My first observation is that I really don't want one of the top running backs this year. Don't get me wrong - I projected them high and if I have the one of the first two picks and LT is there, I'm taking him. But I'm dropping out of the bidding early for him in my auction league. And if LT is gone and I have the second, third or fourth pick, I might take Tom Brady over Adrian Peterson, Brian Westbrook or Steven Jackson.
Am I nuts? No, just risk averse.
LT. As someone who has owned LT more than once, I can attest to the frustration he causes his owners. I've owned him when he'd go through stretches where he'd score 3 or 4 points for a game or two, then 37 points, then have another stretch of single digit points. A #1 RB both wins and loses games for you with point variations like that. He was had just one 5 point fantasy game last year, but if you recall, his owners were nonetheless frustrated at the start of the year because through week 9, he'd had only two LT-quality games. He'll finish the year in the top 5, probably as the top running back, but you'll never know when he'll score a measly total to go with those awesome weeks.
Adrian Peterson. The same condition that caused concern for AP last year still exists - he's injury prone and shares carries with Chester Taylor. Everyone shares carries these days, but Taylor is capable back who averaged 5.4 per carry last year. And AP did miss two weeks due to injury. Beyond that, he had less than 20 carries 8 times (19, 12, 12, 11, 15, 14, 9, 11) and he had less than 100 rushing yards 8 times (66, 63, 70, 45, 3, 78, 27, 36), ten counting the two weeks me missed. That three yard game came with 14 rushes against the 49ers, by the way. His most receptions in a game are 4, though he did make the most of his 19 receptions, gaining 268 yards or 14.1 per reception. So I ask you, is THIS what you want to stake your season on? Explosive? Yes. Dependable? No.
Brian Westbrook. In his 6 years, he has never completed all 16 games, but he completed 15 the last two, earning him the adjective 'dependable' in one fantasy magazine this year. In the last two years, he's averaged 2000 yards from scrimmage rushing and receiving with 11 and 12 TDs. Not too shabby. I'm still not sold though. He gets dinged up and there's always talk of spreading the ball around, especially this year. As the only dangerous player outside of McNabb in Philly, Westbrook has value, but to expect him to repeat last seasons stats (career highs) is a bit optimistic - and that's what you have to do if you draft him top 5.
Steven Jackson. I've actually projected him second behind LT. So what's my cause for concern? Maybe you remember last year ? He had just 1300 yards from scrimmage and just 6 TDs - mighty low totals for a consensus top 5 back. If he stays healthy, if his line is healthy and if Bulger and Holt can keep defenses from stacking against the run, Jackson is in for a big year. I THINK he'll finish in the top 5, but I have to be honest with myself. The Rams are just an injury or two away from Jackson having another also-ran type of season.
The good news in this year's RB rankings is that I believe there are five players who are very good bets to net at least 1600 yards from scrimage. Maybe more on that later. A little teaser - Joseph Addai is not on that list.
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