QB Run Down

In preparing for this article, I wanted to do something other than just repeat the obvious. Any fantasy footballer should be able to figure out some QBs are more injury prone and rookie and second-year QBs are risks. I've also put out a few articles on just how little difference there is between top QBs and a QB taken late in the draft. QBs are generally low risk all the way around, so even by dubbing one a "high" risk, it's very relative. Starting QBs don't generally fall off the face of the fantasy football earth the way a wide receiver or even a running back might.

That said, there are three QBs that are a "high" risk.

High Risk

Michael Vick - Just in case you haven't heard, he's probably going to prison and there's a ton of pressure on the NFL and the Falcons to keep him off the field if not out of football. 'Nuff said here.

Drew Brees - Brees benefited from schedule, scheme and the playmakers around him last year. The Saint's schedule doesn't look too intimidating this year either, but the NFL has a whole year of film to study for plays and tendencies and while Bush and McAllister are still a good bet, Colston is a second year WR and that is a risky proposition in itself. There isn't a real veteran presence on the WR corps to fall back on if Colston does struggle.

According to the Rotowire Fantasy Football Guide, Brees was 5 for 5 on passes over 40 yards with three of those for TDs and he had 14 TDs on 52 pass attempts longer than 20 yards. That sort of freakish efficiency is not likely to be duplicated. Inside the 10 yard line, Brees converted just 22 percent of his attempts. "Good QBs convert about 40 percent of these throws into TDs," says the magazine.


Jake Delhomme - With David Carr around, a year like last year could lead to a QB controversy quickly.


Honorable Mention High Risk

Injuries and playing experience, coupled with likely draft position, warrant the mention of players such as Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Vince Young, Marc Bulger and Matt Leinart. These QBs are likely to miss games due to injury or have very inconsistent performance.

Jay Cutler barely merits his own mention as he is sometimes taken above more proven QBs.


High Reward

Like the High Risk category - things are relative.

Vince Young - While he is also in the Honorable Mention High Risk category, no other QB is likely to run for as many yards and TDs, earning stats like a mid-level RB while at the same time putting up stats like a QB, albeit his passing stats will likely be sub-par. His completion percentage was a mediocre 51.5 and there aren't any notable receivers on the roster. A running QB is also an injury risk. If you take Young, you could have a top 5 QB, or a bottom rung QB. Pick a backup quickly just in case.

Tom Brady - You wouldn't think the third rated QB would be in the high reward category, but all things being relative, he rates the nomination. The Pats picked up several playmakers at WR this offseason and Laurence Maroney can still catch out of the backfield. Brady has a shot at being the top ranked QB by the end of the year and he's never missed a game due to injury.

Ben Roethlisberger - Ben was robbed last year. A near-fatal accident, emergency appendectomy and a concussion combined to destroy his stats. This year will be the year Ben should have had last year, only better with a new OC promising to open up the playbook and run a more pass friendly offense. Roethlisberger is a very good 'sleeper' QB with a high ceiling and a low floor compared to his draft position.

Honorable Mention High Reward

Rex Grossman - If Grossman can eliminate whatever it is that lead to the few horrendous games he had last year, he will be a great value. Fantasy nation appears to have forgotten that for the first five games last year, Grossman was a very serviceable QB with a 4 TD game performance to his credit. Still, odds are, he will likely be just a good QB2 and I wouldn't want to count him as my starting QB.