I've gotten in the habit of trying to jump off bandwagons before everyone else and then jumping on the bandwagons everyone else got off last year. I don't have the stats to prove it, but the way I judge human nature, it works.
People over-react. The high ranked players that didn't pan out last year are treated like pariahs this year. The unranked studs that came from nowhere are suddenly the second coming of Barry Sanders.
Consider my favorite sleeper RB this year: Thomas Jones. I was high on him last year - higher than most, actually - and he disappointed. His OL has improved. He has a better FB. He's still the only real rusher on a team that likes to use a single back. I think he's good for up to 1400 yards and 6 TDs, and with a little luck 8-10 TDs. Can you say potential top 12-15 RB at the RB 24 slot? Steal.
Second point: People sometimes don't look at the game-by-game results or the statistics. Dig a little deeper than the summary stats. Schaub and Andre Johnson, if healthy, are an elite pair. This is also why I'm on Ryan Grant's wagon. He only started 7 games, so moderate your hope a little, but he was 9th in TDs, 6th in YPC and if I recall my ESPN blurb correctly, had the highest percentage of runs of 20+ yards. If you extrapolate his TD total to a full 16 games, he would have had the most rushing TDs. He's certainly a potential top 5 back and he is already a bigger home-run threat than LT and AP (based on 7 games' worth of stats, I know) and he's being drafted as the 12th RB. At that position, he has more upside than downside, I believe.
What other wagons should you get on? Off?
Get on Board:
QBs:Cutler, Schaub, Garrard. Honorable Mention: Vince Young.
RBs: Thomas Jones, Ryan Grant, Portis, McGahee, Jamal Lewis, Jones-Drew, Jonathan Stewart, Matt Forte and Kevin Smith.
WRs: Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Marques Colston, Santonio Holmes, Jerry Porter.
TEs: Shockey (Yay! Drew Brees!), Owen Daniels, Tony Scheffler, Alge Crumpler, Vernon Davis
Get off the Wagon:
QBs: Palmer, Anderson, Roethlisberger. Honorable Mention: Jon Kitna, but only because there was never many people on his wagon.
RBs: Addai, Westbrook, AP, Ronnie Brown, Darren McFadden.
WRs: Chad Johnson, Houshmanzadeh, Holt, Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald. Honorable Mention: Randy Moss, Terrell Owens.
TEs: Gonzalez, Gates, Heap.
This is not to say draft Vernon Davis ahead of Antonio Gates. I'm saying that Gates will be the #1 or #2 TE taken and because of the team he's on and the toe issue, I believe it's more likely he will fail to live up to that slot. Davis, meanwhile, has burned fantasy footballers since he's been in the league but if anyone can turn him into a star, it's Martz and his pass happy offense because, really, who else is going to catch the ball in San Fran?
That's the same reasoning for my liking Joey Porter this year. I'm not selling the farm for the guy, but Garrard is good and there's not much for star power in the Jacksonville stable of WRs. Why not Joey Porter?
AP is the epitome of the player who's bandwagon you should watch ride off while you draft someone else. I'm not sure there is a more inconsistent player who gets more press off of a handful of games, however extraordinary that handful happened to be. He had 8 games under 100 yards rushing and 6 games over 100 yards and missed 2 altogether. He had a game against the Redskins where he had 3 total yard rushing on 14 attempts. Unacceptable. If you draft him, don't say you didn't realize he isn't explosive every week.
My list here is by no means complete. Make your own. Who underperformed his draft position last year? That player is almost certainly undervalued this year. Who was a superstar last year? That player is going to have no upside at the position you have to pick him at. Some players, like Addai, get over hyped on name recognition and I don't see any way for that player to live up to their ranking.
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