Tuesday, January 1, 2008

Top 10(ish) Lists

One thing I always miss is having access to last year's rankings. I don't have the drive to make exhaustive lists, but I can do a top 10 style.

All of these are based on Yahoo standard scoring:

Overall


Brady, 386
Romo, 302,
LT, 293
Manning, 282
Moss, 280
Westbrook, 259
Brees, 262
Derek Anderson, 262
Roethlisberger, 259
Favre, 251


1) Brady is in a class by himself, scoring almost a third more points (86) than the next guy and 135 more than the 10th guy.

2) seven of these players are QBs - three were highly ranked and four were not, including the unranked Derek Anderson. Go figure.

3) LT started slowly and finished the best. Westbrook made the folks who drafted him look really smart. Ditto Moss.

QB

Brady, 386

Romo, 302

Manning, 282

Brees, 262
Derek Anderson, 262
Roethlisberger, 259
Favre, 252
Hasselbeck, 243
Palmer, 241

Warner, 216
Cutler, 212
McNabb, 204
Kitna, 195
Eli, 194

1) Brady was worth 5 more points per game than Romo; 6.5 more than Peyton Manning.

2) Romo and Manning are significantly different from each other and the rest of the field – 20 points, or 1.25 points per game.

3) While Brees is worth 1.25 points per game more than Palmer, there is a gradual decline of QBs between them. Most importantly, a shrewd drafter could have had Roethlisberger, Hasselbeck or Favre significantly cheaper. Anderson was a waiver wire pick.

4) There was a pretty big drop off after Palmer.

5) Normally, I’d say there’s not much difference between the QB1 and QB12. This year – that assumption was way wrong.

WRs

Moss, 280

Owens, 218
Braylon Edwards, 212
Reggie Wayne, 198

Larry Fitzgerald, 188
Chad Johnson, 185
TJ Houshmandzadeh, 179
Colston, 176
Brandon Marshall, 170
Plaxico Burress, 167
Greg Jennings, 160
Wes Welker, 158
Torry Holt, 156
Kevin Curtis, 154*

1) Moss. Wow.

2) Braylon Edwards. I believe I read about how good he was but that he played for Cleveland. He was one of my WR4 gambles, but obviously not high enough on my list. Viva Derek Anderson.

3) Fitzgerald thanks Kurt Warner.

4) Chad and TJ – not much difference overall. Chad was very inconsistent. TJ was very consistent until late in the year. All in all, my team with TJ gave me less headache than the teams with Chad.

5) Colston – like Brees, he recovered well. He’ll be worthy of a top 10 pick next year.

6) Brandon Marshall – Denver was bad this year, but not Brandon Marshall. I’d be a little leery of Javon Walker eating into his stats next year.

7) Kevin Curtis gets 12 points for advancing an offensive fumble, but otherwise would finish only one spot lower. Roddy White, who scored 145, is on the list behind him, followed by Bobby Engram (who? Seattle’s #1 WR?!?!? Bizarro).

RBs

LT, 293

Westbrook, 269

Addai, 222
Adrian Peterson (Min), 222
Portis, 210
Jamal Lewis, 207

Marion Barber, 187
Willis McGahee, 174
Edge, 172
Gore, 170
Lynch, 167
Earnest Graham, 167
Jones-Drew, 161
Steven Jackson, 154

1) It’s hard to stop this list – I mean Kenny Watson of Cincy got 142; Ryan Grant got 146, the same as Fred Taylor. For different reasons, all were capable of much more. Of the three, Ryan Grant is the best risk next year. Willie Parker 141 despite having only 2 TDs.

2) Jackson disappointed, as did an awful lot of backs. LJ, Alexander, Willie Parker, Thomas Jones, Laurence Maroney, etc. ad nauseum.

3) Wow. He starts of terrible and still ends up on his own tier – LT rules the list, but is inconsistent.

4) Surprise! Adrian Peterson, Jamal Lewis, Marion Barber, Earnest Graham. Barber and Lewis will be worth a high pick next year.

5) What a messed up year at RB.


TEs

Witten, 147
Gates, 145
Gonzalez, 139
Winslow, 133
Cooley, 121
Dallas Clark, 121

1) This is who to draft next year. I’ll re-evaluate, obviously, but this list looks good.

2) After this is everyone else. The closest is Heath Miller, with 93 fantasy points, just 2/3s the points of Dallas Clark.

3) Despite the relative disparity between Clark and Miller, it’s only 2 points per game. Having one of the top six TEs sets a roster apart, but the value of the position is still not comparable to other positions. This year’s best TE wouldn’t make my top WR list.

Kickers

Mason Crosby, 156
Rob Bironas, 150
Nick Folk, 142
Josh Brown, 141
Gostkowski, 140
Hanson, 139
Gould, 138
Graham, 136
Kris Brown, 132
Phil Dawson, 129

1) This is another list that's hard to stop, so I just stopped at 10. For the most part, the kickers after Dawson are separated by 1-3 points.

2) Top kickers this year outperformed top TEs, but there are so many more kickers worth having. I’d still take a TE first.

3) Of this list, the last 4 are all free agents in one of my Yahoo leagues. Don’t sweat drafting kickers.

Defenses

San Diego, 206

Minnesota, 178
New England, 174
Seattle, 166
Dallas, 156
Tampa, 152
NYG, 152
Chicago, 152
Tenn., 151
Indianapolis, 150

1) San Diego did it with INTs, sacks and keeping opponents to low scores. I’m sure their opponents helped, but it’s not like they got a few fluke touchdowns or something.

2) Minn. and New England are surprises that I pegged.

3) Seattle and Tenn. surprise me being ranked this high.

4) Chicago was such a let down, I’m mildly surprised to find them still ranked in the top 10. This is a lesson to not reach too high for a defense.

5) Of these, the Giants and Tennessee are free agents in a Yahoo league of mine. Could you imagine a top 10 QB on the free agent list?

6) I'm a little surprised Green Bay is not on the list.

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