Since I've started this blog, I've been pondering whether to chronicle my successes and failures of assorted fantasy teams. On the negative side, having a pile of teams will by necessity dilute the enjoyment I get from each. Two or three teams seems to me to be about as much as I can reasonably care about. On the other hand, I get to start drafting early and often and I get to try out a few strategies to see how they compare at year's end.
One idea comes from about 6 years ago. A guy in a Yahoo league drafted all the Packers - even some that didn't matter at all like the WR3. I just knew he'd lose every other week, plus the bye week and miss the playoffs. Turns out, he won the league. He even managed to somehow win his bye week I believe. I've always wanted to try to recreate that and finally tried last year.
In an ESPN.com league, I drafted all the Saints I could. The TE got traded after our draft, I got beat to Devery Henderson and I got beat to the waiver wire for Colston, so it was an incomplete experiment that didn't go well. I think I shall try again, but which team to try it with?
I can also try different fantasy sites. Of those I've tried so far, Yahoo is the benchmark for ease of use but they don't offer live scoring unless you pay for it. Fox Sports is another free site that is almost as user friendly as Yahoo, but offered free live scoring so it's my favorite so far. ESPN, unless you're an Insider, is a frustrating puddle of cold snot. NFL.com is okay, but was clunky to use compared to Fox Sports and Yahoo.
So I'm open to suggestions. Teams to try to draft all of? Sites to try?
Friday, June 29, 2007
Thursday, June 28, 2007
Norm Chow On LenDale White
"He may be a sleeper," says Chow.
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Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Running Back Run Down
Any magazine or website will tell you that LT is the top running back and almost all will rank Steven Jackson and Frank Gore two and three. Opinions start to diverge from there.
Yes, I have a list but my rankings are ultimately only as likely as anyone else’s to be accurate by the end of the season. So rather than just throw out a plain old list, I will detail the high risk and high reward players on my radar that I think the fantasy world might miss. My nominees for running back gambles, good and bad, are:
High Risk:
Brian Westbrook – He is ranked way too high this year. For starters, he has never finished a whole season and has missed as many as four games. Second, last year’s rushing total of 1217 is his first over 1000 and his second over 617. Finally, it was week 10 that Westbrook started getting 20 plus carries regularly, coinciding with the loss of McNabb. McNabb is back. You still want Westbrook because the man is a threat, the primary carrier on his team and catches a lot of passes, but because last year was a very explainable abberation, you want him as your RB2, not your RB1
Maurice Jones-Drew – I have a hard time thinking people are really going to draft him as an RB1. Nonetheless, I’ve seen him ranked as high as 9th. Jacksonville paid Fred Taylor millions to return, not the sign of confidence I would like to see if I’m drafting Jones-Drew high. At best, you’re looking at an RBBC situation. At worst, Greg Jones gets some goal line work as the third man in the committee. Jones-Drew is an RB3/RB4 with the prayer he gets the goal line work and enough carries to justify that being picked that high. Don’t be the one who drafts this guy in the first three rounds. Heck, don't draft him. There has got to be either a more consistent, lower risk RB3 or an RB3 with more upside available.
Honorable Mention High Risk:
Reggie Bush – He is a second year back and Deuce McAllister is still on the roster. His rushing and receiving yardage are all over the map. His TD total, (8) is skewed by a 4 TD game against the weak Niners. In short, if you count on him to put up points, you're going to be let down a lot. In a keeper league, yeah, hold on for when Deuce is gone. In a redraft, you’re going to have to get him in an RB1 slot, which if I had to wager on it, I’d say will turn out to be a mistake. Barring injury to Deuce, Bush is a mid-range RB2 at best not because he isn't talanted, but because other backs are in better situations and will be more consistent producers.
Larry Johnson – For reasons I’ve already detailed on this blog, he’s still an RB1, but he’s not going to repeat last year. His YPC and attempts will both drop even if he doesn’t hold out and isn’t traded. Grit your teeth and let him go to the next guy until late in the first round. Then that guy can worry about whether LJ will hold out or even make it through the season.
High Reward:
There are a lot of potential candidates in this category. If you do your homework, it is a good year to consider a top tier QB or WR mid to late in round 2 and roll the dice on running backs in the third and fourth rounds.
Brandon Jacobs – If there’s a Frank Gore this year, it could be Jacobs. The naysayers abound saying that Jacobs is going to split carries and/or get injured. On Football Guys, his composite ranking is 27th. Mark Wimer ranks him 41st. Well Westbrook has some competition for carries and we know he gets injured a lot. But unlike Westbrook, Jacobs is the goal line back. Jacobs is also going to start the season as the primary back and the job is his to lose. Even though I don’t think Jacobs will net 2100 yards from scrimmage like Gore, I still like his chances of being a top 10 back.
Thomas Jones – Did you know that the Jets were seventh in rushing attempts last year? Jones is better than Leon Washington and should be able to stay in on third downs.
Cedric Benson – Did you know the Bears were fifth in rushing attempts last year? I think Adrian Peterson (the other Adrian Peterson) will get some third down work, but Benson gets the lion’s share of the touches and the goal line work.
Honorable Mentions High Reward:
Marshawn Lynch – The rookie is the starter and looks to be used as an all-purpose threat in running and passing situations. He’s still a rookie, though. You can get him as an RB3 and he will probably be worth an RB2.
*Ronnie Brown – Another player with rankings all over the map, I expect most will rank Brown between 15 and 20 on their RB board. However, Brown has no competition for carries on the Miami roster, is talented and is now under the coaching of Cam Cameron, who’s offense led the NFL in scoring last year, oh, and had the NFL’s leading rusher, Ladanian Tomlinson. The OL is still not expected to be great, but Brown is worth up to a high end RB2 slot so there’s a little value to be had by taking him late in the second. If the Phins do something to improve their line before the start of the season, Brown is an RB1. (I was just looking at the stats on Football Outsiders - the Miami line is 9th best in power situations, Brown's forte anyway, and 10th best in runs over 10 yards. What is killing Brown is getting hit in the backfield. His line is 28th in that category.)
*Carnell Cadillac Williams - Similar to Brown, Caddy hasn't yet lived up to his full potential and Fantasy Nation will hold it against him. He has missed two games each of the last two years and played banged up most of last year. However, the Bucs have improved their offensive line this offseason. He is ranked 20th on Football Guys as of today. He finished the 19th best RB his rookie year though he ranked much worse last year. If he stays healthy (there's your risk) he will easily post his best season behind an improved O line and be worth a mid to high RB2 selection.
*Bombers pointed out the fact that Ronnie and Carnell always seem to be taken too high in our leagues. Well, that's very true, but we also play fantasy football with people who live in Alabama and/or Auburn fans, the alma matter of both backs. Point being - beware the homer effect and don't get caught up taking your favorite players too high.
Yes, I have a list but my rankings are ultimately only as likely as anyone else’s to be accurate by the end of the season. So rather than just throw out a plain old list, I will detail the high risk and high reward players on my radar that I think the fantasy world might miss. My nominees for running back gambles, good and bad, are:
High Risk:
Brian Westbrook – He is ranked way too high this year. For starters, he has never finished a whole season and has missed as many as four games. Second, last year’s rushing total of 1217 is his first over 1000 and his second over 617. Finally, it was week 10 that Westbrook started getting 20 plus carries regularly, coinciding with the loss of McNabb. McNabb is back. You still want Westbrook because the man is a threat, the primary carrier on his team and catches a lot of passes, but because last year was a very explainable abberation, you want him as your RB2, not your RB1
Maurice Jones-Drew – I have a hard time thinking people are really going to draft him as an RB1. Nonetheless, I’ve seen him ranked as high as 9th. Jacksonville paid Fred Taylor millions to return, not the sign of confidence I would like to see if I’m drafting Jones-Drew high. At best, you’re looking at an RBBC situation. At worst, Greg Jones gets some goal line work as the third man in the committee. Jones-Drew is an RB3/RB4 with the prayer he gets the goal line work and enough carries to justify that being picked that high. Don’t be the one who drafts this guy in the first three rounds. Heck, don't draft him. There has got to be either a more consistent, lower risk RB3 or an RB3 with more upside available.
Honorable Mention High Risk:
Reggie Bush – He is a second year back and Deuce McAllister is still on the roster. His rushing and receiving yardage are all over the map. His TD total, (8) is skewed by a 4 TD game against the weak Niners. In short, if you count on him to put up points, you're going to be let down a lot. In a keeper league, yeah, hold on for when Deuce is gone. In a redraft, you’re going to have to get him in an RB1 slot, which if I had to wager on it, I’d say will turn out to be a mistake. Barring injury to Deuce, Bush is a mid-range RB2 at best not because he isn't talanted, but because other backs are in better situations and will be more consistent producers.
Larry Johnson – For reasons I’ve already detailed on this blog, he’s still an RB1, but he’s not going to repeat last year. His YPC and attempts will both drop even if he doesn’t hold out and isn’t traded. Grit your teeth and let him go to the next guy until late in the first round. Then that guy can worry about whether LJ will hold out or even make it through the season.
High Reward:
There are a lot of potential candidates in this category. If you do your homework, it is a good year to consider a top tier QB or WR mid to late in round 2 and roll the dice on running backs in the third and fourth rounds.
Brandon Jacobs – If there’s a Frank Gore this year, it could be Jacobs. The naysayers abound saying that Jacobs is going to split carries and/or get injured. On Football Guys, his composite ranking is 27th. Mark Wimer ranks him 41st. Well Westbrook has some competition for carries and we know he gets injured a lot. But unlike Westbrook, Jacobs is the goal line back. Jacobs is also going to start the season as the primary back and the job is his to lose. Even though I don’t think Jacobs will net 2100 yards from scrimmage like Gore, I still like his chances of being a top 10 back.
Thomas Jones – Did you know that the Jets were seventh in rushing attempts last year? Jones is better than Leon Washington and should be able to stay in on third downs.
Cedric Benson – Did you know the Bears were fifth in rushing attempts last year? I think Adrian Peterson (the other Adrian Peterson) will get some third down work, but Benson gets the lion’s share of the touches and the goal line work.
Honorable Mentions High Reward:
Marshawn Lynch – The rookie is the starter and looks to be used as an all-purpose threat in running and passing situations. He’s still a rookie, though. You can get him as an RB3 and he will probably be worth an RB2.
*Ronnie Brown – Another player with rankings all over the map, I expect most will rank Brown between 15 and 20 on their RB board. However, Brown has no competition for carries on the Miami roster, is talented and is now under the coaching of Cam Cameron, who’s offense led the NFL in scoring last year, oh, and had the NFL’s leading rusher, Ladanian Tomlinson. The OL is still not expected to be great, but Brown is worth up to a high end RB2 slot so there’s a little value to be had by taking him late in the second. If the Phins do something to improve their line before the start of the season, Brown is an RB1. (I was just looking at the stats on Football Outsiders - the Miami line is 9th best in power situations, Brown's forte anyway, and 10th best in runs over 10 yards. What is killing Brown is getting hit in the backfield. His line is 28th in that category.)
*Carnell Cadillac Williams - Similar to Brown, Caddy hasn't yet lived up to his full potential and Fantasy Nation will hold it against him. He has missed two games each of the last two years and played banged up most of last year. However, the Bucs have improved their offensive line this offseason. He is ranked 20th on Football Guys as of today. He finished the 19th best RB his rookie year though he ranked much worse last year. If he stays healthy (there's your risk) he will easily post his best season behind an improved O line and be worth a mid to high RB2 selection.
*Bombers pointed out the fact that Ronnie and Carnell always seem to be taken too high in our leagues. Well, that's very true, but we also play fantasy football with people who live in Alabama and/or Auburn fans, the alma matter of both backs. Point being - beware the homer effect and don't get caught up taking your favorite players too high.
Monday, June 25, 2007
Winning Fantasy Football - Draft Strategy
This is the first of a 10 part series exposing my secrets of drafting in Fantasy Football. This will lead up to the draft window prior to the opening game on Sep 1. Six years ago I had no idea what FF was. In my first season I won the league championship. A rookie, no less. The first five years in that league I won twice. I made the playoffs four of five years. The other league I am in is only two years old. I have won the league both years. The guys are always wondering how I do it. In 10 weeks you will know.
Part 1
Running Backs:
RB is the most talked about position in FF. It gets beaten to death. I don’t have much to add. I’ll leave that for the other guys. But my two cents - Don’t be afraid to play rookies. One year vets are better, but truly good rookies on a decent team will give you decent yards and fantasy points. They are far better than name players that are heading out the door.
Part 1
Running Backs:
RB is the most talked about position in FF. It gets beaten to death. I don’t have much to add. I’ll leave that for the other guys. But my two cents - Don’t be afraid to play rookies. One year vets are better, but truly good rookies on a decent team will give you decent yards and fantasy points. They are far better than name players that are heading out the door.
Is Frank Gore A 1 Hit Wonder?
Will Frank Gore exceed last year's totals or will he become a 1 hit wonder?
Gore should easily exceed last year's fantasy totals and should end up in the top 3 or 4 among running backs. He still possesses a solid offensive line which believes in Gore's ability. The addition of Darrell Jackson, a healthy Vernon Davis and another year under the belt of Alex Smith should all be factors in the 49ers moving the ball into the redzone more often.
Last year after a fumble on the 1 yard line which resulted in a Philadelphia recovery for a 99 yard touchdown, Gore was removed from his goal line duties. This relegated Gore to long touchdown runs only, of which he provided a few. However, late in the season when Michael Robinson was stuffed on a fourth and 1 on the St Louis 4 yard line, it became apparent to the players and coaching staff that they needed to win or lose by giving the ball to Gore in all situations. Gore resumed his goal line role the last 3 games and this should continue into next season.
Gore is a hard driving low runner who will excel inside the 5. It may be a tall task for Gore to repeat his 1695 rushing yards from last year with the respect that opponents will give Gore this season, but the increase in goal line chances should boost Gore's TD total from 9 to somewhere between 15 and 18 total and with Gore catching the ball out of the backfield expect around 2,000 all purpose yards. This should be good enough to push Steven Jackson for that number 2 rank behind Ladanian Tomlinson.
Gore should easily exceed last year's fantasy totals and should end up in the top 3 or 4 among running backs. He still possesses a solid offensive line which believes in Gore's ability. The addition of Darrell Jackson, a healthy Vernon Davis and another year under the belt of Alex Smith should all be factors in the 49ers moving the ball into the redzone more often.
Last year after a fumble on the 1 yard line which resulted in a Philadelphia recovery for a 99 yard touchdown, Gore was removed from his goal line duties. This relegated Gore to long touchdown runs only, of which he provided a few. However, late in the season when Michael Robinson was stuffed on a fourth and 1 on the St Louis 4 yard line, it became apparent to the players and coaching staff that they needed to win or lose by giving the ball to Gore in all situations. Gore resumed his goal line role the last 3 games and this should continue into next season.
Gore is a hard driving low runner who will excel inside the 5. It may be a tall task for Gore to repeat his 1695 rushing yards from last year with the respect that opponents will give Gore this season, but the increase in goal line chances should boost Gore's TD total from 9 to somewhere between 15 and 18 total and with Gore catching the ball out of the backfield expect around 2,000 all purpose yards. This should be good enough to push Steven Jackson for that number 2 rank behind Ladanian Tomlinson.
Sunday, June 24, 2007
Tank Johnson, Another Poor Decision Maker
According to the AP, Tank Johnson was arrested again Friday, AT 3:30 AM!
"Police in the Phoenix suburb of Gilbert said Johnson was stopped for driving 40 mph in a 25 mph zone at 3:30 a.m. Friday and the officer made observations that led him to believe Johnson was impaired.
"Sgt. Andrew Duncan, a police spokesman, said Johnson was arrested for "DUI Impaired to the Slightest Degree" but was released without being booked or charged."
The article said he was cooperative, at least, and unlike a certain Dolphins tackle, didn't have to be Tasered twice after allegedly biting an officer. But then Tank was in trouble for having guns in his house WHILE on probation for a gun charge. However, like a certain CB for Tennessee, Tank's posse has been involved in shootouts, albeit Tank's bodyguard actually died in December from that incident - TWO DAYS AFTER police raided his house and found the guns that he shouldn't have had because he was on probation, at a NIGHTCLUB, AFTER MIDNIGHT.
"Police in the Phoenix suburb of Gilbert said Johnson was stopped for driving 40 mph in a 25 mph zone at 3:30 a.m. Friday and the officer made observations that led him to believe Johnson was impaired.
"Sgt. Andrew Duncan, a police spokesman, said Johnson was arrested for "DUI Impaired to the Slightest Degree" but was released without being booked or charged."
The article said he was cooperative, at least, and unlike a certain Dolphins tackle, didn't have to be Tasered twice after allegedly biting an officer. But then Tank was in trouble for having guns in his house WHILE on probation for a gun charge. However, like a certain CB for Tennessee, Tank's posse has been involved in shootouts, albeit Tank's bodyguard actually died in December from that incident - TWO DAYS AFTER police raided his house and found the guns that he shouldn't have had because he was on probation, at a NIGHTCLUB, AFTER MIDNIGHT.
Dophin Arrested -'Early Saturday Morning'
Fred Evans played in exactly one game last year and had 'a long way to go' according to Cam Cameron. Translation: zero fantasy relevance. I just figured I'd report one more Bad Player being arrested after midnight.
Friday, June 22, 2007
Pacman: "I'll Kill All Y'all"
Some of the alleged details of the latest strip club shooting by Pacman's posse have been published in the Atlanta Urinal and Constipation. Mr. Goodell, can we ban this man from the league before Al Davis offers him a contract, please?
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Thursday, June 21, 2007
Larry Johnson Knows The End Is Near
From the Kansas City Star:
OK, are you prepared for a long holdout?
“I’m prepared,” Johnson said matter-of-factly. “They (my agent and father) got me saving money. I’m hustling to get more money to put in the bank. They already started setting aside different accounts, if that would have to happen. They’re already telling me to be cautious about how I spend, where I go and stuff like that. To make sure that if it goes down like that, then I’ve got to be able to pace myself so I won’t be in trouble.”
There was much to discuss. Larry is on the books to make $1.7 million this season, a paltry sum for a fifth-year player with his resume. Speculation has centered on Johnson seeking a contract that falls between the deals given LaDainian Tomlinson ($21 million in guarantees) and Peyton Manning ($35 million in guarantees).
LJ knows the time may never be better to ask for a fat contract. Not only did he rush for the second most yards and TDs last year (Behind LT, interestingly enough. How can you demand more $ than a better player? Anyway...) but KC should know they need to count on someone while Brodie 'Sack Puppet' Croyle learns how to be a starting QB. There is also the fact that his LT left last year, bringing his YPC down to 4.3 from 5.2 the year before AND his LG has retired this year. His YPC might dip into the high 3s while his touches go down. Preseason coachspeak has LJ getting 100 fewer carries.
Most importantly, LJ might be aware of the trend of RBs that exceed 370 rushes. In short, they fall apart the next year. Backs from Eric Dickerson and Terrell Davis to Ricky Williams and Jamal Anderson can attest to this trend. Most miss four or more games the following year and all had fewer carries. The only exception is Eric Dickerson in '83 and '84, though Dickerson fell prey to the trend in '86 and '87. I'll thank Doug Farrar and his article in my shiny new Beckett Fantasy magazine for this data.
The Mustard: From hold out threats, to the coaches saying they're going to spell him, to the statistical probability that Larry Johnson will miss games and certainly suffer loss of production, you simply have to lower his fantasy value and you might want to consider trading him if you're in a keeper league. You can't not pick him if he falls to about 5th or 6th, but feel comfortable taking LT, Steven Jackson and Frank Gore first. Good luck figuring out who to draft in the four spot, I might have to go with Shaun Alexander, although there are backs out there with more upside.
OK, are you prepared for a long holdout?
“I’m prepared,” Johnson said matter-of-factly. “They (my agent and father) got me saving money. I’m hustling to get more money to put in the bank. They already started setting aside different accounts, if that would have to happen. They’re already telling me to be cautious about how I spend, where I go and stuff like that. To make sure that if it goes down like that, then I’ve got to be able to pace myself so I won’t be in trouble.”
There was much to discuss. Larry is on the books to make $1.7 million this season, a paltry sum for a fifth-year player with his resume. Speculation has centered on Johnson seeking a contract that falls between the deals given LaDainian Tomlinson ($21 million in guarantees) and Peyton Manning ($35 million in guarantees).
LJ knows the time may never be better to ask for a fat contract. Not only did he rush for the second most yards and TDs last year (Behind LT, interestingly enough. How can you demand more $ than a better player? Anyway...) but KC should know they need to count on someone while Brodie 'Sack Puppet' Croyle learns how to be a starting QB. There is also the fact that his LT left last year, bringing his YPC down to 4.3 from 5.2 the year before AND his LG has retired this year. His YPC might dip into the high 3s while his touches go down. Preseason coachspeak has LJ getting 100 fewer carries.
Most importantly, LJ might be aware of the trend of RBs that exceed 370 rushes. In short, they fall apart the next year. Backs from Eric Dickerson and Terrell Davis to Ricky Williams and Jamal Anderson can attest to this trend. Most miss four or more games the following year and all had fewer carries. The only exception is Eric Dickerson in '83 and '84, though Dickerson fell prey to the trend in '86 and '87. I'll thank Doug Farrar and his article in my shiny new Beckett Fantasy magazine for this data.
The Mustard: From hold out threats, to the coaches saying they're going to spell him, to the statistical probability that Larry Johnson will miss games and certainly suffer loss of production, you simply have to lower his fantasy value and you might want to consider trading him if you're in a keeper league. You can't not pick him if he falls to about 5th or 6th, but feel comfortable taking LT, Steven Jackson and Frank Gore first. Good luck figuring out who to draft in the four spot, I might have to go with Shaun Alexander, although there are backs out there with more upside.
Jason Campbell
I'm seeing and hearing good things about Jason Campbell in Washington. The man is obviously not as big a star as Jay Cutler or Matt Leinart, but the young QB is earning the respect of his team.
Portis reportedly said he'd never seen a player grow as much in one year. I saw an interview with Chris Cooley on NFL Today where he was heaping praise on his QB. Remember last year, I think it was Campbell's first game under center as starter and there was a play for a TD with the clock ticking. After the game, we learned the headset in his helmet was out and he called the play on the fly, under pressure.
The Mustard: You can worse for a QB2 than Jason Campbell. He's liked by his teammates. As long as he's growing, the coaches have an incentive to let the first round pick play. There's not any competition on the roster. He has a seven game streak of TDs - current longest active streak, actually. When the doodoo hit the fan last year on my QB front on one team I plugged Campbell in. He didn't win me any games all by himself, but he didn't lose them for me either. Although I have a lot of other QBs projected higher, I expect Campbell will be a consistent producer, if not a stellar one.
Cooley is worth a pick as TE1. His routes are improving and his rapport with Campbell, who liked to target the TE, is apparently good. I was hoping he would fly under the radar, but Football Guys have him 7th and Beckett's Fantasy football mag has him in Tier 2 (Tier 1 consists entirely of Antonio Gates - hard to argue with that.)
And while we're on the Redskins, go look at the stats for Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts. Betts has a much higher YPC at 4.7 compared to 4.1. If you draft Portis, you had better grab Betts. I would expect at least an RBBC by the end of year and wouldn't be surprised to see it immediately. If that happens, Betts may end up with the lion's share of the carries and receptions out of the backfield.
Portis reportedly said he'd never seen a player grow as much in one year. I saw an interview with Chris Cooley on NFL Today where he was heaping praise on his QB. Remember last year, I think it was Campbell's first game under center as starter and there was a play for a TD with the clock ticking. After the game, we learned the headset in his helmet was out and he called the play on the fly, under pressure.
The Mustard: You can worse for a QB2 than Jason Campbell. He's liked by his teammates. As long as he's growing, the coaches have an incentive to let the first round pick play. There's not any competition on the roster. He has a seven game streak of TDs - current longest active streak, actually. When the doodoo hit the fan last year on my QB front on one team I plugged Campbell in. He didn't win me any games all by himself, but he didn't lose them for me either. Although I have a lot of other QBs projected higher, I expect Campbell will be a consistent producer, if not a stellar one.
Cooley is worth a pick as TE1. His routes are improving and his rapport with Campbell, who liked to target the TE, is apparently good. I was hoping he would fly under the radar, but Football Guys have him 7th and Beckett's Fantasy football mag has him in Tier 2 (Tier 1 consists entirely of Antonio Gates - hard to argue with that.)
And while we're on the Redskins, go look at the stats for Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts. Betts has a much higher YPC at 4.7 compared to 4.1. If you draft Portis, you had better grab Betts. I would expect at least an RBBC by the end of year and wouldn't be surprised to see it immediately. If that happens, Betts may end up with the lion's share of the carries and receptions out of the backfield.
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
Value Based Drafting
I discovered Football Guys a couple of years ago and consider it a better site than the corporate offerings. One of the site's claims to fame is its promotion of a concept called Value Based Drafting, VBD.
Maurile Tremblay sums it up nicely:
Consider, for simplicity, a two-team fantasy league with a universe of four eligible players: WR Roy Williams, WR Terry Glenn, TE Antonio Gates, and TE Jason Witten. Each team must start one wide receiver and one tight end, and the league championship is determined by total points.
The four players scored the following numbers of fantasy points last year based on their 2006 stats:
* WR Roy Williams - 255
* TE Antonio Gates - 217
* WR Terry Glenn - 212
* TE Jason Witten - 145
If you had the first pick in the draft last year, knowing ahead of time how many fantasy points each player would score, whom would you have selected?
The correct answer is not Roy Williams, but Antonio Gates. Even though Williams scored more points, Gates was more valuable. In fact, whichever team had Gates was guaranteed to win the league. Gates plus either wide receiver outscored the opposing WR-TE pair. The reason is that Gates outscored Witten by a greater amount than Williams outscored Glenn.
I've tried using their application for creating a VBD list, but in the end, I reasoned that seasoned fantasy footballers generally do this by instinct. You're not really going to take Maurice Jones Drew in the second round if Peyton Manning is still on the board, are you? Yeah, yeah, Stud RB Theory, but Rudi Johnson, Peyton Manning and Marion Barber is tons better than Rudi Johnson, Jones-Drew and Matt Hasselbeck (why do I pick on him so much?)
The monkey wrench is what the other players in your league do. I have a shiny new Becket Fantasy Football magazine and their mock draft had Tom Brady available in the fourth round. In the redrafts I have played in, there always seems to be a run on the top four or five QBs starting as soon as someone takes Manning. I don't see Brady in round four in that case this year.
Who was it that said no plan survives contact with the enemy?
There is value in considering the premises of VBD, however. For example, I started taking risks on TEs as early as the third round in the last few years because while I was sure I could get a 1000 yard receiver in round 4 and probably off the wire during the season, there are only a handful of elite TEs. Having one sets you apart.
The Golden Geezer has a series of draft strategy articles that he should start posting soon. I'm looking forward to them.
Maurile Tremblay sums it up nicely:
Consider, for simplicity, a two-team fantasy league with a universe of four eligible players: WR Roy Williams, WR Terry Glenn, TE Antonio Gates, and TE Jason Witten. Each team must start one wide receiver and one tight end, and the league championship is determined by total points.
The four players scored the following numbers of fantasy points last year based on their 2006 stats:
* WR Roy Williams - 255
* TE Antonio Gates - 217
* WR Terry Glenn - 212
* TE Jason Witten - 145
If you had the first pick in the draft last year, knowing ahead of time how many fantasy points each player would score, whom would you have selected?
The correct answer is not Roy Williams, but Antonio Gates. Even though Williams scored more points, Gates was more valuable. In fact, whichever team had Gates was guaranteed to win the league. Gates plus either wide receiver outscored the opposing WR-TE pair. The reason is that Gates outscored Witten by a greater amount than Williams outscored Glenn.
I've tried using their application for creating a VBD list, but in the end, I reasoned that seasoned fantasy footballers generally do this by instinct. You're not really going to take Maurice Jones Drew in the second round if Peyton Manning is still on the board, are you? Yeah, yeah, Stud RB Theory, but Rudi Johnson, Peyton Manning and Marion Barber is tons better than Rudi Johnson, Jones-Drew and Matt Hasselbeck (why do I pick on him so much?)
The monkey wrench is what the other players in your league do. I have a shiny new Becket Fantasy Football magazine and their mock draft had Tom Brady available in the fourth round. In the redrafts I have played in, there always seems to be a run on the top four or five QBs starting as soon as someone takes Manning. I don't see Brady in round four in that case this year.
Who was it that said no plan survives contact with the enemy?
There is value in considering the premises of VBD, however. For example, I started taking risks on TEs as early as the third round in the last few years because while I was sure I could get a 1000 yard receiver in round 4 and probably off the wire during the season, there are only a handful of elite TEs. Having one sets you apart.
The Golden Geezer has a series of draft strategy articles that he should start posting soon. I'm looking forward to them.
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
In Depth - Frank Gore
Will Frank Gore repeat last year? His YPC last year was an obscene 5.4. Better yet, there’s not anyone on the roster to really challenge him for carries of any variety. He catches. He runs. His OL is graded an A for run blocking by footballoutsiders. He plays a lot of weak defenses. There is reason to be pessimistic if you really want to be pessimistic, however.
The Niners promoted QB coach Jim Hostler to OC after Mike McCarthy moved to Green Bay as head ball coach. Hostler has multiple gigs on his resume as QB coach and WR coach but no OC experience. Head coach Mike Nolan is a defensive guy, so the offense is in the relatively inexperienced, QB-centered Hostler’s hands.
The Niners were 30th in passing attempts last year for Alex Smith’s first full season but the team will certainly start opening things up for Smith in his second year. In fact, they picked up Darrell Jackson and Ashley Lelie and while neither are elite, both are capable of 1000 yards. TE Vernon Davis has to justify his lofty draft status and show up on possession downs and red zone plays, too.
The Mustard: Gore is still worthy of being the number three overall fantasy RB, but he will lose carries. He will certainly get more TDs, but may not get more than 12 to 15 with Vernon Davis stepping up and the new OC mixing in more passes. That should be offset by more receptions and defenses that have to pay more attention to the pass. Has anyone ever had a 6 YPC average as the feature back?
The Niners promoted QB coach Jim Hostler to OC after Mike McCarthy moved to Green Bay as head ball coach. Hostler has multiple gigs on his resume as QB coach and WR coach but no OC experience. Head coach Mike Nolan is a defensive guy, so the offense is in the relatively inexperienced, QB-centered Hostler’s hands.
The Niners were 30th in passing attempts last year for Alex Smith’s first full season but the team will certainly start opening things up for Smith in his second year. In fact, they picked up Darrell Jackson and Ashley Lelie and while neither are elite, both are capable of 1000 yards. TE Vernon Davis has to justify his lofty draft status and show up on possession downs and red zone plays, too.
The Mustard: Gore is still worthy of being the number three overall fantasy RB, but he will lose carries. He will certainly get more TDs, but may not get more than 12 to 15 with Vernon Davis stepping up and the new OC mixing in more passes. That should be offset by more receptions and defenses that have to pay more attention to the pass. Has anyone ever had a 6 YPC average as the feature back?
Monday, June 18, 2007
Bad Player, Packer Edition
Again, 2 a.m., nightclub called 'Wet'. Players need a curfew.
Green Bay Packers linebacker Nick Barnett was arrested early Sunday after a disturbance at a nightclub.
Police said in a statement that Barnett was taken into custody for battery after allegedly being involved in a physical altercation about 2 a.m. at the Wet. He was taken to Outagamie County Jail in Appleton and released within an hour after posting a $500 cash bond.
Green Bay Packers linebacker Nick Barnett was arrested early Sunday after a disturbance at a nightclub.
Police said in a statement that Barnett was taken into custody for battery after allegedly being involved in a physical altercation about 2 a.m. at the Wet. He was taken to Outagamie County Jail in Appleton and released within an hour after posting a $500 cash bond.
Oakland Raiders - Pansies
"The union has complained about the high level of intensity, player aggressiveness and fast pace of our practices and, as a result, has taken away the final week of our offseason program," said Kiffin, the NFL's youngest and least experienced head coach.
No comment necessary.
No comment necessary.
Nick Saban Hate, PacMan Meltdown
I've been out in the country for a weekend, but on return to reality Monday morning, I slogged through my e-mail, completed the necessary tasks and cruised a couple important sites during my break.
I found a link to this article from Saban, who is apparently the newer, snappier Martha Stewart. Take heart Bama fans, they don't hate Tommy Tuberville with this much creativity. It's a sign of respect. Really.
Add this to the respect pile from Danny Ford Is God dot blogspot dot com.
Oh, and Pacman, you, sir, make really poor decisions. At a strip club, at 4 a.m. and your posse shoots up a car. Okay, maybe the police say (as of now, stay tuned) you weren't around when the shots were fired, but 4 A.M., STRIP CLUB, YOUR POSSE. Dude, come on!
I found a link to this article from Saban, who is apparently the newer, snappier Martha Stewart. Take heart Bama fans, they don't hate Tommy Tuberville with this much creativity. It's a sign of respect. Really.
Add this to the respect pile from Danny Ford Is God dot blogspot dot com.
Oh, and Pacman, you, sir, make really poor decisions. At a strip club, at 4 a.m. and your posse shoots up a car. Okay, maybe the police say (as of now, stay tuned) you weren't around when the shots were fired, but 4 A.M., STRIP CLUB, YOUR POSSE. Dude, come on!
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Rex Grossman, better than Hasselbeck?
I am forecasting the QBs currently. It's not a precise science because who knows how many yards to add to or subtract from a QB's projected stats if he loses his stud LT, for example, but it's obvious you should lower his projections by some amount. (Alas, poor Eli, we knew thee somewhat well. 'Tis a shame thy club forceth thee to play without Luke Petitgout.)
One surprise: Rex Grossman will have a better statistical year than Matt Hasselbeck.
Hasselbeck is still getting credit for 2003, I believe. I've seen him ranked in the preseason top 10 more than once already, which is ridiculous. His highest TD total is 26 in 2003, then 24 in 2005, then 22 in 2004 then 18 (last year). He would have thrown 24 TDs if he kept pace over a healthy 16 games last year (and had his highest INT total at 20).
Barring an outlying year happening again, 24 TDs is the best you can expect from Hasselbeck. His yardage totals hover around 3400. He loses Darrell Jackson and Jerramy Stevens and replaces them with Deion 'never had a 1000 yard season' Branch and Marcus '35 year old' Pollard who lost his starting job last year in Detroit! To Dan Campbell? I think 3300 and 22 TDs is a generous forecast for Hasselbeck.
Rex Grossman, in his first full year as starter, threw 3200 yards and 23 TDs with 20 INTs. They're working on the youngster's mechanics to reduce INTs and boost receptions - in short, he's maturing. He returns his WRs and TE (Desmond Clark had 626 yards and 6 TDs last year for you value hawks out there.) and has a shiny new first round TE from Miami to try out. 3400 yards and 24 TDs with a lower INT total is not at all unreasonable for Grossman to acheive. That puts him 14 fantasy points ahead of Hasselbeck.
The Mustard: Don't get too excited about Grossman as your secret weapon on draft day. He'll still have a couple abysmal games. He had four games with no TDs and three or four INTs last year. Four. But overall his performances should start to be more consistent. He's a bit of a gamble, but has upside and is definitely worth a QB2 slot in the hopes he suddenly becomes QB1 material next year.
As for Hasselbeck, pump him up to the rest of your league, forward the lists that have him in the top 10 and let them take a middle-of-the-road QB too high on draft day. You want him as QB2 - a secure reserve to fall back on in case your stud goes down.
Eli Manning... well, he's losing Tiki, they're moving a guard over to left tackle and we haven't exactly seen him persevere through adversity yet. I'm probably not drafting him. I wonder who he'll be playing for next year.
Oh, and don't be too sure that Desmond Clark will be a draft day steal. The Bears grabbed Miami TE Greg Olsen in the first round draft this year.
One surprise: Rex Grossman will have a better statistical year than Matt Hasselbeck.
Hasselbeck is still getting credit for 2003, I believe. I've seen him ranked in the preseason top 10 more than once already, which is ridiculous. His highest TD total is 26 in 2003, then 24 in 2005, then 22 in 2004 then 18 (last year). He would have thrown 24 TDs if he kept pace over a healthy 16 games last year (and had his highest INT total at 20).
Barring an outlying year happening again, 24 TDs is the best you can expect from Hasselbeck. His yardage totals hover around 3400. He loses Darrell Jackson and Jerramy Stevens and replaces them with Deion 'never had a 1000 yard season' Branch and Marcus '35 year old' Pollard who lost his starting job last year in Detroit! To Dan Campbell? I think 3300 and 22 TDs is a generous forecast for Hasselbeck.
Rex Grossman, in his first full year as starter, threw 3200 yards and 23 TDs with 20 INTs. They're working on the youngster's mechanics to reduce INTs and boost receptions - in short, he's maturing. He returns his WRs and TE (Desmond Clark had 626 yards and 6 TDs last year for you value hawks out there.) and has a shiny new first round TE from Miami to try out. 3400 yards and 24 TDs with a lower INT total is not at all unreasonable for Grossman to acheive. That puts him 14 fantasy points ahead of Hasselbeck.
The Mustard: Don't get too excited about Grossman as your secret weapon on draft day. He'll still have a couple abysmal games. He had four games with no TDs and three or four INTs last year. Four. But overall his performances should start to be more consistent. He's a bit of a gamble, but has upside and is definitely worth a QB2 slot in the hopes he suddenly becomes QB1 material next year.
As for Hasselbeck, pump him up to the rest of your league, forward the lists that have him in the top 10 and let them take a middle-of-the-road QB too high on draft day. You want him as QB2 - a secure reserve to fall back on in case your stud goes down.
Eli Manning... well, he's losing Tiki, they're moving a guard over to left tackle and we haven't exactly seen him persevere through adversity yet. I'm probably not drafting him. I wonder who he'll be playing for next year.
Oh, and don't be too sure that Desmond Clark will be a draft day steal. The Bears grabbed Miami TE Greg Olsen in the first round draft this year.
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Alas, UAT is the butt of another joke or two
I hear Jay Leno compared the Albanians' incredibly exuberant welcome of George Bush to the Alabama fan base's incredibly exuberant welcome of Nick Saban. (I wonder if there was a Collette in the crowd in Albania screaming, "We ballin, baby" to Bush and then being arrested for DUI upon leaving the scene...) Somehow, Bama fans are saying it is a source of pride to be mentioned by Leno and that Auburn fans are really jealous. Nothing is as funny as delusional people who can't see their own delusion.
Which brings me to the second joke. Gamespot's Brian Ekberg reviewed NCAA 08 Football from EA Sports and included this gem when discussing the ability to save game footage:
"Do you know an annoying Alabama fan who has conveniently developed amnesia since your Auburn Tigers wiped the floor with them two weeks prior?"
Which brings me to the second joke. Gamespot's Brian Ekberg reviewed NCAA 08 Football from EA Sports and included this gem when discussing the ability to save game footage:
"Do you know an annoying Alabama fan who has conveniently developed amnesia since your Auburn Tigers wiped the floor with them two weeks prior?"
Monday, June 11, 2007
Shaun Rogers, DET DT being investigated
The fantasy relevance of Detroit DT Shaun Rogers being investigated for groping a stripper is minimal - even if he is one of the team's better players. Who was really counting on the Detroit defense to win them a championship, anyway?
What strikes me is 1) it happened at 1:15 a.m. and 2) it was a strip club.
NFL players should have a curfew and be banned from strip clubs. I don't have a rundown of just how many NFL players get in trouble after midnight or at a strip club, or both, but it seems to me to be a lot.
Pacman's posse shot up a strip joint at 5 a.m., resulting in a paralyzed security guard. (What were those silly strippers doing picking up Jones' money anyway? It's not like they work for tips. Oh, they do? What was Pacman doing throwing $81,000 in singles around a strip club if he wanted to keep it?)
Athlete + strip club + after midnight = trouble.
What strikes me is 1) it happened at 1:15 a.m. and 2) it was a strip club.
NFL players should have a curfew and be banned from strip clubs. I don't have a rundown of just how many NFL players get in trouble after midnight or at a strip club, or both, but it seems to me to be a lot.
Pacman's posse shot up a strip joint at 5 a.m., resulting in a paralyzed security guard. (What were those silly strippers doing picking up Jones' money anyway? It's not like they work for tips. Oh, they do? What was Pacman doing throwing $81,000 in singles around a strip club if he wanted to keep it?)
Athlete + strip club + after midnight = trouble.
Culpepper Countdown
The developments in Miami, not the least of which include telling the man during a team meeting that he won't be allowed to participate in team drills, cement the eventual release/trade of Culpepper.
So where might he end up? The pundits pretty much agree that while Culpepper thinks of himself as an elite QB, not many clubs do anymore. He's older, less mobile and his best stats were always from chucking it deep to Moss. So where is a good situation for him? I dunno.
He might have a chance to start at a few places: Baltimore - McNair is no worldbeater, and he's older; Cleveland - do they really want to go to war with Frye while Quinn holds out/gets 'groomed' for 'the future'; and Minnesota - Tarvaris Jackson, 475 yards, 2 TDs, 4 INTs (lifetime) is the current starter.
I'm not buying any crazytalk about Culpepper to KC or Jacksonville - both clubs have two QBs on the roster that can play and one they have already indicated they want to start. Adding Culpepper muddies the waters.
For a good controversy, though... What about the Jets or the Giants?
So where might he end up? The pundits pretty much agree that while Culpepper thinks of himself as an elite QB, not many clubs do anymore. He's older, less mobile and his best stats were always from chucking it deep to Moss. So where is a good situation for him? I dunno.
He might have a chance to start at a few places: Baltimore - McNair is no worldbeater, and he's older; Cleveland - do they really want to go to war with Frye while Quinn holds out/gets 'groomed' for 'the future'; and Minnesota - Tarvaris Jackson, 475 yards, 2 TDs, 4 INTs (lifetime) is the current starter.
I'm not buying any crazytalk about Culpepper to KC or Jacksonville - both clubs have two QBs on the roster that can play and one they have already indicated they want to start. Adding Culpepper muddies the waters.
For a good controversy, though... What about the Jets or the Giants?
Thursday, June 7, 2007
Los Federales Pursue Ron Mexico
The feds, who were working with Surry County prosecuters in the dog fighting investigation on Mike Vick's property, have apparently told the part-time DA Gerald Poindexter to take a powder by executing their own search warrant at the property.Poindexter responded:
"What is foreign to me is the federal government getting into a dogfighting case," Poindexter said. "I know it's been done, but what's driving this? Is it this boy's celebrity? Would they have done this if it wasn't Michael Vick?"
and
"There's a larger thing here, and it has nothing to do with any breach of protocol," Poindexter said. "There's something awful going on here. I don't know if it's racial. I don't know what it is." (both from Feds Search Michael Vick's Property, AP article by Hank Kurz Jr.)
Awww... did Poindexter get his wittle feewins hurt? And why is he referring to Vick as "boy" and playing the race card in defense of the man he was supposed to be investigating? Hmm.
The big news is that if the feds are involved, they're probably looking to make a much larger case than just busting Vick's cousins and perhaps a local or two. If they can firmly tie Vick to something, will they be able to get other NFL or NBA athletes rumored to be part of a dog fighting sub culture?
The Mustard on Vick at this time is stricly late round/low dollar play. I got him for a buck in an auction league last year. I don't see him going for much more now. If you can pair him with a solid QB that has an early open date you should do well in the bye week for very little cost. (Drew Brees has a week 4 bye. Phillip Rivers, Carson Palmer and Chunky McNabb have week 5 off.) If he actually avoids the Goodell hammer this season, you have a potential spot play in good matchups and trade bait.
The Jake Award
During the NFL season I write a little something I call 'The Jake Award'. It gives a little insight to some of the goings on in the league each week. I hope you enjoy it. Here is a sample from 2005:
Jake Rides Again!
Note to all NFL teams.....If somehow you end up with the first pick in the draft.....DECLINE! Whew! Was Alex Smith stinky. By midway through the 3rd quarter he had thrown 3 interceptions. No problem, a prolific QB named Manning had 3 in his first start too. But A. Smith did him one better and threw a 4th. Does that mean he will have a better career? Hang on to your money (doubtful). In truely Jake-esk fashion, he was 9 for 23 for 74 yards. An average of 3.2 per pass. At one point, A. Smith's QB rating was 4.4 (four point four). Just plain nasty. Someone take out the trash.
Jake Rides Again!
Note to all NFL teams.....If somehow you end up with the first pick in the draft.....DECLINE! Whew! Was Alex Smith stinky. By midway through the 3rd quarter he had thrown 3 interceptions. No problem, a prolific QB named Manning had 3 in his first start too. But A. Smith did him one better and threw a 4th. Does that mean he will have a better career? Hang on to your money (doubtful). In truely Jake-esk fashion, he was 9 for 23 for 74 yards. An average of 3.2 per pass. At one point, A. Smith's QB rating was 4.4 (four point four). Just plain nasty. Someone take out the trash.
Stanley's Cup
The 2006-2007 NHL season has blissfully come to an end. Those who fell asleep (I don’t blame you, when we had to wait a week for the finals to begin) should know that a left coast team won. The (Mighty) Ducks of Anaheim won in convincing fashion. No matter that Emery kicked in the winning goal. By the way, goals like that should not be credited to an offensive player. Either give the opposing goalie the credit or do as they do in soccer and call it an ‘own goal’. Giving a guy credit when he never even touched the puck lessens the credibility of goal stats. I’m sure Danny Heatley was not happy that some one got credit when he has to work so hard to score.
The chants of EMERY EMERY EMERY !!! filled the Honda Center last night after each goal allowed by Ottawa. It wasn’t just Emery, however, even though he let in some softies. The Sens were clearly not in to it last night. The offense applied a paltry 13 shots and when they needed to step up trailing by two going into the 3rd period, they took two needless penalties which killed any chance of a comeback.
During the regular season I thought two west coast teams dominated. The Ducks and the Sharks. The constant pressure, the team speed and size eventually took the Sens out of their game. The outcome really wasn’t in doubt.
So, congrats to the victors, and 4 months of mourning for all Canucks. Again.
The chants of EMERY EMERY EMERY !!! filled the Honda Center last night after each goal allowed by Ottawa. It wasn’t just Emery, however, even though he let in some softies. The Sens were clearly not in to it last night. The offense applied a paltry 13 shots and when they needed to step up trailing by two going into the 3rd period, they took two needless penalties which killed any chance of a comeback.
During the regular season I thought two west coast teams dominated. The Ducks and the Sharks. The constant pressure, the team speed and size eventually took the Sens out of their game. The outcome really wasn’t in doubt.
So, congrats to the victors, and 4 months of mourning for all Canucks. Again.
How The SEC thinks it stacks up
Hey, look, Savior St. Nick Saban has already moved the UAT Crimson Tahd above the Mississippi schools in the SEC respect column!
Took me a few minutes to figure it out, but the columns 1-11 are the rankings and the number for a school in the column is how many SIDs ranked the school in that position. For example, five SIDs thought AU was the second best football team, five though AU was the third best team, etc.
Any surprises?
Took me a few minutes to figure it out, but the columns 1-11 are the rankings and the number for a school in the column is how many SIDs ranked the school in that position. For example, five SIDs thought AU was the second best football team, five though AU was the third best team, etc.
Any surprises?
Wednesday, June 6, 2007
Rudi Johnson, underappreciated Iron Man
Rudi Johnson, underappreciated when he played in college and still underappreciated in the NFL is an iron man. There's a nice article on Bengals.com that details just how much he runs the ball. In the last four years, his peers are LT, Edge and Tiki. In fact, he's number one in attempts over that span. I don't think he's missed a game either and I know he has played through pain and injuries a couple of those years.
That said, of that list, he's fourth in yards gained. So he runs a lot, but doesn't have as much to show from it. Part of the reason is he apparently just doesn't have the speed to break big runs often enough. This is why the last couple years people have been hearing "Chris Perry will cut into Rudi's carries" rumors. Well, Perry ain't cuttin' the mustard.
Kenny Irons will. Irons was a pre-season Heisman watch back at Auburn last year but like the rest of the Tigers, got banged up early and hard and played with problems all year. He went from a first round pick to a second rounder and the Bengals didn't take him in the second to ride the pine. They really do want to spell Rudi and they really do want more of a home run threat.
The Mustard: While he is finally getting the level of respect he has earned, Rudi Johnson's carries will take a significant hit this year. He will probably still break 1000 yards and get the red zone carries for 10 or 12 TDs. Ironically, if Irons does get more carries between twenties and moves the chains well, Rudi could see more goal line attempts. Still, be leary of Rudi and let someone else take him as their number one back unless you get him at a good value. Trade him if you're in a keeper league.
That said, of that list, he's fourth in yards gained. So he runs a lot, but doesn't have as much to show from it. Part of the reason is he apparently just doesn't have the speed to break big runs often enough. This is why the last couple years people have been hearing "Chris Perry will cut into Rudi's carries" rumors. Well, Perry ain't cuttin' the mustard.
Kenny Irons will. Irons was a pre-season Heisman watch back at Auburn last year but like the rest of the Tigers, got banged up early and hard and played with problems all year. He went from a first round pick to a second rounder and the Bengals didn't take him in the second to ride the pine. They really do want to spell Rudi and they really do want more of a home run threat.
The Mustard: While he is finally getting the level of respect he has earned, Rudi Johnson's carries will take a significant hit this year. He will probably still break 1000 yards and get the red zone carries for 10 or 12 TDs. Ironically, if Irons does get more carries between twenties and moves the chains well, Rudi could see more goal line attempts. Still, be leary of Rudi and let someone else take him as their number one back unless you get him at a good value. Trade him if you're in a keeper league.
Greener Fields
Trent Green is now in Miami where it appears the Fins want him to be the starting QB. Until last year, Green had three consecutive 4000 yard seasons to finish second in passing yards each of those years. He did this with, uh, a few warm bodies at wide receiver and a fellow named Gonzalez at TE.
So what will he do in Miami? First, he has to rid himself of the Culpepper spectre and along with the rest of the world I expect the team will cut or trade Culpepper in short order, but I would like to see it before I make Trent Green my fantasy hope for next year. Second, you have to give some of the credit for Green's success to the system. He has had the benefit of an awesome front line and a ton of pass attempts, averaging well over 500 attempts from 2003-2005, ranking him from first to sixth in attempts. Miami doesn't throw the ball as often and their line can't protect near as well as KC's. Chris Chambers and Marty Booker are upgrades over any receivers in KC.
The Mustard: Value Trent Green as a gamble with upside. If your league thinks he is going to throw 4000 yards and 25 TDs, let someone else have him. He might, but there's reasons to suspect he won't - Culpepper, OL, an unknown TE (I'm thinking David Martin), and Cam Cameron's offense, which usually ranks in the low 20s in pass attempts. Oh yeah, there's the little matter of whether he'll be the QB he was before or after he got his bell rung last year.
Culpepper - a gamble. If he lands in the right spot and he's healthy...
Ronnie Brown - He's no LT and his OL is not San Diego's, but Cameron's offense has to have something to do with LT's success. Bump up Ronnie a notch or two.
Chris Chambers and Marty Booker - With Green as an upgrade over anything they've seen in forever, bump them up a notch or two.
So what will he do in Miami? First, he has to rid himself of the Culpepper spectre and along with the rest of the world I expect the team will cut or trade Culpepper in short order, but I would like to see it before I make Trent Green my fantasy hope for next year. Second, you have to give some of the credit for Green's success to the system. He has had the benefit of an awesome front line and a ton of pass attempts, averaging well over 500 attempts from 2003-2005, ranking him from first to sixth in attempts. Miami doesn't throw the ball as often and their line can't protect near as well as KC's. Chris Chambers and Marty Booker are upgrades over any receivers in KC.
The Mustard: Value Trent Green as a gamble with upside. If your league thinks he is going to throw 4000 yards and 25 TDs, let someone else have him. He might, but there's reasons to suspect he won't - Culpepper, OL, an unknown TE (I'm thinking David Martin), and Cam Cameron's offense, which usually ranks in the low 20s in pass attempts. Oh yeah, there's the little matter of whether he'll be the QB he was before or after he got his bell rung last year.
Culpepper - a gamble. If he lands in the right spot and he's healthy...
Ronnie Brown - He's no LT and his OL is not San Diego's, but Cameron's offense has to have something to do with LT's success. Bump up Ronnie a notch or two.
Chris Chambers and Marty Booker - With Green as an upgrade over anything they've seen in forever, bump them up a notch or two.
Tuesday, June 5, 2007
Player trends
Willis McGahee down - Mcgahee is one of the leagues top running backs according to ... well Willis Mcgahee. But on careful observation one must note that he is a running back always looking for the homerun and does not like to run hard inside. Last year's Bills offensive line was no world beater but Mcgahee must share some responsibility in that paltry 3.4 YPC. He may not be that great inside the 5 in his new Baltimore home which means a decrease in TDs.
Peyton Manning - up - No matter how you cut or slice it he is just better and never misses games. You are always in the hunt for a title when this guy is on roster.
Ladanian Tomlinson - up - See Peyton above. Also, that offensive line is still in tact from last year and there is no reason, other than superstition to doubt that he cannot duplicate last year.
Frank Gore up - It is just very difficult to find running backs that are good in all phases of the game and is still young and hungry. He wants 2000 yards rushing this year. He has surprised before already.
Marshawn Lynch up - I love talented rookie or young first year starter running backs. They often outproduce their overpriced counterparts and usually come at a bargain price because people are afraid to step out on a limb. He was known for 2 things in college: Being a very hard runner, and being an excellent receiver. This bodes well for his goal line chances and extra receiving yards making him an all purpose threat. That offensive line has been overhauled also and JP Losman should be better in his second full season as a starter.
Vick down - One more incident and he may not be around and he will have less opportunity to run in the new offensive scheme. This means his points will rely much more on TD tosses. - ouch.
Steve Smith down - I am sold on Smith having a great bounce back year but there is just not enough separation in stastical output of receivers to justify the kind of money he would demand when money can be better spent on young and unheralded players such as Marquis Colston, Lee Evans, and Vincent Jackson, who can produce similar numbers. The extra money could then be spent on a top tier running back.
Vince Young down - He just will not have enough help on this team and defenses will eventually find a way to contain him and force him to stay in the pocket to beat them.
Peyton Manning - up - No matter how you cut or slice it he is just better and never misses games. You are always in the hunt for a title when this guy is on roster.
Ladanian Tomlinson - up - See Peyton above. Also, that offensive line is still in tact from last year and there is no reason, other than superstition to doubt that he cannot duplicate last year.
Frank Gore up - It is just very difficult to find running backs that are good in all phases of the game and is still young and hungry. He wants 2000 yards rushing this year. He has surprised before already.
Marshawn Lynch up - I love talented rookie or young first year starter running backs. They often outproduce their overpriced counterparts and usually come at a bargain price because people are afraid to step out on a limb. He was known for 2 things in college: Being a very hard runner, and being an excellent receiver. This bodes well for his goal line chances and extra receiving yards making him an all purpose threat. That offensive line has been overhauled also and JP Losman should be better in his second full season as a starter.
Vick down - One more incident and he may not be around and he will have less opportunity to run in the new offensive scheme. This means his points will rely much more on TD tosses. - ouch.
Steve Smith down - I am sold on Smith having a great bounce back year but there is just not enough separation in stastical output of receivers to justify the kind of money he would demand when money can be better spent on young and unheralded players such as Marquis Colston, Lee Evans, and Vincent Jackson, who can produce similar numbers. The extra money could then be spent on a top tier running back.
Vince Young down - He just will not have enough help on this team and defenses will eventually find a way to contain him and force him to stay in the pocket to beat them.
Welcome To The Fantasy Mustard
It's just now June, and the NFL draft is over, but it's never too soon to think about fantasy football. Even Mark Cuban knows we all want more football, although he's silly enough to think he can compete with the NFL. My good friend The Bomber and I bounce fantasy advice off one another pretty much year round and always figured the world needed one more source for fantasy football information.
We'll provide opinions on whose stock is rising and falling in the NFL, draft strategy for pick ems and auctions (primarily redraft, but who knows, we might throw in a dynasty article or two), help you evaluate your trade options, poke fun at those players who deserve it, comment and link to news, whatever strikes us...
And we'll throw in some other stuff that comes up. We like college football and know a few people that care about stuff like baseball and hockey, so who knows what'll happen.
Shoot us an e-mail - who's your sleeper, who should you keep?
We'll provide opinions on whose stock is rising and falling in the NFL, draft strategy for pick ems and auctions (primarily redraft, but who knows, we might throw in a dynasty article or two), help you evaluate your trade options, poke fun at those players who deserve it, comment and link to news, whatever strikes us...
And we'll throw in some other stuff that comes up. We like college football and know a few people that care about stuff like baseball and hockey, so who knows what'll happen.
Shoot us an e-mail - who's your sleeper, who should you keep?
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