Pick'em Drafting This Year, Part II

Yesterday, I explained why I picked who at which turn. I'd like to provide some take-away advice for your draft this year.

1) There are good, but not great, RBs available as late as rounds 6 or 7. Don't panic too early for taking your second RB. Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson, Brandon Jacobs, Edge, Carnell Williams, Ronnie Brown are all expected to be as close to a primary back as any team has these days, meaning they're not in a dreaded RBBC. Rank 'em how you want or trust whatever cheat sheet you got. Many of them will be there after you take your second and third pick.

2) After the top 6 or 7 picks of the first round, think about picking up studs at other positions. So if you draft 8th-12th, rather than deciding between that 8th-12th RB on your list, go ahead and take a stud WR and follow it up with a stud WR next round. I will forgive you if you take a top 3-4 QB in the first or second round.

3) Do not panic on QB selections. Yes, there is some piece of mind in having Manning or Palmer on the roster, but most years they are not THAT much better than the #10 QB. The drop off from LT to the #10 RB, however, is drastic. Kitna and a couple other decent options will be available as late as round 6, 7 or even 8 in some leagues. If all else fails, roll the dice with a couple long shots. Roethlisberger is a gamble I like this year. Jason Campbell is my pick for a round 15 QB to be an absolute baseline, consistent option. (If you've read anything on this blog you already know this.)

4) Do not panic on TEs. There are more and more quality TEs every year. The depth goes beyond Gates, Gonzalez, Shockey and Heap. In fact Chris Cooley, Vernon Davis and Jason Witten are all good bets to do better than Gonzalez. Kellen Winslow, too. And Alge Crumpler. And maybe Heath Miller. Etc. If you are not in a position to grab Gates, wait a few rounds and take the best of what's left.

5) If you're comfortable with who you expect to be available later, take the risk of losing a player you like to grab a stud. I would absolutely take Gates in the third if I somehow ended up with a Joseph Addai and Tory Holt (or betters) for my first and second picks. As a counter example, I grabbed Brandon Jacobs as my RB3 one round after taking my RB2 not just because I like him, but because I am not firmly sold on my RB2. I didn't want to risk losing Jacobs to take the available options at other positions when my pick came up.

6) Chicago, Baltimore and whatever defenses you think are sure bets ARE worth grabbing in the mid rounds as soon as you're comfortable with a few core picks at RB and WR. BUT DO NOT GAMBLE on an early defense. Most sites and magazines tell you to wait until next to last or last round because there are so many defenses. Indeed, there are 32 and one of them on the wire is probably facing a crummy team any given week. If you miss a top one, don't sweat it.

7) Minimize risk and maximize upside. I love Laurence Maroney's chances to be a top 5 RB, but I'm not taking him there. For starters, he is an injury risk, then he is an unproven sophomore and finally there's mumblings of spelling him at the goal line. You want to take him late in the first or early second and hope he becomes a top 5 back, rather than take him fifth and pray he doesn't disappoint. Travis Henry is another back in the same category. On the flip side, Larry Johnson and Brian Westbrook pretty much have to reproduce last year's stats to warrant being picked in the top five. As there are reasons to expect they won't, let them go to the next guy if you have a top 5 pick.

8) Be aware of ranking trends. There are two trends here: one, there are always a double handful of hyped up players too high on everyone's board, and; second, there are always undervalued players who lack the name recognition or play on weaker teams that are available later. Don't get sucked in by the hype and identify solid plays you can get a couple rounds later. Vincent Jackson is a favorite sleeper WR this year and I think people are taking him too high because he's in all the magazines as a sleeper. Conversely, Deion Branch disappointed last year so he's way down the rankings but if he's ever going to be a 1,000-yard receiver, this is the year as he's tops on the depth chart in Seattle.

9) Avoid getting caught in draft-day trends. When someone drafts Manning, the next two or the QBs usually go off the board in very short order. Ditto Antonio Gates, Chicago and Steve Smith. That's not so bad, but usually someone gets caught in the trend and makes a suspect pick. Don't follow the herd off the cliff. If the cream of the crop is gone, the grass is greener in the other pasture. Enough metaphors for you? If you are targeting an available player at a position in a run, take him, but
don't draft a position just because the guy ahead of you did.

10) Limit exposure to rookie and sophomore 'hot' players. Looking at Frank Gore, the Bombers paid less for Gore in an auction league than some paid for hot rookie players like Laurence Maroney, Deangelo Williams, Joseph Addai and Reggie Bush. That was a mistake, but that's what happens when everyone is hyping the same players. For some reason, we're all hoping that the new rookie is the next LT.

11) Last, but not least, is study or participate in drafts. I don't like the mock drafts because people like me get on there to see if they can get all the Houston Texans or whatever crazy mess we dream up. Even the professional mock drafts are often cold exercises in some site's representative blindly using his rankings. So, uh, be unfair to some Yahoo or Foxsports leagues and create some practice teams. There are several benefits: one, work out the nerves that come from uncertainty; two, learning which players tend to fall to value positions; and finally, spotting and correcting your own mistakes in drafting. For example, I realized that a lot of the backups I had been targeting shared bye weeks with my starters.


This is not a tip so much, but an observation. All you can do is the best you can. There is definitely some luck in winning fantasy football, particularly in a pick 'em league. Guys get injured, players disappoint, some WR comes from nowhere to the top 10 and that crazy waiver wire hound takes him before the halftime show starts. Enjoy your draft!