Fantasy Draft 3 Recap

For my third fantasy draft, held last week, I wanted to see what my team would end up looking like if I did not hold fast to the notion of taking an RB in round 2. I drafted fourth, which makes this decision easier as the second pick comes toward the end of round 2 -- there just aren't many RBs left.

My results were:

Jon Kitna
Frank Gore
Brandon Jacobs
Chad Johnson
Terrell Owens
Reggie Brown
Vernon Davis
Jason Elam
New England

with reserves

Rex Grossman
Carnell Williams
Brandon Jackson
Santonio Holmes
Drew Bennett
Matt Stover

Initial Impression

My first impression is that this is a very good team. I balanced the relative security of a top RB, two top WRs, and a 4000 yard QB with the upside of a couple decent WRs and two starting, if not highly sought after, running backs and another running back that should be starting before the season gets too old.

I was particularly excited by my first three picks of Gore, Chad Johnson and Terrell Owens. The fear of what would be available for my second RB was tangible during the draft, but with the options I was able to find I am confident one or two will pan out. Later in the draft, I left Kitna on the board for a couple tense rounds while I snagged a top defense and the last decent TE on the board. This turned out to be a good move because not only did I still get my QB target, but as soon as I took Vernon Davis, one guy announced that was his next pick.

Rounds 1-3:

Addai surprisingly went at three, leaving me Gore at fourth. I think Addai is a very safe pick for a sophomore RB, but he is clearly becoming a favorite. LT and Steven Jackson were 1 and 2. The rest of the first round was a very predictable event with the following taken in order: LJ, Alexander, Willie Parker, Brian Westbrook, Travis Henry and Peyton Manning. The Manning owner took Reggie Bush with the first pick of the second. Finally, a round one that looks like seasoned fantasy footballers were doing the picking.

In the second round, I was starting to get excited that perhaps Laurence Maroney would fall through cracks, but he was taken three spots before. The guy before me took Steve Smith. With no 'sure' bets left at RB and plenty of decent bets available later, I took Chad Johnson - the top WR on my board. I know Steve Smith is usually ranked #1, but he could face turmoil at the QB position and will be breaking in a new #2 WR this year, leaving more double coverage on him.

Reggie Wayne went two picks before me in the third round, but I was still ecstatic to take TO. Willis McGahee was a minor temptation here. McGahee finished with 990 and 6 last year, totals bound to improve in Baltimore, which has a good OL and allowed the decrepit Jamal Lewis to gain 1100 and 9. But again, there are still starting RBs left and TO should improve on the 1180 and 13 TDs he had last year. He seemed the better value.

Round 4-6:

I reached a bit for Brandon Jacobs in the fourth but I was getting antsy to ensure I had my second RB. Edgerrin James went more than a full round later and would have been the safer pick, albeit with less upside. Lee Evans would have been a good pick here too.

In round 5, I was very pleased to take Reggie Brown. He finished with more than 800 yards and 8 TDs last year while sharing time. The third-year WR is the top option for Donovan McNabb this year and is a potential top 5 WR. Because of his awesome upside, low downside and the fact my roster was already solid at WR, Brown made the ideal third WR and round 5 pick.

I said after a previous draft that Carnell Williams was taken way too low in the seventh. Here he sat for me in the sixth when it was time to shore up my RB corps. The top QBs were long gone, as were the top several TEs and even the Chicago D. My best choices were Marshawn Lynch, Baltimore and Williams. Lynch's bye week coincided with Gore's, so I selected Williams and hoped Baltimore would fall to me in the 7th.

Between the RBs, Lynch's unknown role and upside strangely holds more appeal for me than the known commodity of Williams. Still, Williams is skilled and if he can stay healthy is more than capable of exceeding his rookie stats from two years ago.

In the seventh, I took New England. Baltimore didn't make it. By this point in the draft, I was very worried about losing Kitna, a fear that started building with the Williams selection in the sixth, but everyone had QBs and I was hoping for defensive team run to distract people.

Rounds 7-15

Eight of the next 12 picks following my seventh were TEs or defenses, leaving me with the choice of taking the last decent TE on my board or Kitna. I took Vernon Davis here.

In round 9, I finally took Kitna and started to breath easier. My starting roster was complete except for a kicker, I had a good option at RB3 and I was comfortable enough with my late round options. I had decided after this pick that the draft was a success.

My next picks were

Santonio Holmes - He could be a break-out WR this year in Pittsburgh, which may put up more passing yards this year and features an aging Hines Ward.

Brandon Jackson - He should get the majority of carries in Green Bay. Taking Jackson cost me DJ Hackett and Vincent Jackson, two my late round WR sleepers, but I'm stacked at WR and wanted more insurance at RB.

Drew Bennett - Bennett, could be decent in St. Louis with Isaac Bruce hitting age 35 and having missed a lot of the year before last.

Jason Elam, Matt Stover - Kickers started going in round 9 but Elam and Stover are no slouches. Elam was the #2 kicker last year and the #3 the year before. Stover was 8th last year and #1 two years ago. Both of their offenses should be better, which will put them in range more often.

Finally, Rex Grossman - This pick elicited a 'what the heck' comment. As QB2, in the 15th round, Grossman is a potential knockout pick. He was a very serviceable fantasy option through his first five games last year. The remainder of the season he was usually either stellar or abysmal. Here's hoping he pulls it together and makes me look like a genius.

Final Thoughts

This was my best draft.

I lack the true, no-doubt sure thing at RB2, but if you've read my blog, you know I'm high on Brandon Jacobs as a low-risk, high reward player. My third RB faces Tennessee and Arizona during the weeks I need him to play. Santonio Holmes faces Seattle and Cincy when I need him to play. Bennett will see Arizona in week 5 when I need him and in week 8 he faces Cleveland if he proves a better option than Holmes. One of my kickers will be a top option, most likely. I'm a little nervous having to rely on Vernon Davis, but he should be okay.