Allow me to defend my tinfoil-hat wearing, black helicopter, secret UN codes on street signs, unconventional position. I shall start with the numbers for RBs the last two years. The #8 running back (Jones-Drew) in 2006 scored 223 fantasy points*. In 2007, Adrian Peterson and Joseph Addai tied for third with 222 fantasy points. Put plainly, the 8th best RB performance in 2006 would have been the third best last year. In an economic sense, the RB position devalued from 2006 to 2007.
2006 2007
418 293
318 269
317 222
251 222
249 210
243 207
234 187
223 174
196 172
177 170
For comparison's sake
06 07
# 20 160 139
# 30 122 105
I don't have the 2005 ESPN numbers, but I don't think this is a one-time blip. I believe the RB numbers are going to stay down. Why? Primarily the rise of the RBBC and the increasing use of the passing game to move the ball. The NFL is changing, baby.
One more thing to note is that although the numbers at the top three in 2006 show a huge gulf of difference between them and the fourth spot, there's nowhere near the disparity in the 2007 numbers. (Ditto between first and second spots, BTW). However, after that, the numbers are bunched pretty well for both years, usually with no more than a point per game separating any position from the one before it.
What are the lessons - RBs are less valuable than they used to be, even the uberstuds have 'come back to the pack' and the difference between RB4 and RB-whatever isn't as large as we make it out to be in our heads.
Don't pay almost as much for the 4th RB as the 3rd RB and almost as much for the 5th as the 4th as if you're on some sort of 'slotting' system at an auction draft and don't assume you have to pick a guy 4th or 5th in a redraft because they're the 4th or 5th ranked RB.
"Okay, smart guy, then who do you draft in the middle of the first?," you ask. Well, if you're sure about your favorite RB's chances and you know he's the stud every down back, sure, take him, otherwise, consider Tom Brady. Dude scored 378* fantasy points last year. Assuming he comes back to earth a little bit, this is still essentially the same offense with a worse defense, meaning he may have to pass more and ain't coming back down that much. Brady is to QBs what LT is RBs - game changing for your roster, only more consistent and, if trends hold, higher scoring.
I'm going against conventional wisdom, here, I know. CW holds that there are 32 starting QBs and 12 fantasy teams. Not only are there enough to go around, but there are a lot of pretty good ones so they are nowhere near the commodity as an RB. I used that strategy myself last year in snagging Kitna and Romo - both undervalued and easily had for less than many RB3s.
Go against CW this year. Brady separated himself from second place by almost 100 points and from 10th place by 259 points - that's over 16 points per game difference. LT separated himself from the # 10 RB by a 'measly' 7.7 points per game. 16 points is a TD and a hundred yards. Having Brady as your QB is like having an extra stud WR on your roster every week. LT is worth a TD and 10 yards over the #10 RB which is nifty, but 'meh' by comparison.
*Points and stats per my ESPN Fantasy Football 2008 magazine.
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2 comments:
Blasphemy!! As a charter member of Our Lady of the Stud Running Back Drafting Theory I must denounce this heresy. Draft those wimpy WR and QBs if you will, but don't come crying when the RB-RB guys are battling it out in the playoffs!
Anderson was very up and down last year, Big Ben was WAY over his average in TDs, Carson has no bigger fan but between the arrests, no offensive line, and Rudi's knees being shot, I'm not paying the round 4 or 5 price for these guys.
And one last thing. The stud RBs may have disappointed last year, but that was an aberration. Add to that the fact that there are numerous question marks after the top 7-12, and you have the perfect reason to draft them early and often. Those drafting RBs for quality and depth are bound to achieve significant advantages (differentials) at that slot.
But it'll be fun to watch!
I have been a proponent of the stud-RB theory myself, but I put it to the test last year and had success in abandoning it. See my wrap-up here: http://fantasymustard.blogspot.com/2007/12/my-fantasy-season-pre-championship.html
I know last year was a down year for RBs. I think this year will be, too. Take your stud RB high in the first but when your studs are gone and you're deciding between the question marks of Marion Barber and Larry Johnson, you might as well take the sure thing and grab Brady.
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