Wednesday, June 6, 2007

Greener Fields

Trent Green is now in Miami where it appears the Fins want him to be the starting QB. Until last year, Green had three consecutive 4000 yard seasons to finish second in passing yards each of those years. He did this with, uh, a few warm bodies at wide receiver and a fellow named Gonzalez at TE.

So what will he do in Miami? First, he has to rid himself of the Culpepper spectre and along with the rest of the world I expect the team will cut or trade Culpepper in short order, but I would like to see it before I make Trent Green my fantasy hope for next year. Second, you have to give some of the credit for Green's success to the system. He has had the benefit of an awesome front line and a ton of pass attempts, averaging well over 500 attempts from 2003-2005, ranking him from first to sixth in attempts. Miami doesn't throw the ball as often and their line can't protect near as well as KC's. Chris Chambers and Marty Booker are upgrades over any receivers in KC.

The Mustard: Value Trent Green as a gamble with upside. If your league thinks he is going to throw 4000 yards and 25 TDs, let someone else have him. He might, but there's reasons to suspect he won't - Culpepper, OL, an unknown TE (I'm thinking David Martin), and Cam Cameron's offense, which usually ranks in the low 20s in pass attempts. Oh yeah, there's the little matter of whether he'll be the QB he was before or after he got his bell rung last year.

Culpepper - a gamble. If he lands in the right spot and he's healthy...

Ronnie Brown - He's no LT and his OL is not San Diego's, but Cameron's offense has to have something to do with LT's success. Bump up Ronnie a notch or two.

Chris Chambers and Marty Booker - With Green as an upgrade over anything they've seen in forever, bump them up a notch or two.

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