Why I'm Down On Addai

First, let's define what I mean when I say I am 'down' on Addai. He is the best RB on a prolific offense who is capable of doing everything the coaches require of him and is capable of 4.8 YPC and has had almost 300 rushes in a season. For the sake of consistency, he's put up about 1000 rushing and about 400 receiving two years in a row. Addai has a pretty high floor.

The problem with Addai being pretty consistently ranked around 5th by the magazines is two-fold.

First, the magazines and websites overvalue the final stat line from last year and ignore the game by game results.

Addai had meaningful carries in 13 games because he missed one during the season and was rested at the end of the season. Week 15 (first week of playoffs) he put up about 7 points. In the championship week (16), he put up 8. Thanks a lot, there, Mr. Dungy. If your championship happened to be week 17, you got 2 points from him. (and you need to change leagues). Addai also scored 6 of his 15 TDs in two games. Otherwise, he had exactly one 2-TD game, which is  more than balanced with 4 games where he failed to find the end zone. Shabby? No, it's not. It's just not the stuff I want from my 'stud' RB selected with the #5 overall pick.

Second, the magazines and websites seem to be predicting an increase in carries and completely discounting the return of Dominic Rhodes and the continued presence of Kenton Keith. In 2006, Rhodes got almost half the carries. Rhodes was eventually relegated to second back behind Addai that season, then allowed to go to Oakland (or traded? either way...) And he's two years older. Nonetheless, there is a comfort factor in Indy with Rhodes, which means there's a chance he'll be used on roles that would otherwise go to Addai. Meanwhile, Kenton Keith, in relief of Addai last season, didn't look too shabby.

So here's the score: Dungy and Colts have run a split RBBC before and with Rhodes and Keith on the roster, there's a possibility they'll do it again this year; Addai isn't a consistent fantasy force, despite his very good weeks, especially considering Dungy 'disappeared' him during the fantasy playoff and championship weeks.

The Mustard: Just avoid him. You'd have to take him too high or pay too much for him. He'll be a value next year. In fact, I'd trade him now in a dynasty league.

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