Yahoo sports writer Brad Evans will be drafting Stud RB next year. I want to know who he thinks is worthy of the number one slot. Adrian Peterson of Minnesota or Joseph Addai? Maybe he'll go with LT or Westbrook. Assume for a second you have the pick and you're on the clock. Which one of those are you certain is a can't miss pick that will score every week for you? Maybe Peterson, if he can stay healthy, but... You can't decide either, can you?
To be fair, he raises the valid point of Manning's career year over inflating the value of QBs the next year. (or so I assume - it seems plausible without doing my own statistical analysis) But I would say that 1) I'm not necessarily saying you should take a QB first, just that you should consider certain QBs and certain WRs at some points in round 1, 2) he fails to consider whether the NFL is any longer a running league.
He raises another valid point - do not pay for last year's success. I knew taking Manning first overall was a mistake in '05, but the giddy masses of mindless magazine readers did not. Ironically, the same mindless masses, having been burned in 2005, let Manning fall back a little too far in 2006 - a fact the Bombers rode to an auction league championship by getting the great one at a bargain.
The story is linked above and here, but Brad writes:
" Grievance No. 1: Back Panic Attack During the fantasy regular season, the otherworldly contributions of Brady, Romo, Brett Favre, Derek Anderson and Drew Brees coupled with the widely perceived running back fallout, have altered owner mindsets and mistakenly challenged conventional drafting principles. Sure the aforementioned names deserve consideration in the early rounds next season. But, as you may recall from '04, Peyton Manning spearheaded a quarterback boom that resulted in an ADP spike at the position the following drafting year. However, running backs reclaimed their dominance in '05, not quarterbacks. Trends in fantasy, like the economy, are cyclical. No consecutive seasons are identical. So instead of paying for career years at quarterback, stick with traditional draft day truths. As any fortunate Brady, Romo, or Anderson owner would attest, they couldn't have advanced to their league championship without headline performances from '07 first-rounders LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook, Clinton Portis and, unbelievably, Laurence Maroney. Believe me. The running theory is hardly dead. Running backs will rise again next year."
Last thought: Does Drew Brees really belong on the same list as Romo, Favre and Brady? Holy cow, I guess he does. Despite having just one TD in his first four games, he's turned it on since. Check out these stats: 3800 yards/ 25 TDs/ 15 INTs / 68.7% completion. Most passes completed, most attempts, fourth in yards, tied for 7th in TDs.
I wonder why he slighted Peyton, though? His stats, though un-Peyton like, are still top notch.
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