Running Back Run Down

Any magazine or website will tell you that LT is the top running back and almost all will rank Steven Jackson and Frank Gore two and three. Opinions start to diverge from there.


Yes, I have a list but my rankings are ultimately only as likely as anyone else’s to be accurate by the end of the season. So rather than just throw out a plain old list, I will detail the high risk and high reward players on my radar that I think the fantasy world might miss. My nominees for running back gambles, good and bad, are:


High Risk:


Brian Westbrook – He is ranked way too high this year. For starters, he has never finished a whole season and has missed as many as four games. Second, last year’s rushing total of 1217 is his first over 1000 and his second over 617. Finally, it was week 10 that Westbrook started getting 20 plus carries regularly, coinciding with the loss of McNabb. McNabb is back. You still want Westbrook because the man is a threat, the primary carrier on his team and catches a lot of passes, but because last year was a very explainable abberation, you want him as your RB2, not your RB1


Maurice Jones-Drew – I have a hard time thinking people are really going to draft him as an RB1. Nonetheless, I’ve seen him ranked as high as 9th. Jacksonville paid Fred Taylor millions to return, not the sign of confidence I would like to see if I’m drafting Jones-Drew high. At best, you’re looking at an RBBC situation. At worst, Greg Jones gets some goal line work as the third man in the committee. Jones-Drew is an RB3/RB4 with the prayer he gets the goal line work and enough carries to justify that being picked that high. Don’t be the one who drafts this guy in the first three rounds. Heck, don't draft him. There has got to be either a more consistent, lower risk RB3 or an RB3 with more upside available.


Honorable Mention High Risk:


Reggie Bush – He is a second year back and Deuce McAllister is still on the roster. His rushing and receiving yardage are all over the map. His TD total, (8) is skewed by a 4 TD game against the weak Niners. In short, if you count on him to put up points, you're going to be let down a lot. In a keeper league, yeah, hold on for when Deuce is gone. In a redraft, you’re going to have to get him in an RB1 slot, which if I had to wager on it, I’d say will turn out to be a mistake. Barring injury to Deuce, Bush is a mid-range RB2 at best not because he isn't talanted, but because other backs are in better situations and will be more consistent producers.


Larry Johnson – For reasons I’ve already detailed on this blog, he’s still an RB1, but he’s not going to repeat last year. His YPC and attempts will both drop even if he doesn’t hold out and isn’t traded. Grit your teeth and let him go to the next guy until late in the first round. Then that guy can worry about whether LJ will hold out or even make it through the season.


High Reward:


There are a lot of potential candidates in this category. If you do your homework, it is a good year to consider a top tier QB or WR mid to late in round 2 and roll the dice on running backs in the third and fourth rounds.


Brandon Jacobs – If there’s a Frank Gore this year, it could be Jacobs. The naysayers abound saying that Jacobs is going to split carries and/or get injured. On Football Guys, his composite ranking is 27th. Mark Wimer ranks him 41st. Well Westbrook has some competition for carries and we know he gets injured a lot. But unlike Westbrook, Jacobs is the goal line back. Jacobs is also going to start the season as the primary back and the job is his to lose. Even though I don’t think Jacobs will net 2100 yards from scrimmage like Gore, I still like his chances of being a top 10 back.


Thomas Jones – Did you know that the Jets were seventh in rushing attempts last year? Jones is better than Leon Washington and should be able to stay in on third downs.


Cedric Benson – Did you know the Bears were fifth in rushing attempts last year? I think Adrian Peterson (the other Adrian Peterson) will get some third down work, but Benson gets the lion’s share of the touches and the goal line work.


Honorable Mentions High Reward:


Marshawn Lynch – The rookie is the starter and looks to be used as an all-purpose threat in running and passing situations. He’s still a rookie, though. You can get him as an RB3 and he will probably be worth an RB2.


*Ronnie Brown – Another player with rankings all over the map, I expect most will rank Brown between 15 and 20 on their RB board. However, Brown has no competition for carries on the Miami roster, is talented and is now under the coaching of Cam Cameron, who’s offense led the NFL in scoring last year, oh, and had the NFL’s leading rusher, Ladanian Tomlinson. The OL is still not expected to be great, but Brown is worth up to a high end RB2 slot so there’s a little value to be had by taking him late in the second. If the Phins do something to improve their line before the start of the season, Brown is an RB1. (I was just looking at the stats on Football Outsiders - the Miami line is 9th best in power situations, Brown's forte anyway, and 10th best in runs over 10 yards. What is killing Brown is getting hit in the backfield. His line is 28th in that category.)

*Carnell Cadillac Williams - Similar to Brown, Caddy hasn't yet lived up to his full potential and Fantasy Nation will hold it against him. He has missed two games each of the last two years and played banged up most of last year. However, the Bucs have improved their offensive line this offseason. He is ranked 20th on Football Guys as of today. He finished the 19th best RB his rookie year though he ranked much worse last year. If he stays healthy (there's your risk) he will easily post his best season behind an improved O line and be worth a mid to high RB2 selection.

*Bombers pointed out the fact that Ronnie and Carnell always seem to be taken too high in our leagues. Well, that's very true, but we also play fantasy football with people who live in Alabama and/or Auburn fans, the alma matter of both backs. Point being - beware the homer effect and don't get caught up taking your favorite players too high.