I don't want to step on the geezur's draft advice toes, but this was on my mind...
Sure, we all want Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer on our fantasy team and very few of us would turn our nose up at Tom Brady, but outside of those three, you would be well advised to wait until late to get your starting QB.
Many others have noted the fantasy value of a second tier quarterback compared with the value of a less flashy QB is not that great. My 17th ranked QB is 18 points behind my 8th ranked QB. David Dodds on Football Guys has his 17th ranked QB about 19 points behind his 8th ranked QB. Meanwhile the dropoff from 8 to 17 in running backs is a projected 25 points, according to Dodds. This doesn’t take into account the fact you need two running backs.
Consider this. If you take a QB in the first round, your RB1 choices just went from Larry Johnson or Shaun Alexander to Travis Henry or Thomas Jones. And in the third round, you still need a starting running back for RB2. Would you like Deuce McAllister or DeAngelo Williams? And the top tier WRs are already coming off the board. Suffice it to say, taking a QB in the first three rounds really hurts your odds of fielding decent players at the other positions.
I'm working on a slightly longer analysis of QBs that might be avaiable in the middle rounds of your draft. I hope to have it posted shortly.
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