Bad Newz, Mike

According to 680 The Fan guests here in Atlanta, Mike Vick is almost certainly going to be found guilty if he goes to trial and is almost certainly going to get jail time, probably within six months.

One call-in guest this morning, whose name escapes me, said the feds have a 95% conviction rate in similar cases. I'm not sure how he defined similar, but in-studio guest Manny Aurora generally agreed that the federal prosecuters' conviction rates are exceedingly good for the prosecution and bad for the defense. I think it was he who said a defense lawyer is doing good if they win one or two federal cases out of 10.

Aurora, who represents Pacman Jones, a doctor affiliated with the murder/murder/suicide case of wrestler Chris Benoit, and others, stated that high profile defendants are LESS likely to get friendly plea agreements because of public perception since the OJ trial that celebrities get off easy. Also, he said the Vick case is likely to be a 'crown jewel' in some prosecutor's crown and the 'lesser' defendants will almost certainly provide evidence against Vick for their own benefit.

It looks like Ol' Ron Mexico is going to prison and the trial, according to Aurora, could begin in 6 months. Between now and then, Vick will be required to attend all manner of proceedings and cannot, like most state courts, just send an attorney.

The Mustard: Vick is almost certainly going to prison. If he listens to his attorney's probable advice, he will take some form of plea deal that will probably still contain some jail time. This might happen within six months. And even if Vick is not suspended, which is still a subject of debate among the 'experts', the constant appearances before judges and such will certainly impact preparedness. Vick is officially not worth drafting. Neither are backup QBs Joey Harrington or DJ Shockley UNLESS coach Petrino picks and sticks with one of them AND the Falcon's offense clicks this year. Too many variables, thank you very much.