My Second Fantasy Team Recap

For a second test case on drafting, I allowed CBSSportsline.com to draft a fantasy team for me entirely on autodraft with no changes to the rankings whatsoever. That's right, I registered and walked away until after the draft.

My resulting team:

Jay Cutler
Larry Johnson
Clinton Portis
Reggie Wayne
Javon Walker
Deion Branch
Vernon Davis
Nate Kaeding
Eagles

With reserves:
Chad Pennington
Lamont Jordan
Anthony Gonzalez (WR, Ind)
Eddie Kennison
Martin Grammatica

First Impression:

Yuck. My QB, both starting RBs and two of my starting WRs all have question marks. On the one hand, if everything goes well for these guys, this may be a very good team, but I don't like the risk for the upside of several of them.

Cutler is going into his first full season as QB and that usually means inconsistency with limited upside. Larry Johnson, as discussed here previously, is statistically likely to lose several hundred yards and touchdowns following his 416 rush season last year, including about a 66% chance of missing games, and that's without considering the fact he lost another Pro Bowl lineman this offseason, his coach wants to spell him more and he may hold out. As I've already said, I expect Clinton Portis will split more carries with Ladell Betts than many people think. Regarding Deion Branch, if he nets 1000 yards and 6 TDs, it will be the first time for either event. Javon Walker will suffer the same inconsistencies as Cutler, his QB, and wasn't targeted overly much by Cutler last year.

My reserves are fair on balance but do not have the upside that you want with late round "sleeper" picks. Lamont Jordan is the exception as he has a chance to return to bell cow, 1000 yard RB status now that Dominic Rhodes is suspended for the first four games of the season.

Round By Round:

Round 1 - My team was selected to draft sixth and with the sixth pick on round 1, Larry Johnson was drafted. In a draft with more seasoned fantasy players LJ at sixth might be necessary, but in this case, Frank Gore was still available. Gore has more upside and lower risk.

Round 2 - Clinton Portis was selected. If Portis resumes his status as the top RB on his team, he will be a good value. Still, I don't like risk in rounds 1-4 or 5. Looking at the backs taken after Portis, I have to say I would most likely have taken a WR at this position.

Round 3 - Reggie Wayne was selected. Good pick.

Round 4 - Javon Walker. I would have preferred Walker's blend of risk and upside as my WR3, especially since Lee Evans was still available.

Round 5 - Jay Cutler was selected. Jon Kitna, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo and Matt Hasselbeck were available, with Hasselbeck finally taken in round 8. Roethleisberger went in round 11. There was no need to take Cutler here with those QBs still on the board. Reggie Brown would have been my choice here, even though all TEs but Gates and Gonzalez were still available. With so many of the very good TEs left, one would be available in round 6.

Round 6 - Deion Branch was selected. I could have had Alge Crumpler, the last of the top TEs, and tried to find workable WR3 later.

Round 7 - Nate Kaeding was selected. Interestingly, Carnell Williams was the very next pick. If I had been drafting and I had realized a starting RB was still available this late, taking him would have been a no-brainer. I would have taken him sooner, probably. That said, Kaeding was the first kicker selected, so theoretically, he should be a foundation of the roster.

Round 8 - Vernon Davis. Another good pick, he should emerge as a true TE1 this year, or at least very close to it.

Round 9 - Philadelphia. Eh, there wasn't much left by this point. Philly should be serviceable. I would have preferred to take the defensive plunge sooner to get a top tier DST, though. Ravens and Bears both went in round 7 and I could have had the Bears. In round 8, I could have had the Jaguars. A kicker at 7 was too early, for sure.

Round 10 - Lamont Jordan. The safest RB3 left, so at this spot, the pick is good.

Round 11 - Chad Pennington was selected. Chad Pennington should not be on a roster in a 12 team league. He has no upside and although he was the 16th ranked QB last year, he isn't consistent enough to count on. He had 17 TDs and 16 INTs last year, with about 3350 yards passing. Jason Campbell, JP Losman and Rex Grossman were available and they still are, actually. Brandon Jackson, who should win the starting RB job in Green Bay, would have been a better pick here.

Round 12 - Eddie Kennison? DJ Hackett would have been better.

Round 13 - Anthony Gonzalez. Projected to be the third WR in Indianapolis, he has some value, but probably not much. The third WR gets up to 500 yards most years, but not always. Brandon Stokely did have a 1000 yard, 10 TD season, but that was Manning's once-in-lifetime season. Finally, he's a rookie WR. In other words, Gonzalez is not likely to break out. No upside. He's not worth picking unless you think Harrison or Wayne is going to be injured.

Round 14 - Martin Grammatica. You know what, he may be 103 years old, but if he's kicking for Dallas, he should get his opportunities.

In Sum:

This draft failed to limit risk with early picks and failed to maximize return with mid to late round picks. If more than one or two players fail to produce at their projected level, it will be a long season.

Interesting note:

The man who drafted Steven Jackson in round 1, took Tory Holt in round 2 - exactly what I wanted to do with my first fantasy team on NFL.com. In round 3 he nabbed Bulger, giving him top tier players at three positions, but it fell apart after that. His RB 2 is Adrian Peterson of Minnesota. He has no RB3. It might be interesting to see how he pulls out the year.