Sunday, June 15, 2008

Ah-ha! Matt Schaub

I hereby nominate Matt Schaub for the QB you want to sneak onto your team.

He got hurt and missed 5 whole games and parts of three games last year. His stat lines don't look so great everything being all mixed together and averaged up. But let's look at the 8 games he started and finished:

16 of 22 for 225 with 1 TD and 1 INT
20 of 28 for 227 with 2 TD
27 of 33 for 236 with 1 TD and 2 INT
28 of 40 for 317 with 1 TD
20 of 34 for 294 with 0 TD and 1 INT
19 of 31 for 251 with 0 TD and 1 INT
21 of 33 for 293 and 2 TD
22 of 36 for 256 with 2 TD and 2 INT

Doubled to make a whole year and we get

346 of 514 for 4198 with 18 TD and 14 INT

And that's without Andre Johnson for four of those games, including both 0 TD games and two of the three games with just one TD. It's not hard to imagine adding two TDs to the stats above, doubling that for our 16 game projections and coming up with 22 TDs to go along with those 4200 years. That would have made him the 10th best QB last year.

So do you think he'll be a little more comfortable in his second year?

One more stat that speaks well - yards per attempt is 7.8. As I learned from my Rotowire magazine last year, good QBs are above 7.5. Last year, Tom Brady led with 8.3. In between them were Tony Romo, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Brett Favre. That's pretty nice company, eh?

If Schaub can avoid the injury bug, I like the value he represents. To help with that, his line should be better with a first round draft pick to compete at LT and a new C from Denver. There's competition at RG where the backup made a good case to be the starter in four games last year. Finally, the one-time LT-of-the-future is coming back from injury to compete for time. Oh, and Alex Gibbs is expected to help coach the line up. The running game should also improve with 'starter' Ahman Green back from injury and the speedy Steve Slaton to mix things up.

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