Burress, Chad Johnson Have Bum Ankles

FYI. Chad had surgery to remove a bone spur or something like that. He'll be fine. Burress rolled his ankle running and claims last year's ankle injury is not an issue.

Note on Burress, though. Maybe it's just me and my prejudices, but I am not high on Burress. This might be as a mistake on my part.

On the Plus side, he has ranked 11, 12 and 10th on the fantasy WR list the last three years and he is pretty much a lock for 1000 yards and 7 TDs with potential upside. He had 10 and 12 TDs the last two years and has logged as much as 1300 yards. 1300 and 12 is a tier or two above 1000 and 7. That's a 60 fantasy point swing. He also had just 6 games with 3 or fewer receptions and had at least one every game last year. And that was on a bum ankle. He scored a TD 6 games in a row to start the year, including a 3-TD performance against Dallas in week 1.

On the downside, he does put up some clunkers in terms of yardage. 32, 24, 14, 24, 36, 35, 6. Put one of those yardage totals with a goose egg in the TD column and that's easily enough to make you wish you'd drafted a different WR. Burress also put up a 6 yard game and 0 TDs during week 16 last year. He was probably resting his ankle, which as the title of this article points out, is hurting again. One has to wonder if this guy has weak ankles.

Other stuff to consider is that he's having contract issues.

The Mustard: Burress is probably worth his ADP of 11. I'd like to see him drop some, but apparently no one else is concerned about his ankle of a year ago. I am, so I'll likely pass in pick'ems. On the plus side, his name doesn't carry the cachet of other top 12 WRs, so at auction, you can probably snag him pretty cheaply compared to a Steve Smith, Torry Holt or Houshmanzadeh. Id rather have Burress than Holt and Smith. I go back and forth on Housh.

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Lynch Off The Hook, Marshall Uncertain

AP reports that Marshawn Lynch will not be disciplined by the NFL for his hit and run.  We can officially put this one behind us now.

Lynch is a back to consider near the bottom of the first, top of the second in pick'ems and someone at the top of your third tier or bottom of your second tier of RBs in your auction valuations.

Now Brandon Marshall.... We're still waiting for news from the NFL. He's been arrested three times in the past year. Dummy. And reports are he's out of shape to start training camp. Dummy. I'm still high on his potential, but he's making it hard to pick him on draft day. Maybe if he slips a bit his upside will be worth the risk. Keep in mind, though, he's probably going to miss 4-6 games due to suspension from the league for DUI. If you take Marshall as your WR1 or WR2, you need a good WR3. I don't think I'd take him as WR1 right now.

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Bomber Says: Here's your sleeper RBs.

The Bomber works at some weeney place and due to various internet restrictions imposed by the network nazis at said weeney place of employment has resorted to having me post his first article for him. And here it is.

By way, apologies to those offended by the implication that if you don't play in an auction draft league, you are a moron with no analytical skills. The Bomber regrets hurting your feelings and you can make it up to him by sending cash or sacrificing the other members of your pick'em league in the 6th round of the draft.

This article is meant as a tool to help diagnose what running backs to target under $10 in your prospective fantasy football leagues. If you are in a pick'em league them perhaps you should consider stepping up to a real league that rewards some real analytical skills and gamesmanship as opposed to just reading off of some moronic cheatsheet.

Let us first introduce the full slate of participants with the caveat that some leagues may value some of these players more than 10 dollars. Having said that, you should have these guys on your radar and ready to pounce if you should so feel led.

Julius Jones

Michael Turner

Kevin Smith,

Darren McFadden

Matt Forte

Selvin Young

Jonathon Stewart

When choosing the perfect running back for your fantasy team one must consider the talent of the running back, O-Line, the offensive ability to move the football into scoring range, offensive philosophy, and finally opportunity to not only play but to stay on the field for 3 downs.

Let us first talk about the opportunity to play at all. It has become a rarity in the NFL to have a running back to shoulder more than 80 percent of the workload. Most NFL teams have gone to some sort of a rotation with 1 person deemed “the starter” which only means he will see more than 50 percent of the carries. Some of the few exceptions to the rule would include Ladanian Tomlinson, Frank Gore, and Stephen Jackson. In regards to staying on the field for 3 downs I mean that the running back is an effective and used receiver, and totes the rock at the goal line. When teams decide to shut down the run it is very helpful to have an RB who can get their stats via receiving yards or cheap goal line carries. With this premise in mind let us now begin our ranking and breakdown of the participants:

1. Matt Forte – The Chicago Bears seem to love this guy and the Chicago Bears owner has referred to him already as a 3 down back. The Offensive Coordinator raves about his intelligience, and says that he will see lots of touches per game. This is encouraging that Forte may be used in the same multifaceted manner as a Ladanian Tomlinson. He brings an impressive resume from Tulane with him and has proven to be a terrific receiver as well as a hard nosed runner around the goal line. At 6’2 and 222 he has the perfect combination of size and speed. We should temper expectations a bit due to the Bears' woeful collection of WR discards, and unsettled QB position. The signing of Kevin Jones may not alarm most but keep in mind Lovie Smith’s history of a running back by committee approach. Throw in third down specialist Adrian Peterson to muddy the waters just a bit more and Forte may not live up to the expectations some owners would want but I believe he has the most potential right out of the gate.
2. Michael Turner – Some may not consider Turner a sleeper but he could be overlooked on draft day due to playing on such a dreadful team. The thing I like about Turner is that he is proven, fresh and no longer a rookie so he knows how to get through a 16 game season. The Falcons have committed to running the ball – a lot - and Turner will see all the looks into the 5. I have to guess that the ATL coaching staff does not plan to totally phase Norwood out of the equation. I envision something like a 80-20 split.
3. Jonathon Stewart – Stewart has 2 things going for him – He is the big bruising back at 235 pounds who will get the goal line carriers, and Carolina is probably the most prolific offensive team of all the sleepers. The coaching staff has already said that they plan to get Deangelo Williams more involved so I don’t see Stewart being the lone back even if he wins the starting job. Some have even accused Stewart of being a bit soft. A lot will be determined by Stewart’s guts and willingness to prove himself.
4. Selvin Young – Selvin Young is being totally overlooked this year and rightfully so given Mike Shanahan’s insistence on burning fantasy football players the last decade. Young appears to be the projected starter and could put up decent numbers. He only scored 1 TD however despite averaging over 5 yards per carry. Shanahan has said last year that he was not a 25 carry back but since Young has put on 7 pounds of muscle in the offseason, Shanahan appears to have backed off that remark. In addition, the team’s goal line thief, Mike Bell, was recently released. Make no mistake, however, that Denver’s offensive line is not what is use to be and now that center Tom Nalen is retired this is not your daddy’s Denver Broncos.
5. Kevin Smith – I love this guy’s intensity and desire and think he could end up being the best of all the sleeper running backs by the time their careers are over. However, the current Detroit coaching staff begged Tatum Bell to stay with the team after Mike Martz left since the newly implemented zone blocking scheme fits him to a T. Kevin Smith, who led the NCAA in rushing last year, is too talented and intense to keep on the sidelines but that smell you are smelling is the stench of another running back by committee.
6. Darren McFadden – McFadden is being compared to Adrian Peterson and many expect the same type of offensive explosion that Peterson brought in his rookie campaign. Coach Lane Kiffin, however, has a history of bringing rookies along slowly. Besides, when you look at the legs of Mcfadden, I have a hard time thinking he can hold up under NFL type hitting. I believe McFadden will be used more in a Reggie Bush like fashion in his rookie campaign. Not enough to depend on as your starter.
7.  Julius Jones – With the heavy crop of rookie talent coming in people seem to have forgotten that Julius Jones is the new starting running back for the Seattle Seahawks. I do expect him to be revitalize and put up decent rushing totals in his new digs but Jones has never been much of a receiver and will be pulled at the goal line for TJ Duckett. There is no much upside to this.

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Shockey to New Orleans

Yeah, I know it's old news, but for the record, I am more optimistic about all the skill players in New Orleans. That offense has been a little held back by a lack of playmakers. I love Colston and Brees already. Shockey just opens up options for Brees and ensures Colston has a little more room to run. A healthy passing threat, opens things up for Bush and McAllister. A more potent offense even makes the defense more valuable.

The most likely concern that comes with Shockey - his attitude - doesn't concern me. New Orleans is already established. Brees and Bush are bigger names and they have established relationships with Colston and McAllister. Brees is no wet-behind-the-ears rookie and he knows he doesn't have to give it to Shockey to be successful. If anything, Shockey will have to behave if he wants to see balls as he won't be able to intimidate anyone in New Orleans. I think he'll find a way to fit in and may even have a better overall stat line in the pass-happy Saints offense.

What's this mean for Kevin Boss? Be reasonable, okay, but certainly eyeball him as TE2. He probably won't reproduce Shockey's stats but Eli certainly has experience tossing to the TE.

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Portis Upside Confirmed

I've been operating under the assumption the new offensive scheme in DC will be good for Portis, who is best operating in space. Turns out Portis and his HC are under the same assumption, judging by this article here.  Further good news is that Portis has been in camp learning the system and that he and coach Zorn both seem to think Portis will be used 'a lot'.

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Matt Forte and Kevin Jones

I admit I was a little surprised the Bears signed Kevin Jones to a contract, but now that Jones has officially been placed on the PUP list, I'm a little more so. Jones, if you may recall, had knee surgery about 7 months ago.

According to CBS news, being on the PUP list now doesn't mean much as long as he is not on the PUP list on week one. If he's on the PUP list during the regular season, he's out at least six weeks.

The bottom line is that others will get nervous about Forte and this will drive his value down. The way I look at it, the team had to know Jones wasn't ready, so they must have brought Jones on as insurance.

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Drafting Tips 2008, Part 3

Get on and off the right bandwagons.

I've gotten in the habit of trying to jump off bandwagons before everyone else and then jumping on the bandwagons everyone else got off last year. I don't have the stats to prove it, but the way I judge human nature, it works.

People over-react. The high ranked players that didn't pan out last year are treated like pariahs this year. The unranked studs that came from nowhere are suddenly the second coming of Barry Sanders.

Consider my favorite sleeper RB this year: Thomas Jones. I was high on him last year - higher than most, actually - and he disappointed. His OL has improved. He has a better FB. He's still the only real rusher on a team that likes to use a single back. I think he's good for up to 1400 yards and 6 TDs, and with a little luck 8-10 TDs. Can you say potential top 12-15 RB at the RB 24 slot? Steal.

Second point: People sometimes don't look at the game-by-game results or the statistics. Dig a little deeper than the summary stats. Schaub and Andre Johnson, if healthy, are an elite pair. This is also why I'm on Ryan Grant's wagon. He only started 7 games, so moderate your hope a little, but he was 9th in TDs, 6th in YPC and if I recall my ESPN blurb correctly, had the highest percentage of runs of 20+ yards. If you extrapolate his TD total to a full 16 games, he would have had the most rushing TDs. He's certainly a potential top 5 back and he is already a bigger home-run threat than LT and AP (based on 7 games' worth of stats, I know) and he's being drafted as the 12th RB. At that position, he has more upside than downside, I believe.

What other wagons should you get on? Off?

Get on Board:

QBs:Cutler, Schaub, Garrard. Honorable Mention: Vince Young.

RBs: Thomas Jones, Ryan Grant, Portis, McGahee, Jamal Lewis, Jones-Drew,  Jonathan Stewart, Matt Forte and Kevin Smith.

WRs: Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Marques Colston, Santonio Holmes, Jerry Porter.

TEs: Shockey (Yay! Drew Brees!), Owen Daniels, Tony Scheffler, Alge Crumpler, Vernon Davis

Get off the Wagon:

QBs: Palmer, Anderson, Roethlisberger. Honorable Mention: Jon Kitna, but only because there was never many people on his wagon.

RBs: Addai, Westbrook, AP, Ronnie Brown, Darren McFadden.

WRs: Chad Johnson, Houshmanzadeh, Holt, Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald. Honorable Mention: Randy Moss, Terrell Owens.

TEs: Gonzalez, Gates, Heap.


This is not to say draft Vernon Davis ahead of Antonio Gates. I'm saying that Gates will be the #1 or #2 TE taken and because of the team he's on and the toe issue, I believe it's more likely he will fail to live up to that slot. Davis, meanwhile, has burned fantasy footballers since he's been in the league but if anyone can turn him into a star, it's Martz and his pass happy offense because, really, who else is going to catch the ball in San Fran?

That's the same reasoning for my liking Joey Porter this year. I'm not selling the farm for the guy, but Garrard is good and there's not much for star power in the Jacksonville stable of WRs. Why not Joey Porter?

AP is the epitome of the player who's bandwagon you should watch ride off while you draft someone else. I'm not sure there is a more inconsistent player who gets more press off of a handful of games, however extraordinary that handful happened to be. He had 8 games under 100 yards rushing and 6 games over 100 yards and missed 2 altogether. He had a game against the Redskins where he had 3 total yard rushing on 14 attempts. Unacceptable. If you draft him, don't say you didn't realize he isn't explosive every week.

My list here is by no means complete. Make your own. Who underperformed his draft position last year? That player is almost certainly undervalued this year. Who was a superstar last year? That player is going to have no upside at the position you have to pick him at. Some players, like Addai, get over hyped on name recognition and I don't see any way for that player to live up to their ranking.

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Second Tier RBs

A couple of weeks ago, I listed my concerns about the top RBs here and said I'd blog about the five running backs who I think have a very good chance to get 1600 yards. I also said that Addai wasn't among them and blogged about him here.

That's right - I have Addai in my third tier. Read the article and see if I make any sense. I dare you.

So about that second tier, here it is with my projected fantasy point total based on 6 pt TDs and 1 point for every 10 yards rushing or receiving:

Ryan Grant, 242
Clinton Portis, 222
Willis McGahee, 220
Jamal Lewis, 220
Marshawn Lynch, 214

For the record, Ryan Grant is much closer to my projected totals for the tier 1 RBs than the rest of the tier 2 guys, but I just can't make myself call him tier one based on half a year's stats. Given his new QB and the chance that it was all a fluke, I'm not even going to suggest you take him as the fifth RB off the board. What I'm saying is, if he falls far enough, why not roll the dice on him? If he does meet the projections, you got a steal. Footballguys.com gives his ADP as 16, or the 12th RB off the board. You can get a potential top 5 back almost half way through the second round.

Clinton Portis is a player I like this year. He is great in space and the 'Skins are installing a West Coast offense that should keep defenses from crowding the line. He was averaging about 4 YPC in Washington under the old-school cloud of dust offense. He should get closer to the 5.5 YPC he had in Denver under the new system plus have opportunity for more catches. That's upside, folks, and his ADP is 9/RB 8. The best news is, he has a track record as a pretty good RB. Unlike Grant, I'm not that worried about him falling off now that he's put Ladell Betts firmly back on the bench. The closest thing I have to concern is whether the new HC, Jim Zorn, can call plays - something he has never done in the NFL.

McGahee is totally disrespected by fantasy nation. He was the #8 RB in fantasy football last year. He is virtually a lock for 1300-1400 all-purpose yards and his new OC is the guy that made Ronnie Brown the #1 RB in fantasy football through week 7 last year even after making Brown earn the starting spot the first few games. With an ADP of 14/RB 11, McGahee is a bargain even if he just repeats his historical averages. The upside is all free.

Jamal Lewis is also disrepected. He finished as the #6 RB in fantasy football last year and his ADP this year is 23/RB14. I blogged here about the reasons fantasy nation is down on Lewis and how the arguments are understandable. I stand by that article in saying I'm comfortable with him as my RB 2. It's just that I think he has a shot to be a top-10 back this year if he takes advantage of his upside. (I have explained before that I don't necessarily draft in order of my projections, right? I think Lewis has a pretty good shot at 220 fantasy points, but I'm not banking on it for the reasons laid out in the previous post.) Lewis really picked it up coming down the stretch with 789 rushing,140 receiving and 5 TDs in the last 7 games of the year. If you take Lewis, you're hoping he and the Browns keep that up. One more good thing - he has no real competition for carries.

Marshawn Lynch and the Buffalo Bills played a brutal schedule last year, his rookie year, with a new QB to boot, and he still put up 1300 all-purpose yards and 7 TDs in just 13 games. He's supposedly going to be a lynchpin of the offense this year. The schedule should be easier. And an improved O-line should help him find the end zone more often. As long as Goodell doesn't suspend him for a hit-and-run on a pedestrian, Lynch is a pretty safe bet to outplay his ADP of 12/RB 10.

Honorable Mentions:

Addai is next on my list. I'm a little concerned about him losing carries to Rhodes and Keith, but he'll finish the year very respectably whatever happens. He just won't be a top 5 RB barring a lot of other RBs failing to live up their potential this year.

Frank Gore is flirting with the second tier. I'm warming to the possibility that Martz almost has to use Gore because outside of Vernon Davis, he's got no other proven weapon. Plus, Gore is obviously a more proven threat than Davis. For what it's worth, WR Bryant Johnson is a great sleeper WR to grab, but he's just not a proven threat. Yet.

Earnest Graham and Larry Johnson are right there, too, with concerns about competition for carries and an awful offense (line and QB), respectively, keeping them from being higher in my projections.

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Drafting Tips 2008, Part 2

In part 1 of this article, I demonstrated the sinking value of RBs and promoted the consideration of Tom Brady as high as the middle of the first round. I want to defend that a little briefly and then move to advocating the increased importance of WRs and TEs compared to RBs in this post.

As for Brady,  I didn't go so far as to advocate it, but he might be worth taking #1 overall. The best reason not to do so is because we all remember taking Peyton Manning #1 overall in 2005 and being let down when he put up a mere mortal like stat line of 3747 and 28.

Why did Manning burn us? (Well, you, maybe. I took LT with the first pick in my office league that year. Anyway...) Manning burned us because 2004 was a gross statistical anomaly in his stats. Perhaps he faced weaker defenses, perhaps the team was just 'clicking' with many players at their physical and mental peak at the same time. Maybe Dungy got a sneak peak at the defensive playbooks of his division opponents. Whatever it was, nothing fundamental changed about the Colts' offense. There was no reason to suspect Manning's 2004 numbers would repeat in 2005 other than hope.

The Patriots, of course, did have a fundamental shift in their offense not just in play calling, but in personnel. The obvious is the addition of Randy Moss, but the Patriots also said goodbye to bruiser Corey Dillon and transitioned to an injured Laurence Maroney. Brady, who had been pretty darn good anyway, suddenly had a stud WR who could outrun and outjump the defenders and the offense had little need to pound the rock, and little desire to do so because of Maroney's shoulder issues. Having experienced success with the wide-open aerial attack, it's reasonable to assume the team will try it again in 2008, is it not?

But Maroney averaged over 20 attempts per game the last three games of the regular season and the playoffs, you counter? Well, he did. But Moss' stats didn't drop off during the regular season and the playoffs favor rushing b/c the refs don't call interference or holding as often. I wouldn't be worried too much about Maroney supplanting the passing game. Brady's most likely not going to throw 50 TDs again, I admit, but he could easily throw in the mid-30s, making him again the top TD throwing QB. Only Romo (36), Roethlisberger (32) and Manning (31) were even close to that last year.

If your goal is to limit risk while snagging sure things in the first round or two, you can't go wrong with Brady.

Regarding the rise of WRs and TEs, here are the numbers:

WRs

2006       2007
201         280
195         218
183         212
180         198
179         188
178         185
174         179
173         176
173         170
165         167

For comparison's sake

          2006      2007
#20      135      130
#30      115      110


TEs

2006      2007
141         147
118         145
115         139
106         133
105         121
99           121
97            93
92            85
88            82
76            78


The first observation is that at the top of the rankings, there appears to be an upward trend in value of WRs and TEs from 2006 to 2007. Yet this trend is not across the board as the values even out. What this says to me is that the stud receivers are gaining more value even while their lesser peers are not. It's evidence of offensive coordinators willing to get the ball into the hands of their studs. 

These numbers plainly do not justify abandoning running backs for WRs and TEs. But they do provide support for those who find themselves in a spot with the 'sure thing' RBs gone. The stud-WR drafting theory of grabbing two top flight WRs rather than two questionable RBs keeps looking better every year.

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Frank Gore Evaluation

The Niner Insider from SFGate.com did an excellent job here on evaluating Frank Gore and, to a lesser extent, Alex Smith.

Alex Smith is one of many intriguing QBs this year. Martz' resume is littered with 4000-yard passers.

Gore is also 'intriguing' to me. I put that in quotes because while many are banking on him to have a top 10 performance this year, I'm having a hard time letting go of the Martz' resume concerning running backs not named Marshall Faulk.

On the other hand, Gore finished 10th in Yahoo standard scoring last year in a down year despite an injury and an all-around crummy offense. It was, of course, a down year for all running backs and Edgerrin James actually finished 9th for what that's worth.

The Mustard: You could do worse than snagging Smith as your QB2. In fact, he'll probably be high on my QB2 target list. As for Gore -- I'm risk averse, but he has to do better than last year, so he certainly warrants consideration for your top-10 running backs list but without knowing if Martz really will give Gore 25 touches a game (as he said this off-season), I just can't bank on Gore in the top 5.

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