Bomber Says: Here's your sleeper RBs.

The Bomber works at some weeney place and due to various internet restrictions imposed by the network nazis at said weeney place of employment has resorted to having me post his first article for him. And here it is.

By way, apologies to those offended by the implication that if you don't play in an auction draft league, you are a moron with no analytical skills. The Bomber regrets hurting your feelings and you can make it up to him by sending cash or sacrificing the other members of your pick'em league in the 6th round of the draft.

This article is meant as a tool to help diagnose what running backs to target under $10 in your prospective fantasy football leagues. If you are in a pick'em league them perhaps you should consider stepping up to a real league that rewards some real analytical skills and gamesmanship as opposed to just reading off of some moronic cheatsheet.

Let us first introduce the full slate of participants with the caveat that some leagues may value some of these players more than 10 dollars. Having said that, you should have these guys on your radar and ready to pounce if you should so feel led.

Julius Jones

Michael Turner

Kevin Smith,

Darren McFadden

Matt Forte

Selvin Young

Jonathon Stewart

When choosing the perfect running back for your fantasy team one must consider the talent of the running back, O-Line, the offensive ability to move the football into scoring range, offensive philosophy, and finally opportunity to not only play but to stay on the field for 3 downs.

Let us first talk about the opportunity to play at all. It has become a rarity in the NFL to have a running back to shoulder more than 80 percent of the workload. Most NFL teams have gone to some sort of a rotation with 1 person deemed “the starter” which only means he will see more than 50 percent of the carries. Some of the few exceptions to the rule would include Ladanian Tomlinson, Frank Gore, and Stephen Jackson. In regards to staying on the field for 3 downs I mean that the running back is an effective and used receiver, and totes the rock at the goal line. When teams decide to shut down the run it is very helpful to have an RB who can get their stats via receiving yards or cheap goal line carries. With this premise in mind let us now begin our ranking and breakdown of the participants:

1. Matt Forte – The Chicago Bears seem to love this guy and the Chicago Bears owner has referred to him already as a 3 down back. The Offensive Coordinator raves about his intelligience, and says that he will see lots of touches per game. This is encouraging that Forte may be used in the same multifaceted manner as a Ladanian Tomlinson. He brings an impressive resume from Tulane with him and has proven to be a terrific receiver as well as a hard nosed runner around the goal line. At 6’2 and 222 he has the perfect combination of size and speed. We should temper expectations a bit due to the Bears' woeful collection of WR discards, and unsettled QB position. The signing of Kevin Jones may not alarm most but keep in mind Lovie Smith’s history of a running back by committee approach. Throw in third down specialist Adrian Peterson to muddy the waters just a bit more and Forte may not live up to the expectations some owners would want but I believe he has the most potential right out of the gate.
2. Michael Turner – Some may not consider Turner a sleeper but he could be overlooked on draft day due to playing on such a dreadful team. The thing I like about Turner is that he is proven, fresh and no longer a rookie so he knows how to get through a 16 game season. The Falcons have committed to running the ball – a lot - and Turner will see all the looks into the 5. I have to guess that the ATL coaching staff does not plan to totally phase Norwood out of the equation. I envision something like a 80-20 split.
3. Jonathon Stewart – Stewart has 2 things going for him – He is the big bruising back at 235 pounds who will get the goal line carriers, and Carolina is probably the most prolific offensive team of all the sleepers. The coaching staff has already said that they plan to get Deangelo Williams more involved so I don’t see Stewart being the lone back even if he wins the starting job. Some have even accused Stewart of being a bit soft. A lot will be determined by Stewart’s guts and willingness to prove himself.
4. Selvin Young – Selvin Young is being totally overlooked this year and rightfully so given Mike Shanahan’s insistence on burning fantasy football players the last decade. Young appears to be the projected starter and could put up decent numbers. He only scored 1 TD however despite averaging over 5 yards per carry. Shanahan has said last year that he was not a 25 carry back but since Young has put on 7 pounds of muscle in the offseason, Shanahan appears to have backed off that remark. In addition, the team’s goal line thief, Mike Bell, was recently released. Make no mistake, however, that Denver’s offensive line is not what is use to be and now that center Tom Nalen is retired this is not your daddy’s Denver Broncos.
5. Kevin Smith – I love this guy’s intensity and desire and think he could end up being the best of all the sleeper running backs by the time their careers are over. However, the current Detroit coaching staff begged Tatum Bell to stay with the team after Mike Martz left since the newly implemented zone blocking scheme fits him to a T. Kevin Smith, who led the NCAA in rushing last year, is too talented and intense to keep on the sidelines but that smell you are smelling is the stench of another running back by committee.
6. Darren McFadden – McFadden is being compared to Adrian Peterson and many expect the same type of offensive explosion that Peterson brought in his rookie campaign. Coach Lane Kiffin, however, has a history of bringing rookies along slowly. Besides, when you look at the legs of Mcfadden, I have a hard time thinking he can hold up under NFL type hitting. I believe McFadden will be used more in a Reggie Bush like fashion in his rookie campaign. Not enough to depend on as your starter.
7.  Julius Jones – With the heavy crop of rookie talent coming in people seem to have forgotten that Julius Jones is the new starting running back for the Seattle Seahawks. I do expect him to be revitalize and put up decent rushing totals in his new digs but Jones has never been much of a receiver and will be pulled at the goal line for TJ Duckett. There is no much upside to this.

Blogged with the Flock Browser