Second Tier RBs

A couple of weeks ago, I listed my concerns about the top RBs here and said I'd blog about the five running backs who I think have a very good chance to get 1600 yards. I also said that Addai wasn't among them and blogged about him here.

That's right - I have Addai in my third tier. Read the article and see if I make any sense. I dare you.

So about that second tier, here it is with my projected fantasy point total based on 6 pt TDs and 1 point for every 10 yards rushing or receiving:

Ryan Grant, 242
Clinton Portis, 222
Willis McGahee, 220
Jamal Lewis, 220
Marshawn Lynch, 214

For the record, Ryan Grant is much closer to my projected totals for the tier 1 RBs than the rest of the tier 2 guys, but I just can't make myself call him tier one based on half a year's stats. Given his new QB and the chance that it was all a fluke, I'm not even going to suggest you take him as the fifth RB off the board. What I'm saying is, if he falls far enough, why not roll the dice on him? If he does meet the projections, you got a steal. Footballguys.com gives his ADP as 16, or the 12th RB off the board. You can get a potential top 5 back almost half way through the second round.

Clinton Portis is a player I like this year. He is great in space and the 'Skins are installing a West Coast offense that should keep defenses from crowding the line. He was averaging about 4 YPC in Washington under the old-school cloud of dust offense. He should get closer to the 5.5 YPC he had in Denver under the new system plus have opportunity for more catches. That's upside, folks, and his ADP is 9/RB 8. The best news is, he has a track record as a pretty good RB. Unlike Grant, I'm not that worried about him falling off now that he's put Ladell Betts firmly back on the bench. The closest thing I have to concern is whether the new HC, Jim Zorn, can call plays - something he has never done in the NFL.

McGahee is totally disrespected by fantasy nation. He was the #8 RB in fantasy football last year. He is virtually a lock for 1300-1400 all-purpose yards and his new OC is the guy that made Ronnie Brown the #1 RB in fantasy football through week 7 last year even after making Brown earn the starting spot the first few games. With an ADP of 14/RB 11, McGahee is a bargain even if he just repeats his historical averages. The upside is all free.

Jamal Lewis is also disrepected. He finished as the #6 RB in fantasy football last year and his ADP this year is 23/RB14. I blogged here about the reasons fantasy nation is down on Lewis and how the arguments are understandable. I stand by that article in saying I'm comfortable with him as my RB 2. It's just that I think he has a shot to be a top-10 back this year if he takes advantage of his upside. (I have explained before that I don't necessarily draft in order of my projections, right? I think Lewis has a pretty good shot at 220 fantasy points, but I'm not banking on it for the reasons laid out in the previous post.) Lewis really picked it up coming down the stretch with 789 rushing,140 receiving and 5 TDs in the last 7 games of the year. If you take Lewis, you're hoping he and the Browns keep that up. One more good thing - he has no real competition for carries.

Marshawn Lynch and the Buffalo Bills played a brutal schedule last year, his rookie year, with a new QB to boot, and he still put up 1300 all-purpose yards and 7 TDs in just 13 games. He's supposedly going to be a lynchpin of the offense this year. The schedule should be easier. And an improved O-line should help him find the end zone more often. As long as Goodell doesn't suspend him for a hit-and-run on a pedestrian, Lynch is a pretty safe bet to outplay his ADP of 12/RB 10.

Honorable Mentions:

Addai is next on my list. I'm a little concerned about him losing carries to Rhodes and Keith, but he'll finish the year very respectably whatever happens. He just won't be a top 5 RB barring a lot of other RBs failing to live up their potential this year.

Frank Gore is flirting with the second tier. I'm warming to the possibility that Martz almost has to use Gore because outside of Vernon Davis, he's got no other proven weapon. Plus, Gore is obviously a more proven threat than Davis. For what it's worth, WR Bryant Johnson is a great sleeper WR to grab, but he's just not a proven threat. Yet.

Earnest Graham and Larry Johnson are right there, too, with concerns about competition for carries and an awful offense (line and QB), respectively, keeping them from being higher in my projections.

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