Larry Johnson Knows The End Is Near

From the Kansas City Star:

OK, are you prepared for a long holdout?

“I’m prepared,” Johnson said matter-of-factly. “They (my agent and father) got me saving money. I’m hustling to get more money to put in the bank. They already started setting aside different accounts, if that would have to happen. They’re already telling me to be cautious about how I spend, where I go and stuff like that. To make sure that if it goes down like that, then I’ve got to be able to pace myself so I won’t be in trouble.”

There was much to discuss. Larry is on the books to make $1.7 million this season, a paltry sum for a fifth-year player with his resume. Speculation has centered on Johnson seeking a contract that falls between the deals given LaDainian Tomlinson ($21 million in guarantees) and Peyton Manning ($35 million in guarantees).


LJ knows the time may never be better to ask for a fat contract. Not only did he rush for the second most yards and TDs last year (Behind LT, interestingly enough. How can you demand more $ than a better player? Anyway...) but KC should know they need to count on someone while Brodie 'Sack Puppet' Croyle learns how to be a starting QB. There is also the fact that his LT left last year, bringing his YPC down to 4.3 from 5.2 the year before AND his LG has retired this year. His YPC might dip into the high 3s while his touches go down. Preseason coachspeak has LJ getting 100 fewer carries.

Most importantly, LJ might be aware of the trend of RBs that exceed 370 rushes. In short, they fall apart the next year. Backs from Eric Dickerson and Terrell Davis to Ricky Williams and Jamal Anderson can attest to this trend. Most miss four or more games the following year and all had fewer carries. The only exception is Eric Dickerson in '83 and '84, though Dickerson fell prey to the trend in '86 and '87. I'll thank Doug Farrar and his article in my shiny new Beckett Fantasy magazine for this data.

The Mustard: From hold out threats, to the coaches saying they're going to spell him, to the statistical probability that Larry Johnson will miss games and certainly suffer loss of production, you simply have to lower his fantasy value and you might want to consider trading him if you're in a keeper league. You can't not pick him if he falls to about 5th or 6th, but feel comfortable taking LT, Steven Jackson and Frank Gore first. Good luck figuring out who to draft in the four spot, I might have to go with Shaun Alexander, although there are backs out there with more upside.