Monday, December 17, 2007

Death of the Stud RB 'Law'

In science, something is called a 'law' when it is said to be immutable. You can base other science off of the law and it is beyond normal question unless you're the type who questions whether the cat in the box is dead or alive until you observe the cat.

Well, in fantasy football, it is generally accepted as fact that to win you draft two running backs as fast as possible except maybe if you're really late in the second round and then it's okay to take a top WR. At the beginning of this season, I read an article stating the 'Stud RB Theory' should be called the 'Stud RB Law' because there are only so many stud RBs, that position is the most consistent points producer, and having two studs there sets you apart.

Well, not so fast.

Looking around preparing for the draft, it seemed to me there was a plethora of good RBs available. Gore, Jackson, LT, Addai, Alexander, Willie Parker, Maroney, Thomas Jones, Travis Henry, Cedric Benson, Brandon Jacobs, Edge, Ronnie Brown, Carnell Williams, Marshawn Lynch, Larry Johnson and probably others all looked to be in situations where they were the unquestioned starter and not in a committee. There were even relatively good gambles on potential studs in Green Bay and Detroit. I knew this was the year, if there ever was one, to abandon Stud RB Theory.

Indeed, at my auction draft, I let the top RBs go, settling for Thomas Jones, Lawrence Maroney, Brandon Jacobs and one of the Detroit backs - all of whom let me down to some degree or another. Even though they didn't turn out to be as productive as I hoped, my WRs, TEs and defenses carried me to the championship.

Having watched the above-named backs' performances (and seeing some of them split time with unknowns), I'm about ready to bury Stud RB Theory. Sure LT and Westbrook as a tandem on the same team would win their owner a pile of games late this season, but that same owner might have been out of the running if he had to rely on them early in the year. Besides, they were both top 5 or 6 picks and you couldn't normally have had both of them.

So what's up with the running backs? I agree with the Bomber - we're seeing a new era emerge in the NFL. Officiating is so geared toward protecting not just the QB, but also allowing the WRs to run their routes, the need to 'establish the running game to open up the pass' is no longer present. You can win in the NFL without a running game. And more importantly, you can score more points and sell more tickets doing so.

There's a new variable in rating running backs - is the OC committed to controlling the clock? If not, next year might be the year that your top pick's team decides the running game is irrelevant, as happened to Maroney this year.

Write it down: in a year or two, someone will write an article saying 'Stud WR Theory should be called Stud WR Law.'

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