Rex Grossman, better than Hasselbeck?

I am forecasting the QBs currently. It's not a precise science because who knows how many yards to add to or subtract from a QB's projected stats if he loses his stud LT, for example, but it's obvious you should lower his projections by some amount. (Alas, poor Eli, we knew thee somewhat well. 'Tis a shame thy club forceth thee to play without Luke Petitgout.)

One surprise: Rex Grossman will have a better statistical year than Matt Hasselbeck.

Hasselbeck is still getting credit for 2003, I believe. I've seen him ranked in the preseason top 10 more than once already, which is ridiculous. His highest TD total is 26 in 2003, then 24 in 2005, then 22 in 2004 then 18 (last year). He would have thrown 24 TDs if he kept pace over a healthy 16 games last year (and had his highest INT total at 20).


Barring an outlying year happening again, 24 TDs is the best you can expect from Hasselbeck. His yardage totals hover around 3400. He loses Darrell Jackson and Jerramy Stevens and replaces them with Deion 'never had a 1000 yard season' Branch and Marcus '35 year old' Pollard who lost his starting job last year in Detroit! To Dan Campbell? I think 3300 and 22 TDs is a generous forecast for Hasselbeck.

Rex Grossman, in his first full year as starter, threw 3200 yards and 23 TDs with 20 INTs. They're working on the youngster's mechanics to reduce INTs and boost receptions - in short, he's maturing. He returns his WRs and TE (Desmond Clark had 626 yards and 6 TDs last year for you value hawks out there.) and has a shiny new first round TE from Miami to try out. 3400 yards and 24 TDs with a lower INT total is not at all unreasonable for Grossman to acheive. That puts him 14 fantasy points ahead of Hasselbeck.

The Mustard: Don't get too excited about Grossman as your secret weapon on draft day. He'll still have a couple abysmal games. He had four games with no TDs and three or four INTs last year. Four. But overall his performances should start to be more consistent. He's a bit of a gamble, but has upside and is definitely worth a QB2 slot in the hopes he suddenly becomes QB1 material next year.

As for Hasselbeck, pump him up to the rest of your league, forward the lists that have him in the top 10 and let them take a middle-of-the-road QB too high on draft day. You want him as QB2 - a secure reserve to fall back on in case your stud goes down.

Eli Manning... well, he's losing Tiki, they're moving a guard over to left tackle and we haven't exactly seen him persevere through adversity yet. I'm probably not drafting him. I wonder who he'll be playing for next year.

Oh, and don't be too sure that Desmond Clark will be a draft day steal. The Bears grabbed Miami TE Greg Olsen in the first round draft this year.