QBs Available Late

Three of the worthwhile QBs available after most everyone has their starting QB are Matt Hasselbeck, Jon Kitna and Ben Roethlisberger, though there may be others. As I've recently pointed out, there's not that much separation between some QBs taken in the top of the draft and one some would consider a backup. While I typically think in terms of snake drafts, this also holds true in auction formats. If you can get three-fourths of Peyton Manning's production for one-eighth the cost, you have more money to spend on other positions.

Hasselbeck

I am less a fan of Hasselbeck than the rest of the planet, apparently, but my point still holds. He’s serviceable and available late.

One thing in Hasselbeck’s favor is the thinking that with Shaun Alexander wearing down, the Seahawks will have to rely more on the passing game. I temper my expectations here because of the relatively unproven WR corps that’s left in Seattle and I don’t want to write Alexander off after his first-ever missed-game injury. He is just turning 30 this year and only has 7 years of NFL experience.

I put Hasselbeck’s ceiling at 24 TDs and 3400 yards but predict he’ll have about 3300 yards and 22 TDs based on what he has accomplished in the past and what he is likely to accomplish without Darrel Jackson and Jerramy Stevens. This slots him at 17th on my draft board. (By contrast, a survey of six magazines and websites gives him a composite ranking of 10.1.)

Kitna

Kitna's stats from last year, 4200 and 21, were no fluke. Martz’s offenses since the glory days of Kurt Warner (who had 42, 37 and 37 TD totals) were consistently in the range of 4300-4600 yards and 23-24 TDs with Mark Bulger at the helm. Kitna has an offensive system that is theoretically capable of 4600 yard and high-30s TD totals, but 4300 and 23 is a very reasonable bottom. Is Kitna as good as Bulger? Well, he was within 2 touchdowns and a few yards of equaling a Bulger-like stat total last year, which brings me Calvin Johnson.

You may not realize that CJ is 6'5", 235 lbs and runs a 4.35 40. I forget his leap measurement, but it was monster, too. In other words, CJ is not only a threat to get behind a defense but he can out jump and out muscle defenders in the red zone. His skills will demand defensive attention, making the Lions more effective.

My projection of 4300 yards and 24 TDs for Kitna is modest and ties him with Marc Bulger for fifth in my rankings. (A survey of the same six magazines and websites gives Kitna a composite ranking of 9.8)

Also know that Detroit picked up two new guards and a tackle, all of whom started for their teams last year and all of whom are projected to start in Detroit. Maybe Kitna won’t get sacked 63 times this year.

Roethlisberger

Ben Roethlisberger was a favorite fantasy QB to draft last year and then disappointed with only 3500 yards and 18 TDs and a ridiculous 23 interceptions. I'm proud to say I warned people. Fantasy Nation is down on Big Ben this year, which makes it time for the astute fantasy player to roll the dice on him.

Rotowire Fantasy Football Guide points out that Ben's problems can be traced to the first few games of the year and two games following a concussion in Atlanta. In those five games, he threw 14 interceptions and 2 touchdowns. Ouch. If you take his last 8 games and extrapolate from that, he would have had over 3400 yards and 22 TDs, but still with 18 INTs. In other words, Big Ben is perfectly capable of being a serviceable QB.

But he has upside, too. The new coaching team is promising to open up the playbook with more 4 receiver sets. The team has a shiny new 6'7" TE from Minnesota to complement Heath Miller. Hines Ward is still around and Santonio Holmes enters his second year after an impressive 800 yard, 2 TD rookie season.

Summary

Barring injury, Kitna, Roethlisberger and Hasselbeck are reasonably ‘safe’ plays. If you wait to get one of them, your QB2 options might include Rex Grossman, JP Losman, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart and even Eli Manning, several of which may not even be drafted, but all of which should at the very least be serviceable. This, of course, is the point of the article. Don’t follow the herd and draft a QB because the teams picking before you just did. You’ll survive and probably prosper if you wait.

The Mustard: Jon Kitna is worth waiting for while you stock up on starting positions in rounds 1-6. But if you miss him, Hasselbeck and Roethlisberger are both a decent option to provide some stability at the QB position for you.

Matt Hasselbeck may even put up a career year if Deion Branch is a capable replacement for Darrell Jackson and if DJ Hackett turns out to be the red zone target scouts believe he might. In other words, you could do worse than Hasselbeck.

Ben Roethlisberger I actually like a little better than Hasselbeck, not because he's proven he's better, but because I am attracted to the possibility that his new offense gives him the more upside of the two.