Thoughts on drafting next year

This year, I was hot on Roethlisberger and Campbell as late round QB selections. I nailed the Roethlisberger pick, at least, and Campbell could have been worse - like any Atlanta QB, for example.

Next year: Tarvaris Jackson and Jay Cutler. Neither QB's whole body of work warrants high consideration, but both are still brimming with potential.

Jackson has a 58.9% completion percentage, 1700 yards, 7 TDs and 12 INTs and a 6.6 yard per attempt average. However, since week 10, his completion percentages have been from the low 60s to the low 80s and he's only had one game with fewer than 22 attempts. He still throws too many INTs, though, even during his good stretch since week 10. Intangible: I watched his game against Washington and even though his YPA was low, he was confident and accurate.


Cutler has a 63% completion percentage, 3250 yards, 18 TDs and 14 INTs and a healthy 7.6 yard per attempt average. That's not shabby for a very young QB. The yardage should naturally increase with experience (and growing with two very good WRs). If he can get the TDs into the 22-24 range and the INTs down to 10 or so, he would be right around the top 10. He's top 10 in yards now. You know what - I just checked Yahoo and he's the #10 QB in fantasy *this year*. Intangible: he was an over-hyped prospect this year. Next year he'll be a better value.

At running back next year, my thoughts right now are mostly about who to avoid getting over excited about. This list includes Ryan Grant and Justin Fargas. Fargas will be on a team starting a new QB and will have been a partial season wonder. Grant will also only have a very good partial season to his credit and may or may not have a new QB under center to keep defenses honest. If Favre returns, I like Grant in the late second or after, but he'll probably go higher than that.

Pay attention to the draft picks and free agency moves on the offensive side of the ball in San Fran and Jacksonville. Gore and Jackson are better than their stats this year and might be a value if their teams make good moves.

Will Marion 'the barbarian' Barber inherit the stud RB slot in Dallas next year? Will Fred Taylor retire and make Maurice Jones-Drew a stud?

Jamal Lewis will only be 29 next year. I thought he was older than that. He's the #5 RB on Yahoo. I bet he goes a lot lower next year. Steal, even with the possibility of Quinn getting the start. I mean, Derek Anderson is new at the position this year.

I was wrong entirely on Clinton Portis. But if there's a coaching change in DC, maybe Portis' stats will take a hit in favor of RBBC with Betts.

TE - there'll be even more options next year. I think we can bury the Vernon Davis bandwagon, though, unless Derek Anderson ends up in San Fran.

more later...