looks into the 5. I have to guess that the
- Jonathon Stewart – Stewart has 2 things going for him – He is the big bruising back at 235 pounds who will get the goal line carriers, and
- Selvin Young – Selvin Young is being totally overlooked this year and rightfully so given Mike Shanahan’s insistence on burning fantasy football players the last decade. Young appears to be the projected starter and could put up decent numbers. He only scored 1 TD however despite averaging over 5 yards per carry. Shanahan has said last year that he was not a 25 carry back but since Young has put on 7 pounds of muscle in the offseason, Shanahan appears to have backed off that remark. In addition, the team’s goal line thief, Mike Bell, was recently released. Make no mistake, however, that
- Kevin Smith – I love this guy’s intensity and desire and think he could end up being the best of all the sleeper running backs by the time their careers are over. However, the current
- Darren McFadden – McFadden is being compared to Adrian Peterson and many expect the same type of offensive explosion that Peterson brought in his rookie campaign. Coach Lane Kiffin, however, has a history of bringing rookies along slowly. Besides, when you look at the legs of Mcfadden, I have a hard time thinking he can hold up under NFL type hitting. I believe McFadden will be used more in a Reggie Bush like fashion in his rookie campaign. Not enough to depend on as your starter.
- Julius Jones – With the heavy crop of rookie talent coming in people seem to have forgotten that Julius Jones is the new starting running back for the Seattle Seahawks. I do expect him to be revitalize and put up decent rushing totals in his new digs but Jones has never been much of a receiver and will be pulled at the goal line for TJ Duckett. There is no much upside to this.
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Thursday, July 24, 2008
Shockey to New Orleans
Yeah, I know it's old news, but for the record, I am more optimistic about all the skill players in New Orleans. That offense has been a little held back by a lack of playmakers. I love Colston and Brees already. Shockey just opens up options for Brees and ensures Colston has a little more room to run. A healthy passing threat, opens things up for Bush and McAllister. A more potent offense even makes the defense more valuable.
The most likely concern that comes with Shockey - his attitude - doesn't concern me. New Orleans is already established. Brees and Bush are bigger names and they have established relationships with Colston and McAllister. Brees is no wet-behind-the-ears rookie and he knows he doesn't have to give it to Shockey to be successful. If anything, Shockey will have to behave if he wants to see balls as he won't be able to intimidate anyone in New Orleans. I think he'll find a way to fit in and may even have a better overall stat line in the pass-happy Saints offense.
What's this mean for Kevin Boss? Be reasonable, okay, but certainly eyeball him as TE2. He probably won't reproduce Shockey's stats but Eli certainly has experience tossing to the TE.
The most likely concern that comes with Shockey - his attitude - doesn't concern me. New Orleans is already established. Brees and Bush are bigger names and they have established relationships with Colston and McAllister. Brees is no wet-behind-the-ears rookie and he knows he doesn't have to give it to Shockey to be successful. If anything, Shockey will have to behave if he wants to see balls as he won't be able to intimidate anyone in New Orleans. I think he'll find a way to fit in and may even have a better overall stat line in the pass-happy Saints offense.
What's this mean for Kevin Boss? Be reasonable, okay, but certainly eyeball him as TE2. He probably won't reproduce Shockey's stats but Eli certainly has experience tossing to the TE.
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Portis Upside Confirmed
I've been operating under the assumption the new offensive scheme in DC will be good for Portis, who is best operating in space. Turns out Portis and his HC are under the same assumption, judging by this article here. Further good news is that Portis has been in camp learning the system and that he and coach Zorn both seem to think Portis will be used 'a lot'.
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Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Matt Forte and Kevin Jones
I admit I was a little surprised the Bears signed Kevin Jones to a contract, but now that Jones has officially been placed on the PUP list, I'm a little more so. Jones, if you may recall, had knee surgery about 7 months ago.
According to CBS news, being on the PUP list now doesn't mean much as long as he is not on the PUP list on week one. If he's on the PUP list during the regular season, he's out at least six weeks.
The bottom line is that others will get nervous about Forte and this will drive his value down. The way I look at it, the team had to know Jones wasn't ready, so they must have brought Jones on as insurance.
According to CBS news, being on the PUP list now doesn't mean much as long as he is not on the PUP list on week one. If he's on the PUP list during the regular season, he's out at least six weeks.
The bottom line is that others will get nervous about Forte and this will drive his value down. The way I look at it, the team had to know Jones wasn't ready, so they must have brought Jones on as insurance.
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Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Drafting Tips 2008, Part 3
Get on and off the right bandwagons.
I've gotten in the habit of trying to jump off bandwagons before everyone else and then jumping on the bandwagons everyone else got off last year. I don't have the stats to prove it, but the way I judge human nature, it works.
People over-react. The high ranked players that didn't pan out last year are treated like pariahs this year. The unranked studs that came from nowhere are suddenly the second coming of Barry Sanders.
Consider my favorite sleeper RB this year: Thomas Jones. I was high on him last year - higher than most, actually - and he disappointed. His OL has improved. He has a better FB. He's still the only real rusher on a team that likes to use a single back. I think he's good for up to 1400 yards and 6 TDs, and with a little luck 8-10 TDs. Can you say potential top 12-15 RB at the RB 24 slot? Steal.
Second point: People sometimes don't look at the game-by-game results or the statistics. Dig a little deeper than the summary stats. Schaub and Andre Johnson, if healthy, are an elite pair. This is also why I'm on Ryan Grant's wagon. He only started 7 games, so moderate your hope a little, but he was 9th in TDs, 6th in YPC and if I recall my ESPN blurb correctly, had the highest percentage of runs of 20+ yards. If you extrapolate his TD total to a full 16 games, he would have had the most rushing TDs. He's certainly a potential top 5 back and he is already a bigger home-run threat than LT and AP (based on 7 games' worth of stats, I know) and he's being drafted as the 12th RB. At that position, he has more upside than downside, I believe.
What other wagons should you get on? Off?
Get on Board:
QBs:Cutler, Schaub, Garrard. Honorable Mention: Vince Young.
RBs: Thomas Jones, Ryan Grant, Portis, McGahee, Jamal Lewis, Jones-Drew, Jonathan Stewart, Matt Forte and Kevin Smith.
WRs: Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Marques Colston, Santonio Holmes, Jerry Porter.
TEs: Shockey (Yay! Drew Brees!), Owen Daniels, Tony Scheffler, Alge Crumpler, Vernon Davis
Get off the Wagon:
QBs: Palmer, Anderson, Roethlisberger. Honorable Mention: Jon Kitna, but only because there was never many people on his wagon.
RBs: Addai, Westbrook, AP, Ronnie Brown, Darren McFadden.
WRs: Chad Johnson, Houshmanzadeh, Holt, Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald. Honorable Mention: Randy Moss, Terrell Owens.
TEs: Gonzalez, Gates, Heap.
This is not to say draft Vernon Davis ahead of Antonio Gates. I'm saying that Gates will be the #1 or #2 TE taken and because of the team he's on and the toe issue, I believe it's more likely he will fail to live up to that slot. Davis, meanwhile, has burned fantasy footballers since he's been in the league but if anyone can turn him into a star, it's Martz and his pass happy offense because, really, who else is going to catch the ball in San Fran?
That's the same reasoning for my liking Joey Porter this year. I'm not selling the farm for the guy, but Garrard is good and there's not much for star power in the Jacksonville stable of WRs. Why not Joey Porter?
AP is the epitome of the player who's bandwagon you should watch ride off while you draft someone else. I'm not sure there is a more inconsistent player who gets more press off of a handful of games, however extraordinary that handful happened to be. He had 8 games under 100 yards rushing and 6 games over 100 yards and missed 2 altogether. He had a game against the Redskins where he had 3 total yard rushing on 14 attempts. Unacceptable. If you draft him, don't say you didn't realize he isn't explosive every week.
My list here is by no means complete. Make your own. Who underperformed his draft position last year? That player is almost certainly undervalued this year. Who was a superstar last year? That player is going to have no upside at the position you have to pick him at. Some players, like Addai, get over hyped on name recognition and I don't see any way for that player to live up to their ranking.
I've gotten in the habit of trying to jump off bandwagons before everyone else and then jumping on the bandwagons everyone else got off last year. I don't have the stats to prove it, but the way I judge human nature, it works.
People over-react. The high ranked players that didn't pan out last year are treated like pariahs this year. The unranked studs that came from nowhere are suddenly the second coming of Barry Sanders.
Consider my favorite sleeper RB this year: Thomas Jones. I was high on him last year - higher than most, actually - and he disappointed. His OL has improved. He has a better FB. He's still the only real rusher on a team that likes to use a single back. I think he's good for up to 1400 yards and 6 TDs, and with a little luck 8-10 TDs. Can you say potential top 12-15 RB at the RB 24 slot? Steal.
Second point: People sometimes don't look at the game-by-game results or the statistics. Dig a little deeper than the summary stats. Schaub and Andre Johnson, if healthy, are an elite pair. This is also why I'm on Ryan Grant's wagon. He only started 7 games, so moderate your hope a little, but he was 9th in TDs, 6th in YPC and if I recall my ESPN blurb correctly, had the highest percentage of runs of 20+ yards. If you extrapolate his TD total to a full 16 games, he would have had the most rushing TDs. He's certainly a potential top 5 back and he is already a bigger home-run threat than LT and AP (based on 7 games' worth of stats, I know) and he's being drafted as the 12th RB. At that position, he has more upside than downside, I believe.
What other wagons should you get on? Off?
Get on Board:
QBs:Cutler, Schaub, Garrard. Honorable Mention: Vince Young.
RBs: Thomas Jones, Ryan Grant, Portis, McGahee, Jamal Lewis, Jones-Drew, Jonathan Stewart, Matt Forte and Kevin Smith.
WRs: Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Marques Colston, Santonio Holmes, Jerry Porter.
TEs: Shockey (Yay! Drew Brees!), Owen Daniels, Tony Scheffler, Alge Crumpler, Vernon Davis
Get off the Wagon:
QBs: Palmer, Anderson, Roethlisberger. Honorable Mention: Jon Kitna, but only because there was never many people on his wagon.
RBs: Addai, Westbrook, AP, Ronnie Brown, Darren McFadden.
WRs: Chad Johnson, Houshmanzadeh, Holt, Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald. Honorable Mention: Randy Moss, Terrell Owens.
TEs: Gonzalez, Gates, Heap.
This is not to say draft Vernon Davis ahead of Antonio Gates. I'm saying that Gates will be the #1 or #2 TE taken and because of the team he's on and the toe issue, I believe it's more likely he will fail to live up to that slot. Davis, meanwhile, has burned fantasy footballers since he's been in the league but if anyone can turn him into a star, it's Martz and his pass happy offense because, really, who else is going to catch the ball in San Fran?
That's the same reasoning for my liking Joey Porter this year. I'm not selling the farm for the guy, but Garrard is good and there's not much for star power in the Jacksonville stable of WRs. Why not Joey Porter?
AP is the epitome of the player who's bandwagon you should watch ride off while you draft someone else. I'm not sure there is a more inconsistent player who gets more press off of a handful of games, however extraordinary that handful happened to be. He had 8 games under 100 yards rushing and 6 games over 100 yards and missed 2 altogether. He had a game against the Redskins where he had 3 total yard rushing on 14 attempts. Unacceptable. If you draft him, don't say you didn't realize he isn't explosive every week.
My list here is by no means complete. Make your own. Who underperformed his draft position last year? That player is almost certainly undervalued this year. Who was a superstar last year? That player is going to have no upside at the position you have to pick him at. Some players, like Addai, get over hyped on name recognition and I don't see any way for that player to live up to their ranking.
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Friday, July 11, 2008
Second Tier RBs
A couple of weeks ago, I listed my concerns about the top RBs here and said I'd blog about the five running backs who I think have a very good chance to get 1600 yards. I also said that Addai wasn't among them and blogged about him here.
That's right - I have Addai in my third tier. Read the article and see if I make any sense. I dare you.
So about that second tier, here it is with my projected fantasy point total based on 6 pt TDs and 1 point for every 10 yards rushing or receiving:
Ryan Grant, 242
Clinton Portis, 222
Willis McGahee, 220
Jamal Lewis, 220
Marshawn Lynch, 214
For the record, Ryan Grant is much closer to my projected totals for the tier 1 RBs than the rest of the tier 2 guys, but I just can't make myself call him tier one based on half a year's stats. Given his new QB and the chance that it was all a fluke, I'm not even going to suggest you take him as the fifth RB off the board. What I'm saying is, if he falls far enough, why not roll the dice on him? If he does meet the projections, you got a steal. Footballguys.com gives his ADP as 16, or the 12th RB off the board. You can get a potential top 5 back almost half way through the second round.
Clinton Portis is a player I like this year. He is great in space and the 'Skins are installing a West Coast offense that should keep defenses from crowding the line. He was averaging about 4 YPC in Washington under the old-school cloud of dust offense. He should get closer to the 5.5 YPC he had in Denver under the new system plus have opportunity for more catches. That's upside, folks, and his ADP is 9/RB 8. The best news is, he has a track record as a pretty good RB. Unlike Grant, I'm not that worried about him falling off now that he's put Ladell Betts firmly back on the bench. The closest thing I have to concern is whether the new HC, Jim Zorn, can call plays - something he has never done in the NFL.
McGahee is totally disrespected by fantasy nation. He was the #8 RB in fantasy football last year. He is virtually a lock for 1300-1400 all-purpose yards and his new OC is the guy that made Ronnie Brown the #1 RB in fantasy football through week 7 last year even after making Brown earn the starting spot the first few games. With an ADP of 14/RB 11, McGahee is a bargain even if he just repeats his historical averages. The upside is all free.
Jamal Lewis is also disrepected. He finished as the #6 RB in fantasy football last year and his ADP this year is 23/RB14. I blogged here about the reasons fantasy nation is down on Lewis and how the arguments are understandable. I stand by that article in saying I'm comfortable with him as my RB 2. It's just that I think he has a shot to be a top-10 back this year if he takes advantage of his upside. (I have explained before that I don't necessarily draft in order of my projections, right? I think Lewis has a pretty good shot at 220 fantasy points, but I'm not banking on it for the reasons laid out in the previous post.) Lewis really picked it up coming down the stretch with 789 rushing,140 receiving and 5 TDs in the last 7 games of the year. If you take Lewis, you're hoping he and the Browns keep that up. One more good thing - he has no real competition for carries.
Marshawn Lynch and the Buffalo Bills played a brutal schedule last year, his rookie year, with a new QB to boot, and he still put up 1300 all-purpose yards and 7 TDs in just 13 games. He's supposedly going to be a lynchpin of the offense this year. The schedule should be easier. And an improved O-line should help him find the end zone more often. As long as Goodell doesn't suspend him for a hit-and-run on a pedestrian, Lynch is a pretty safe bet to outplay his ADP of 12/RB 10.
Honorable Mentions:
Addai is next on my list. I'm a little concerned about him losing carries to Rhodes and Keith, but he'll finish the year very respectably whatever happens. He just won't be a top 5 RB barring a lot of other RBs failing to live up their potential this year.
Frank Gore is flirting with the second tier. I'm warming to the possibility that Martz almost has to use Gore because outside of Vernon Davis, he's got no other proven weapon. Plus, Gore is obviously a more proven threat than Davis. For what it's worth, WR Bryant Johnson is a great sleeper WR to grab, but he's just not a proven threat. Yet.
Earnest Graham and Larry Johnson are right there, too, with concerns about competition for carries and an awful offense (line and QB), respectively, keeping them from being higher in my projections.
That's right - I have Addai in my third tier. Read the article and see if I make any sense. I dare you.
So about that second tier, here it is with my projected fantasy point total based on 6 pt TDs and 1 point for every 10 yards rushing or receiving:
Ryan Grant, 242
Clinton Portis, 222
Willis McGahee, 220
Jamal Lewis, 220
Marshawn Lynch, 214
For the record, Ryan Grant is much closer to my projected totals for the tier 1 RBs than the rest of the tier 2 guys, but I just can't make myself call him tier one based on half a year's stats. Given his new QB and the chance that it was all a fluke, I'm not even going to suggest you take him as the fifth RB off the board. What I'm saying is, if he falls far enough, why not roll the dice on him? If he does meet the projections, you got a steal. Footballguys.com gives his ADP as 16, or the 12th RB off the board. You can get a potential top 5 back almost half way through the second round.
Clinton Portis is a player I like this year. He is great in space and the 'Skins are installing a West Coast offense that should keep defenses from crowding the line. He was averaging about 4 YPC in Washington under the old-school cloud of dust offense. He should get closer to the 5.5 YPC he had in Denver under the new system plus have opportunity for more catches. That's upside, folks, and his ADP is 9/RB 8. The best news is, he has a track record as a pretty good RB. Unlike Grant, I'm not that worried about him falling off now that he's put Ladell Betts firmly back on the bench. The closest thing I have to concern is whether the new HC, Jim Zorn, can call plays - something he has never done in the NFL.
McGahee is totally disrespected by fantasy nation. He was the #8 RB in fantasy football last year. He is virtually a lock for 1300-1400 all-purpose yards and his new OC is the guy that made Ronnie Brown the #1 RB in fantasy football through week 7 last year even after making Brown earn the starting spot the first few games. With an ADP of 14/RB 11, McGahee is a bargain even if he just repeats his historical averages. The upside is all free.
Jamal Lewis is also disrepected. He finished as the #6 RB in fantasy football last year and his ADP this year is 23/RB14. I blogged here about the reasons fantasy nation is down on Lewis and how the arguments are understandable. I stand by that article in saying I'm comfortable with him as my RB 2. It's just that I think he has a shot to be a top-10 back this year if he takes advantage of his upside. (I have explained before that I don't necessarily draft in order of my projections, right? I think Lewis has a pretty good shot at 220 fantasy points, but I'm not banking on it for the reasons laid out in the previous post.) Lewis really picked it up coming down the stretch with 789 rushing,140 receiving and 5 TDs in the last 7 games of the year. If you take Lewis, you're hoping he and the Browns keep that up. One more good thing - he has no real competition for carries.
Marshawn Lynch and the Buffalo Bills played a brutal schedule last year, his rookie year, with a new QB to boot, and he still put up 1300 all-purpose yards and 7 TDs in just 13 games. He's supposedly going to be a lynchpin of the offense this year. The schedule should be easier. And an improved O-line should help him find the end zone more often. As long as Goodell doesn't suspend him for a hit-and-run on a pedestrian, Lynch is a pretty safe bet to outplay his ADP of 12/RB 10.
Honorable Mentions:
Addai is next on my list. I'm a little concerned about him losing carries to Rhodes and Keith, but he'll finish the year very respectably whatever happens. He just won't be a top 5 RB barring a lot of other RBs failing to live up their potential this year.
Frank Gore is flirting with the second tier. I'm warming to the possibility that Martz almost has to use Gore because outside of Vernon Davis, he's got no other proven weapon. Plus, Gore is obviously a more proven threat than Davis. For what it's worth, WR Bryant Johnson is a great sleeper WR to grab, but he's just not a proven threat. Yet.
Earnest Graham and Larry Johnson are right there, too, with concerns about competition for carries and an awful offense (line and QB), respectively, keeping them from being higher in my projections.
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Tuesday, July 8, 2008
Drafting Tips 2008, Part 2
In part 1 of this article, I demonstrated the sinking value of RBs and promoted the consideration of Tom Brady as high as the middle of the first round. I want to defend that a little briefly and then move to advocating the increased importance of WRs and TEs compared to RBs in this post.
As for Brady, I didn't go so far as to advocate it, but he might be worth taking #1 overall. The best reason not to do so is because we all remember taking Peyton Manning #1 overall in 2005 and being let down when he put up a mere mortal like stat line of 3747 and 28.
Why did Manning burn us? (Well, you, maybe. I took LT with the first pick in my office league that year. Anyway...) Manning burned us because 2004 was a gross statistical anomaly in his stats. Perhaps he faced weaker defenses, perhaps the team was just 'clicking' with many players at their physical and mental peak at the same time. Maybe Dungy got a sneak peak at the defensive playbooks of his division opponents. Whatever it was, nothing fundamental changed about the Colts' offense. There was no reason to suspect Manning's 2004 numbers would repeat in 2005 other than hope.
The Patriots, of course, did have a fundamental shift in their offense not just in play calling, but in personnel. The obvious is the addition of Randy Moss, but the Patriots also said goodbye to bruiser Corey Dillon and transitioned to an injured Laurence Maroney. Brady, who had been pretty darn good anyway, suddenly had a stud WR who could outrun and outjump the defenders and the offense had little need to pound the rock, and little desire to do so because of Maroney's shoulder issues. Having experienced success with the wide-open aerial attack, it's reasonable to assume the team will try it again in 2008, is it not?
But Maroney averaged over 20 attempts per game the last three games of the regular season and the playoffs, you counter? Well, he did. But Moss' stats didn't drop off during the regular season and the playoffs favor rushing b/c the refs don't call interference or holding as often. I wouldn't be worried too much about Maroney supplanting the passing game. Brady's most likely not going to throw 50 TDs again, I admit, but he could easily throw in the mid-30s, making him again the top TD throwing QB. Only Romo (36), Roethlisberger (32) and Manning (31) were even close to that last year.
If your goal is to limit risk while snagging sure things in the first round or two, you can't go wrong with Brady.
Regarding the rise of WRs and TEs, here are the numbers:
WRs
2006 2007
201 280
195 218
183 212
180 198
179 188
178 185
174 179
173 176
173 170
165 167
For comparison's sake
2006 2007
#20 135 130
#30 115 110
TEs
2006 2007
141 147
118 145
115 139
106 133
105 121
99 121
97 93
92 85
88 82
76 78
The first observation is that at the top of the rankings, there appears to be an upward trend in value of WRs and TEs from 2006 to 2007. Yet this trend is not across the board as the values even out. What this says to me is that the stud receivers are gaining more value even while their lesser peers are not. It's evidence of offensive coordinators willing to get the ball into the hands of their studs.
These numbers plainly do not justify abandoning running backs for WRs and TEs. But they do provide support for those who find themselves in a spot with the 'sure thing' RBs gone. The stud-WR drafting theory of grabbing two top flight WRs rather than two questionable RBs keeps looking better every year.
As for Brady, I didn't go so far as to advocate it, but he might be worth taking #1 overall. The best reason not to do so is because we all remember taking Peyton Manning #1 overall in 2005 and being let down when he put up a mere mortal like stat line of 3747 and 28.
Why did Manning burn us? (Well, you, maybe. I took LT with the first pick in my office league that year. Anyway...) Manning burned us because 2004 was a gross statistical anomaly in his stats. Perhaps he faced weaker defenses, perhaps the team was just 'clicking' with many players at their physical and mental peak at the same time. Maybe Dungy got a sneak peak at the defensive playbooks of his division opponents. Whatever it was, nothing fundamental changed about the Colts' offense. There was no reason to suspect Manning's 2004 numbers would repeat in 2005 other than hope.
The Patriots, of course, did have a fundamental shift in their offense not just in play calling, but in personnel. The obvious is the addition of Randy Moss, but the Patriots also said goodbye to bruiser Corey Dillon and transitioned to an injured Laurence Maroney. Brady, who had been pretty darn good anyway, suddenly had a stud WR who could outrun and outjump the defenders and the offense had little need to pound the rock, and little desire to do so because of Maroney's shoulder issues. Having experienced success with the wide-open aerial attack, it's reasonable to assume the team will try it again in 2008, is it not?
But Maroney averaged over 20 attempts per game the last three games of the regular season and the playoffs, you counter? Well, he did. But Moss' stats didn't drop off during the regular season and the playoffs favor rushing b/c the refs don't call interference or holding as often. I wouldn't be worried too much about Maroney supplanting the passing game. Brady's most likely not going to throw 50 TDs again, I admit, but he could easily throw in the mid-30s, making him again the top TD throwing QB. Only Romo (36), Roethlisberger (32) and Manning (31) were even close to that last year.
If your goal is to limit risk while snagging sure things in the first round or two, you can't go wrong with Brady.
Regarding the rise of WRs and TEs, here are the numbers:
WRs
2006 2007
201 280
195 218
183 212
180 198
179 188
178 185
174 179
173 176
173 170
165 167
For comparison's sake
2006 2007
#20 135 130
#30 115 110
TEs
2006 2007
141 147
118 145
115 139
106 133
105 121
99 121
97 93
92 85
88 82
76 78
The first observation is that at the top of the rankings, there appears to be an upward trend in value of WRs and TEs from 2006 to 2007. Yet this trend is not across the board as the values even out. What this says to me is that the stud receivers are gaining more value even while their lesser peers are not. It's evidence of offensive coordinators willing to get the ball into the hands of their studs.
These numbers plainly do not justify abandoning running backs for WRs and TEs. But they do provide support for those who find themselves in a spot with the 'sure thing' RBs gone. The stud-WR drafting theory of grabbing two top flight WRs rather than two questionable RBs keeps looking better every year.
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Thursday, July 3, 2008
Frank Gore Evaluation
The Niner Insider from SFGate.com did an excellent job here on evaluating Frank Gore and, to a lesser extent, Alex Smith.
Alex Smith is one of many intriguing QBs this year. Martz' resume is littered with 4000-yard passers.
Gore is also 'intriguing' to me. I put that in quotes because while many are banking on him to have a top 10 performance this year, I'm having a hard time letting go of the Martz' resume concerning running backs not named Marshall Faulk.
On the other hand, Gore finished 10th in Yahoo standard scoring last year in a down year despite an injury and an all-around crummy offense. It was, of course, a down year for all running backs and Edgerrin James actually finished 9th for what that's worth.
The Mustard: You could do worse than snagging Smith as your QB2. In fact, he'll probably be high on my QB2 target list. As for Gore -- I'm risk averse, but he has to do better than last year, so he certainly warrants consideration for your top-10 running backs list but without knowing if Martz really will give Gore 25 touches a game (as he said this off-season), I just can't bank on Gore in the top 5.
Alex Smith is one of many intriguing QBs this year. Martz' resume is littered with 4000-yard passers.
Gore is also 'intriguing' to me. I put that in quotes because while many are banking on him to have a top 10 performance this year, I'm having a hard time letting go of the Martz' resume concerning running backs not named Marshall Faulk.
On the other hand, Gore finished 10th in Yahoo standard scoring last year in a down year despite an injury and an all-around crummy offense. It was, of course, a down year for all running backs and Edgerrin James actually finished 9th for what that's worth.
The Mustard: You could do worse than snagging Smith as your QB2. In fact, he'll probably be high on my QB2 target list. As for Gore -- I'm risk averse, but he has to do better than last year, so he certainly warrants consideration for your top-10 running backs list but without knowing if Martz really will give Gore 25 touches a game (as he said this off-season), I just can't bank on Gore in the top 5.
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Monday, June 30, 2008
Drafting Tips 2008, Part 1
This may be the year to pass on a first round running back and maybe the second and third round running back, too. The running back position, due to the rise of the RBBC and the passing offense, has lost its luster. QBs, WRs and even TEs are picking up the slack and they should warrant higher consideration on your draft boards.
Allow me to defend my tinfoil-hat wearing, black helicopter, secret UN codes on street signs, unconventional position. I shall start with the numbers for RBs the last two years. The #8 running back (Jones-Drew) in 2006 scored 223 fantasy points*. In 2007, Adrian Peterson and Joseph Addai tied for third with 222 fantasy points. Put plainly, the 8th best RB performance in 2006 would have been the third best last year. In an economic sense, the RB position devalued from 2006 to 2007.
2006 2007
418 293
318 269
317 222
251 222
249 210
243 207
234 187
223 174
196 172
177 170
For comparison's sake
06 07
# 20 160 139
# 30 122 105
I don't have the 2005 ESPN numbers, but I don't think this is a one-time blip. I believe the RB numbers are going to stay down. Why? Primarily the rise of the RBBC and the increasing use of the passing game to move the ball. The NFL is changing, baby.
One more thing to note is that although the numbers at the top three in 2006 show a huge gulf of difference between them and the fourth spot, there's nowhere near the disparity in the 2007 numbers. (Ditto between first and second spots, BTW). However, after that, the numbers are bunched pretty well for both years, usually with no more than a point per game separating any position from the one before it.
What are the lessons - RBs are less valuable than they used to be, even the uberstuds have 'come back to the pack' and the difference between RB4 and RB-whatever isn't as large as we make it out to be in our heads.
Don't pay almost as much for the 4th RB as the 3rd RB and almost as much for the 5th as the 4th as if you're on some sort of 'slotting' system at an auction draft and don't assume you have to pick a guy 4th or 5th in a redraft because they're the 4th or 5th ranked RB.
"Okay, smart guy, then who do you draft in the middle of the first?," you ask. Well, if you're sure about your favorite RB's chances and you know he's the stud every down back, sure, take him, otherwise, consider Tom Brady. Dude scored 378* fantasy points last year. Assuming he comes back to earth a little bit, this is still essentially the same offense with a worse defense, meaning he may have to pass more and ain't coming back down that much. Brady is to QBs what LT is RBs - game changing for your roster, only more consistent and, if trends hold, higher scoring.
I'm going against conventional wisdom, here, I know. CW holds that there are 32 starting QBs and 12 fantasy teams. Not only are there enough to go around, but there are a lot of pretty good ones so they are nowhere near the commodity as an RB. I used that strategy myself last year in snagging Kitna and Romo - both undervalued and easily had for less than many RB3s.
Go against CW this year. Brady separated himself from second place by almost 100 points and from 10th place by 259 points - that's over 16 points per game difference. LT separated himself from the # 10 RB by a 'measly' 7.7 points per game. 16 points is a TD and a hundred yards. Having Brady as your QB is like having an extra stud WR on your roster every week. LT is worth a TD and 10 yards over the #10 RB which is nifty, but 'meh' by comparison.
*Points and stats per my ESPN Fantasy Football 2008 magazine.
Allow me to defend my tinfoil-hat wearing, black helicopter, secret UN codes on street signs, unconventional position. I shall start with the numbers for RBs the last two years. The #8 running back (Jones-Drew) in 2006 scored 223 fantasy points*. In 2007, Adrian Peterson and Joseph Addai tied for third with 222 fantasy points. Put plainly, the 8th best RB performance in 2006 would have been the third best last year. In an economic sense, the RB position devalued from 2006 to 2007.
2006 2007
418 293
318 269
317 222
251 222
249 210
243 207
234 187
223 174
196 172
177 170
For comparison's sake
06 07
# 20 160 139
# 30 122 105
I don't have the 2005 ESPN numbers, but I don't think this is a one-time blip. I believe the RB numbers are going to stay down. Why? Primarily the rise of the RBBC and the increasing use of the passing game to move the ball. The NFL is changing, baby.
One more thing to note is that although the numbers at the top three in 2006 show a huge gulf of difference between them and the fourth spot, there's nowhere near the disparity in the 2007 numbers. (Ditto between first and second spots, BTW). However, after that, the numbers are bunched pretty well for both years, usually with no more than a point per game separating any position from the one before it.
What are the lessons - RBs are less valuable than they used to be, even the uberstuds have 'come back to the pack' and the difference between RB4 and RB-whatever isn't as large as we make it out to be in our heads.
Don't pay almost as much for the 4th RB as the 3rd RB and almost as much for the 5th as the 4th as if you're on some sort of 'slotting' system at an auction draft and don't assume you have to pick a guy 4th or 5th in a redraft because they're the 4th or 5th ranked RB.
"Okay, smart guy, then who do you draft in the middle of the first?," you ask. Well, if you're sure about your favorite RB's chances and you know he's the stud every down back, sure, take him, otherwise, consider Tom Brady. Dude scored 378* fantasy points last year. Assuming he comes back to earth a little bit, this is still essentially the same offense with a worse defense, meaning he may have to pass more and ain't coming back down that much. Brady is to QBs what LT is RBs - game changing for your roster, only more consistent and, if trends hold, higher scoring.
I'm going against conventional wisdom, here, I know. CW holds that there are 32 starting QBs and 12 fantasy teams. Not only are there enough to go around, but there are a lot of pretty good ones so they are nowhere near the commodity as an RB. I used that strategy myself last year in snagging Kitna and Romo - both undervalued and easily had for less than many RB3s.
Go against CW this year. Brady separated himself from second place by almost 100 points and from 10th place by 259 points - that's over 16 points per game difference. LT separated himself from the # 10 RB by a 'measly' 7.7 points per game. 16 points is a TD and a hundred yards. Having Brady as your QB is like having an extra stud WR on your roster every week. LT is worth a TD and 10 yards over the #10 RB which is nifty, but 'meh' by comparison.
*Points and stats per my ESPN Fantasy Football 2008 magazine.
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Earnest Graham
It looks like Earnest Graham has his contract now, reportedly 3 years totalling 10.5 million. I'm guessing that will pay him about 3 million this year. I'm starting to feel a little better about Graham now that he has a contract and Cadillac is headed to the PUP list.
Don't forget that Warrick Dunn is in town though. Dunn is an excellent third down back and for what it's worth he was pretty much an every down back the last two years in Atlanta.
Don't forget that Warrick Dunn is in town though. Dunn is an excellent third down back and for what it's worth he was pretty much an every down back the last two years in Atlanta.
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Sunday, June 29, 2008
Carnell Williams, Earnest Graham
Stolen from Rotoworld.com, which credits Tampa Tribune:
The Tampa Tribune confirms that Carnell Williams is likely to begin the season on the PUP list.
The Tampa Tribune confirms that Carnell Williams is likely to begin the season on the PUP list.
No surprise here, but it's good to see some realistic expectations after all the positive press Cadillac has seen. In reality, the Bucs have no idea if Williams will even play this season. Fantasy leaguers don't need to draft him.
The Mustard: Now we can start to be a little more positive about Graham. I still think Dunn will cut into his ceiling, but Graham can be a good RB2.
The Mustard: Now we can start to be a little more positive about Graham. I still think Dunn will cut into his ceiling, but Graham can be a good RB2.
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Saturday, June 28, 2008
Tony Scheffler
I just looked at Tony Scheffler, what with Denver being on my mind now. I took the stats from week 7 to 17 and looked at them. Week by week, Scheffler was a good value. A little inconsistent, as are most TEs not named Witten, Gates or Gonzalez, but he also scored 11, 8, 14 and 16 fantasy points in games during that stretch. So about a third of the time, he's putting up WR-like stats.
I also annualized those stats (divide by 11 and multiply by 16) to come up with 740 yards and 7 TDs. That would have put him 7th on the list of fantasy TEs last year. Translation: he's a fantasy starter. His composite ranking on footballguys.com is 11 and that site says his ADP is TE12.
The Mustard: Scheffler is a draft day steal at TE.
I also annualized those stats (divide by 11 and multiply by 16) to come up with 740 yards and 7 TDs. That would have put him 7th on the list of fantasy TEs last year. Translation: he's a fantasy starter. His composite ranking on footballguys.com is 11 and that site says his ADP is TE12.
The Mustard: Scheffler is a draft day steal at TE.
Brandon Marshall, Dumb Fart Nominee
Brandon Marshall is giving me fits. I expect both Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall to progress this year, their third, and if you go back and look, neither were too shabby last year. (Marshall was 1325/7, Cutler was 3500/20 with 200/1 rushing.) Obviously, both are discussed as those who might break out this year, but you can still get them for less than more well-known players who have lower ceilings.
I discount the arm-injuring incident. People mock, but it is possible to hurt yourself while rough housing, so I take the story at face value. But this pattern of alleged domestic abuse is becoming troubling. Odds are the NFL will not act until the legal system does, however, will it be a distraction to Marshall and when will the legal issue be addressed? And of course, what distracts Marshall will likely affect Cutler's stats.
The Mustard: I'm dropping Marshall from someone I was targeting to someone I hope to get at a good value because of this news. Obviously, I'm not going to plan on having him at the end of the year, so if you or I take him, we need to be sure that our WR3 or WR4 pan out.
I discount the arm-injuring incident. People mock, but it is possible to hurt yourself while rough housing, so I take the story at face value. But this pattern of alleged domestic abuse is becoming troubling. Odds are the NFL will not act until the legal system does, however, will it be a distraction to Marshall and when will the legal issue be addressed? And of course, what distracts Marshall will likely affect Cutler's stats.
The Mustard: I'm dropping Marshall from someone I was targeting to someone I hope to get at a good value because of this news. Obviously, I'm not going to plan on having him at the end of the year, so if you or I take him, we need to be sure that our WR3 or WR4 pan out.
Mendenhall, Parker
From CBSsportsline.com:
Steelers plan to use Mendenhall: The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports the Steelers plan to use rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall a lot in 2008. The paper says the Steelers didn't change their draft plans when Mendenhall unexpectedly fell into their laps so he could be Willie Parker's caddie. If Mendenhall doesn't play right away, it'll be because he's injured. Based on early returns from voluntary workouts, Mendenhall has looked good. He has shown power and speed. The Steelers covet Mendenhall's ability to run between the tackles and catch the ball out of the backfield. He also has worked on returning kickoffs. Even when he's not in the backfield, the Steelers want to give him an opportunity to make plays.
(Updated 06/17/2008).
Hmmm... I know what this does to Parker's value. It kills it. I think we've already covered that. But with news that the Steelers plan to use Mendenhall 'a lot', it makes me wonder if Mendenhall is not a sleeper candidate.
The Mustard: I don't think he'll put Parker on the bench, so the ceiling is limited, but Mendenhall might be a cheap bye-week fill in for you. Take Parker in a similar draft slot - RB3.
Steelers plan to use Mendenhall: The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports the Steelers plan to use rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall a lot in 2008. The paper says the Steelers didn't change their draft plans when Mendenhall unexpectedly fell into their laps so he could be Willie Parker's caddie. If Mendenhall doesn't play right away, it'll be because he's injured. Based on early returns from voluntary workouts, Mendenhall has looked good. He has shown power and speed. The Steelers covet Mendenhall's ability to run between the tackles and catch the ball out of the backfield. He also has worked on returning kickoffs. Even when he's not in the backfield, the Steelers want to give him an opportunity to make plays.
(Updated 06/17/2008).
Hmmm... I know what this does to Parker's value. It kills it. I think we've already covered that. But with news that the Steelers plan to use Mendenhall 'a lot', it makes me wonder if Mendenhall is not a sleeper candidate.
The Mustard: I don't think he'll put Parker on the bench, so the ceiling is limited, but Mendenhall might be a cheap bye-week fill in for you. Take Parker in a similar draft slot - RB3.
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Why I'm Down On Addai
First, let's define what I mean when I say I am 'down' on Addai. He is the best RB on a prolific offense who is capable of doing everything the coaches require of him and is capable of 4.8 YPC and has had almost 300 rushes in a season. For the sake of consistency, he's put up about 1000 rushing and about 400 receiving two years in a row. Addai has a pretty high floor.
The problem with Addai being pretty consistently ranked around 5th by the magazines is two-fold.
First, the magazines and websites overvalue the final stat line from last year and ignore the game by game results.
Addai had meaningful carries in 13 games because he missed one during the season and was rested at the end of the season. Week 15 (first week of playoffs) he put up about 7 points. In the championship week (16), he put up 8. Thanks a lot, there, Mr. Dungy. If your championship happened to be week 17, you got 2 points from him. (and you need to change leagues). Addai also scored 6 of his 15 TDs in two games. Otherwise, he had exactly one 2-TD game, which is more than balanced with 4 games where he failed to find the end zone. Shabby? No, it's not. It's just not the stuff I want from my 'stud' RB selected with the #5 overall pick.
Second, the magazines and websites seem to be predicting an increase in carries and completely discounting the return of Dominic Rhodes and the continued presence of Kenton Keith. In 2006, Rhodes got almost half the carries. Rhodes was eventually relegated to second back behind Addai that season, then allowed to go to Oakland (or traded? either way...) And he's two years older. Nonetheless, there is a comfort factor in Indy with Rhodes, which means there's a chance he'll be used on roles that would otherwise go to Addai. Meanwhile, Kenton Keith, in relief of Addai last season, didn't look too shabby.
So here's the score: Dungy and Colts have run a split RBBC before and with Rhodes and Keith on the roster, there's a possibility they'll do it again this year; Addai isn't a consistent fantasy force, despite his very good weeks, especially considering Dungy 'disappeared' him during the fantasy playoff and championship weeks.
The Mustard: Just avoid him. You'd have to take him too high or pay too much for him. He'll be a value next year. In fact, I'd trade him now in a dynasty league.
The problem with Addai being pretty consistently ranked around 5th by the magazines is two-fold.
First, the magazines and websites overvalue the final stat line from last year and ignore the game by game results.
Addai had meaningful carries in 13 games because he missed one during the season and was rested at the end of the season. Week 15 (first week of playoffs) he put up about 7 points. In the championship week (16), he put up 8. Thanks a lot, there, Mr. Dungy. If your championship happened to be week 17, you got 2 points from him. (and you need to change leagues). Addai also scored 6 of his 15 TDs in two games. Otherwise, he had exactly one 2-TD game, which is more than balanced with 4 games where he failed to find the end zone. Shabby? No, it's not. It's just not the stuff I want from my 'stud' RB selected with the #5 overall pick.
Second, the magazines and websites seem to be predicting an increase in carries and completely discounting the return of Dominic Rhodes and the continued presence of Kenton Keith. In 2006, Rhodes got almost half the carries. Rhodes was eventually relegated to second back behind Addai that season, then allowed to go to Oakland (or traded? either way...) And he's two years older. Nonetheless, there is a comfort factor in Indy with Rhodes, which means there's a chance he'll be used on roles that would otherwise go to Addai. Meanwhile, Kenton Keith, in relief of Addai last season, didn't look too shabby.
So here's the score: Dungy and Colts have run a split RBBC before and with Rhodes and Keith on the roster, there's a possibility they'll do it again this year; Addai isn't a consistent fantasy force, despite his very good weeks, especially considering Dungy 'disappeared' him during the fantasy playoff and championship weeks.
The Mustard: Just avoid him. You'd have to take him too high or pay too much for him. He'll be a value next year. In fact, I'd trade him now in a dynasty league.
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