Pick'em Drafting This Year

Each year, the talent pool in the NFL is a little different. One of the keys to drafting a good team is figuring out before hand which players at the various positions might be available at a reasonable spot in your draft.

For example the well known 'Stud RB Theory' might be termed instead 'Stud RB Law'. It's just a fact that if you have two stud running backs you are far and away ahead of the pack at the position that scores the most and does it most consistently. HOWEVER, and this is the big however, how confident are you that that RB you're picking up in the second round is a stud? As the Geezurs have written before - it probably is better to take a top WR than a prayer at running back in the second just because some magazine said you're supposed to pick RB in the first two rounds.

I always base my draft strategy on the running backs and who I expect to be available when. This year, I have so far had the fortune of drafting in the top 3-4 almost every time. Hence most of the teams I drafted have Steven Jackson or Frank Gore on them. Odds are very good that I nailed the first round stud in those cases. But when round two rolls around - my remaining running back choices are usually names like Clinton Portis and Willis McGahee. Even if I think McGahee will have a good, if not spectucular year (which I do), I realize there's a risk - he's on a new team, in a new system and has a spotty track record. Chad Johnson, Tory Holt and Marvin Harrison, however are very often still available - they should put up similar or better fantasy numbers with less risk.

In the second league I care about, the office league, I drafted third and got the Frank Gore pick. I'll explain a bit about my reasoning with each pick, outlined below, which should help you understand why I did not follow the Stud RB Law and take two running backs first.:

1. - Gore. He's been my #3 RB all off season. No changing at the last minute.
2. - Chad Johnson. He's been my #1 WR all off season. Low risk, high ceiling. Available RBs were McGahee, Benson, Portis.
3. - Reggie Wayne. He's been my #2 WR for a while. McGahee gone, but I wouldn't have taken him anway. Why? Because there are still several RBs available that should put up 1000 and get 10 or more TDs, including my favorite sleeper at the position.
4. - Ronnie Brown. I was tempted to take my sleeper RB here, but I still believe Brown is an undervalued pick as high as the middle of the second. The fact is he's a 1000 yard rusher and should improve with the new coaching staff in Miami. I would have taken Antonio Gates here and rolled the dice my sleeper RB was still around 5 picks later and I would have been right. However, Gates went early in the third. (Too early, probably.)
5. - Brandon Jacobs. Finally I can breathe a whole lot easier. He's my low-risk, high-reward break out candidate. At the very least, he gets the goal line carries. At best, he keeps the woeful Reuben Droughns on the bench, which is a pretty good bet.

At this point in the draft, I'm set at RB and have a very good start at WR, where I need to start three. Some of the very top picks at TE and Defense are starting to go. I could have taken Baltimore or San Diego in the fifth and that would have been a good move if I wasn't sold on Jacobs and, honestly, just a little worried about Ronnie Brown (Miami is looking bad in the pre-season). So I bought myself some comfort at two key positions.

On the other hand, I need to count on my cheat sheet for finding quality a quality TE, DEF and QB. I'm not that worried because I think I know what to expect.


6. - New England. Eh, not the sexiest defense, but I'm hoping for great things and they're second on my list (Yeah, probably too high.). I considered waiting to pick up sleeper Ds Minnesota and Green Bay but I have more faith in New England. I really wanted to take WR Reggie Brown here, but missed him by one pick. There was no remaining WR I wanted to risk losing this D for.

7. - Chris Cooley. I would have taken Jon Kitna here, but I missed him by two picks. Waiting on Kitna was a calculated risk. I expect him to finish near the top 5 and he represents great mid-round value. Cooley, however, is my #2 TE based on ceiling. Every TE other than Gates is a risk, but I think Cooley represents the lowest risk for reward. I might have been able to wait another round, but he's getting more and more buzz. Besides, someone might have been reading this blog, seeing as how I missed Reggie Brown and Jon Kitna by just a few picks apiece.

8. - Deion Branch. Okay, I am worried about QB at this point just a little, but looking at the available QBs and WRs, I thought Branch was several cuts above the remaining WRs and I still needed my third starting WR. If worse comes to worse on the QB front - there are 32 teams with starting QBs and I can surely find one with a decent match up off the waiver wire.

9. - Tony Romo. My other consideration here was Jay Cutler or a kicker. There are plenty of kickers left and I would be okay with several of them, so the decision was Cutler or Romo and I opted for the more experienced QB. It's a close call, though. Cutler is looking good in the pre-season.


At this point in the draft, I am very confident in my starting lineup at RB, WR, TE and DEF. I paid the price for it in a riskier QB, but the fantasy point gap between the number 4 or 5 QB and the number 10 QB really isn't very large, which I've blogged before. Still, in the back of my mind, I remember that many years my teams struggle with inconsistent play at the QB slot, which is why I leaned toward experience when deciding between Romo and Cutler.

There is some piece of mind in drafting a Manning, Brady or Palmer, but the cost is enormous in the damage it does to your options at running back and WR. If I had taken Manning third, I would have had to go to war with McGahee and Brandon Jacobs at RB and probably Reggie Wayne and Marques Colston at WR. That might have worked for me, but I wouldn't have been as comfortable with it. The guy who did take Manning has Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones along with Marvin Harrison and Randy Moss. Again, it might work but Benson and Moss represent too much risk for me at those key positions.

10. - Jericho Cotchery. I'm still waiting on a starting K but still looking at the available WRs, I thought Cotchery represented great value here. He got 961 and 6 last year. If he repeats that, I have a very good option to cover bye weeks or fill in in case of injury. Nice pick, thank you very much. Cotchery is undervalued and will most likely be someone's WR2 or a high WR3 next year.

11. - Tatum Bell. I have had my eye on Michael Turner and Ladell Betts, who were both available, for RB4s, but Tatum Bell has at least six weeks to establish himself as the starter in Detroit if Kevin Jones starts the season on the PuP list as expected. A starting RB in the 11th was just impossible to pass up. Bell is undervalued. Sure, he's very unlikely to be a stud, but there's not many better risks for RB4s. Jerious Norwood, another RB4 on my board was not available but I would have passed on him anyway as the coaches plan to give Dunn the opportunity to keep his job.

12.-15. - Stephen Gostkowski, Matt Stover, Minnesota and Jason Campbell.

Picking kickers is mostly about picking the team they kick for. I never heard of Gostkowski before, but if he kicks for New England, he's bound to get his opportunities. Stover was the #6 kicker on Yahoo last year and the offense should improve this year, which also equals more opportunities. The ideal situation is to find an offense that can move the chains easily but struggles to punch it in. Jason Hansen of Detroit might be that golden kicker this year.

As for Minnesota and Campbell, both are very undervalued and backups. If I completely miss their value, who cares.