WR Run Down

I hit the RB high value and risk players last week. In that vein, here are my WRs to look out for, whether positive or negative.

High Risk

There aren’t many WRs on the top of draft boards that are that much riskier than any other WR. The exceptions are:

Larry Fitzgerald – As a consensus top 10 WR, (two Football Guys staffers rank him #2) Fitzgerald is too much of a risk to finish well outside the top 10. You can list the reasons – a new coach known for running the ball, a first year starting signal caller, a pro bowl WR opposite him to share receptions with and three missed games last year due to a hamstring. I like Fitzgerald, but I will reduce expectations until I know which WR Matt Leinart likes to throw to and until I see if Fitz can keep up the receptions under new OC Ken Whisenhunt.

Roy Williams – He will probably remain a top 20 WR just because OC Mike Martz is a pass happy mad man, but this consensus WR1 (top 10 to 12 on most boards) only finished in the top 10 once, and that was last year. With rookie WR Calvin Johnson supposedly a phenom waiting to bust out on the NFL, Williams’ stats are bound to decline somewhat from last year’s.


Honorable Mention High Risk

Randy Moss – While he is supposedly the best WR on the Patriots’ roster, it’s been more than three years since he was elite. Moss is in the honorable mention category, though, because I think most fantasy players will be wary of risking too much on a 30-year-old in a “spread the ball around” passing attack. Someone will invariably counter with “but Brady has never had an elite receiver before.” The jury is out on whether Moss is still elite plus Donte Stallworth had a higher YPC last year than Moss ever had so just maybe Moss won’t get all the deep balls on this team, at least until Stallworth hurts himself again.

Anquan Boldin – See Larry Fitzgerald’s write-up above. At least Boldin will be available later in the draft, so the risk isn’t as high.

Calvin Johnson/Mike Furrey – Like Roy Williams’ value, Furrey’s stock will certainly fall off if CJ is as good as advertised. That said, someone somewhere is going to see a 1000 yard wide receiver still on the board in the sixth and ‘steal’ Mike Furrey. As for CJ – rookie WRs are really bad bets.

High Reward

There are several potential high reward WRs this year. Among them:

TJ Houshmandzadeh – Yeah, there’s not really that much upside with TJ, but I’ve seen him ranked from 10th to 19th. If he falls outside the top 10 WRs, you should feel very comfortable taking him. TJ finished 10th in fantasy scoring last year, an improvement from 14th the year before, despite missing two games in both seasons. He had three 100 yard games, three 90 yard games and 9 TDs spread pretty evenly through last year. The absence of Chris Henry should mean more balls for TJ. Finally, TJ had 11 targets inside the 10 yard line, compared with 1 for Chad Johnson so it looks like Carson Palmer is putting more trust in TJ. I think TJ and Ocho Cinco are more of a 1A and 1B pairing and should be drafted closely together. If there’s a low risk WR primed to make the top 7 or 8 by the end of the season, it’s TJ.


Reggie Brown – Get Reggie Brown on your roster and thank me later. He is entering his third year and will be McNabb’s primary target after putting up 800 yards and 8 TDs last year while splitting opportunities with Donte Stallworth AND having to switch QBs mid-stream. McNabb is reportedly healthy, Stallworth is gone and Brown only has to compete with Hank Basket, Greg Lewis and Kevin Curtis for touches. While those three are capable WR2s, Brown will no doubt be the main target in Philly. Currently ranked in the 20s on most draft boards, Brown should finish in the top 10.



Honorable Mention High Reward

Lee Evans – The #7 WR at the end of last season is currently ranked and being drafted around #15, though his composite ranking on Football Guys has creeped back into the top 10 very recently. He excelled last year as the top WR on his team. Both he and JP Losman are growing together. Better yet, I expect rookie RB Marshawn Lynch will force defenses to pay more attention to a receiver coming out of the backfield, giving Evans even more room to excel. Temper your expectations somewhat, however, as the Bills have a brutal schedule this year. Still, Evans is at least a low end WR1 that can be had at a WR2 draft spot.

Vincent Jackson – Dubbed the leading WR on the Chargers roster by his coaches and entering his third year, Jackson is currently ranked abysmally low on draft charts. Football Guys has him at #40 and Beckett’s Fantasy has him at #30. However, he is an honorable mention rather than a must-have high reward WR because the Bolts like to pass to Antonio Gates more than any one receiver. Plus Eric Parker actually had more production last year. Jackson may be a ‘sexy’ sleeper pick this year, so while you should like his upside, don’t get too excited by the spin. He can be safely taken as the 30th WR and should finish better than that.